Eddie s Crayons * 24 Hour FX from London. Eddie Tofpik Head of Foreign Exchange. Close of Business 1st September 2017
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1 Close of Business 1st September 2017 Client Release 3rd September 2017 General Release 6th September 2017 Head of Foreign Exchange 24 Hour FX from London CONTACT T TR IM: ADM FX ADM I esto Se i es I te aio al Li ited is autho ised a d egulated The Fi a ial Co du t Autho it. Me e of The Lo do Sto k E ha ge. egiste ed oi e: th Floo Mille iu B idge House, La eth Hill, Lo do EC V TT. egiste ed i E gla d No. a su sidia of A he Da iels Midla d Co pa. isk Wa i g: I est e ts i E uiies, CFDs, Futu es, Opio s, De i ai es a d Fo eig E ha ge a lu tuate i alue, i esto s should the efo e e a a e that the a ot ealise the i iial a ou t i ested, a d i deed a i u addiio al lia iliies. These I est e ts a e tail a o e a e age i a ial isk of loss, a d i esto s should the efo e a efull o side hethe thei i a ial i u sta es a d i est e t e pe ie e pe it the to i est a d, if e essa, seek the ad i e of a i depe de t Fi a ial Ad iso. So e se i es des i ed a e ot a aila le to e tai usto e s due to egulato o st ai ts eithe i the U ited Ki gdo o else he e. ADM I esto Se i es I te aio al Li ited.
2 EURUSD TREND UP Last i e I outli ed th ee opio s fo the a ket. These e e e t ed a ou d the illia t Ti es of the Ma Ap Bullish A d e s Pit hfo k hi h has ee so efe i e i gi i g suppo t a d esista e this ea as ell as the Bullish a gle of ata k of the a ket. The i st as use the Middle Ti e u e tl. as suppo t & o e highe. The se o d as We ould tur arou d the Middle Ti e as support a lau hi g oard for a tr a k up. a d the thi d as to head do th ough the Lo e Ti e u e tl. to e e e t lo le els. I d suggested the st as doa le, the d likel a d the d u likel. The d, fo hi h I g ateful, tu ed out to e the ase ith the a ket stead i g a ou d the Middle Ti e efo e t i g highe a eek ago. Looki g fo a d, the high last eek looks suspi ious as it as a I de isi e Doji C oss a d ould possi l e ega ded as a Bea ish Shooi g Sta. This led to the eake i g a kets post the high plus last F ida s Bea ish E guli g Pate a d also a possi le Bea ish Shooi g Sta Pate. It looks like e a sta t the e t eek ith a othe possi le ate pt lo e. To ei fo e this I suggest looki g at the e e t a io, e e had e pa si e a ges this past eek o so he eas e e had a o a ges the eeks efo e. The a ket a just e gei g o fo ta le o e. ut I ot su e. Ne e theless, the suppo t u de. e t ed o the Aug high, hi h I e sill let o the Dail Cha t a o e at., looks good a d I d look to see a slo i g o a headi g lo e. I d like to d a ou ate io to o e ite I ote last i e- I reall do ot ha e a resista e o the upside apart fro the re e t high at., the d a i Upper Ti e of the AP. Apart fro this there are so e i or resista e le els at. &. a d othi g of ote ill e get to.. This is sill the ase a d e e o l had o e eal test to a ds. hi h pete ed out at.. Due to auious atu e, I d sa that if e e e goi g to go highe the e ought to ha e do e it this eek o a e e t eek. Othe ise I d e o e ed fo a test of the Lo e Ti e. Suppo t is u e tl.,.,..,..,.,. &... esista e is u tl at.,. d a i,.,.,.,.. d a i &.. We a e so e fa f o a pote ial T e d ha ge that as to go Neut al e d eed loses u de. & Bea ish it d e elo.. Ho e e, a ea te T e d ha ge ould happe ith o se ui e loses u de.. Ne e theless, the ullet poi t a o e sta s i l Bullish.
3 GBPUSD TREND UP? I d opped the ullet poi t a o e i to ildl Bullish last i e e ause I as o e ed a out th ee thi gs The Ke e e sal Do o the da of the high at., the failu e to lose o se ui el o e the ke % Fi of at. a d losi g elo the talis a i. le el. Well the p o ed to e good po te ts fo the o i g o th of Aug as e asi all fell th ough all so ts of suppo t ill the a ket stopped eathlessl at the see i gl i o. % Fi at. et it as of the i po ta t hole of o e though this as teleg aphed ith a ouple of I de isi e Dojis ahead of hali g a ked o the Dail Cha t a o e. Si e the e e see the a ket t a d e oup the Bullish i e i e ut it has ee spo adi. If ou ll e all f o last i e, I ote e ha e a hole a d of support Fi, SP & MA ased et ee... Pu hi g through that irst i e ith o se ui e loses ould e a ig ask ut if the arket does so the it ould put the arket i to Neutral. O l o se ui e loses elo the o o of the % Fi at. & the Lo g MA urre tl. ould tur the arket Bearish a d that does t look likel at the o e t.. So e e sill o the edge of Neut al a d fa f o. o the Lo g MA u e tl.. With e e t o se ui e loses elo the Mediu MA u e tl. a d e e last F ida s a ket to i g ith it, I thi k it likel e a e e te i g fo at least pa t, a Neut al phase... ut I ill ot o e the ullet poi t a o e just et. All this does t ea that I o t push it i to Neut al e t i e it just ea s that gi e he e e a e, I thi k it app op iate to sill keep it ildl Bullish. So hat s e t? Well, if the a ket is to fu the et the Bullish side the it ust soo ha e o se ui e loses o e the ke e e t % Fi at.. This ould ie i i el ith the e Bullish Cha el I e d a f o Ma -to-date hi h ou a see a o e. Co se ui e loses o e that hi h is ot a ig ask a d the Cha el is sill alid a d e o i ue ildl Bullish. If e e e to ha e o se ui e loses elo the e e t lo at. the the o i aio of the ke Fi s at. &. plus the isi g Lo g MA a e i the f a e a d e a go full Bea ish i that ase. O ala e, suggest o e fu the t upside a d if su essful the the p e ious highs e ko. If ot the likel e a t u de the Lo g MA. Fi all, the e is o e featu e I ust d a ou ate io upo hi h ould ha ge the hole outlook. The e is o a Ke e e sal Do o eth Mo thl Cha t auio! Suppo t is u e tl at.,. d a i,.,..,. d a i,.,.. &. d a i. esista e is at.,.,.,..,.,.,.,.,. &..
4 EURGBP TREND UP? As e io ed last i e the Bullish Ju Jul A dre s Pit hfork sill see s alid ut as e are eari g the Upper Ti e urre tl. resista e the I d urge auio.. This p o ed to e a useful auio as the a ket g aduall o ed highe fo the i st & iddle po io of the o th s ua el et ee the Middle Ti e u e tl. as suppo t a d the Uppe Ti e u e tl. as esista e. This ha ged i the last eek a d half o so ith a ate pt highe hi h pete ed out ate a fai l su essful t at a old Sep high at.. We the had a g eat I de isi e Doji C oss/sta a d the e e t da e had a Bea ish Ope & Close Lo g Bla k Ma u ozo hi h has led us a fe da s late to he e e e i ished. Goi g fo a d, the uesio ill e hethe p i es hold i iiall at the Middle Ti e a d if ot, ill the the hold at the Lo e Ti e u e tl.. It is too ea l to sa if these ill happe ut the i iial sig s f o late last eek a e o i ous fo the Bulls. We e had t o sessio s si e the high ith Bea ish Lo g Bla k Ma u ozos. Ne e theless, I ll hold of ha gi g the ullet poi t a o e ill e see hat happe s as p i es t lo e. I a espe iall i te ested as to hethe the o i aio et ee the isi g Lo e Ti e & the e e t % Fi at. ould hold a fu the t ies lo e. At this o e t I i ded to thi k the ould ut does that ea that e t a k up? I af aid I thi k it a do. The easo is that e a e so e lose to the st Ce tu high at. that its a io as a at a to has, is & ill likel see to e good. He e, ith all MAs poi i g highe a d despite the e e e t Bea ish ess, I st o gl i ded to o e the ullet poi t i to full Bullish despite ea lie state e t. If o the othe had e ha e o se ui e loses elo the Fi at. the I d e o side taki g the uesio a k of a d e e looki g at Neut al despite ei g so e fa a a f o the Mediu MA[ u e tl. ]. Suppo t is u e tl at.,. d a i,.,.,.,.,.,. d a i,.. &.. esista e is u e tl at.,.,. d a i,.,.,.,. &..
5 USDJPY TREND? The i st thi g that ju ps out o the Dail Cha t a o e is the Ke e e sal Up last Tuesda la elled Suspe t as all K s o a JPY pai i g should e. The se o d o e su tle thi g is that last eek as a K Up o the Weekl Cha t. Agai Suspe t fo the sa e easo. Ho e e, the e see s to e a i o the e goi g o he e. Last o th I o ed the ullet poi t a o e i to Neut al e ause of the o e ha g of esista e et ee.. a d the ke % Fi at.. Oddl e ough gi e the e e e t lo, the lose-o - lose is ithi odd i s hi h I suppose is a jusii aio ut this is eside the poi t! The poi t is that despite the e e e t lo, e e ot had o se ui e loses, i fa t ot a loses, outside those a ges. He e, the ullet poi t a o e sta s the sa e e ause e e sill aught possi l also uilisi g the % Fi of the No Ja o e at. as a at a to a d the Sep -to-date Upt e d u e tl. as a addiio al esou e. Suppo t is u e tl at.,.,. d a i,.,.,. &.. esista e is at.,.,.,.,..,.. &. d a i.
6 AUDUSD TREND? F o last i e What a e e pe t? If it does follo the Bearish s e ario the the irst test ill e the ear % Fi support at. follo ed the o erall o e s % Fi at.. If e lose elo the later the e ha e retur ed to a ediu to lo ger ter Neutral state fro a i ediate short ter Bearish state.. Well, e e tai l a aged the i st pa t last o th ith a fall to the % Fi at.. Ho e e, that is he e e de iated a d p i es did ot e e a age a si gle lose elo the le el p efe i g to t a k up though so e hat half-hea ted. Si e id- o th e e go e side a s to a litle highe. I had o the tu d a so e ea l Bullish Pit hfo ks. Ho e e, the A d e s o e has ee egated a d the S hif is suspe t as e e had o e o e elo the Lo e Ti e. This has also st ied a idea de eloped du i g the o th, the e a ts ou a see a o e i the i les, of pote iall olaile a d/o a ket di e io e fo i g o ha gi g da s due to the C osso e of Ti es. I e let the o just i ase a d the a e the th & th. I po ta t da s pote iall! So he e o? The e o e has ee as p e iousl stated half-hea ted! The esista e is sill the e et ee... The ke suppo t is sill the e the % Fi at. a d e a e a o e all MAs though do o th-o - o th. I a & feel o liged to o e the ullet poi t a o e i to Neut al ith pote ial fo a o e fu the should the topside e o e o e. I ill likel take of the SP e t i e u less it p o es useful of ou se a d the i les like ise. Suppo t is u e tl at.,. d a i,.,.,. &.. esista e is u e tl at.,.,..,. d a i,.,. &..
7 USDINR TREND DOWN? M idea p oposiio ed last i e of the hole of Ap -to-date ei g a e La ge Half a Hesitaio sill holds. We a e up o the o th ut the all id- o th did ot a age to o e o e the ke e e t % Fi esista e at. e e t a o e just the le el o e a d e e losed o e. We o ha e th ee out of fou MAs lose to the a ket, suggesi g a o solidaio alo g ith the Lo g MA app oa hi g f o a o e as ell. These th ee out of fou MAs also poi t do a ds. It ould see e a e u e tl aught et ee the suppo t of the ea l Aug lo s a d su se ue t fo e lo s st et hi g do to. efo e e get a gap. O the upside the o i aio of the Aug high at., the p e iousl e io ed % Fi, the Mediu MA u e tl. as des e di g esista e a d e e pe haps the e e t elated. % Fi at. all see to e appi g the pote ial the e. The t e d as a e see the MAs is sill lo e ut ith a uesio a k o the ullet poi t a o e. Suppo t is u e tl at.,.,.,.,. &.. esista e is u e tl at.,.,.,. d a i,.,. &..
8 USDBRL TREND? Last o th I ote I a ertai that e ill ot o i ue ei g Bearish u less this a d.. possi l. is ot dealt ith. Upside, e d eed to ha e o se ui e loses o er the o i aio of Lo g MA urre tl. a d Fi a d.. to tur it Bullish. He e, I e de ided to o e the ullet poi t a o e i to eutral to see ho thi gs ork out.. Guess hat? Neithe the suppo t o the esista e ha e ee dealt ith. I iiall the a ket t ied highe a d e e a ged to ea h the.. esista e. Ho e e, this as o l fo o e da a d the p i es headed a k do. He e agai, e ha e ot a aged to eak do a d sho di e io as the de li e has halted su. ith last F ida ha i g a Bullish Ha e Pate o the Dail Cha t a o e. The e is so e hope fo the Bea s, the Dead C oss of the Sho t/mediu MA do th ough the Lo g MA ut this is too ea l to o i o ei fo e a o e. It looks like e a e stu k ithi the a ges e io ed a o e fo pote iall a othe o th though the Dead C oss does gi e a i e i e to a e late o t lo e. Suppo t is u e tl at.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,. d a i &.. esista e is u e tl at. d a i,.,.,.,. d a i,. &... Bullet poi t sta s i Neut al.
9 BITCOIN TREND UP Despite fea s of a pull a k last i e, the a ket e-e e gised itself ith a slo sta t highe ate a failed Ke e e sal Do ate pt t o da s ate last epo t. This a ied o ell u il the th he p i es tu ed lo e follo i g the fo k. The sta ilised a d the had a d a ai t lo e o the d that e ded ith a Ke e e sal Up a d e e e o e agai o i g highe. This pete ed out at the % P oje ted Fi of the id Aug o e at. ith a Ke e e sal Do. Ho e e, the e has ee li ited follo th ough so fa though it is o l o e sessio as su h et I ote the lo of Satu da s a io as i li e ith the high a k i id Aug hi h leads e to thi k that the suppo t u de eath ight e su sta ial. So he e o? Well, oth the Bullish A d e s & S hif Pit hfo ks ha e gi e good a ou t a d a e sill alid ut I d like to d a ou ate io to o e othe thi g. If e e e to o side the a io late Jul/ea l -to- id Aug as o e Leg of a Bull Flag a d the se o d leg sta i g at the oto of the dip o the th the e ha e a pote ial ta get just sho t of the e t % P oje ted Fi at.. This see s a easo a le pote ial Bullish s e a io. As fo a Bea ish s e a io ou d eed to see o se ui e loses elo the dip at. to e e o side that at this o e t. At this poi t I ould d a ou ate io to the osso e dates of the Ti es ut the a e uite steep a d I ould athe ou looked at the ou sel es a d ot take o d o the dates. Suppo t is u e tl at,,, d a i,,, &. esista e is at d a i,,,, &. Bullet poi t sta s full Bullish.
10 DEFINITIONS! In the commentary you will note immediately following the currency pair there s a bullet point indicating the TREND. To clarify the comments & notes for this point I ve prepared a short summary. T END UP - Any one or more of the following may occur! Market has turned upwards/risen & is likely to carry on, usually till at least the next Monthly Foreign Exchange Commentary. Moving Averages (MA s) are pointing higher or have either crossed, formed a Golden Cross or based out. Chart patterns & trendlines (Channel, Support, Andrew s Pitchfork, etc ) point higher. No appreciable resistance levels (Fibs, Historical, etc ) are noted. T END UP? - Any one or more of the following may occur! Market exhibiting signs of exhaustion after a recent rally. Prices may be achieving an upside/downside target level or approaching major/strong resistance. Market may have started/completing a rally/recovery and it may be looking indecisive/going sideways or it is too early to tell in the short, medium or long-term charts. Moving Averages (MA s) may point higher or have positive crosses but the picture is not conclusive. Some, but not all chart patterns & trendlines (Channel, Support, Andrew s Pitchfork, etc ) indicate higher. Appreciable resistance levels (Fibs, Historical, etc ) are noted close to the market. T END? - Any one or more of the following may occur! Market exhibiting neither a bias for a rally or a decline. Market is either nowhere near or alternatively caught in narrow bands of support/resistance. Moving Averages (MA s) point sideways & indicate no immediate likelihood of crossing. No strong chart patterns or trendlines evident. Sometimes I frankly haven t a clue! T END DOWN? - Any one or more of the following may occur! Market exhibiting signs of a recovery after a recent fall. Prices may be achieving an upside/downside target level or approaching major/strong support. Market may have started/completing a decline/fall and it may be looking indecisive/going sideways or it is too early to tell in the short, medium or long-term charts. Moving Averages (MA s) may point lower or have negative crosses but the picture is not T END DOWN - Any one or more of the following may occur! Market has turned down/fallen & is likely to carry on, usually till at least the next Monthly Foreign Exchange Commentary. Moving Averages (MA s) are pointing lower or have either crossed, formed a Dead Cross or topped out. Chart patterns & trendlines (Channel, Support, Andrew s Pitchfork, etc ) point lower. No appreciable support levels (Fibs, Historical, etc ) are noted. THE STORY OF s Crayons * This refers to a deep, long conversation I had another technician (and also a very dear friend) as to where exactly the neckline on a H+S Top on USDJPY should go to which he uttered in exasperation & seriousness the immortal words.... it depends how thick your crayon is!!! Thank you Lou we laughed till I started to hurt & it made my day!, Head of Foreign Exchange Member of the Society of Technical Analysts Member of ACI-UK Affiliate of The Market Technicians Association (U.S.A.) Member of Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI) ADM Investor Services International Ltd. operates a 24-hour FX trading desk as well as a Futures, CFD s & Equities service. For further details contact me! CONTACT eddie.tofpik@admisi.com fx.desk@admisi.com Dealer : ADML Twitter T (24 Hours) D IM : ADM FX ADM I esto Se i es I te aio al Li ited is autho ised a d egulated The Fi a ial Co du t Autho it. Me e of The Lo do Sto k E ha ge. egiste ed oi e: th Floo Mille iu B idge House, La eth Hill, Lo do EC V TT. egiste ed i E gla d No. a su sidia of A he Da iels Midla d Co pa. isk Wa i g: I est e ts i E uiies, CFDs, Futu es, Opio s, De i ai es a d Fo eig E ha ge a lu tuate i alue, i esto s should the efo e e a a e that the a ot ealise the i iial a ou t i ested, a d i deed a i u addiio al lia iliies. These I est e ts a e tail a o e a e age i a ial isk of loss, a d i esto s should the efo e a efull o side hethe thei i a ial i u sta es a d i est e t e pe ie e pe it the to i est a d, if e essa, seek the ad i e of a i depe de t Fi a ial Ad iso. So e se i es des i ed a e ot a aila le to e tai usto e s due to egulato o st ai ts eithe i the U ited Ki gdo o else he e. ADM I esto Se i es I te aio al Li ited.
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