Regression Analysis: Exploring relationships between variables. Stat 251

Transcription

1 Regression Analysis: Exploring relationships between variables Stat 251

2 Introduction Objective of regression analysis is to explore the relationship between two (or more) variables so that information can be acquired about one of them through knowing values of the other(s) When x and y are deterministically related, it means that once we are told the value of x, y is completely specified (by an equation, or what we call a model; think of functions from pre-calculus) As an example, suppose we want to rent a van for a day and the rental cost is $25.00 plus $0.30 per mile driven Let x = # miles driven and y = the rental charge Then the model for this situation is y = x Drive the van 100 miles and the cost is y = 25+.3(100) = $55 We call the relationship analyses regression, least-squares regression, ordinary least-squares regression, and more

3 Visual Exploration (graphs) The graph of choice to visually examine the relationship between x and y is called a scatterplot When we determine the linear relationship between x and y we can add in a regression line

4 Terms and Concepts I We call the relationship analyses regression, or least-squares regression Prediction Reference to future values Estimation or Explanation Reference to current or past events Both fall under blanket term prediction The simplest deterministic mathematical relationship is a linear relationship (think y = mx + b)

5 Terms and Concepts II The model we will use is : is the y-intercept (the b part in y = mx + b) is the slope of the line (the m part in y = mx + b) is an error term (the difference b/w the predicted y- value and the observed y-value) The regression equation we will use is:

6 Assumptions of Regression * Means that the expected value (mean) of the residuals (errors) is 0 * Means that the variance is constant for all values of x * Means that the residuals are independent * Means that the residuals should be approximately normal with mean = 0 and constant variance (5. underlying assumption is that there is in fact a linear relationship between x and y)

7 Formulas /n /n

8 Example I Given are the dataset and summary statistics for a dataset that investigates the relationship between the amount of hours spent studying for the Math SAT and the score earned. Find the equation of the least squares regression line To graph the line, choose the smallest x value and the largest x value to plug into the equation for the two points needed to graph Use the equation to predict y (find y-hat) when x = 2 x = 15

9 Terms and Concepts III The slope can be interpreted as the change in y due to x Meaning that for every unit increase in x, y will change by the amount of the slope (positive or negative depending on the sign of the slope) The intercept can be interpreted as the value of y when x = 0 A lot of the time, this may not make sense within the context of the dataset (the equation may give a value of y that may be impossible to occur when x = 0; more especially when there is not a value of x = 0 in the original dataset)

10 How Strong is the Relationship? There is a measure of the strength and direction of the linear relationship between x and y (when both x and y are quantitative) Called correlation Notation ρ, called rho is the population parameter I know it looks like a p but it should as it s where our language got the p from r, just called r is the sample statistic Properties of correlation Cannot be used to measure qualitative (categorical) variables like gender and marital status Is unitless meaning it has no units of measurement associated with it changing units of measurement does not change r -1 r 1 If r is -1, the linear relationship is strong (perfect in this case) and negative (the direction of the slope) If r is 1, the linear relationship is strong (perfect in this case) and positive (the direction of the slope) If r is 0, then that means there is no linear relationship r makes no distinction between x and y

11 Correlation

12 More About Correlation In addition to all the other things we have learned about r, the most important is when we square r (and convert to a %) R 2 = r 2 X 100 to obtain a % R 2 is called the Coefficient of Determination It explains the % variation that can be explained by the linear relationship between x and y The higher it is, the better our model is (meaning it fits the data) 0% R 2 100% It is used in model selection to determine if the model we chose is the best fit for the data

13 Example II Given are the dataset and summary statistics for a dataset Calculate r and R 2

14 Tests and CI s There are several tests associated with regression, all doing different things, while looking similar (but not exactly alike) Tests: Test and CI for parameter estimates (slope and intercept) Test for overall goodness-of-fit (does the data fit the model to some degree?) Requires hefty calculations (statistical software output is easier) CI for mean response Involves use of the regression line equation PI (Prediction Interval) for a single response Involves use of the regression line equation

15 Tests and CI s for β 1 Slope CI: where Test: Hypotheses (2-tail tests only) Ho: β 1 = 0 Ha: β 1 0

16 Tests and CI s for β 0 Intercept CI: where Test: Hypotheses (2-tail tests only) Ho: β 0 = 0 Ha: β 0 0

17 Overall Goodness-of-Fit (GoF) Test You will not be calculating this test by hand, rather you will read the output from R, a statistical software package, and interpret the results Ho: The linear regression model is not appropriate Ha: The linear regression model is appropriate Look at the F test statistic and pvalue to determine whether or not the linear regression model is appropriate In simple linear regression (SLR), the F test for the model is the same as the t- test for the slope (the results will be the same) The main difference will be the values of the test statistic but the pvalues will be the same F and t distributions are related as follows: Reject Ho iff pvalue α

18 Test and CI for ρ (correlation) Test only The CI is a bit on the complex side (feasible but complex) so we will only worry about the test t = r n 2 1 R 2 df = n 2 Rejection Region is the same as usual Hypotheses: H 0 : ρ = 0 H a : ρ 0

19 The equation values are found here: y = Understanding R Output The lm() function in R for linear model Std errors (se) Function to display the results Test statistics Coefficients Intercept Slope R 2 (X100)% pvalues for 2-tail tests of β 0 and β 1 (Ho: =0; Ha: 0) df of t-tests for β 0 and β 1 F test statistic df1 and df2 for F test pvalue for F test

20 Checking Assumptions There are diagnostic graphs we will check to make sure the assumptions of regression analysis are met Listed below are the assumptions along with the graphs to check and a description of what to look for

21 Diagnostics I The residuals should have a mean = 0. That means that roughly, the histogram should be centered around 0. This one has the highest bar right around 0, so this assumption has been met

22 Diagnostics II Constant variance Decreasing variance Increasing variance

23 Diagnostics III Is a bit more complex than the other assumptions Independence of errors is important because if the errors are dependent, then we have issues with reliability So no checking this calculation, assume it s met

24 Diagnostics IV Histogram is centered at 0 and normal Points are mostly along the y = x line so it s normal

25 (Diagnostics V linear relationship)