Diploma Macro Paper 2

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1 Diploma Macro Papr 2 Montary Macroconomics Lctur 6 Aggrgat supply and putting AD and AS togthr Mark Hays 1

2 Exognous: M, G, T, i*, π Goods markt KX and IS (Y, C, I) Mony markt (LM) (i, Y) Labour markt (P, Y) AS IS-LM (i, Y, C, I) AD Phillips Curv (π,u) AD-AS (P, i, Y, C, I) Forign xchang markt (NX, ) IS*-LM* (, Y, C, NX) AD* AD*-AS (P,, Y, C, NX)

3 Exognous: M, G, T, i*, π Goods markt KX and IS (Y, C, I) Mony markt (LM) (i, Y) Labour markt (P, Y) AS IS-LM (i, Y, C, I) AD Phillips Curv (π,u) AD-AS (P, i, Y, C, I) Forign xchang markt (NX, ) IS*-LM* (, Y, C, NX) AD* AD*-AS (P,, Y, C, NX)

4 Driving th AD* curv Why AD* curv has ngativ slop: P (M/P) LM shifts lft ε NX Y ε ε 2 ε 1 P P 2 P 1 LM*(P 2 ) LM*(P 1 ) Y 2 Y 1 Y 2 Y 1 IS* Y AD* Y 4

5 Mundll-Flming and th AD* curv Prviously P was fixd, now w ar changing it. NX is a function of ε, not. W now writ th M-F quations as: : ε :, This mans that th diagram dos not show us th q m for but w do not nd this xplicit for AD* 5

6 Th ffct of an incras in dmand in th short run and th long run A = initial (full mploymnt) quilibrium P LRAS B = nw short-run q m aftr a boom in confidnc P 2 P 1 A C B SRAS 2 SRAS 1 AD 2 C = long-run quilibrium Y Y 2 AD 1 Y 6

7 Kyns s original AD-AS modl D xpctd incom AS AD D * Effctiv dmand mploymnt, N Equilibrium mploymnt 7

8 A post-kynsian AD-AS modl in P, Y spac P AD LRAS SRAS Y _ Y Y 8

9 P AD LRAS P SRAS _ Y Y 9

10 Thr modls of aggrgat supply 1. Th imprfct-information modl 2. Th sticky-pric modl 3. Th sticky-wag modl All thr modls imply: agg. output natural rat of output Y = Y + α ( P P ) a positiv paramtr th actual pric lvl th xpctd pric lvl 10

11 Thr modls of aggrgat supply 1. Th imprfct-information modl 2. Th sticky-pric modl 3. Th sticky-wag modl All thr modls imply: Dviations in output a positiv paramtr Dviations in pric lvl from xpctation 11

12 Th imprfct-information modl Assumptions: All wags and prics ar prfctly flxibl, all markts clar Each supplir producs on good, consums many goods. Supply of ach good dpnds on its rlativ pric: th nominal pric of th good dividd by th ovrall pric lvl. 12

13 Th imprfct-information modl All supplirs know th nominal pric of th good thy produc, but do not know th gnral pric lvl. Supplir dos not know gnral pric lvl at th tim of th production dcision, so uss th xpctd pric lvl, P. Suppos P riss but P dos not. Supplir thinks it is thir own rlativ pric which has risn, so producs mor. With many producrs thinking this way, Y will ris whnvr P riss abov P. 13

14 Th sticky-pric modl Assumption: Firms st thir own prics (monopolistic comptition). Rasons for sticky prics: long-trm contracts btwn firms and customrs mnu costs firms not wishing to annoy customrs with frqunt pric changs 14

15 Th sticky-pric modl An individual firm s dsird pric is whr a > 0. p = P + a ( Y Y ) Suppos two typs of firms: firms with flxibl prics, st prics as abov firms with sticky prics, must st thir pric bfor thy know how P and Y will turn out: p = P + a ( Y Y ) 15

16 Th sticky-pric modl p = P + a ( Y Y ) Assum sticky pric firms xpct that output will qual its natural rat. Thn, p = P To driv th aggrgat supply curv, w first find an xprssion for th ovrall pric lvl. Lt s dnot th fraction of firms with sticky prics. Thn, w can writ th ovrall pric lvl as 16

17 Th sticky-pric modl P = s P + (1 s)[ P + a( Y Y )] pric st by sticky pric firms pric st by flxibl pric firms (1 s) a P = P + ( Y Y ) s Y = Y + α ( P P ), whr α = s ( 1 s ) a 17

18 Th sticky-wag modl Assums that firms and workrs ngotiat contracts and fix th mony wag bfor thy know what th pric lvl will turn out to b. Th mony wag thy st is th product of a targt ral wag and th xpctd pric lvl: W = ω P W P = ω P P Targt ral wag 18

19 19

20 Th sticky-wag modl If it turns out that P = P P > P W P P = ω P thn Unmploymnt and output ar at thir natural rats. Ral wag is lss than its targt, so firms hir mor workrs and output riss abov its natural rat. P < P Ral wag xcds its targt, so firms hir fwr workrs and output falls blow its natural rat. 20

21 Chart 4.6 Ral product wags, labour markt slack and productivity Sourcs: ONS (including th Labour Forc Survy) and Bank calculations. (a) (b) (c) Hadlin unmploymnt rat lss th cntral Bank staff stimat of th mdium-trm quilibrium unmploymnt rat. For dtails, s th box on pags of th August 2013 Rport. Privat sctor AWE total pay dflatd by th markt sctor gross valu addd dflator. Markt sctor output pr workr. 21

22 Summary & implications P LRAS Y = Y + α ( P P ) P > P P = P P < P Y SRAS Y Each of th thr modls of agg. supply imply th rlationship summarizd by th SRAS curv & quation. 22

23 Summary & implications Suppos a positiv AD shock movs output abov its natural rat and P abov th lvl popl had xpctd. Ovr tim, P riss, SRAS shifts up, P 2 = and output rturns to its natural rat. P SRAS quation: = P 3 3 P 2 P = P P 1 1 Y = 3 Y = Y + P P LRAS Y1 = Y α ( ) SRAS 2 Y 2 SRAS 1 AD 2 AD 1 Y 23

24 Exognous: M, G, T, i*, π Goods markt KX and IS (Y, C, I) Mony markt (LM) (i, Y) Labour markt (P, Y) AS IS-LM (i, Y, C, I) AD Phillips Curv (π,u) AD-AS (P, i, Y, C, I) Forign xchang markt (NX, ) IS*-LM* (, Y, C, NX) AD* AD*-AS (P,, Y, C, NX) 24

25 Inflation, Unmploymnt, and th Phillips Curv Th Phillips curv stats that π dpnds on xpctd inflation, π. cyclical unmploymnt: th dviation of th actual rat of unmploymnt from th natural rat supply shocks, ν (Grk lttr nu ). n π = π β ( u u ) + ν whr β > 0 is an xognous constant. 25

26 Th Phillips Curv and SRAS SRAS Phillips curv / SRAS curv: Dviations in output ar rlatd to unxpctd movmnts in th pric lvl. Phillips curv: Dviations in unmploymnt ar rlatd to unxpctd movmnts in th inflation rat. 26

27 27

28 28

29 29

30 Exognous: M, G, T, i*, π Goods markt KX and IS (Y, C, I) Mony markt (LM) (i, Y) Labour markt (P, Y) AS IS-LM (i, Y, C, I) AD Phillips Curv (π,u) AD-AS (P, i, Y, C, I) Forign xchang markt (NX, ) IS*-LM* (, Y, C, NX) AD* AD*-AS (P,, Y, C, NX) 30

31 Nxt trm Policy ffctivnss and inflation targting Origins of th North Atlantic and Euro criss 31

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