Completely Randomized Design

Transcription

1 CHAPTER 4 Comletely Randomized Design 4.1 Descrition of the Design Chaters 1 to 3 introduced some basic concets and statistical tools that are used in exerimental design. In this and the following chaters, those designs that aear to have the greatest usefulness to researchers in the behavioral sciences, health sciences, and education are examined in detail. One of the simlest exerimental designs from the standoint of data analysis and assignment of subjects or exerimental units to treatment levels is the comletely randomized design. The design is denoted by the letters CR-, where CR stands for comletely randomized and is the number of levels of the treatment. The layout for a comletely randomized design with four treatment levels is shown in Figure A CR- design is aroriate for exeriments that meet, in addition to the general assumtions of analysis of variance summarized in Section 3.5, the following two conditions: 1. One treatment with treatment levels. The levels of the treatment can differ either quantitatively or qualitatively. When the exeriment contains only two treatment levels, the design is indistinguishable from the t test for indeendent-samles design that is described in Section... Random assignment of exerimental units to the treatment levels, with each exerimental unit designated to receive only one level. The number of exerimental units in each treatment level need not be equal, although this is desirable. According to Section 3.5, the F statistic is more robust to violation of some assumtions when the samle ns are equal. It is aarent that the comletely randomized design is alicable to a broad range of exerimental situations. As I discuss in Section., the design is one of the three building block designs that can be used by itself or in combination to form more comlex designs. An understanding of the comletely randomized design is fundamental to understanding a number of more comlex designs. 15

2 16 Exerimental Design Treat. Level De. Var. Grou 1 Subject 1 Subject Subject 5 a 1 a 1 a 1 Y 11 Y 1 Y 51 Y. 1 Grou Subject 1 Subject Subject 5 a a a Y 1 Y Y 5 Y. Grou 3 Subject 1 Subject Subject 5 a 3 a 3 a 3 Y 13 Y 3 Y 53 Y. 3 Grou 4 Subject 1 Subject Subject 5 a 4 a 4 a 4 Y 14 Y 4 Y 54 Y. 4 Figure Layout for a comletely randomized design (CR-4 design) with = 4 treatment levels denoted by a 1, a, a 3, and a 4. The subjects are randomly assigned to the treatment levels. The n = 5 subjects in Grou 1 receive treatment level a 1, those in Grou receive treatment level a, and so on. The deendent-variable means for the subjects who receive treatment levels a 1, a, a 3, and a 4 are denoted by Y 1, Y, Y 3, and Y 4, resectively. Exerimental Design Model for a CR- Design I describe the model equation for a comletely randomized design in Section. and the assumtions for the model in Sections 3.3 and 3.5. Here I elaborate on the assumtions for the fixed-effects model. 1. The model equation Y ij =μ+α j + i( j) (i = 1,..., n; j = 1,..., ) for a CR- design contains all of the sources of variation that affect observation Y ij for subject i in treatment level j.

3 CHAPTER 4 Comletely Randomized Design 17 μ is the grand mean, the mean of the oulation means, μ j. α j is the treatment effect for oulation j and is equal to μ j μ, the deviation of the grand mean from the jth oulation mean. i( j) is the error effect associated with Y ij and is equal to Y ij μ j. The error effect reresents effects unique to subject i, effects attributable to chance fluctuations in subject i s behavior, and any other effects that have not been controlled in other words, all effects not attributable to treatment level a j.. The exeriment contains all of the treatment levels, α j s, of interest. As a result, the treatment effects sum to zero, j= 1 α j = The error effect, i( j), is normally and indeendently distributed within each treatment oulation with mean equal to zero and variance equal to σ. This assum- tion is often abbreviated as i( j) is NID(0, σ ), where NID(0, σ ) denotes normally and indeendently distributed with mean = 0 and variance = σ. The fixed-effects model is the most commonly used model for a CR- design. The random-effects model in which the treatment levels are randomly samled from a oulation of P levels ( < P) is discussed in Section Exloratory Data Analysis The emhasis in this book is on confirmatory data analysis using samles to tell us something about the oulations from which they came and assessing the recision of our inferences concerning the oulations. But every confirmatory data analysis should be receded by an exloratory data analysis looking at data to see what they seem to say. Eyeballing data is an imortant first ste in any confirmatory data analysis. Such an exloration may uncover, for examle, susected data recording errors, assumtions that aear untenable, and unexected romising lines of investigation. Several exloratory techniques are described here. For in-deth coverage, the reader should refer to Tukey (1977) and Hoaglin, Mosteller, and Tukey (1991). Checking the Model Assumtions Suose that I am interested in the effects of slee derivation, treatment A, on hand-steadiness. The four levels of slee derivation of interest are 1, 18, 4, and 30 hours, which are denoted by a 1, a, a 3, and a 4, resectively. Suose that I have conducted an exeriment in which 3 subjects were randomly assigned to the four levels of slee derivation, with the restriction that 8 subjects were assigned to each level. The deendent variable is the number of times during a -minute interval that a stylus makes contact with the side of a half-inch hole. The layout for the design is similar to that shown in Figure The research hyothesis that led to the exeriment is based on the idea that slee derivation affects handsteadiness. A hyothetical set of data for the exeriment is shown in Table 4.-1(i). The

4 18 Exerimental Design Table 4.-1 Summary of Hand-Steadiness Data (i) Data Treatment Levels a 1 a a 3 a (ii) Descritive statistics a 1 a a 3 a 4 1 Hours 18 Hours 4 Hours 30 Hours Y. j σˆ j n Y = Y / n j ij i= 1 σ ˆ j = n n Yij i= 1 Yij i= 1 n n 1 descritive statistics in art (ii) suort the research hyothesis: that the samle means for the slee derivation conditions differ. In Section 4.1, I described the assumtions of the error effects: The i( j) s should be normally distributed, have equal variances, and be mutually indeendent. To determine whether the assumtions are tenable, it is helful to examine a lot of standardized residuals, denoted by z i( j). A residual (error effect) is given by ˆi( j) = Y ij Y j. Standardization is achieved by dividing the residuals by their standard deviation. For a comletely randomized design, the standard deviation of the residuals is σ ˆ z = SSWG /( N 1), where N = n n. The comutation of SSWG is illustrated in Section 4.3. A standardized residual for subject i in treatment level j is given by z =ˆ / σ ˆ = ( Y Y )/ SSWG /( N 1) i( j) i( j) z ij j

5 CHAPTER 4 Comletely Randomized Design 19 Table 4.- Residuals and Standardized Residuals for the Data in Table 4.-1 Treatment Levels a 1 a a 3 a 4 ˆi(1) z i(1) ˆi () z i() ˆi (3) z i(3) ˆi (4) z i (4) ˆ i( j) = Yij Y. j zi( j) = ˆ i( j) / SSWG /( N 1) SSWG is comuted in Table =ˆ i( j) / / (3 1) =ˆ i ( j )/ If the assumtions of the model are tenable, the standardized residuals should be normally and indeendently distributed with mean equal to 0 and variance equal to 1; z i( j) is NID(0, 1). Hence, to check on the model assumtion, one looks for deviations from atterns that would be exected of indeendent observations from a standard normal distribution. Residuals and standardized residuals for the data in Table 4.-1 are shown in Table 4.-. In Figure 4.-1(a), the standardized residuals in Table 4.- are dislayed in the form of frequency distributions. If the model assumtions are tenable, aroximately 68.3% of the standardized residuals should be between 1 and 1, aroximately 95.4% between and, and aroximately 99.7% between 3 and 3. Based on the residual lots, there is no reason to doubt the tenability of the normality and homogeneity of variance assumtions. Other rocedures for testing the hyothesis of homogeneity of the oulation variances are described in Section 3.5. Figure 4.-1(b) dislays a different kind of information. Here, the residuals are lotted against the order in which the hand-steadiness measurements were collected. If the indeendence assumtion is tenable, the standardized residuals should be randomly distributed around zero with no discernable attern. Nonindeendence is indicated if the z i( jk) s show a consistent downward or uward trend or they have the shae of a megahone. The indeendence assumtion aears to be satisfied for treatment levels a 1 through a 3. However,

6 130 Exerimental Design (a) 4 Treatment level a 1 a a 3 a z i(j) (b) Frequency Frequency Frequency Frequency Frequency distribution of standardized residuals Treatment level a 1 a a 3 a z i(j) Time order of measurements within each treatment level Figure 4.-1 (a) Frequency distributions of standardized residuals, zi( j) = ( Yij Y. j )/ SSWG /( N 1). (b) Plot of standardized residuals versus the order in which measurements within each treatment level were obtained.

7 CHAPTER 4 Comletely Randomized Design 131 the standardized residuals in treatment level a 4 increase as a function of the order in which the measurements were collected strong evidence that the indeendence assumtion is violated. A researcher would certainly want to review the data collection rocedures for this treatment level. Outliers Occasionally one encounters data with one or more observations that deviate markedly from other observations in the samle. Such observations are called outliers. In a standardized residual lot, they are observations for which z i( j) >.5. An examination of Figure 4.-1(a) reveals that there are no outliers. Box lots also are useful for detecting outliers and treatment oulations that are not symmetrical. Box lots are discussed in most introductory statistics books. When outliers occur, they call for detective work. A researcher must decide whether the residuals merely reresent extreme manifestations of the random variability inherent in data or are the result of deviations from rescribed exerimental rocedures, recording errors, equiment malfunctions, and so on. If they reflect the random variability inherent in data, they should be retained and rocessed in the same manner as the other observations. If some hysical exlanation for the outlier can be found, a researcher may (1) relace the observation with new data, () correct the observation if records ermit, or (3) reject the observation and Winsorize. Winsorization is described in Section 3.6. After erforming an exloratory data analysis and deciding that the assumtions of the model are tenable, the next ste is a confirmatory data analysis. 4.3 Comutational Examle for CR-4 Design The statistical hyotheses for the hand-steadiness data in Table 4.-1 are H 0 : μ 1 = μ = μ 3 = μ 4 or H 0 : α j = 0 for all j H 1 : μ j μ j for some j and j H 1 : α j 0 for some j The level of significance adoted is α =.05. Procedures for comuting the sums of squares used in testing the null hyothesis are illustrated in Table The AS Summary Table is so named because variation among the 3 scores reflects the effects of the treatment A and the subjects, denoted by S for subjects. The comutational scheme in arts (ii) and (iii) of the table uses the abbreviated symbols [AS], [A], and [Y] that were introduced in Section 3.. This abbreviated notation simlifies the resentation of the comutational formulas. An ANOVA table summarizing the results of the analysis is shown in Table The mean square (MS) in each row is obtained by dividing the sum of squares (SS) by the degrees of freedom (df) in its row. Recall from Section 3.3 that an MS is an estimator of a oulation variance and is given by SS MS =σ ˆ = df

8 13 Exerimental Design Table Comutational Procedures for a CR-4 Design (i) Data and notation [Y ij denotes a score for subject i in treatment level j; i = 1,..., n subjects (s i ); j = 1,..., levels of treatment A (a j ).] AS Summary Table Entry is Y ij a 1 a a 3 a n Yij = 4 i= (ii) Comutational symbols n Yij = = j= 1i= 1 n Yij j= 1i= 1 (134) = [ Y ] = = n (8)(4) n Yij = [ AS] = (3) + () + + (9) = j= 1i= 1 n Yij i= 1 (4) (8) (48) = [ A] = = j= 1 n (iii) Comutational formulas SSTO = [AS] [Y] = = SSBG = [A] [Y] = = SSWG = [AS] [A] = =

9 CHAPTER 4 Comletely Randomized Design 133 The F statistic is obtained by dividing the mean square in the first row by the mean square in the second row. This is indicated symbolically by 1. According to Aendix Table E.4, the value of F that cuts off the uer.05 region of the samling distribution for 3 and 8 degrees of freedom is F.05; 3, 8 =.95. Because the obtained F = 5.56 exceeds the table value, F > F.05; 3, 8, the null hyothesis is rejected. Table 4.3- ANOVA Table for CR-4 Design Source SS df MS F ˆω 1. Between grous (slee derivation levels) = Within grous (n 1) = Total n 1 = 31 It is customary to include in an ANOVA table the value associated with the F statistic and a measure of effect magnitude. The value for the F statistic was obtained from Microsoft s Excel FDIST function FDIST (x,deg_freedom1,deg_freedom) To illustrate, I relaced x with 5.56 (the value of the F statistic), deg_freedom1 with 3, and deg_freedom with 8 as follows FDIST (5.56,3,8) Excel returned the value of.004. The effect magnitude statistic, ω ˆ YA = 0.30, in Table 4.3- is discussed in Section 4.4. A decision to reject or not reject the null hyothesis should be based on the researcher s reselected level of significance,.05 in the examle. The inclusion of the value ermits readers to, in effect, set their own level of significance. In reorts of the results of an exeriment, a descritive summary of the data means, standard deviations, and erhas a grah should always recede the reorting of significance tests. For the slee derivation exeriment, the descritive statistics in Table 4.- 1(ii) rovide an adequate summary. The results of the F significance test can be resented either by means of a table like Table 4.3- or in the text. For simle designs like the comletely randomized design, it is customary to resent the results in the text. Using this form, the researcher might say, We can infer from the analysis of variance that the handsteadiness oulation means differ, F(3, 8) = 5.56, <.001, ω ˆ YA = Notice that the degrees of freedom for the F statistic are enclosed in arentheses, followed by the value of the F statistic, its value, and the measure of effect magnitude. If the

10 134 Exerimental Design exerimental design is comlex and requires reorting numerous F statistics, the Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association (American Psychological Association, 010,. 141) states that a tabular resentation can minimize the need for lengthy textual descritions. After the omnibus null hyothesis 1 is rejected, the next ste in the analysis is to decide which oulation means differ. Multile comarison rocedures are used for this urose and are described in Chater Measures of Strength of Association and Effect Size The imortance of distinguishing between statistical significance and ractical significance is discussed in Section.5. Statistical significance is concerned with whether an observed treatment effect is due to chance. Practical significance is concerned with whether an observed effect is large enough to be useful in the real world. As discussed in Section.5, trivial treatment effects can achieve statistical significance if enough subjects are included in an exeriment. Small values say,.01 or.001 are widely believed to indicate large treatment effects and, hence, ractical significance. This interretation of values is incorrect because values are affected by the size of the treatment effects as well as the size of the samle. A value of.05 for an exeriment with 6 subjects er grou may reflect larger treatment effects than a value of.0001 for an exeriment with 70 subjects er grou. Unfortunately, there is no measure of the ractical significance of research results. However, measures of effect magnitude can hel a researcher make this kind of assessment (Kirk, 003). Most measures of effect magnitude fall into one of two categories: (1) measures of effect size (tyically, standardized mean differences) and () measures of strength of association. I describe measures of strength of association first. Strength of Association The most widely used measures of strength of association in analysis of variance are omega squared, ω, introduced by William Hays (1994,. 408) for fixed treatment effects and the intraclass correlation, ρ I, for random treatment effects. For a comletely randomized design, both measures are defined as (4.4-1) σα α σ +σ where σ α is the variance of the treatment effects and σ is the variance of the error effects. ω and ρ I indicate the roortion of the oulation variance in the deendent variable that is accounted for by secifying the treatment-level classification, and thus they are identical in general meaning. Both ω and ρ I are measures of strength of association for a qualitative or quantitative indeendent variable and a quantitative deendent variable. 1 The omnibus null hyothesis states that all of the oulation means are equal.

11 CHAPTER 4 Comletely Randomized Design 135 α σ in equation (4.4-1) are generally unknown, but they can The arameters σ and be estimated from samle data. In Section 3.3, you learned that n α j= 1 E( MSBG) =σ + 1 j and E( MSWG) =σ for the fixed-effects model and EMSBG ( ) n α =σ + σ and E( MSWG) =σ for the random-effects model. It follows that unbiased estimators of by αˆ j j= 1 ˆ α 1 ( MSBG MSWG) = = σ and n σ α and MSWG =σˆ σ are given for the fixed-effects model and by 1 ( MSBG MSWG) = σ ˆ α and n MSWG =σˆ for the random-effects model. If the estimators for σ and σ are substituted in equation (4.4-1), the following formulas for ˆω and ˆρ I can be obtained with the aid of a little algebra: α SSBG ( 1) MSWG ω ˆ = SSTO + MSWG MSBG MSWG ρ ˆ I = MSBG + ( n 1) MSWG For the hand-steadiness data in Table 4.3-, (4 1).48 ω ˆ = = Thus, the four levels of slee derivation account for 30% of the variance in the handsteadiness scores. Not only is the association statistically significant, as is evident from the significant F statistic in Table 4.3-, but also the association is quite strong. Based on Cohen s (1988, ) classic work, the following guidelines are suggested for interreting strength of association: ω =.010 is a small association. ω =.059 is a medium association. ω =.138 or larger is a large association.

12 136 Exerimental Design When a samle omega squared is negative, the best estimate of the oulation value is 0. Sedlmeier and Gigerenzer (1989) and Cooer and Findley (198) reorted that the tyical strength of association in the journals that they examined was around.06 a medium association. Omega squared and the intraclass correlation also can be comuted from a knowledge of the F statistic, samle size in each treatment level, and number of treatment levels. The alternative formula for ˆω and the value of ˆω for the hand-steadiness data are ˆω = ( 1)( F 1) ( 1)( F 1) + n = (4 1)(5.56 1) (4 1)(5.56 1) + (8)(4) =.30 where F, n, and are obtained from Table If treatment A reresents random effects, the intraclass correlation can be comuted from F 1 ρ ˆ I = ( n 1) + F These formulas for ˆω and ˆρ I can be used to assess the ractical significance of ublished research where only the F statistic and degrees of freedom are rovided. The formulas for ˆω given earlier assume that the samle ns are equal. If the samle ns are not too different, Vaughan and Corballis (1969) have suggested the following formula for aroximating omega squared: SSBG ( 1) MSWG ω ˆ = SSBG + ( n 1) MSWG + MSWG where n is the mean of the samle ns. Omega squared and the intraclass correlation, like the F statistic, are omnibus (overall) statistics. Researchers generally are not as interested in this omnibus statistic as they are in knowing how much of the variance in the deendent variable is accounted for by the difference between selected treatment levels, say, the means for treatment levels a 1 and a. One degree-of-freedom omega-squared correlation measures that address this kind of question are discussed in Section 6.5. In interreting omega squared, it is imortant to remember that the treatment levels are selected a riori rather than by random samling as is the case for the intraclass correlation. The resence of a truncated range or the selection of extreme values of a quantitative indeendent variable can markedly affect the value of ˆω. Omega squared alies to the treatment levels in the exeriment; any generalization to levels not included in the exeriment is a lea of faith. Note also that ˆω and ˆρ I are comuted from the ratio of unbiased estimators; hence, they are biased estimators of the corresonding oulation arameters. In general, the ratio of two unbiased estimators is not itself an unbiased estimator. Carroll and Nordholm (1975) have shown that the degree of bias in ˆω is slight.

13 CHAPTER 4 Comletely Randomized Design 137 Other statistics such as R, coefficient of multile determination or eta squared ( ˆη ), and R also are used to measure the strength of association between the indeendent and deendent variables. The R statistic is given by SSBG R = SSTO and indicates the samle roortion of variance in the deendent variable that is accounted for by secifying the treatment-level classification. R tends to overestimate the oulation arameter. For the hand-steadiness data in Table 4.-1, R = / =.37. An adjustment due to Wherry (1931) can be alied to R to obtain a better estimate of the oulation arameter. The adjusted (shrunken) coefficient is denoted by R and is comuted from N 1 R = 1 (1 R ), where N = n 1 + n n. For the handsteadiness data, R = N.31. Effect Size A second aroach to assessing the ractical significance of research results is based on differences among means. In Section.5, I describe a measure oularized by Jacob Cohen (1988) called effect size and denoted by d. The effect-size formulas for one- and two-samle exeriments are, resectively, d = μ μ σ 0 and d = μ μ 1 σ In both formulas, a difference among means is exressed in units of the within-grous oulation standard deviation. This idea with modifications can be extended to the case in which there are three or more means: f = j = 1 ( μ μ) / j σ or f = α j = 1 σ j / A samle estimate of f for the hand-steadiness data in Table 4.3- is given by fˆ = αˆ j / j = 1 σˆ = = 0.65

14 138 Exerimental Design where αˆ j= 1 j = ( MSBG MSWG) = ( ) = n (8)(4) σ ˆ = MSWG =.48 Cohen (1988, ) suggested the following guidelines for interreting the measure of effect size: ˆf f =.10 is a small effect size. f =.5 is a medium effect size. f =.40 or larger is a large effect size. Based on Cohen s guidelines, the treatment effects for the slee derivation exeriment are classified as large effects. The same conclusion was reached using ˆω. In fact, the two indexes are related as follows: fˆ = ωˆ 1 ωˆ For a discussion of the merits of measures of strength of association and effect size, the reader is referred to Cumming (01), Henson (006), Huberty (00), and Kline (004). In summary, a significant F statistic for treatment effects in a comletely randomized design indicates that there is some association between the indeendent and deendent variables and that at least one treatment effect is not equal to zero. The ˆω and ˆρ I statistics estimate the oulation strength of the association between a qualitative or quantitative indeendent variable and a quantitative deendent variable. Cohen s ˆf and similar measures estimate the relative size of treatment effects. Both kinds of measures rovide imortant information that is not contained in a test of significance. When the results of significance tests are reorted, researchers should always include a measure of effect magnitude. 4.5 Power and the Determination of Samle Size Introduction to the Calculation of Power Power, denoted by 1 β, is the robability of rejecting a false null hyothesis. Knowledge of ower is useful for assessing the sensitivity of a statistical test and for determining the samle size to use. If the null hyothesis is true, then F = MSBG/MSWG is distributed as a central F distribution. The central F distribution deends on two arameters: ν 1 and ν, the degrees of freedom of the F statistic. F values that cut off the uer.5,.10,.05, and.01 ortions of the central F distribution are given in Aendix Table E.4. If the null

15 CHAPTER 4 Comletely Randomized Design 139 hyothesis is false, then F = MSBG/MSWG is distributed as a noncentral F distribution. This latter distribution is used in determining the ower of a test. The noncentral F distribution deends on three arameters: ν 1, ν, and a noncentrality arameter λ (Greek lambda), where λ= σ α j = 1 / j n The arameter λ is a measure of the degree to which the null hyothesis is false. The value of λ is determined by the size of the sum of squared treatment effects relative to σ / n. Tang (1938) reared charts that simlify the calculation of ower. Tang s charts, which are reroduced in Aendix Table E.1, are based on a function of the noncentrality arameter. To use the charts, the arameter φ (Greek hi), (4.5-1) λ φ= = α j = 1 σ j / / n is entered in the aroriate chart for ν 1 = 1 and ν = (n 1) degrees of freedom and a significance level of either.05 or.01. Calculation of Power Using Tang s Charts The calculation of ower is illustrated for the data summarized in Table In ractice, the arameters j= 1 α j and σ in equation (4.5-1) are unknown. However, as you learned in Section 3.3, the arameters can be estimated from samle data as follows: αˆ j= 1 j 1 = ( MSBG MSWG ) = and n σ ˆ = MSWG =.48 An estimate of φ is φ= ˆ αˆ j / j = 1 σˆ / n = / 8 = 1.85 with ν 1 = 1 = 3 and ν = (n 1) = 4(8 1) = 8. Aendix Table E.1 contains eight ower charts: a chart for ν 1 = 1,..., 8. Each chart contains ower curves for α =.05 and α =.01. Use the.05 curves because.05 is the level of significance adoted in the slee derivation exeriment. The value of ˆφ = 1.85 is located along the α =.05 baseline in the

16 140 Exerimental Design ν 1 = 3 chart. Extend an imaginary vertical line above ˆφ = 1.85 until it intersects a oint just to the right of the ν = 30 curve; the chart does not contain a ν = 8 curve. If you read across to the vertical axis, the ower of the ANOVA F test is found to be aroximately.83, which just exceeds the minimum accetable ower of.80. Cohen (1988, ) rovides more extensive tables for determining ower than those in Aendix E.1. His tables contain values for ν 1 = 1 through 6, 8, 10, 1, 15, and 4 and α =.10,.05, and.01. To use his tables, a researcher comutes Cohen s ˆf effect size. This effect size can be comuted from the noncentrality arameter, ˆλ, or Tang s ˆφ as follows: fˆ = λ ˆ / n =φ ˆ / n. Cohen s tables and those in Aendix E.1 are aroriate for fixed effects. Montgomery (009, ) gives tables for calculating ower for random effects. A lethora of free easy-to-use ower and samle size calculators can be found on the Internet. One of my favorites is G*Power 3. Estimating Samle Size From a Pilot Study Choosing a samle size is a bewildering task for many researchers. Researchers want to use enough subjects to detect meaningful effects, but they don t want to use too many subjects and squander research resources. Three aroaches to estimating samle size are illustrated. The rocedures differ in terms of the information that a researcher must rovide and in their simlicity. The first aroach requires the most information. A researcher must secify the (1) level of significance, α; () ower, 1 β; (3) size of the oulation variance, σ ; and (4) the sum of the squared oulation treatment effects, j= 1 α j. In ractice, σ and j= 1 α j are unknown. However, there are ways to circumvent this roblem. One way is to estimate σ and j= 1 α j from a ilot study. Alternatively, estimates of σ and j= 1 α j may be obtained from research that is similar to that under consideration. For the urose of illustration, suose that the hand-steadiness data in Table 4.-1 were obtained in a ilot study to estimate samle size; let α =.05 and 1 β =.80. This choice of values for α and 1 β is based on the widely acceted conventions that the robably of making a Tye I error should be less than or equal to.05 and the minimum accetable ower should be greater than or equal to.80. With these conventions and the ilotstudy information from Table 4.3-, a researcher can use trial and error to estimate the required samle size. The rocess consists of inserting trial samle-size values, denoted by n, in φ= ˆ n αˆ j / j = 1 σˆ and determining from Tang s charts whether a ower of.80 has been achieved. I begin the trial-and-error rocess with n = 7. ˆ φ= =.48 (.646)(0.654) = 1.73

17 CHAPTER 4 Comletely Randomized Design 141 with ν 1 = 1 = 3 and ν = (n 1) = 4(7 1) = 4. According to Tang s chart in Aendix Table E.1, ˆφ = 1.73 corresonds to a ower of.76, which is less than the desired ower. Substituting n = 8 in the formula ˆ φ= =.48 (.88)(0.654) = 1.85 with ν 1 = 3 and ν = 4(8 1) = 8 gives a ower of.83. Thus, if a researcher uses n = (8) (4) = 3 subjects, the ower is aroximately.83. Estimating Samle Size Using d If accurate estimates of j= 1 α j and σ are not available from a ilot study or revious research, the rocedure just described for calculating n cannot be used. However, there is an alternative aroach that does not require this information. The aroach does require a general idea about the size of the difference between the largest and smallest oulation means that would be useful to detect relative to the size of σ. To use this aroach, the difference between the largest and smallest oulation means that a researcher wants to detect is secified as some multile, denoted by d, of the oulation standard deviation; that is, μ max μ min = dσ. An examination of Figure should hel to clarify the meaning of d. For examle, the difference between μ max and μ min that a researcher wants to detect might be one and a half times larger than σ, d = 1.5, or the difference might be three μ max μ min = d σ f. μ min μ μ max X Figure Each treatment mean is reresented by a square. The mean of the means, the grand mean, is denoted by μ. Two of the treatment effects, α min = μ min μ = dσ / and α max = μ max μ = dσ /, are not equal to zero. The remaining treatment effects, α j = μ j μ = 0, are equal to zero. It should be aarent that j= 1 α j is minimal when μ min and μ max are not equal to the grand mean and all of the remaining means are equal to the grand mean.

18 14 Exerimental Design fourths as large as σ, d = This aroach to estimating samle size requires the secification of d but not j= 1 α j, μ max μ min, and σ. Obviously, to secify d, it is necessary to have some idea about the size of μ max μ min that would be worth detecting and to be able to exress this difference as a multile of σ. When there are more than two means in an exeriment, many configurations of means will roduce the same value of μ max μ min = dσ. It can be shown that the sum of the squared treatment effects, j= 1 α j, is minimal when two of the means, μ min and μ max, are not equal and the remaining means are equal to the grand mean. This configuration of means is illustrated in Figure It should be aarent from the figure that the treatment effect for μ min is equal to α min = μ min μ = dσ /. Similarly, the treatment effect for μ max is equal to α max = μ max μ = dσ /. Substituting α min and α max for two of the α j s in and zero for the remaining α j s gives j= 1 α j j= 1 dσ dσ d σ d σ j (0) (0) α = = = 4 Because ower increases with an increase in j= 1 α j, it follows that a choice of values for the α j s other than these will always lead to greater ower. Hence, if the samle size necessary to achieve a given ower is comuted for these treatment effects, a researcher can be certain that any other configuration for which the maximum difference between means is equal to dσ will yield a ower greater than that secified. The φ formula for estimating samle size is obtained by relacing with d σ / as follows: j= 1 α j φ= n α j = 1 σ j / = n ( d σ ) σ / / = n d Assume that an exeriment contains four treatment levels and I am interested in detecting differences among means such that μ max μ min is equal to 1.5σ. In this examle, d = 1.5, α =.05, 1 β =.80, and ν 1 = 1 = 3. Various trial samle-size values, n, can be tried in the formula for φ until the desired ower is obtained. I begin the trial-and-error rocess with n = 8. d (1.5) φ= n = 8 = 8(0.530) = 1.50 ()(4) where ν 1 = 1 = 3 and ν = (n 1) = 4(8 1) = 8. According to Aendix Table E.1, φ = 1.50 corresonds to a ower of.64. Obviously, a larger samle n is required. Substituting n = 11 in the formula gives d (1.5) φ= n = 11 = 11(0.530) = 1.76 ()(4)

19 CHAPTER 4 Comletely Randomized Design 143 where ν 1 = 1 = 3 and ν = (n 1) = 4(11 1) = 40. I get a ower of.81. Thus, to detect a difference between the largest and smallest means that is 1.5 times as large as σ, I should use n = (11)(4) = 44 subjects. The advantage of this aroach to estimating samle size is that it is not necessary to know or estimate j= 1 α j and σ. However, it is necessary to secify d, which is a kind of effect-size measure. Estimating Samle Size Using and f The third aroach to estimating samle size can be used when a researcher knows nothing about j= 1 α j and σ and is unable to exress μ max μ min as a multile of σ. This aroach requires a researcher to secify the (1) level of significance, α; () ower, 1 β; and (3) either the strength of association, ω, or the effect size, f, that is of interest. The use of ω is described first. In Section 4.4, Cohen s guidelines for interreting ω are described. Recall that ω =.010 is a small association. ω =.059 is a medium association. ω =.138 or larger is a large association. Suose that a researcher is interested in determining the samle size necessary to detect a large association, ω =.138, for a comletely randomized design with = 4 treatment levels. Assume that the researcher has followed the convention of setting α =.05 and 1 β =.80. The samle size can be determined from Aendix Table E.13 for ν 1 = 4 1 = 3 CR CR and ν = 4(n 1), where ν 1 and ν denote the degrees of freedom for a comletely randomized design. The value of n is obtained from the column headed by ω =.138 and the row labeled 1 β =.80. According to Table E.13, the samle n is 18. The exeriment requires n = (18)(4) = 7 subjects. The effect-size index, f, develoed by Cohen (1988) also can be used to determine the required samle size. Cohen suggested the following guidelines for interreting f: f =.10 is a small effect size. f =.5 is a medium effect size. f =.40 or larger is a large effect size. Suose that a researcher is interested in determining the samle size necessary to detect a large effect size, f =.40, for a comletely randomized design with = 4 treatment levels. Assume that α =.05 and 1 β =.80. The required samle size can be determined from Aendix Table E.13 for ν 1 = 4 1 = 3 and ν = 4(n 1), where ν 1 and ν denote the degrees of freedom for a comletely randomized design. The value of n is obtained from the column headed by f * = f =.400 and the row labeled 1 β =.80. According to Table E.13, the samle n is 18. The exeriment requires n = (18)(4) = 7 subjects. I am indebted to Barbara Mobley Foster, who develoed the samle-size tables from which Table E.13 was taken. CR CR

20 144 Exerimental Design Aendix Table E.13 can be used to estimate the samle size if α =.05, 1 β =.70,.80, or.90, and the design contains two to four treatment levels. If these conditions are not satisfied, Tang s charts in Aendix Table E.1 can be used to estimate n. The charts are entered with φ= n ω 1 ω or φ= n f * (f * = f ) deending on whether one wants to use a strength of association measure or an effect-size measure. Suose that a researcher lans to use a comletely randomized design and wants to detect a large strength of association, ω =.138, for an exeriment with = 5 treatment levels. Assume that α =.05 and 1 β =.80. Various n s can be tried in the formula for φ until the desired ower is obtained. I begin with n = 13. φ= n 1 ω = (0.4001) = 1.44 ω =.138 with ν 1 = 5 1 = 4 and ν = 5(13 1) = 60. According to Aendix Table E.1, a ower of aroximately.70 is obtained if n = 13. Obviously, a larger n is required. If n = 16, a ower of aroximately.80 is obtained..138 φ= 16 = (0.4001) = with ν 1 = 5 1 = 4 and ν = 5(16 1) = 75. The exeriment requires n = (16)(5) = 80 subjects. There is a tendency among researchers to underestimate the samle size required to obtain ractical significance. In the last examle, n = (16)(5) = 80 subjects are required to detect a large association. Medium and small associations require, resectively, (39)(5) = 195 subjects and (40)(5) = 100 subjects. Three aroaches to estimating samle size have been described. The use of ω or f combined with Cohen s guidelines for interreting values of ω and f requires the least amount of information and is the simlest. Cohen s guidelines are offered as a useful starting oint. Researchers should use their subject-matter knowledge to secify aroriate values of ω and f. What constitutes small, medium, and large associations, for examle, can vary from one research area to another. Easy-to-use rograms for estimating samle size are available on the Internet. Most of the rograms require the researcher to secify the tye of ANOVA design, an effect magnitude measure, α, 1 β, and the number of treatment levels. An estimate of the samle size necessary to detect effects that are ractically significant should always be made before an exeriment is erformed. A researcher may find, for examle, that the contemlated samle size is wastefully large, in which case the samle

21 CHAPTER 4 Comletely Randomized Design 145 size can be reduced. On the other hand, a researcher may find that the contemlated samle size is too small and gives less than a 60% chance of detecting treatment effects considered of ractical significance. In this case, a researcher may (1) attemt to secure enough subjects to obtain a ower of.80, () decide not to conduct the exeriment, or (3) attemt to modify the exeriment so as to reduce the required number of subjects. The modification could involve selecting a less stringent level of significance, settling for lower ower, increasing the size of treatment effects that are of interest, or redesigning the exeriment to obtain a more recise estimate of treatment effects and a smaller error term. 4.6 Random-Effects Model The exerimental design model equation for a comletely randomized design is given in Section 4.1 as Y ij = μ + α j + i( j) (i = 1,..., n; j = 1,..., ) There I assumed that the treatment effects are fixed effects, μ is a constant, and i( j) is NID(0, σ ). This model is called a fixed-effects model or model I. Alternatively, the treatment levels in the exeriment may reresent a random samle from a oulation of P levels, where P is large relative to. For this case, the treatment effects are random effects and the α j s are assumed to be NID(0, σ α). As before, μ is a constant and i( j) is NID(0, σ ). This model is called a random-effects model or model II. A comarison of the exected values of the mean squares for the two models is given in Table The derivation of E(MS) is given in Section 3.8. For both models, a test of the null hyothesis α j = 0 for all j (model I) or σ = 0 (model II) is given by F = MSBG MSWG = f( error effects) + f( treatment effects) f ( error effects) α where f( ) denotes a function of the effects in arentheses. If any treatment effects exist, the numerator of the F statistic should be larger than the denominator. This F statistic adheres to a basic rincile that is shared by all ANOVA F statistics: The exected value of the numerator should always contain one more term than the exected value of the denominator. For the random-effects model, E(MSBG) = σ + nσ α and E(MSWG) = σ. The F test can be regarded as a rocedure for deciding, on the basis of samle data, which of the following model equations Y ij = μ + i( j) Y ij = μ + α j + i( j) underlies observations in the oulation. 3 If the null hyothesis is rejected, the second equation is adoted; if not, the first equation remains tenable. 3 This view is exlored in detail in Chater 7.

22 146 Exerimental Design Table Comarison of E(MS) for Models I and II Source MSBG MSWG Model I E(MS) σ + n α j /( 1) j= 1 σ Model II E(MS) σ + nσα σ As you have seen, the fixed- and random-effects models are identical excet for the assumtions about the nature of the treatment effects. This difference is imortant because it determines the nature of the conclusions that can be drawn from an exeriment. For the fixed-effects model, conclusions are restricted to the treatment levels in the exeriment. For the random-effects model, conclusions aly to the P treatment oulations from which the treatment levels were randomly samled. 4.7 Advantages and Disadvantages of CR- Design The major advantages of the comletely randomized design are as follows: 1. The layout of the design is simle.. Statistical analysis and interretation of results are relatively straightforward. 3. The design does not require equal samle sizes for each treatment level. 4. It allows for the maximum number of degrees of freedom for the error sum of squares. 5. The design does not require a subject to articiate under more than one treatment level or the use of subjects who have been matched on an aroriate variable. The major disadvantages of the design are as follows: 1. The effects of differences among subjects are controlled by random assignment of the subjects to treatment levels. For this to be effective, subjects should be relatively homogeneous or a large number of subjects should be used.. When many treatment levels are included in the exeriment, the required samle size may be rohibitive. 4.8 Review Exercises 1. Terms to remember: a. confirmatory data analysis (4.) b. exloratory data analysis (4.) c. standardized residual (4.) d. outlier (4.) e. omega squared (4.4) f. intraclass correlation (4.4)

23 CHAPTER 4 Comletely Randomized Design 147 g. coefficient of multile h. central F distribution (4.5) determination (4.4) i. noncentral F distribution (4.5) j. noncentrality arameter (4.5) k. model I (4.6) l. model II (4.6) *. Two aroaches to learning roblem solving strategies more secifically, generating alternative solutions were investigated. Thirty sixth-graders were randomly assigned to one of the two aroaches and a control condition. Treatment level a 1, referred to as the training condition, involved articiating in five sessions er week during 3 consecutive weeks. Students assigned to this condition observed a videotae introduction for 10 minutes, racticed the skill for 15 minutes, observed eer models via videotae for 15 minutes, and watched a videotaed review for 10 minutes. Treatment level a, a film and discussion condition, was conducted concurrently with the training condition and for the same amount of time. Films related to generating alternative solutions were shown followed by grou discussions. The students in the control condition, treatment level a 3, did not receive any form of training. At the conclusion of the exeriment, five roblem situations were resented and the students were instructed to write down as many solutions to each one as they could. The deendent variable was the number of solutions roosed, summed across the five roblems. The following data were obtained. (Exeriment suggested by Poitras-Martin, D., & Steve, G. L. Psychological education: A skillsoriented aroach. Journal of Counseling Psychology.) a 1 a a *a. [4.] Perform an exloratory data analysis on these data (see Table 4.-1 and Figure 4.-1). Assume that the observations within each treatment level are listed in the order in which the observations were obtained. Interret the analysis. *b. [4.3] Test the null hyothesis μ 1 = μ = μ 3 ; let α =.05. Construct an ANOVA table and make a decision about the null hyothesis. *c. [4.4] Comute and interret ˆω and ˆf for these data.

24 148 Exerimental Design *d. [4.5] Calculate the ower of the test in art (b). *e. [4.5] Use the results of art (b) as a ilot study and determine the number of subjects required to achieve a ower of aroximately.80. *f. [4.5] Determine the number of subjects required to achieve a ower of.80, where the largest difference among means is 1.10σ. *g. [4.5] Determine the number of subjects required to detect a medium association with ower equal to.80. h. Preare a results and discussion section aroriate for the Journal of Counseling Psychology. *3. The effects of instructions-to-learn on erformance on a delayed-recall test were investigated. Twenty men and women college undergraduate volunteers were randomly assigned to two instructional conditions. The subjects assigned to treatment level a 1 were informed of a subsequent recall test rior to the resentation of a word list and were told to use any kind of rehearsal that they felt would aid their recall. The subjects in treatment level a were not informed of a subsequent recall test. Thirty concrete nouns were shown to the subjects. Each noun was resented for 1 second with a 9-second interstimulus interval. As each noun was shown, the subjects were required to write it down. Twenty-four hours later, the subjects were given a 10-minute written recall test. The deendent variable was the number of nouns recalled. The following data were obtained. (Exeriment suggested by McDaniel, Mark A., & Masson, M. E. Long-term retention: When incidental semantic rocessing fails. Journal of Exerimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory.) a 1 a *a. [4.] Perform an exloratory data analysis on these data (see Table 4.-1 and Figure 4.-1). Assume that the observations within each treatment level are listed in the order in which the observations were obtained. Interret the analysis. *b. [4.3] Use ANOVA to test the hyothesis μ 1 = μ ; let α =.05. Construct an ANOVA table and make a decision about the null hyothesis. *c. [4.4] Comute and interret ˆω and ˆf for these data.

25 CHAPTER 4 Comletely Randomized Design 149 *d. [4.5] Calculate the ower of the test in art (b). *e. [4.5] Use the results of art (b) as a ilot study and determine the number of subjects required to achieve a ower of aroximately.80. *f. [4.5] Determine the number of subjects required to detect a large association; let 1 β =.80. *g. [4.5] Determine the number of subjects required to achieve a ower of.80, where the largest difference among means is 1.15σ. h. Preare a results and discussion section aroriate for the Journal of Exerimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory. 4. The effects of written instructions designed to maximize subject attention to hynotic facilitative information were investigated. The subjects were 36 hynotically naive male and female college students who scored in the low and moderate ranges on the Harvard Grou Scale of Hynotic Suscetibility. The subjects were randomly assigned to one of four grous with nine subjects in each grou. Subjects in the rogrammed active information grou, treatment level a 1, read a booklet about hynosis. Intersersed throughout the booklet were incomlete sentences designed to test the subject s knowledge of the material. Answers were rovided on the following age of the booklet. Subjects in the active information grou, treatment level a, read a booklet that covered the same information but did not contain the self-testing feature. Subjects in the assive information grou, treatment level a 3, read a booklet about the historical develoment of hynosis but with no information about how to exerience hynosis. Subjects in the control grou, treatment level a 4, were given several magazines and told to browse through them in a relaxed manner. Following this hase of the exeriment, subjects took the Stanford Hynotic Suscetibility Scale, Form C. The deendent variable was the subject s score on this scale. The following data were obtained. (Exeriment suggested by Diamond, Michael Jay, Steadman, Clarence, Harada, D., & Rosenthal, J. The use of direct instructions to modify hynotic erformance: The effects of rogrammed learning rocedures. Journal of Abnormal Psychology.) a 1 a a 3 a

26 150 Exerimental Design a. [4.] Perform an exloratory data analysis on these data (see Table 4.-1 and Figure 4.-1). Assume that the observations within each treatment level are listed in the order in which the observations were obtained. Interret the analysis. b. [4.3] Test the hyothesis μ 1 = μ = μ 3 = μ 4 ; let α =.05. Construct an ANOVA table and make a decision about the null hyothesis. c. [4.4] Comute and interret ˆω and ˆf for these data. d. [4.5] Calculate the ower of the test in art (b). e. [4.5] Use the results of art (b) as a ilot study and determine the number of subjects required to achieve a ower of aroximately.80. f. [4.5] Determine the number of subjects required to detect a medium association; let 1 β =.80. g. [4.5] Determine the number of subjects required to achieve a ower of.80, where the largest difference among means is 0.95σ. h. Preare a results and discussion section for the Journal of Abnormal Psychology. 5. An exeriment was designed to evaluate the effects of different levels of training on children s ability to acquire the concet of an equilateral triangle. Fifty 3-year-old children were recruited from daycare facilities and randomly assigned to one of five grous, with 10 children in each grou. Each grou contained an equal number of boys and girls. Children in treatment level a 1 (visual condition) were shown 36 blocks, one at a time, and instructed to look at them but not to touch them. Children in treatment level a (visual lus motor condition) looked at the blocks and were ermitted to lay with them. They also were asked to erform secific tactile-kinesthetic exercises, such as tracing the erimeter of the blocks with their index finger. Children in treatment level a 3 (visual lus verbal condition) looked at the blocks and were told to notice differences in their shae, color, size, and thickness. Children in treatment level a 4 (visual lus motor lus verbal condition) used a combination of visual, motor, and verbal means of stimulus redifferentiation. Children in treatment level a 5 (control condition) engaged in unrelated lay activity. All training was done individually. The day after training, the children were shown a target block for 5 seconds and then asked to identify the block in a grou of seven blocks. This task was reeated six times using different target blocks. The deendent variable was the number of target blocks correctly identified. The following data were obtained. (Exeriment suggested by Nelson, G. K. Concomitant effects of visual, motor, and verbal exeriences in young children s concet develoment. Journal of Educational Psychology.)