Multiple Regression Analysis. Part III. Multiple Regression Analysis

Transcription

1 Part III Multiple Regression Analysis As of Sep 26, 2017

2 1 Multiple Regression Analysis Estimation Matrix form Goodness-of-Fit R-square Adjusted R-square Expected values of the OLS estimators Irrelevant variables in a regression Omitted variable bias Multicollinearity Variances of misspecified models Estimating error variance σ 2 u Standard error of ˆβ k The Gauss-Markov Theorem

3 The general linear regression with k explanatory variables is just an extension of the simple regression as follows Because y = β 0 + β 1 x β k x k + u. (1) y x j = β j (2) j = 1,..., k, coefficient β j indicates the marginal effect of variable x j, and indicates the amount y is expected to change as x j changes by one unit and other variables are kept constant (ceteris paribus).

4 Multiple regression opens up several additional options to enrich analysis and make modeling more realistic compared to the simple regression.

5 Example 3.1: Consider the consumption function C = f (Y ), where Y is income. Suppose the assumption is that as incomes grow the marginal propensity to consume decreases. In simple regression we could dry to fit a level-log model or log-log model. One possibility also could be β 1 = β 1l + β 1q Y, where according to our hypothesis β 1q < 0. Thus the consumption function becomes C = β 0 + (β 1l + β 1q Y )Y + u = β 0 + β 1l Y + β 1q Y 2 + u This is a multiple regression model with x 1 = Y and x 2 = Y 2.

6 This simple example demonstrates that we can meaningfully enrich simple regression analysis (even though we have essentially only two variables, C and Y ) and at the same time get a meaningful interpretation to the above polynomial model. Technically, considering the simple regression C = β 0 + β 1 Y + v, the extension C = β 0 + β il Y + β 1q Y 2 + u means that we have extracted the quadratic term Y 2 out from the error term v of the simple regression.

7 Estimation 1 Multiple Regression Analysis Estimation Matrix form Goodness-of-Fit R-square Adjusted R-square Expected values of the OLS estimators Irrelevant variables in a regression Omitted variable bias Multicollinearity Variances of misspecified models Estimating error variance σ 2 u Standard error of ˆβ k The Gauss-Markov Theorem

8 Estimation In order to estimate the model we replace the classical assumption 4 by 4. The explanatory variables are in mathematical sense linearly independent. That is no column in the data matrix X (see below) is a linear combination of the other columns. The key assumption (Assumption 5) in terms of the conditional expectation becomes E[u x 1,..., x k ] = 0. (3)

9 Estimation Given observations (y i, x i1,..., x ik ), i = 1,..., n (n = the number of observations), the estimation method again is the OLS, which produces estimates ˆβ 0, ˆβ 1,..., ˆβ k by minimizing n (y i β 0 β 1 x i1 β k x ik ) 2 (4) i=1 with respect to the parameters. Again the first order solution is to set the (k + 1) partial derivatives equal to zero. The solution is straightforward although the explicit form of the estimators become complicated.

10 Estimation 1 Multiple Regression Analysis Estimation Matrix form Goodness-of-Fit R-square Adjusted R-square Expected values of the OLS estimators Irrelevant variables in a regression Omitted variable bias Multicollinearity Variances of misspecified models Estimating error variance σ 2 u Standard error of ˆβ k The Gauss-Markov Theorem

11 Estimation Using matrix algebra simplifies considerably the notations in multiple regression. Denote the observation vector on y as where the prime denotes transposition. y = (y 1,..., y n ), (5) In the same manner denote the data matrix on x-variables enhanced with ones in the first column as an n (k + 1) matrix 1 x 11 x 12 x 1k 1 x 21 x 22 x 2k X =...., (6) 1 x n1 x n2 x nk where k < n (the number of observations, n, is larger than the number of x-variables, k).

12 Estimation Then we can present the whole set of regression equations for the sample y 1 = β 0 + β 1 x β k x 1k + u 1 y 2 = β 0 + β 1 x β k x 2k + u 2 in the matrix form as y 1 y 2 =.. y n or shortly where. y n = β 0 + β 1 x n1 + + β k x nk + u n 1 x 11 x 12 x 1k 1 x 21 x 22 x 2k... 1 x n1 x n2 x nk β 0 β 1 β 2. β k + u 1 u 2. u n (7) (8) y = Xβ + u, (9) β = (β 0, β 1,..., β k )

13 Estimation The normal equations for the first order conditions of the minimization of (4) in matrix form are simply X Xˆβ = X y (10) which gives the explicit solution for the OLS estimator of β as where ˆβ = ( ˆβ 0, ˆβ 1,..., ˆβ k ). The fitted model is i = 1,..., n. ˆβ = (X X) 1 X y, (11) ŷ i = ˆβ 0 + ˆβ 1 x i1 + + ˆβ k x ik, (12) Remark 3.1: For example, if you fit the simple regression ỹ = β 0 + β 1 x 1, where β 0 and β 1 are the OLS estimators, and fit a multiple regression ŷ = ˆβ 0 + ˆβ 1 x 1 + ˆβ 2 x 2 then generally β 1 ˆβ 1 unless ˆβ 2 = 0, or x 1 and x 2 are uncorrelated.

14 Estimation Example 3.2: Consider the hourly wage example. enhance the model as log(w) = β 0 + β 1 x 1 + β 2 x 2 + β 3 x 3, (13) where w = average hourly earnings, x 1 = years of education (educ), x 2 = years of labor market experience (exper), and x 3 = years with the current employer (tenure). Dependent Variable: LOG(WAGE) Method: Least Squares Sample: Included observations: 526 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. C EDUC EXPER TENURE R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)

15 Goodness-of-Fit 1 Multiple Regression Analysis Estimation Matrix form Goodness-of-Fit R-square Adjusted R-square Expected values of the OLS estimators Irrelevant variables in a regression Omitted variable bias Multicollinearity Variances of misspecified models Estimating error variance σ 2 u Standard error of ˆβ k The Gauss-Markov Theorem

16 Goodness-of-Fit Again in the same manner as with the simple regression we have or where n n n (y i ȳ) 2 = (ŷ i ȳ) 2 + (y i ŷ i ) 2 (14) i=1 i=1 i=1 SST = SSE + SSR, (15) ŷ i = ˆβ 0 + ˆβ 1 x i1 + + ˆβ k x ik. (16)

17 Goodness-of-Fit 1 Multiple Regression Analysis Estimation Matrix form Goodness-of-Fit R-square Adjusted R-square Expected values of the OLS estimators Irrelevant variables in a regression Omitted variable bias Multicollinearity Variances of misspecified models Estimating error variance σ 2 u Standard error of ˆβ k The Gauss-Markov Theorem

18 Goodness-of-Fit R 2 = SSE SST = 1 SSR SST. (17) Again as in the case of the simple regression, R 2 can be shown to be the squared correlation coefficient between the actual y i and fitted ŷ i. This correlation is called the multiple correlation R = (yi ȳ)(ŷ i ŷ) (yi ȳ) 2. (18) (ŷi ŷ) 2 Remark 3.2: ŷ = ȳ. Remark 3.3: R 2 never decreases when an explanatory variable is added to the model.

19 Goodness-of-Fit 1 Multiple Regression Analysis Estimation Matrix form Goodness-of-Fit R-square Adjusted R-square Expected values of the OLS estimators Irrelevant variables in a regression Omitted variable bias Multicollinearity Variances of misspecified models Estimating error variance σ 2 u Standard error of ˆβ k The Gauss-Markov Theorem

20 Goodness-of-Fit where s 2 u = 1 n k 1 R 2 = 1 s2 u sy 2, (19) n (y i ŷ i ) 2 = i=1 1 n k 1 n ûi 2 (20) i=1 is an estimator of the error variance σ 2 u = var[u i ].

21 Expected values of the OLS estimators 1 Multiple Regression Analysis Estimation Matrix form Goodness-of-Fit R-square Adjusted R-square Expected values of the OLS estimators Irrelevant variables in a regression Omitted variable bias Multicollinearity Variances of misspecified models Estimating error variance σ 2 u Standard error of ˆβ k The Gauss-Markov Theorem

22 Expected values of the OLS estimators Under the classical assumptions 1 5 (with assumption 5 updated to multiple regression) we can show that the estimators of the regression coefficients are unbiased. That is Theorem 3.1: Given observations on the x-variables [ ] E ˆβ j = β j (21)

23 Expected values of the OLS estimators Using matrix notations, the proof of Theorem 3.1 is pretty straightforward. To do this write ˆβ = (X X) 1 X y = (X X) 1 X (Xβ + u) = (X X) 1 X Xβ + (X X) 1 X u (22) = β + (X X) 1 X u. Given X, the expected value of ˆβ is ] E[ˆβ = β + (X X) 1 X E[u] = β (23) because by Assumption 1 E[u] = 0. Thus the OLS estimators of the regression coefficients are unbiased.

24 Expected values of the OLS estimators Remark 3.4: If z = (z 1,..., z k ) is a random vector, then E[z] = (E[z 1 ],..., E[z n ]). That is the expected value of a vector is a vector whose components are the individual expected values.

25 Expected values of the OLS estimators 1 Multiple Regression Analysis Estimation Matrix form Goodness-of-Fit R-square Adjusted R-square Expected values of the OLS estimators Irrelevant variables in a regression Omitted variable bias Multicollinearity Variances of misspecified models Estimating error variance σ 2 u Standard error of ˆβ k The Gauss-Markov Theorem

26 Expected values of the OLS estimators Suppose the correct model is but we estimate the model as y = β 0 + β 1 x 1 + u (24) y = β 0 + β 1 x 1 + β 2 x 2 + u. (25) Thus, β 2 = 0 in reality. The OLS estimation results yield ŷ = ˆβ 0 + ˆβ 1 x 1 + ˆβ 2 x 2 (26) [ ] [ ] By Theorem 3.1 E ˆβ j = β j, thus in particular E ˆβ 2 = β 2 = 0, implying that inclusion of extra variables to a regression does not bias the results. However, as will be seen later, they decrease accuracy of estimation by increasing variance of the OLS estimates.

27 Expected values of the OLS estimators 1 Multiple Regression Analysis Estimation Matrix form Goodness-of-Fit R-square Adjusted R-square Expected values of the OLS estimators Irrelevant variables in a regression Omitted variable bias Multicollinearity Variances of misspecified models Estimating error variance σ 2 u Standard error of ˆβ k The Gauss-Markov Theorem

28 Expected values of the OLS estimators Suppose now as an example that the correct model is but we misspecify the model as y = β 0 + β 1 x 1 + β 2 x 2 + u, (27) y = β 0 + β 1 x 1 + v, (28) where the omitted variable is embedded into the residual term v = β 2 x 2 + u. OLS estimator for β 1 for specification (28)is β 1 = (xi1 x 1 )y i (xi1 x 1 ) 2. (29)

29 Expected values of the OLS estimators From Equation (2.38) we have n β 1 = β 1 + a i v i, (30) i=1 where a i = (x i1 x 1 ) (xi1 x 1 ) 2. (31)

30 Expected values of the OLS estimators Thus because E[v i ] = E[β 2 x i2 + u i ] = β 2 x i2 [ ] E β1 = β 1 + a i E[v i ] = β 1 + a i β 2 x i2 (32) = β 1 + β 2 (xi1 x 1 )x i2 (xi1 x 1 ) 2 i.e., [ ] (xi1 x 1 )x i2 E β 1 = β 1 + β 2 (xi1 x 1 ) 2, (33) implying that β 1 is biased for β 1 unless x 1 and x 2 are uncorrelated (or β 2 = 0). This is called the omitted variable bias.

31 Expected values of the OLS estimators The direction of the omitted variable bias is as follows: corr[x 1, x 2 ] > 0 corr[x 1, x 2 ] < 0 β 2 > 0 positive bias negative bias β 2 < 0 negative bias positive bias

32 1 Multiple Regression Analysis Estimation Matrix form Goodness-of-Fit R-square Adjusted R-square Expected values of the OLS estimators Irrelevant variables in a regression Omitted variable bias Multicollinearity Variances of misspecified models Estimating error variance σ 2 u Standard error of ˆβ k The Gauss-Markov Theorem

33 Write the regression model y i = β 0 + β 1 x i1 + + β k x ik + u i (34) i = 1,..., n in the matrix form y = Xβ + u. (35) Then we can write the OLS estimators compactly as ˆβ = (X X) 1 X y. (36)

34 Under the classical assumption 1 5, and assuming X fixed we can show that the variance-covariance matrix β is ] cov[ˆβ = (X X) 1 σu. 2 (37) Variances of the individual coefficients are obtained form the main diagonal of the matrix, and can be shown to be of the form [ ] var ˆβ j = σ 2 u (1 R 2 j ) n i=1 (x ij x j ) 2, (38) j = 1,..., k, where Rj 2 is the R-square when regressing x j on the other explanatory variables and the constant term.

35 1 Multiple Regression Analysis Estimation Matrix form Goodness-of-Fit R-square Adjusted R-square Expected values of the OLS estimators Irrelevant variables in a regression Omitted variable bias Multicollinearity Variances of misspecified models Estimating error variance σ 2 u Standard error of ˆβ k The Gauss-Markov Theorem

36 In terms of linear algebra, we say that vectors are linearly independent if x 1, x 2,..., x k a 1 x a k x k = 0 holds only if a 1 = = a k = 0. Otherwise x 1,..., x k are linearly dependent. In such a case some a l 0 and we can write x l = c 1 x c l 1 x l 1 + c l+1 x l c k x k, where c j = a j /a l that is x l can be represented as a linear combination of the other variables.

37 In statistics the multiple correlation measures the degree of linear dependence. If the variables are perfectly linearly dependent. That is, if for example, x j is a linear combination of other variables, the multiple correlation R j = 1. A perfect linear dependence is rare between random variables. However, particularly between macro economic variables dependencies are often high.

38 [ ] From the variance equation (38) we see that var ˆβ j as R 2 j 1. That is, the more the explanatory variables are linearly dependent the larger the variance becomes. This implies that the coefficient estimates become increasingly unstable. High (but not perfect) correlation between two or more explanatory variables is called multicollinearity.

39 Symptoms of multicollinearity: 1 High correlations between explanatory variables. 2 R 2 is relatively high, but the coefficient estimates tend to be insignificant (see the section of hypothesis testing) 3 Some of the coefficients are of wrong sign and some coefficients are at the same time unreasonably large. 4 Coefficient estimates change much from one model alternative to another.

40 Example 3.3: Variable E t denotes expenditure costs in a sample of Toyota Mark II cars at time point t, M t denotes the mileage and A t age. Consider model alternatives: Model A: Model B: Model C: E t = α 0 + α 1 A t + u 1t E t = β 0 + β 1 M t + u 2t E t = γ 0 + γ 1 M t + γ 2 A t + u 3t

41 Estimation results: (t-values in parentheses) Variable Malli A Malli B Malli C Constant (-5.98) (-5.91) (0.06) Age (22.16) (9.58) Miles (18.27) (-7.06) df R ˆσ Findings: Apriori, coefficients α 1, β 1, γ 1, and γ 2 should be positive. However, ˆγ 2 = (!!?), but ˆβ 1 = Correlation r M,A = 0.996!

42 Remedies: In the collinearity problem the question is the there is not enough information to reliably identify each variables contribution as an explanatory variable in the model. Thus in order to alleviate the problem: 1 Use non-sample information if available to impose restrictions between coefficients. 2 Increase the sample size if possible. 3 Drop the most collinear (on the base of R 2 j ) variables. 4 If a linear combination (usually a sum) of the most collinear variables is meaningful, replace the collinear variables by the linear combination.

43 Remark: Multicollinearity is not always harmful. If an explanatory variable is not correlated with the rest of the explanatory variables multicollinearity of these variables (provided that it is not perfect) does not harm the variance of the slope coefficient estimator of the uncorrelated explanatory variable. If x j is not correlated with any of the other predictors, Rj 2 = 0 and hence, as is seen from equation (38), the correlation factor (1 Rj 2 ) drops out [ ] from its slope coefficient estimator variance var ˆβj. Another case where multicollinearity (again excluding the perfect case) is not a problem is if we are purely interested in the predictions of the model. Predictions are affected essentially only by the usefulness of the available information.

44 Exploring further (Wooldridge 5e, p.93) Consider a model explaining final exam score by class attendance (number of classes attended). To control for student abilities and efforts outside the classroom, additional explanatory variables like cumulative GPA, SAT score, and a measure of high school performance are included. Someone says, You cannot learn much from this exercise because cumulative GPA, SAT score, and high school performance are likely to be highly collinear. What should be your response?

45 1 Multiple Regression Analysis Estimation Matrix form Goodness-of-Fit R-square Adjusted R-square Expected values of the OLS estimators Irrelevant variables in a regression Omitted variable bias Multicollinearity Variances of misspecified models Estimating error variance σ 2 u Standard error of ˆβ k The Gauss-Markov Theorem

46 Consider again as in (27) the regression model y = β 0 + β 1 x 1 + β 2 x 2 + u. (39) Suppose the following models are estimated by OLS ŷ = ˆβ 0 + ˆβ 1 x 1 + ˆβ 2 x 2 (40) and Then and [ ] var ˆβ 1 = ỹ = β 0 + β 1 x 1. (41) [ ] var β 1 = σ 2 u (1 r 2 12 ) (x i1 x 1 ) 2 (42) σ 2 u (xi1 x 1 ) 2, (43) where r 12 is the sample correlation between x 1 and x 2.

47 [ ] [ ] Thus var β1 var ˆβ1, and the inequality is strict if r In summary (assuming r 12 0): 1 If β 2 0, then β 1 is biased, ˆβ [ ] [ ] 1 is unbiased, and var β1 < var ˆβ1 2 If β 2 = 0, then both β 1 and ˆβ [ ] [ ] 1 are unbiased, but var β1 < var ˆβ1

48 1 Multiple Regression Analysis Estimation Matrix form Goodness-of-Fit R-square Adjusted R-square Expected values of the OLS estimators Irrelevant variables in a regression Omitted variable bias Multicollinearity Variances of misspecified models Estimating error variance σ 2 u Standard error of ˆβ k The Gauss-Markov Theorem

49 An unbiased estimator of the error variance var[u] = σ 2 u is where ˆσ 2 u = 1 n k 1 n ûi 2, (44) i=1 û i = y i ˆβ 0 ˆβ 1 x i1 ˆβ k u ik. (45) The term n k 1 in (43) is the degrees of freedom (df). It can be shown that i.e., ˆσ 2 u is unbiased estimator of σ 2 u. E [ˆσ 2 u] = σ 2 u, (46) ˆσ u is called the standard error of the regression.

50 1 Multiple Regression Analysis Estimation Matrix form Goodness-of-Fit R-square Adjusted R-square Expected values of the OLS estimators Irrelevant variables in a regression Omitted variable bias Multicollinearity Variances of misspecified models Estimating error variance σ 2 u Standard error of ˆβ k The Gauss-Markov Theorem

51 Standard deviation of ˆβ j is the square root of (38), i.e. σ ˆβj = σ u var[β j ] = (1 Rj 2) (47) (x ij x j ) 2 Substituting σ u by its estimate ˆσ u = ˆσ 2 u gives the standard error of ˆβ j se( ˆβ j ) = ˆσ u (1 R 2 j ) (x ij x j ) 2. (48)

52 The Gauss-Markov Theorem 1 Multiple Regression Analysis Estimation Matrix form Goodness-of-Fit R-square Adjusted R-square Expected values of the OLS estimators Irrelevant variables in a regression Omitted variable bias Multicollinearity Variances of misspecified models Estimating error variance σ 2 u Standard error of ˆβ k The Gauss-Markov Theorem

53 The Gauss-Markov Theorem Theorem 3.2: Under the classical assumptions 1 5 ˆβ 0, ˆβ 1,... ˆβ k are the best linear unbiased estimators (BLUEs) of β 0, β 1,... β k, respectively. BLUE: Best: The variance of the OLS estimator is smallest among all linear unbiased estimators of β j Linear: ˆβ j = n i=1 w ijy i. [ ] Unbiased: E ˆβ j = β j.