Module 22: Bayesian Methods Lecture 9 A: Default prior selection

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1 Module 22: Bayesian Methods Lecture 9 A: Default prior selection Peter Hoff Departments of Statistics and Biostatistics University of Washington

2 Outline Jeffreys prior Unit information priors Empirical Bayes priors

3 Independent binary sequence Suppose researcher A has data of the following type: M A : y 1,..., y n i.i.d. binary(θ), θ [0, 1]. A asks you to do a Bayesian analysis, but either doesn t have any prior information about θ, or wants you to obtain objective Bayesian inference for θ. You need to come up with some prior π A (θ) to use for this analysis.

4 Independent binary sequence Suppose researcher B has data of the following type: M B : y 1,..., y n i.i.d. binary( eγ 1+e γ ), γ (, ). B asks you to do a Bayesian analysis, but either doesn t have any prior information about γ, or wants you to obtain objective Bayesian inference for γ. You need to come up with some prior π B (γ) to use for this analysis.

5 Prior generating procedures Suppose we have a procedure for generating priors from models: Procedure(M) π Applying the procedure to model M A should generate a prior for θ: Procedure(M A ) π A (θ) Applying the procedure to model M B should generate a prior for γ: Procedure(M B ) π B (γ) What should the relationship between π A and π B be?

6 Induced priors Note that a prior π A (θ) over θ induces a prior π A (γ) over γ = log This induced prior can be obtained via calculus; simulation. θ 1 θ.

7 Induced priors t h e t a < r b e t a ( , 1, 1 ) gamma< l o g ( t h e t a /(1 t h e t a ) ) θ γ

8 Internally consistent procedures This fact creates a small conundrum: We could generate a prior for γ via the induced prior on θ: Procedure(M A ) π A (θ) π A (γ) Alternatively, a prior for γ could be obtained directly from M B : Procedure(M B ) π B (γ) Both π A (γ) and π B (γ) are obtained from the Procedure. Which one should we use?

9 Jeffreys principle Jeffreys (1949) says that any default Procedure should be internally consistent in the sense that the two priors on γ should be the same. More generally, his principle states if M B is a reparameterization of M A, then π A (γ) = π B (γ). Of course, all of this logic applies to the model in terms of θ: Procedure(M A ) π A (θ) Procedure(M B ) π B (γ) π B (θ) π A (θ) = π B (θ)

10 Jeffreys prior It turns out that Jeffreys principle leads to a unique Procedure: π J (θ) = E[( d log dθ p(y θ))2 ] Example: Binomial/binary model y 1,..., y n i.i.d. binary(θ) π J (θ) θ 1/2 (1 θ) 1/2 We recognize this prior as a beta(1/2,1/2) distribution: θ beta(1/2, 1/2) Default Bayesian inference is then based on the following posterior: θ y 1,..., y n beta(1/2 + y i, 1/2 + (1 y i )).

11 Jeffreys prior Example: Poisson model y 1,..., y n i.i.d. Poisson(θ) π J (θ) 1/ θ Recall our conjugate prior for θ in this case was a gamma(a, b) density: θ(θ a, b) θ a 1 e θ/b For the Poisson model and gamma prior, π gamma(a, b) θ y 1,..., y n gamma(a + y i, b + n) What about under the Jeffreys prior? π J (θ) looks like a gamma distribution with (a, b) = (1/2, 0). It follows that θ π J θ y 1,..., y n gamma(1/2 + y i, n). ( Note: π J is not an actual gamma density - it is not a probability density at all! )

12 Jeffreys prior Example: Normal model y 1,..., y n i.i.d. Normal(µ, σ 2 ) π J (µ, σ 2 ) = 1/σ 2 (this is a particular version of Jeffreys prior for multiparameter problems) It is very interesting to note that the resulting posterior for µ is µ ȳ s/ n tn 1 This means that a 95% objective Bayesian confidence interval for µ is µ ȳ ± t.975,n 1s/ n This is exactly the same as the usual t-confidence interval for a normal mean.

13 Notes on Jeffreys prior 1. Jeffreys principle leads to Jeffreys prior. 2. Jeffreys prior isn t always a proper prior distribution. 3. Improper priors can lead to proper posteriors. These often lead to Bayesian interpretations of frequentist procedures.

14 Data-based priors Recall from the binary/beta analysis: θ beta(a, b) y 1,..., y n binary(θ) θ y 1,..., y n beta(a + y i, b + (1 y i ) Under this posterior, E[θ y 1,..., y n] = a + y i a + b + n ( a + b = a + b + n a a+b guess at what θ is a + b confidence in guess. ) a ( a + b + n a + b + n ) ȳ

15 Data-based priors We may be reluctant to guess at what θ is. Wouldn t ȳ be better than a guess? Idea: Set a a+b = ȳ. Problem: This is cheating! Using ȳ for your prior misrepresents the amount of information you have. Solution: Cheat as little as possible: a Set = ȳ. a+b Set a + b = 1. This implies a = ȳ, b = 1 ȳ. The amount of cheating has the information content of only one observation.

16 Unit information principle If you don t have prior information about θ, then 1. Obtain an MLE/OLS estimator ˆθ of θ; 2. Make the prior π(θ) weakly centered around ˆθ, have the information equivalent of one observation. Again, such a prior leads to double-use of the information in your sample. However, the amount of cheating is small, and decreases with n.

17 Poisson example: y 1,..., y n i.i.d. Poisson(θ) Under the gamma(a, b) prior, E[θ y 1,..., y n] = a + y i b + n b = ( b + n ) a b + ( n b + n )ȳ Unit information prior: a/b = ȳ, b = 1 (a, b) = (ȳ, 1)

18 Comparison to Jeffreys prior CI width j u j u uj uj uj CI coverage probability j j u u j u j u j u n n

19 Notes on UI priors 1. UI priors weakly concentrate around a data-based estimator. 2. Inference under UI priors is anti-conservative, but this bias decreases with n. 3. Can be used in multiparameter settings, and is related to BIC.

20 Normal means problem Task: Estimate θ = (θ 1,..., θ p). An odd problem: y j = θ j + ɛ j, ɛ 1,..., ɛ p i.i.d. normal(0, 1) What does estimation of θ j have to do with estimation of θ k? There is only one observation y j per parameter θ j - how well can we do? Where the problem comes from: Comparison of two groups A and B on p variables (e.g. expression levels) For each variable j, construct a two-sample t-statistic y j = x A,j x B,j s j / n For each j, y j is approximately normal with mean θ j = n(µ A,j µ B,j )/σ j variance 1.

21 Normal means problem y j = θ j + ɛ j, ɛ 1,..., ɛ p i.i.d. normal(0, 1) One obvious estimator of θ = (θ 1,..., θ p) is y = (y 1,..., y p). y is the MLE; y is unbiased and the UMVUE. However, it turns out that y is not so great in terms of risk: R(y, θ) = E[ p (y j θ j ) 2 ] When p > 2 we can find an estimator that beats y for every value of θ, and is much better when p is large. This estimator has been referred to as an empirical Bayes estimator. j=1

22 Bayesian normal means problem y j = θ j + ɛ j, ɛ 1,..., ɛ p i.i.d. normal(0, 1) Consider the following prior on θ: θ 1,..., ɛ p i.i.d. normal(0, τ 2 ) Under this prior, ˆθ j = E[θ j y 1,..., y n] = τ 2 τ y j This is a type of shrinkage prior: It shrinks the estimates towards zero, away from y j ; It is particularly good if many of the true θ j s are very small or zero.

23 Empirical Bayes ˆθ j = τ 2 τ y j We might know we want to shrink towards zero. We might not know the appropriate amount of shrinkage. Solution: Estimate τ 2 from the data! y j = θ j + ɛ j ɛ j N(0, 1) θ j N(0, τ 2 y j N(0, τ 2 + 1) ) We should have y 2 j p(τ 2 + 1) y 2 j /p 1 τ 2 Idea: Use ˆτ 2 = y 2 j /p 1 for the shrinkage estimator. Modification Use ˆτ 2 = y 2 j /(p 2) 1 for the shrinkage estimator.

24 James-Stein estimation ˆθ j = ˆτ 2 ˆτ y j ˆτ 2 = y 2 j /(p 2) 1 It has been shown theoretically that from a non-bayesian perspective, this estimator beats y in terms of risk for all θ. R(ˆθ, θ) < R(y, θ) for all θ Also, from a Bayesian perspective, this estimator is almost as good as the optimal Bayes estimator, under a known τ 2.

25 Comparison of risks Bayes risk The Bayes risk of the JSE is between that of X and the Bayes estimator. Bayes risk functions are plotted for p {3, 5, 10, 20}. τ 2

26 Empirical Bayes in general Model: p(y θ), θ Θ Prior class: π(θ ψ), ψ Ψ What value of ψ to choose? Empirical Bayes: 1. Obtain the marginal likelihood p(y ψ) = p(y θ)π(θ ψ)dθ ; 2. Find an estimator ˆψ based on p(y ψ) ; 3. Use the prior π(θ ˆψ).

27 Notes on empirical Bayes 1. Empirical Bayes procedures are obtained by estimating hyperparameters from the data. 2. Often these procedures behave well from both Bayes and frequentist procedures. 3. They work best when the number of parameters is large and hyperparameters are distinguishable.

Module 4: Bayesian Methods Lecture 9 A: Default prior selection. Outline

Module 4: Bayesian Methods Lecture 9 A: Default prior selection Peter Ho Departments of Statistics and Biostatistics University of Washington Outline Je reys prior Unit information priors Empirical Bayes