# AFT Models and Empirical Likelihood

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1 AFT Models and Empirical Likelihood Mai Zhou Department of Statistics, University of Kentucky Collaborators: Gang Li (UCLA); A. Bathke; M. Kim (Kentucky)

2 Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models: Y = log(t ) = Xβ + ɛ. The responses T, log(t ) or Y are subject to right censoring. We study the use of empirical likelihood method (Owen 2001) for inference about β.

3 Owen (1991) studied the use of empirical likelihood with linear models. (no censoring) He defines the Empirical Likelihood as: EL = n i=1 p i ; where pi = 1; p i 0. Is this a likelihood of the Y s or is this the likelihood for the ɛ s? Either interpretation is plausible here.

4 Owen (1991) identified two different linear models from the viewpoint of Empirical Likelihood (EL): regression models and correlation models, which came from Freedman (1981) bootstrap study of linear models.

5 Correlation Model: We observe iid random vectors (Y i, X i ); i = 1,..., n where Y i are one dimensional responses, X i are k-dimensional covariates. Unknown parameter β is the minimizer of g(b) = E Y X T b 2.

6 Regression Model: The covariates x i ; i = 1,..., n are fixed constants, observable k-dimensional vectors. Y i are independent random variables with distributions having location parameters x t i β.

7 The EL for the two types of models appears identical in Owen (1991) as given above, but have different interpretations and require different proofs for the generalized Wilks theorem under different assumptions. Owen (1991) showed the EL Wilks Theorem holds for both models: 2 log max EL 1/n χ 2 where the max of EL is taken over p i such that 0 = X i ψ(y i X i β 0 )p i.

8 Notice for a given (non-censored) data set, under either regression or correlation model the two EL ratios have the same value and the least squares estimator ˆβ is also the same under either model. So the two different models only pertain to two different sets of assumptions, under which the EL Wilks theorem hold.

9 With censored responses, not all Y i are available. Estimation equations, as well as the empirical likelihood needs to be changed. Censored data: randomly right censoring: Q i = min(y i, C i ) ; δ i = I[Y i C i ] where C i are the censoring times.

10 We see two different ways of defining the empirical likelihood for censored data, corresponding to the two types of linear model: Define the empirical likelihood based on the censored residuals : e i (b) = Q i X i b; δ i : EL (res) = n i=1 (p i ) δ i 1 p j 1 δi. e j e i Notice the order in the summation is based on the resid-

11 uals. This empirical likelihood is more suitable for regression models.

12 The second approach is to consider the empirical likelihood for (censored) vectors: (Q i, δ i, X i ): which we shall call it case-wise EL. EL (case) = n i=1 (p i ) δ i 1 p j 1 δi. Q j Q i Notice the order in the summation of the EL is based on Q s. This empirical likelihood is more suitable for correlation models.

13 The two definitions of the EL is parallel to the two ways of bootstrapping in linear models: (1) re-sample the residuals e i, for the regression models. (2) re-sample the vectors or cases (Y i, X i ), for the correlation models. See for example Freedman (1981).

14 We consider two types of estimates ˆβ suitable for the two types of EL and AFT models: (1) Buckley-James (1979) estimate. Rely on the fact that the errors (residuals) are iid. More suitable for the regression models. (2) Case weighted estimators (Koul, Susarla, Van Ryzin (1982) [not 1981!], Zhou (1992), Stute (1993, 1994, 1999); Huang, Ma, Xie (2005) etc.) Idea is based on the

15 (iid) cases (Y i, X i ) or (Q i, δ i, X i ). correlation models. More suitable for the

16 Let us first consider the Buckley-James estimator and EL (res). Let e i (b) = Q i X i b, be the (censored) residuals. The Buckley-James estimator of β is the solution to the estimation equation 0 = n X i i=1 δ i e i (b) + (1 δ i ) e j (b) ˆF (e j ) j:e j >e i 1 ˆF (e i ),

17 where ˆF ( ) is the Kaplan-Meier estimator computed from (e i (b), δ i ). The expression in blue is an estimation of the conditional expectation, Ê(Y i X i b Q i, β = b, δ i = 0). There are two summation signs in the above equation. (one for index i one for index j). Exchange the order of the summations we have 0 = n j=1 δ j e j (b) X j + i:e i <e j,δ i =0 X i ˆF (e j ) 1 ˆF (e i ).

18 This form of Buckley-James estimation equation will lead to the constraint equations we use with the censored empirical likelihood EL res.

19 The above defined EL (res) is to be maximized with and without the following added constraint equations (with b = β 0 ): 0 = n j=1 p j δ j e j (b) X j + i:e i <e j,δ i =0 X i ˆF (e j ) 1 ˆF (e i ) 1 ˆF (e j ). Notice the same p i appears in this constraint equations and in the definition of EL (res).

20 Without this constraint, the EL res is maximized at the Kaplan-Meier estimator, computed from e i (β 0 ), δ i. Under null hypothesis, i.e. when b = β 0, the 2logEL res ratio has asymptotically a chi squared distribution: 2 log max EL res max EL res χ 2 Proof See Zhou and Li (2004).

21 Simulation confirmation of the chi squared limit: Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

22 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

23 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

24 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

25 Now let us consider the correlation model and the case weighted estimator.

26 Many authors have proposed and studied the case-weighted estimator, including large sample property of the estimator under various assumptions. The earliest reference I can find is Koul, Susarla and Van Ryzin (1982), the latest reference is Huang, Ma and Xie (2005). In between there are: Zhou (1992), Stute (1993, 1994, 1999), Gross and Lai (1996), and van der Laan and Robins (2003): in their book they call this inverse censoring probability weight : since ˆF (Q i ) = δ i 1 Ĝ(Q i ) = w i

27 The case weighted estimator is defined by the estimating equations (cf. Zhou 1992) 0 = n i=1 w i δ i X i ψ(q i X i b) where w i is the jump of the Kaplan-Meier estimator at Q i computed from (Q i, δ i ). ψ() is monotone, usually the derivative of ρ(). The estimator ˆβ is easy to obtain, no iteration needed.

28 The constraint equations to work with the EL case are 0 = n i=1 p i δ i X i ψ(q i X i b). The EL (case) is to be maximized with and with out the above constraint equations. We have a chi square limit theorem (Wilks): Under null hypothesis, we have 2 log max EL case max EL case χ 2

29 in distribution. In the denominator, the max of EL case occurs when p i = jumps of the Kaplan-Meier estimator based on Q i, δ i.

30 If we interprets the constraint equations as constraints on the marginal DF of Y, then (since the EL is also on the Y marginal), existing results apply.

31 The constraint equation can be thought of as a constraint on the marginal CDF of the Y g(y, x)df Y (y) = 0

32 R Censored Data AFT Models Regression Model Buckley-James Est. EL(residual) Wilks Theorem Correlation Model Weighted Est. EL(case) Wilks Theorem

33 Notice with censored data, the two estimators are different and the two EL are also different. Yet they both have EL ratio converge to chi-square distribution under certain conditions.

34 Simulation results for correlation AFT models: Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

35 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

36 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

37 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

38 Less censoring: Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

39 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

40 Quantile regression is an important model in econometrics (Koenker 2005) Quantile of Y i = βx i Estimate β by arg min n i=1 ρ(y i βx i ) where ρ is the so called check function.

41 Estimating equation for β 0 = n i=1 X i ψ(y i βx i ) where ψ needs to be defined carefully.

42 Median regression: ψ(t) = 1, 0 or 1 depend on t > 0, t = 0 or t < 0. Variance of the ˆβ is hard to estimate. Using EL, we do not need to estimate the variance of ˆβ.

43 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

44 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

45 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

46 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

47 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

48 25% Quantile regression: ψ(t) = 0.5, 0.5 or 1.5 depend on t > 0, t = 0 or t < 0. 75% Quantile regression: ψ(t) = 1.5, 0.5 or 0.5 depend on t > 0, t = 0 or t < 0. These functions equal to 2 times the derivative of the so called check functions defined in Koenker Quantile Regression. We take this definition so that the median regression ψ is the more commonly used -1/+1 function.

49 The (heteroscedastic) model we are simulating next is generated by Y = X + 0.5(1 + X)ɛ where ɛ is iid Normal(0,1). X is uniform (0,1) and Y are right censored by exp(1). For 25% quantile regression, the true regression line is Y = X

50 For 75% quantile regression, the true regression line is Y = X From the plot we see that the 25% quantile regression is less sensitive to the right censoring, compared to median regression and 75% quantile regression.

51 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

52 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

53 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

54 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

55 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

56 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

57 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

58 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

59 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

60 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

61 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

62 Q-Q plot of 2 log ELR

63 Example: Wei 1995) Smallcell Lung Cancer Data (Ying, Jung & log(t ) = β 0 + X 1 β 1 + X 2 β 2 + σ(x 1, X 2 )ɛ X 1 = indicator of treatment; X 2 = age at entry.

64 Contour plot of 2 log ELR for β 1 β 2 ; β 0 fixed.

65 Comments about heteroscedasticity. The correlation model can accommodate some heteroscedasticity. When Y is censored, X can be missing. Censoring: C independent of Y. (stronger than conditional independence usually assumed by regression model and Buckley-James estimator). But Buckley-James assumes iis error.

66 References Buckley, J. J. and James, I. R. (1979). Linear regression with censored data. Biometrika, Freedman, D.A. (1981). Bootstrapping regression models. Annals of Statist., 9, Gross, S. and Lai, T.L. (1996). Nonparametric estimation and regression analysis with left truncated and right censored data. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 91, Huang, J., Ma, S. and Xie, H. (2005) Least Absolute Deviations Estimation for the Accelerated Failure Time Model. Tech Report #350 Univ. of Iowa, Dept. Stat. and Actuarial Science. Koul, H., Susarla, V, and Van Ryzin, J. (1982). Least squares regression analysis with censored survival data. In Topics in Applied Statistics, Ed.Y.P. Chaubey and T.D. Dwivedi, pp Marcel Dekker, New York. Laan, M. van der, and Robins, J. M. (2003) Unified Methods for Censored Longitudinal Data and Causality. Springer, New York. Owen, A (1991), Empirical likelihood for linear models. Annals of Statist., 19, Owen, A. (2001). Empirical likelihood. Chapman & Hall, London. Stute, W. (1999). Nonlinear Censored Regression. Statistica Sinica, 9, 4,

67 Jin, Z, Lin, D. Y. and Ying, Z. (2006). On least-squares regression with censored data Biometrika Zhou, M. (1992). M-estimation in censored linear models. Biometrika, 79, Zhou, M. and Li, G. (2004). Empirical likelihood analysis of the Buckley-James estimator.

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