Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Stochastic

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1 Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Stochastic Optimization i John R. Birge The University of Chicago Booth School of Business Joint work with Nicholas Polson, Chicago Booth. JRBirge U Florida, Nov

2 Themes Dynamic stochastic optimization models face the curse of dimensionality Randomization can overcome some dimensionality effects With sufficient symmetry, the results can be quite effective Keys are conditioning properly on outcomes, appropriate re-sampling and split sampling, and uses of Gaussian mixtures JRBirge U Florida, Nov

3 Basic problem Outline Problems of estimation Particle filters and sequential methods for simulation Optimization by slice sampling Dynamic Gaussian problems Extensions to Gaussian mixtures JRBirge U Florida, Nov

4 General Problem: Find a set of controls, u t, t =0,,..., T, to T min E[ X 1 f t (x t+1,u t )] u t U t A t ;x t+1 =g t (x t,u t ) t t t; t+1 g t ( t, t) where A t is Σ t -measurable (nonanticipative), U t represents the possibility of additional constraints on the controls, g t represents state dynamics, f t represents the cost of the current action and next state transition. t=00 Challenges: Rapid expansion of states in dimension of x t in each period, Exponential growth of trees over time. JRBirge U Florida, Nov

5 First Problem: What is x t? Example: hidden Markov model Example: We begin with inventory x 0 (which may be uncertain) We make observations y 1,,y T based on reported sales and new inputs What is the distribution of actual inventory x t at any time t? JRBirge U Florida, Nov

6 Bayesian Interpretation t ti Suppose a distribution on x 0 : f(x 0 ) Assume some transition: p(x t x t-1 ) Observations: q(y t x t ) Goal: find P(x t y 1,,y t ( y T )) Idea: Use Bayes Rule to find the conditional probability: P(x t y t )=P(x t,y t )/P(y t ) Π s q(y s x s)p(x s x s-1)f(x 0) JRBirge U Florida, Nov

7 Particle Methods Idea: Keep a limited number (N) of particles in each period Propagate forward to obtain new points Re-sample (re-weight) backwards to get consistent weights Re-balance if weights are low References: Gordon, Salmond, Smith (1993), Doucet (2008) JRBirge U Florida, Nov

8 General Processes If the observation and transition functions, q and p are quite general, then P(x y t t ) may not be available analytically (E.g., no sales if stocked out, maximum limit, bulky demand) d) Alternatives: Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Particle methods JRBirge U Florida, Nov

9 Sequential Importance Resampling (SIR) Method 1. Propagate. Drawx t+1,j,j =1,...,N from f(x t+1,j x t,j ). 2. Re-weight. Updateweights,ŵ t,j,j =1,...,N,toŵ t+1,j = for j =1,...,N. w t,j g(y t+1 x t+1 ) P N j=1 ŵt,jg(y t+1 x t+1 ) 3. Re-sample. If a re-sampling condition is satisfied, draw N new samples x 0 t+1,j,j =1,...,N from x t+1,j,j =1,...,N with probability distribution given by ŵ t+1,j,, j =1,,..., N; ; let x t+1,j = x 0 t+1,j and ŵ t+1,j =1/N/ for j =1,...,N. JRBirge U Florida, Nov

10 Tractable Case: LQG Linear, quadratic Gaussian (LQG) Model Implications: All of the distributions are normal Can derive analytical formulas (Kalman filter): y t =Hx t + v t ; x t =F x t-1 + u t ; v~n(0,q); u~n(o,r) Iterations: w t = y t -Hx t ; S=HP H T +R; K=P HTS -1 ; x t =x t +Kw t P =(I-KH)P ; x t =Fx t-1 ; P =FP F T +Q JRBirge RMS Phoenix, October

11 Kalman Prediction Inventory over 10 periods: -Actual (*) - Observed (+) Kalman estimate: x t ~ N(x t,p t ) Here: x 10 ~ N(13.8,0.62) JRBirge U Florida, Nov

12 Comparison to MCMC/Particle Filter Idea: construct a sample distribution that fits the data using only information about one-step transitions Goal: maintain a constant number of samples across time instead of explosively growing tree Can it work? Why? JRBirge U Florida, Nov

13 Method Structure Re-sample: Propagate x 1 w 1 w t+1 t1,x1 t t x 2 w 2 2 t w t+1 t2, x 2 t y t x N w N w t+1 tn, x N t t JRBirge U Florida, Nov

14 Cum. Results N=50 Compare to Kalman Cumulative JRBirge U Florida, Nov

15 Particle Frequency N=50 Particle (+) Kalman (*) JRBirge U Florida, Nov

16 Other Uses of Particles Particle filtering: i finding x t from y t =(y 1,,y t ) Particle smoothing: finding x t from y T =(y 1,,y T ) Particle learning: (Polson et al.) Find parameters θ t at the same time to explain the model. Simulation JRBirge U Florida, Nov

17 Extensions to Optimization Problem: find x to Pincus (1968): enough to sample from: min x f(x)subject to g(x) 0 π κ κ( (x) exp{ κ(f(x))} with constraints (e.g., Geman/Geman (1985)) : π κ,λ( (x) exp { κ (f(x) + λ κ g(x))} Extension: Augment with latent variables (λ, ω) thenwecanwrite π κ,λ (x) exp{ κ(f(x) { + λ κ g(x))} } = e ax E ω {e x2 2 ω }e bx E λ {e x2 2 λ } where the parameters (a, b) depend on (κ, λ κ ) and the functional forms of (f(x),g(x)). JRBirge U Florida, Nov

18 Basic Optimization via Simulation Pincus results: Model: min F(x) Create a distribution Pλ( λ (x) exp(-λ F(x)) ()) Then: lim * λ E Pλ (x) = x JRBirge U Florida, Nov

19 Markov Chain Simulation From x t to x t+1 Sample over exp(-λ F(μ x t +(1-μ) x t+1 ) ) Choose directions i to obtain mixing i in the region JRBirge U Florida, Nov

20 Example Rosenbrock function: φ(x =(x 1,x 2 )) = (1 x 1 ) (x 2 x 2 1) 2, which h has a global l minimum i at x = (1, 1). Specification for f: x t = {u if v e κ(φ(u)/φ(xt 1)) ; x t 1 1 otherwise,, } where u U([ 4, 4] 2 ), a uniform distribution over [ 4, 4] [ 4, 4], and v U([0, 1]), a standard uniform draw. Note: corresponds to the Metropolis-Hastings method of Markov Chain Monte Carlo using the distribution proportional to e κφ(x) for the acceptance criterion. JRBirge U Florida, Nov

21 Test for Rosenbrock T=5000 iterations N=500 replications Re-sample when: Effective Sample Size<250 κ=2, 10, 100 JRBirge U Florida, Nov

22 Rosenbrock Graphs κ= JRBirge U Florida, Nov

23 Other Examples: Rastigrin JRBirge U Florida, Nov

24 Himmelblau JRBirge U Florida, Nov

25 Shubert JRBirge U Florida, Nov

26 Combine Particles and Simulation Suppose N particles are used Consider a 2-stage problem f(x,ξ) = c(x) + Q(x,y,ξ) Distribution ib ti on x, y i, ξ: ξ P(x,y 1, y N,ξ) Π i=1n (c(x)+q(x,y i,ξ i )) Result: E P (x) x * JRBirge U Florida, Nov

27 Implementation Propagation forward on y s: q( ξ j x 1 ) {c(x)+q(ξ ξ j, y j, x)} p( ξ j ) where y j =argmin(c(x) + Q( ξ j, y j, x)) p( x ξξ 1,y 1,, ξ N y N ) j=1n {c(x) + Q(ξ j, y j, x) }p( ξ j ) The particles concentrate the distribution on x* as in the deterministic optimization. JRBirge U Florida, Nov

28 Example From B/Louveaux, Chapter 1 (Farmer): JRBirge U Florida, Nov

29 Dynamic Models General Idea: Create a distribution over decision variables and random variables Use MCMC to sample with sufficient number of particles or annealing parameter marginal mean on optimum Extension for dynamics: Keep constant sample particle numbers Convergence in fixed number of particles per stage? JRBirge U Florida, Nov

30 Example: Linear-Quadratic Gaussian All distributions are available in closed form x t =Ax t-1 +B t u t-1 +v t All normal distributions with risk-sensitive objective: -log E(exp(-(θ/2)(x 2T Qx 2 +u 1T Ru 1 ))) where u 1 is control lin the first period Note: Equivalent to robust formulation Now, all can be found in closed form JRBirge U Florida, Nov

31 Mean of u: m u 1 m = L u 1 1(θ) x 1, Results for LQG where L 1 is the result from the Kalman filter Variance of u: V u (N) where (N) 0 as N V u 1 m (θ) u * u as θ where u 1* is the two-stage risk-neutral solution. JRBirge U Florida, Nov

32 Extensions to T Stages Can derive S θ t recursively to show that: p(x t-1 t-1 t x,u )=K exp(-(1/2) (1/2) ( s=1 t-1 (x tt Q s x s +u st R s u s )+x tt S t θ x t ) + (x t -Ax t-1 -Bu t-1 ) T V t-1 (x t -Ax t-1 -Bu t-1 )) For particle methods, j=1 N: Each x tj drawn consistently from this distribution JRBirge U Florida, Nov

33 w t1,x t 1 u 1 t w t2, x t 2 u 2 t. w tn, x N t u N t General Method Structure Propogate x t+1 1 x 2 t+1... x t+1 N Re-sample: w t1, x 1 t u 1 t w t2, x 2 t u 2. u t w tn, x t N N N u N t JRBirge U Florida, Nov

34 General Result If the propagation step is unbiased, then E(u * 1 ) u 1 The unbiased result is possible in LQG from the recursive structure. Harder to obtain in more general systems (without additional i future sampling) JRBirge U Florida, Nov

35 Two-Stage: Compare Direct MC Low Risk Aversion High Risk Aversion JRBirge U Florida, Nov

36 Three Stage Example JRBirge U Florida, Nov

37 Generalizing Objectives Direct: risk-sensitive exponential utility: exp(-θ Q(x,y,ξ)) - Q quadratic Objective: e -θ y - d E θ λ [exp((-θ 2 /2λ j )(y j d) 2 )] where λ ~ Exp(2) Also, use: E[ e -θ y - d ] 1 + θ y-d + O(1) JRBirge U Florida, Nov

38 Further Generalizations ations Use objective approximations that preserve normal forms Extend LQG-like results to this general framework Find other frameworks where unbiased future samples are available Obtain sensitivity results on bias from imperfect future sampling Use optimization i to pick ML instead JRBirge U Florida, Nov

39 Conclusions Techniques from MCMC can be used effectively for optimizing to reduce dimension effects Results work well in situations with sufficient symmetry Keys are to effectively use re-sampling, split (and slice) sampling, and latent variables JRBirge U Florida, Nov

40 Other Questions to Consider How can learning and parameter estimation be combined with optimization? What is the range of problems that can be approached in this manner? What are the best uses of optimization technology as part of this process? JRBirge U Florida, Nov

41 Thank you! Questions? JRBirge U Florida, Nov

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