Upper Bounds for the Ruin Probability in a Risk Model With Interest WhosePremiumsDependonthe Backward Recurrence Time Process
|
|
- Harvey Fletcher
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Λ4flΛ4» ν ff ff χ Vol.4, No fl ADVANCES IN MATHEMATICS Aug., 211 Upper Bounds for the Ruin Probability in a Risk Model With Interest WhosePremiumsDependonthe Backward Recurrence Time Process HE Jingmin 1,, WU Rong 2, CUI Jiafeng 3 1. College of Science, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin, 3384, P.R. China; 2. School of Mathematical Sciences and LPMC, Nankai University, Tianjin, 371, P. R. China; 3. College of Science, Tianjin University of Science and Technology, Tianjin, 3222, P. R. China Abstract: In the present paper, we investigate a risk model with interest, in which the claim counting process is a renewal counting process and premiums depend on the backward recurrence time process. We derive two eponential type upper bounds for the ruin probability by martingale methods and recursive techniques. Finally, we study several special cases and get numerical comparisons of upper bounds. Key words: backward recurrence time process; ultimate ruin probability; super-martingale; optional stopping theorem MR2 Subject Classification: 91B3 / CLC number: O211.6; F84 Document code: A Article ID: Introduction We consider a risk model in which the claim counting process is a renewal counting process. Denote by T n,n 1} the sequence of the inter-claim times and S n,n 1} the sequence of the claim times. Then we have n S =, S n = T i. Denote by X n,n 1} the sequence of the amount of claims. Let T n,n 1} independent of X n,n 1}, be positive, independent and identically distributed random variables with common distribution function G =P T, where T is an arbitrary T n,andx n,n 1} be positive, independent and identically distributed random variables with common distribution function F y =1 F y =P X y, with X an arbitrary X n. In the classical compound Poisson model and the Sparren Andersen model, the premium rate is a constant. But in our risk model, the premium rate to be received depends on the time since the last claim. For eample, in auto insurance, many insurance companies are now using credit scores as a factor in rating insurance premiums. If you have managed to build up a no claims bonusncb, then insurance companies will give you a discount on your quote. As long as you are a careful driver, and make no claims, then your NCB will be the single biggest Received date: Revised date: Foundation item: Supported by NSFCNo , No , National Basic Research Program of China973 Program, No. 27CB81495 and the Research Fund for the Doctorial Program of Higher Education. corresponding author: nkjmhe 22@yahoo.com.cn i=1
2 52 μ ρ Ω ffi 4fl way to reduce your insurance. Once claim occurs, the insurance company will reconsider the premium rate. That is to say, the process follows a deterministic path between claim arrival epochs, denoted by a measurable function φt, and it satisfies φt, = + t gsds, t >, where is the initial value of the deterministic path, and gs is a positive continuous function, which ensures that the totality of premiums is increasing in t. We write Nt =supn : S n t} for the claim counting process, then the surplus Ut of an insurance company at time t is given by Ut =u + t Nt gs S Ns ds X i, where u is the initial surplus and the premium rate depends on the current value of the process t S Nt : t } which is called the backward recurrence time process. It is assumed that the positive net profit condition holds, namely, E T i=1 gsds > EX. In this paper, we consider this model with constant interest force δ. Let U δ t bethe value of the surplus at time t, then U δ t =ue δt + t e δt s gs S Ns ds t Ns e δt s d X i. And let V δ t be the discounted value at time zero of U δ t, that is, V δ t =e δt U δ t. We firstly write out the eact epressions for U δ S n,n } and V δ S n,n }. U δ S =u, U δ S 1 =ue δt1 + T1 U δ S 2 =U δ S 1 e δt2 + e δt1 s gsds X 1, T2 U δ S n =U δ S n 1 e δtn + V δ S =u, T1 e δt2 s gsds X 2, Tn e δtn s gsds X n, V δ S 1 =u + e δs gsds X 1 e δt1, Tn V δ S n =U δ S n e = U δ S n 1 e 1 + e 1 e δs gsds X n e δtn Tn = V δ S n 1 +e 1 e δs gsds X n e, δtn 1 i=1
3 4» ±fi, ß, ΦΞ: Upper Bounds for the Ruin Probability 53 Since ruin can occur only at the time of a claim, we define inft :Uδ t < }, T δ =, if U δ t for all t>, to be the time of ruin, and τ δ = infn : Uδ S n < },, if U δ S n for all n N. Let Ψ δ u denote the ultimate ruin probability of U δ t, then Define Ψ δ u =P T δ < U δ = u} = P τ δ < U δ = u} } = P U δ S n < U δ = u n=1 } = P V δ S n < U δ = u. n=1 Ψ δ u; n =P τ δ n U δ = u} n } = P U δ S i < U δ = u i=1 n } = P V δ S i < U δ = u. i=1 Thus, the Monotone Convergence Theorem yields lim Ψ δu; n =Ψ δ u. n In risk theory, a particularly interesting problem is to calculate the ultimate ruin probability. Ruin problems related to the classical risk process with interest have been studied by many authors including Sundt and Teugel [8, 9], Dickson and Waters [5] and Kalashnikov and Konstantinides [6]. Ruin problems in the Sparre Andersen model have also been considered by many authors, such as Dickson and Hipp [3, 4] and Politis [7]. Cai and Dickson [2] studied the Sparre Andersen model with interest and derived two eponential upper bounds for the ultimate ruin probability. The above risk processes are special cases of our risk model. It is fairly difficult to determine the ultimate ruin probability Ψ δ u eplicitly. Therefore, bounds of the ruin probability Ψ δ u are requested. Following Cai and Dickson [2], we also derive two upper bounds for the ultimate probability by martingale techniques and recursive techniques. In addition, we consider several special cases and get numerical comparisons of upper bounds. Throughout this paper, it is assumed that Ee tx eistsfor<t<ξ,andthat lim t ξ Ee tx =. 1 Upper Bound by Martingale Approach In the classical risk model, one uses martingale approach to derive an eponential upper bound for the ruin probability. While, in our risk model, it is difficult to get an eponential martingale. However, we can get a discrete-time super-martingale with respect to V δ S n, that
4 54 μ ρ Ω ffi 4fl is, there eists a positive number R 1, such that e R1V δs n,n } is a discrete-time supermartingale. Using the same argument as Cai and Dickson [2], we can derive an eponential upper bound for the ultimate ruin probability. In this section, we assume that E[ T e δs gsds Xe δt ] >, and that there eists < such that P T e δs gsds Xe δt > if ξ =. The following lemma gives a nice interplay between conditioning and independence, and is etremely useful for proving the following theorem. We can find the similar lemma in Applebaum [1]. Lemma 1.1 Let F be a σ-algebra. If X and Y are two random variables where X is F - measurable and Y is independent of F, then for any non-negative or bounded Borel function f, E[fX, Y F ]=hx, a.s., where h =E[f, Y ] is a Borel function. Lemma 1.2 There eists a unique positive number R 1, such that [ T R 1 e δs gsds Xe δt =1. Proof Let Hr =E [ ep r T e δs gsds Xe δt. From E[ T e δs gsds Xe δt ] > it follows that H = 1, H = E[ T e δs gsds Xe δt ] <, and that Hr is conve and continuous. Further, Hr tends to infinity as r. The case ξ< is obvious. If ξ =, thenwehave T Hr e r P e δs gsds Xe δt as r. From this argument it follows that there eists a unique positive number R 1 such that HR 1 =1. Theorem 1.1 Let R 1 be defined as in Lemma 1.2. Then, for any u, we have Ψ δ u e R1u. Proof By 1, we have Tn+1 V δ S n+1 =V δ S n +e e δs gsds X n+1 e. δtn+1 Let F n = σt 1,,T n,x 1,,X n }. Then, for any n, E [ e R1V ] δs n+1 F n [ Tn+1 } Fn ] = e R1V δs n R 1 e e δs gsds X n+1 e δtn+1 [ Tn+1 = e R1V δs n R 1 } e ] e δs gsds X n+1 e δtn+1 Fn. Since <e 1, using Lemma 1.1 and Jensen s inequality for conditional epectations, we have [ Tn+1 } e ] e R1V δs n R 1 e δs gsds X n+1 e δtn+1 Fn
5 4» ±fi, ß, ΦΞ: Upper Bounds for the Ruin Probability 55 [ Tn+1 } Fn ] e e R1V δs n R 1 e δs gsds X n+1 e δtn+1. Since T n+1 and X n+1 are independent of F n,weget [ Tn+1 e R1V δs n R 1 By Lemma 1.2, we have Hence, [ Tn+1 = e R1V δs n R 1 } Fn ] e e δs gsds X n+1 e δtn+1 e e δs gsds X n+1 e δtn+1. [ Tn+1 e e R1V δs n R 1 e δs gsds X n+1 e δtn+1 = e R1V δs n. E [ e R1V δs n+1 F n ] e R 1V δ S n, which implies that e R1V δs n,n } is a discrete-time super-martingale. Since τ δ n is a bounded stopping time, using the optional stopping theorem for supermartingales, we get On the other hand, we have Hence, we have Ψ δ u; n e R1u. Letting n yields E [ e R1V δs τδ n ] E [ e R1V δs ] = e R1u. E [ e R1V δs τδ n ] E [ e R1V δs τδ n Iτ δ n ] = E [ e R1V δs τδ Iτ δ n ] E [ Iτ δ n ] =Ψ δ u; n. Ψ δ u e R1u. This completes the proof. If gs is a constant number, then our risk model is reduced to the Sparre Andersen model with interest, and the results of Theorem 1.1 and Theorem 2.1 in net section coincide with that of Cai and Dickson [2]. 2 Upper Bound by Recursive Techniques In this section, we derive a different upper bound for the ruin probability by recursive techniques. Similarly, we assume that there eists < such that P T eδt s gsds X > ifξ =.
6 56 μ ρ Ω ffi 4fl Lemma 2.1 There eists a unique positive number R 2, such that [ T R 2 e δt s gsds X =1. Proof Let [ T Hr = r e δt s gsds X. From E[ T eδt s gsds X] >E[ T gsds X] > it follows that H = 1, H = E[ T eδt s gsds X] <, and that Hr is conve and continuous on [,ξ. Further, Hr tends to infinity as r ξ. Thecaseξ< is obvious. If ξ =, thenwehave T Hr e r P e δs gsds Xe δt as r. From this argument it follows that there eists a unique positive number R 2 such that HR 2 =1. Theorem 2.1 Let R 2 be defined as in Lemma 2.1. Then, for any u, Ψ δ u βe [ e R2X] [ T R 2 ue δt + e δt s gsds e R2u, 2 where β 1 =inf t t e R2y df y. e R2t F t In particular, if F is NWUCnew worse than used in conve ordering, then for any u, [ T Ψ δ u R 2 ue δt + e δt s gsds. 3 Proof From the definition of β above, it follows that Thus, by 5 we have Ψ δ u;1 = P X 1 >ue δt1 + = F ue δ + F βe R2 e R2y df y 4 βe R2 E e R2X. 5 T1 βe [ e R2X] ep = βe [ e R2X] E [ ep } e δt1 s gsds dg e δ s gsds R 2 ue δ + R 2 ue δt + T } e δ s gsds dg e δt s gsds.
7 4» ±fi, ß, ΦΞ: Upper Bounds for the Ruin Probability 57 Under an inductive hypothesis, for some integer n 1, we assume that Ψ δ u; n βe [ e R2X] [ T R 2 ue δt + e δt s gsds. By Lemma 2.1 and the fact e δt 1, we have Ψ δ u; n βe [ e R2X] [ T R 2 u + e δt s gsds = βe R2u. 6 Conditioning on T 1 and X 1, we obtain the following recursion formula for Ψ δ u; n +1, T1 Ψ δ u; n +1=E [Ψ δ ue δt1 + = = + F ] e δt1 s gsds X 1 ; n Ψ δ ue δ + e δ s gsds y; n e δ s gsds dg ue δ + ue δ + R eδ s gsds Ψ δ ue δ + Then, by 4 and 6 we have Ψ δ u; n +1 βe R2ueδ + R eδ s gsds ue δ + R eδ s gsds df ydg e δ s gsds y; n df ydg. ue δ + R eδ s gsds e R2y df ydg + βe R2[ueδ + R eδ s gsds y] df ydg = βe [ e R2X] [ T R 2 ue δt + e δt s gsds. Hence, for any n 1, Ψ δ u; n βe [ e R2X] [ T R 2 ue δt + e δt s gsds. Letting n in the equation above, we obtain Ψ δ u βe [ e R2X] [ T R 2 ue δt + e δt s gsds. It follows from Lemma 2.1 and the fact e δt 1that Ψ δ u βe [ e R2X] [ T R 2 ue δt + βe [ e R2X] [ T R 2 u + = βe R2u E [ e R2X] [ T R 2 e δt s gsds e δt s gsds }] e δt s gsds
8 58 μ ρ Ω ffi 4fl = βe R2u e R2u, which gives equation 2. If F is NWUC, then β =[E[e R2X ]] 1 see [1] for details.. By 2 we get [ T Ψ δ u R 2 ue δt + e δt s gsds, which gives equation 3. 3Eamples It is generally difficult to derive the eplicit solution for the ultimate probability Ψ δ u even in some special cases. In this section, we give some numerical eamples to illustrate the application of the two different bounds. We take δ =.5 according to bank rate and assume that gs =c1 + e ηs in the following eamples. Net, we give some numerical solutions about the two risk models to make a comparison between the two upper bounds. Eample 3.1 Let T have an eponential distribution with parameter λ >, and X have an eponential distribution with parameter 1 μ >. From Lemma 1.2 and Lemma 2.1, R 1 satisfies the equation [ δ+η λ ep cr δ + η + δ δ δ + η + 1 ]} 1 d =1, 7 δ 1 rμ δ λ and R 2 satisfies the equation 1 1 rμ [ η ep cr δ + η δ + η + 1 ]} δ 1 λ + d =1. 8 δ δ Take c = 6, η = 1, λ = 1 and μ =1sothatEX =VarX = 1. By 7 and 8, we obtain that R 1 = and R 2 =.13224, then compare upper bounds in Table 1, where Martingale means the upper bound derived by the martingale method, which can be obtained by Theorem 1.1, and Recursion means the upper bound derived by the recursive method, which is the first bound in 2. Table 1 Upper bounds in Eample It can been seen from Table 1 that the upper bounds derived by the recursive method are sharper than those derived by the martingale method. Eample 3.2 Let T have an eponential distribution with parameter λ >, and X have a gamma distribution with shape parameter α> and scale parameter γ>. From Lemma 1.2
9 4» ±fi, ß, ΦΞ: Upper Bounds for the Ruin Probability 59 and Lemma 2.1, it follows that R 1 satisfies the equation [ δ+η λ ep cr δ + η + δ δ δ + η + 1 ]} α γ d =1, 9 δ γ r δ λ and R 2 satisfies the equation γ γ r α [ η ep cr δ + η δ + η + 1 ]} δ 1 λ + d =1. 1 δ δ It is well known that the gamma distribution F with <α 1isNWUC,β 1 = E[e R2X ]= γ γ R 2 α, and the gamma distribution F with α>1 satisfies the following equality β 1 =inf t e ry df y t = γ e rt F t γ r, for all r<γ. Case 1 Set c = 6, η = 1, λ = 1 and α = γ =.75 so that EX =1andVarX = 4 3. It follows easily from 9 and 1 that R 1 = and R 2 = By Theorem 1.1 and Theorem 2.1, the numerical solutions of the upper bounds are derived. See the Table 2. In this case, the epectation of the claim distribution is the same as that in Eample 3.1, but the variance is greater. Table 2 shows that the upper bounds in this case are greater than those in Table 1. Table 2 Upper bounds in Eample 3.2 when α = γ = Case 2 Set c = 6, η = 1, λ = 1 and α = γ =1.25 so that EX =1andVarX =.8. In this case, the epectation of the claim distribution is the same as those in Eample 3.1 and Case 1 in Eample 3.2, but the variance is smaller. We get that R 1 = and R 2 = by 9 and 1. By Theorem 1.1 and Theorem 2.1, the numerical solutions of the upper bounds are derived. See the Table 3. It can been seen from Table 3 that the upper bounds are less than those of Eample 3.1 and Case 1 in Eample 3.2. Table 3 Upper bounds in Eample 3.2 when α = γ =
10 51 μ ρ Ω ffi 4fl Eample 3.3 Let T have an Erlang2 distribution with parameter λ >, and X have an eponential distribution with parameter 1 μ >. From Lemma 1.2 and Lemma 2.1, R 1 is the solution of the equation [ δ+η λ ep cr δ + η + δ δ δ + η + 1 ]} 1 ln d =1, 11 δ 1 rμ δ λ and R 2 satisfies the equation 1 [ η ep cr 1 rμ δ + η δ + η + 1 ]} δ 1 λ + ln d =1. 12 δ δ Take c = 6, η = 1, λ = 2 and μ =1sothatEX =VarX = 1. By 11 and 12, we derived that R 1 =.1826 and R 2 = By Theorem 1.1 and Theorem 2.1, we derive the numerical solutions of the two upper bounds, which are shown in Table 4. Table 4 Upper bounds in Eample Eample 3.4 Let T have an Erlang2 distribution with parameter λ >, and X have a gamma distribution with shape parameter α> and scale parameter γ>. From Lemma 1.2 and Lemma 2.1, R 1 is the solution of the equation [ δ+η λ ep cr δ + η + δ δ δ + η + 1 ]} γ α ln d =1, 13 δ γ r δ λ and R 2 satisfies the equation γ α [ η ep cr γ r δ + η δ + η + 1 ]} δ 1 λ + ln d =1. 14 δ δ Case 1 Take c = 6, η = 1, λ = 2 and γ = α =.75 so that EX = 1and VarX = 4 3. By 13 and 14, we have R 1 = and R 2 = In addition, we also obtain the numerical solutions of the two upper bounds by Theorem 1.1 and Theorem 2.1, which are shown in Table 5. In this case, the epectation of the claim distribution is the same as those in Eample 3.3, but the variance is greater. Table 5 shows that the two upper bounds in this case are greater than those in Table 4. Table 5 Upper bounds in Eample 3.4 when γ = α =
11 4» ±fi, ß, ΦΞ: Upper Bounds for the Ruin Probability 511 Case 2 Set c = 6, η = 1, λ = 2 and α = γ =1.25 so that EX =1andVarX =.8. In this case, the epectation of the claim distribution is the same as those in Eample 3.3 and Case 1 of Eample 3.4, but the variance is smaller. We get that R 1 = and R 2 = by 13 and 14. By Theorem 2.1 and Theorem 3.1, the numerical solutions of the upper bounds are derived. See the Table 6. It can be seen from Table 6 that the upper bounds are less than those in Eample 3.3 and Case 1 of Eample 3.4. Table 6 Upper bounds in Eample 3.4 when γ = α = Since the upper bound derived by recursive method is smaller than e R2u and R 1 is less than R 2 in all the eamples above, the upper bounds derived by the recursive method are sharper than those derived by the martingale method. The same conclusions are shown in Table 1 Table 6. In risk literature, the upper bound derived by martingale method is really good. However, in the more general risk models, we sometimes can find a much better one, which can be shown by the eamples above. References [1] Applebaum, D., Levy Processes and Stochastic Calculus, Cambridge University Press, 24. [2] Cai J., Dickson, D.C.M., Upper bounds for ultimate ruin probabilities in the Sparre Andersen model with interest, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 23, 32: [3] Dickson, D.C.M., Hipp, C., Ruin probabilities for Erlang2 risk processes, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 1998, 22: [4] Dickson, D.C.M., Hipp, C., On the time to ruin for Erlang2 risk processes, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 21, 29: [5] Dickson, D.C.M., Waters, H.R., Ruin probabilities with compounding assets, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 1999, 25: [6] Kalashnikov, V., Konstantinides, D., Ruin under interest force and subeponential claim: a simple treatment, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2, 27: [7] Politis, K., Bounds for the probability and severity of ruin in the Sparre Andersen model, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 25, 36: [8] Sundt, B., Teugels, J.L., Ruin estimates under interest force, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 1995, 16: [9] Sundt, B., Teugels, J.L., The adjustment function in ruin estimates under interest force, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 1997, 19: [1] Willmot, G.E., Lin X.S., Lundberg Approimations for Compound Distributions With Insurance Applications, New York: Springer, 2. ψ%9.6*;53+"&47$1!'/2- >@A 1, C B 2, <?= 3 1. οψ Π ρ ρfi, οψ, 3384; 2. ffi ρμρfflρρfi, οψ, 371; 3. οψffl ρ ρ fi, οψ, 3222 :8: E~ΞcKglNT mλ ynn_wyitπvx _wyi DSuq±e Φ [ff s`yi. YffiRQZO}^v MLoHUlNiVΨwΛrb. fl[, Ξc k]vdznhfi GpWJrbNwjFa.,#: [ff s`yi; flωohul; rffi; fl spf
A Note On The Erlang(λ, n) Risk Process
A Note On The Erlangλ, n) Risk Process Michael Bamberger and Mario V. Wüthrich Version from February 4, 2009 Abstract We consider the Erlangλ, n) risk process with i.i.d. exponentially distributed claims
More informationFinite-time Ruin Probability of Renewal Model with Risky Investment and Subexponential Claims
Proceedings of the World Congress on Engineering 29 Vol II WCE 29, July 1-3, 29, London, U.K. Finite-time Ruin Probability of Renewal Model with Risky Investment and Subexponential Claims Tao Jiang Abstract
More informationA Ruin Model with Compound Poisson Income and Dependence Between Claim Sizes and Claim Intervals
Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica, English Series Vol. 3, No. 2 (25) 445 452 DOI:.7/s255-5-478- http://www.applmath.com.cn & www.springerlink.com Acta Mathema cae Applicatae Sinica, English Series The
More informationUniversity Of Calgary Department of Mathematics and Statistics
University Of Calgary Department of Mathematics and Statistics Hawkes Seminar May 23, 2018 1 / 46 Some Problems in Insurance and Reinsurance Mohamed Badaoui Department of Electrical Engineering National
More informationCharacterizations on Heavy-tailed Distributions by Means of Hazard Rate
Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica, English Series Vol. 19, No. 1 (23) 135 142 Characterizations on Heavy-tailed Distributions by Means of Hazard Rate Chun Su 1, Qi-he Tang 2 1 Department of Statistics
More informationLecture Notes on Risk Theory
Lecture Notes on Risk Theory February 2, 21 Contents 1 Introduction and basic definitions 1 2 Accumulated claims in a fixed time interval 3 3 Reinsurance 7 4 Risk processes in discrete time 1 5 The Adjustment
More informationMeasuring the effects of reinsurance by the adjustment coefficient in the Sparre Anderson model
Measuring the effects of reinsurance by the adjustment coefficient in the Sparre Anderson model Centeno, Maria de Lourdes CEMAPRE, ISEG, Technical University of Lisbon and Centre for Actuarial Studies,
More informationA Dynamic Contagion Process with Applications to Finance & Insurance
A Dynamic Contagion Process with Applications to Finance & Insurance Angelos Dassios Department of Statistics London School of Economics Angelos Dassios, Hongbiao Zhao (LSE) A Dynamic Contagion Process
More informationRuin Probability for Non-standard Poisson Risk Model with Stochastic Returns
Ruin Probability for Non-standard Poisson Risk Model with Stochastic Returns Tao Jiang Abstract This paper investigates the finite time ruin probability in non-homogeneous Poisson risk model, conditional
More informationOn Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities in a Risk Model Under Quota Share Reinsurance
Applied Mathematical Sciences, Vol. 11, 217, no. 53, 269-2629 HIKARI Ltd, www.m-hikari.com https://doi.org/1.12988/ams.217.7824 On Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities in a Risk Model Under Quota Share Reinsurance
More informationRuin Probabilities of a Discrete-time Multi-risk Model
Ruin Probabilities of a Discrete-time Multi-risk Model Andrius Grigutis, Agneška Korvel, Jonas Šiaulys Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics, Vilnius University, Naugarduko 4, Vilnius LT-035, Lithuania
More informationPractical approaches to the estimation of the ruin probability in a risk model with additional funds
Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications (204) 67 80 DOI: 05559/5-VMSTA8 Practical approaches to the estimation of the ruin probability in a risk model with additional funds Yuliya Mishura a Olena Ragulina
More informationRuin probabilities of the Parisian type for small claims
Ruin probabilities of the Parisian type for small claims Angelos Dassios, Shanle Wu October 6, 28 Abstract In this paper, we extend the concept of ruin in risk theory to the Parisian type of ruin. For
More informationAsymptotics of random sums of heavy-tailed negatively dependent random variables with applications
Asymptotics of random sums of heavy-tailed negatively dependent random variables with applications Remigijus Leipus (with Yang Yang, Yuebao Wang, Jonas Šiaulys) CIRM, Luminy, April 26-30, 2010 1. Preliminaries
More informationAnalysis of the ruin probability using Laplace transforms and Karamata Tauberian theorems
Analysis of the ruin probability using Laplace transforms and Karamata Tauberian theorems Corina Constantinescu and Enrique Thomann Abstract The classical result of Cramer-Lundberg states that if the rate
More informationMultivariate Risk Processes with Interacting Intensities
Multivariate Risk Processes with Interacting Intensities Nicole Bäuerle (joint work with Rudolf Grübel) Luminy, April 2010 Outline Multivariate pure birth processes Multivariate Risk Processes Fluid Limits
More informationA Stochastic Paradox for Reflected Brownian Motion?
Proceedings of the 9th International Symposium on Mathematical Theory of Networks and Systems MTNS 2 9 July, 2 udapest, Hungary A Stochastic Parado for Reflected rownian Motion? Erik I. Verriest Abstract
More informationOn lower limits and equivalences for distribution tails of randomly stopped sums 1
On lower limits and equivalences for distribution tails of randomly stopped sums 1 D. Denisov, 2 S. Foss, 3 and D. Korshunov 4 Eurandom, Heriot-Watt University and Sobolev Institute of Mathematics Abstract
More informationNecessary and sucient condition for the boundedness of the Gerber-Shiu function in dependent Sparre Andersen model
Miskolc Mathematical Notes HU e-issn 1787-2413 Vol. 15 (214), No 1, pp. 159-17 OI: 1.18514/MMN.214.757 Necessary and sucient condition for the boundedness of the Gerber-Shiu function in dependent Sparre
More informationFundamental Inequalities, Convergence and the Optional Stopping Theorem for Continuous-Time Martingales
Fundamental Inequalities, Convergence and the Optional Stopping Theorem for Continuous-Time Martingales Prakash Balachandran Department of Mathematics Duke University April 2, 2008 1 Review of Discrete-Time
More informationOn the probability of reaching a barrier in an Erlang(2) risk process
Statistics & Operations Research Transactions SORT 29 (2) July-December 25, 235-248 ISSN: 1696-2281 www.idescat.net/sort Statistics & Operations Research c Institut d Estadística de Transactions Catalunya
More informationThe finite-time Gerber-Shiu penalty function for two classes of risk processes
The finite-time Gerber-Shiu penalty function for two classes of risk processes July 10, 2014 49 th Actuarial Research Conference University of California, Santa Barbara, July 13 July 16, 2014 The finite
More informationON THE MOMENTS OF ITERATED TAIL
ON THE MOMENTS OF ITERATED TAIL RADU PĂLTĂNEA and GHEORGHIŢĂ ZBĂGANU The classical distribution in ruins theory has the property that the sequence of the first moment of the iterated tails is convergent
More informationNonlife Actuarial Models. Chapter 5 Ruin Theory
Nonlife Actuarial Models Chapter 5 Ruin Theory Learning Objectives 1. Surplus function, premium rate and loss process 2. Probability of ultimate ruin 3. Probability of ruin before a finite time 4. Adjustment
More informationOptimal stopping of a risk process when claims are covered immediately
Optimal stopping of a risk process when claims are covered immediately Bogdan Muciek Krzysztof Szajowski Abstract The optimal stopping problem for the risk process with interests rates and when claims
More informationThe equivalence of two tax processes
The equivalence of two ta processes Dalal Al Ghanim Ronnie Loeffen Ale Watson 6th November 218 arxiv:1811.1664v1 [math.pr] 5 Nov 218 We introduce two models of taation, the latent and natural ta processes,
More informationUpper and lower bounds for ruin probability
Upper and lower bounds for ruin probability E. Pancheva,Z.Volkovich and L.Morozensky 3 Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, 3 Sofia, Bulgaria pancheva@math.bas.bg
More informationMath 180A. Lecture 16 Friday May 7 th. Expectation. Recall the three main probability density functions so far (1) Uniform (2) Exponential.
Math 8A Lecture 6 Friday May 7 th Epectation Recall the three main probability density functions so far () Uniform () Eponential (3) Power Law e, ( ), Math 8A Lecture 6 Friday May 7 th Epectation Eample
More informationA Practitioner s Guide to Generalized Linear Models
A Practitioners Guide to Generalized Linear Models Background The classical linear models and most of the minimum bias procedures are special cases of generalized linear models (GLMs). GLMs are more technically
More informationf X (x) = λe λx, , x 0, k 0, λ > 0 Γ (k) f X (u)f X (z u)du
11 COLLECTED PROBLEMS Do the following problems for coursework 1. Problems 11.4 and 11.5 constitute one exercise leading you through the basic ruin arguments. 2. Problems 11.1 through to 11.13 but excluding
More informationSample of Ph.D. Advisory Exam For MathFinance
Sample of Ph.D. Advisory Exam For MathFinance Students who wish to enter the Ph.D. program of Mathematics of Finance are required to take the advisory exam. This exam consists of three major parts. The
More informationBrownian motion. Samy Tindel. Purdue University. Probability Theory 2 - MA 539
Brownian motion Samy Tindel Purdue University Probability Theory 2 - MA 539 Mostly taken from Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus by I. Karatzas and S. Shreve Samy T. Brownian motion Probability Theory
More informationCIMPA SCHOOL, 2007 Jump Processes and Applications to Finance Monique Jeanblanc
CIMPA SCHOOL, 27 Jump Processes and Applications to Finance Monique Jeanblanc 1 Jump Processes I. Poisson Processes II. Lévy Processes III. Jump-Diffusion Processes IV. Point Processes 2 I. Poisson Processes
More informationBrownian Motion. 1 Definition Brownian Motion Wiener measure... 3
Brownian Motion Contents 1 Definition 2 1.1 Brownian Motion................................. 2 1.2 Wiener measure.................................. 3 2 Construction 4 2.1 Gaussian process.................................
More informationRuin probabilities in multivariate risk models with periodic common shock
Ruin probabilities in multivariate risk models with periodic common shock January 31, 2014 3 rd Workshop on Insurance Mathematics Universite Laval, Quebec, January 31, 2014 Ruin probabilities in multivariate
More informationReinsurance and ruin problem: asymptotics in the case of heavy-tailed claims
Reinsurance and ruin problem: asymptotics in the case of heavy-tailed claims Serguei Foss Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh Karlovasi, Samos 3 June, 2010 (Joint work with Tomasz Rolski and Stan Zachary
More informationStochastic Areas and Applications in Risk Theory
Stochastic Areas and Applications in Risk Theory July 16th, 214 Zhenyu Cui Department of Mathematics Brooklyn College, City University of New York Zhenyu Cui 49th Actuarial Research Conference 1 Outline
More information1. Stochastic Processes and filtrations
1. Stochastic Processes and 1. Stoch. pr., A stochastic process (X t ) t T is a collection of random variables on (Ω, F) with values in a measurable space (S, S), i.e., for all t, In our case X t : Ω S
More informationPoint Process Control
Point Process Control The following note is based on Chapters I, II and VII in Brémaud s book Point Processes and Queues (1981). 1 Basic Definitions Consider some probability space (Ω, F, P). A real-valued
More informationOptimal investment strategies for an index-linked insurance payment process with stochastic intensity
for an index-linked insurance payment process with stochastic intensity Warsaw School of Economics Division of Probabilistic Methods Probability space ( Ω, F, P ) Filtration F = (F(t)) 0 t T satisfies
More informationSystem Simulation Part II: Mathematical and Statistical Models Chapter 5: Statistical Models
System Simulation Part II: Mathematical and Statistical Models Chapter 5: Statistical Models Fatih Cavdur fatihcavdur@uludag.edu.tr March 29, 2014 Introduction Introduction The world of the model-builder
More informationfi K Z 0 23A:4(2002), ρ [ fif;μ=*%r9tμ?ffi!5 hed* c j* mgi* lkf** J W.O(^ jaz:ud=`ψ`j ψ(x), p: x *fl:lffi' =Λ " k E» N /,Xß=χο6Πh)C7 x!1~πψ(x)
fi K Z 23A:4(22),531-536. ρ [ fif;μ=*%r9tμ?ffi!5 hed* c j* mgi* lkf** J W.O(^ jaz:ud=`ψ`j ψ(), p: *fl:lffi' =Λ " k E» N /,Xß=χο6Πh)C7!1~Πψ() =,? s3πμ;χwc&c= Cramer-Lundberg UD6=χL&pUy ', +WοΞfiffbHΞ_χ_IΞY9TCΞi@%
More informationSubexponential Tails of Discounted Aggregate Claims in a Time-Dependent Renewal Risk Model
Subexponential Tails of Discounted Aggregate Claims in a Time-Dependent Renewal Risk Model Jinzhu Li [a];[b], Qihe Tang [b];, and Rong Wu [a] [a] School of Mathematical Science and LPMC Nankai University,
More informationExperience Rating in General Insurance by Credibility Estimation
Experience Rating in General Insurance by Credibility Estimation Xian Zhou Department of Applied Finance and Actuarial Studies Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia Abstract This work presents a new
More informationUniversal examples. Chapter The Bernoulli process
Chapter 1 Universal examples 1.1 The Bernoulli process First description: Bernoulli random variables Y i for i = 1, 2, 3,... independent with P [Y i = 1] = p and P [Y i = ] = 1 p. Second description: Binomial
More informationNested Uncertain Differential Equations and Its Application to Multi-factor Term Structure Model
Nested Uncertain Differential Equations and Its Application to Multi-factor Term Structure Model Xiaowei Chen International Business School, Nankai University, Tianjin 371, China School of Finance, Nankai
More informationIntroduction to Probability Theory for Graduate Economics Fall 2008
Introduction to Probability Theory for Graduate Economics Fall 008 Yiğit Sağlam October 10, 008 CHAPTER - RANDOM VARIABLES AND EXPECTATION 1 1 Random Variables A random variable (RV) is a real-valued function
More informationTail Properties and Asymptotic Expansions for the Maximum of Logarithmic Skew-Normal Distribution
Tail Properties and Asymptotic Epansions for the Maimum of Logarithmic Skew-Normal Distribution Xin Liao, Zuoiang Peng & Saralees Nadarajah First version: 8 December Research Report No. 4,, Probability
More informationThe incomplete gamma functions. Notes by G.J.O. Jameson. These notes incorporate the Math. Gazette article [Jam1], with some extra material.
The incomplete gamma functions Notes by G.J.O. Jameson These notes incorporate the Math. Gazette article [Jam], with some etra material. Definitions and elementary properties functions: Recall the integral
More informationFiltrations, Markov Processes and Martingales. Lectures on Lévy Processes and Stochastic Calculus, Braunschweig, Lecture 3: The Lévy-Itô Decomposition
Filtrations, Markov Processes and Martingales Lectures on Lévy Processes and Stochastic Calculus, Braunschweig, Lecture 3: The Lévy-Itô Decomposition David pplebaum Probability and Statistics Department,
More informationLecture Notes 2 Random Variables. Discrete Random Variables: Probability mass function (pmf)
Lecture Notes 2 Random Variables Definition Discrete Random Variables: Probability mass function (pmf) Continuous Random Variables: Probability density function (pdf) Mean and Variance Cumulative Distribution
More informationOPTIMAL STOPPING OF A BROWNIAN BRIDGE
OPTIMAL STOPPING OF A BROWNIAN BRIDGE ERIK EKSTRÖM AND HENRIK WANNTORP Abstract. We study several optimal stopping problems in which the gains process is a Brownian bridge or a functional of a Brownian
More informationRecursive Calculation of Finite Time Ruin Probabilities Under Interest Force
Recursive Calculation of Finite Time Ruin Probabilities Under Interest Force Rui M R Cardoso and Howard R Waters Abstract In this paper we consider a classical insurance surplus process affected by a constant
More informationPreservation of Classes of Discrete Distributions Under Reliability Operations
Journal of Statistical Theory and Applications, Vol. 12, No. 1 (May 2013), 1-10 Preservation of Classes of Discrete Distributions Under Reliability Operations I. Elbatal 1 and M. Ahsanullah 2 1 Institute
More informationExponential Distribution and Poisson Process
Exponential Distribution and Poisson Process Stochastic Processes - Lecture Notes Fatih Cavdur to accompany Introduction to Probability Models by Sheldon M. Ross Fall 215 Outline Introduction Exponential
More informationExercise Exercise Homework #6 Solutions Thursday 6 April 2006
Unless otherwise stated, for the remainder of the solutions, define F m = σy 0,..., Y m We will show EY m = EY 0 using induction. m = 0 is obviously true. For base case m = : EY = EEY Y 0 = EY 0. Now assume
More informationA COLLOCATION METHOD FOR THE SEQUENTIAL TESTING OF A GAMMA PROCESS
Statistica Sinica 25 2015), 1527-1546 doi:http://d.doi.org/10.5705/ss.2013.155 A COLLOCATION METHOD FOR THE SEQUENTIAL TESTING OF A GAMMA PROCESS B. Buonaguidi and P. Muliere Bocconi University Abstract:
More informationCSCI-6971 Lecture Notes: Probability theory
CSCI-6971 Lecture Notes: Probability theory Kristopher R. Beevers Department of Computer Science Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute beevek@cs.rpi.edu January 31, 2006 1 Properties of probabilities Let, A,
More informationProblem Points S C O R E Total: 120
PSTAT 160 A Final Exam December 10, 2015 Name Student ID # Problem Points S C O R E 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 10 6 10 7 10 8 10 9 10 10 10 11 10 12 10 Total: 120 1. (10 points) Take a Markov chain with the
More informationThe Ruin Probability of a Discrete Time Risk Model under Constant Interest Rate with Heavy Tails
Scand. Actuarial J. 2004; 3: 229/240 æoriginal ARTICLE The Ruin Probability of a Discrete Time Risk Model under Constant Interest Rate with Heavy Tails QIHE TANG Qihe Tang. The ruin probability of a discrete
More informationSUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL COBRA: A Combined Regression Strategy by G. Biau, A. Fischer, B. Guedj and J. D. Malley
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL COBRA: A Combined Regression Strategy by G. Biau, A. Fischer, B. Guedj and J. D. Malley A. Proofs A.1. Proof of Proposition.1 e have E T n (r k (X)) r? (X) = E T n (r k (X)) T(r
More informationFall 2003 Society of Actuaries Course 3 Solutions = (0.9)(0.8)(0.3) + (0.5)(0.4)(0.7) (0.9)(0.8)(0.5)(0.4) [1-(0.7)(0.3)] = (0.
Fall 3 Society of Actuaries Course 3 Solutions Question # Key: E q = p p 3:34 3:34 3 3:34 p p p 3 34 3:34 p 3:34 p p p p 3 3 3 34 3 3:34 3 3:34 =.9.8 =.7 =.5.4 =. =.7. =.44 =.7 +..44 =.776 =.7.7 =.54 =..3
More informationSolutions Quiz 9 Nov. 8, Prove: If a, b, m are integers such that 2a + 3b 12m + 1, then a 3m + 1 or b 2m + 1.
Solutions Quiz 9 Nov. 8, 2010 1. Prove: If a, b, m are integers such that 2a + 3b 12m + 1, then a 3m + 1 or b 2m + 1. Answer. We prove the contrapositive. Suppose a, b, m are integers such that a < 3m
More informationDynkin (λ-) and π-systems; monotone classes of sets, and of functions with some examples of application (mainly of a probabilistic flavor)
Dynkin (λ-) and π-systems; monotone classes of sets, and of functions with some examples of application (mainly of a probabilistic flavor) Matija Vidmar February 7, 2018 1 Dynkin and π-systems Some basic
More informationn E(X t T n = lim X s Tn = X s
Stochastic Calculus Example sheet - Lent 15 Michael Tehranchi Problem 1. Let X be a local martingale. Prove that X is a uniformly integrable martingale if and only X is of class D. Solution 1. If If direction:
More informationTaylor Series and Asymptotic Expansions
Taylor Series and Asymptotic Epansions The importance of power series as a convenient representation, as an approimation tool, as a tool for solving differential equations and so on, is pretty obvious.
More informationEE/CpE 345. Modeling and Simulation. Fall Class 5 September 30, 2002
EE/CpE 345 Modeling and Simulation Class 5 September 30, 2002 Statistical Models in Simulation Real World phenomena of interest Sample phenomena select distribution Probabilistic, not deterministic Model
More informationMartingale Theory for Finance
Martingale Theory for Finance Tusheng Zhang October 27, 2015 1 Introduction 2 Probability spaces and σ-fields 3 Integration with respect to a probability measure. 4 Conditional expectation. 5 Martingales.
More information1 Delayed Renewal Processes: Exploiting Laplace Transforms
IEOR 6711: Stochastic Models I Professor Whitt, Tuesday, October 22, 213 Renewal Theory: Proof of Blackwell s theorem 1 Delayed Renewal Processes: Exploiting Laplace Transforms The proof of Blackwell s
More informationEconomics 205 Exercises
Economics 05 Eercises Prof. Watson, Fall 006 (Includes eaminations through Fall 003) Part 1: Basic Analysis 1. Using ε and δ, write in formal terms the meaning of lim a f() = c, where f : R R.. Write the
More informationSolutions For Stochastic Process Final Exam
Solutions For Stochastic Process Final Exam (a) λ BMW = 20 0% = 2 X BMW Poisson(2) Let N t be the number of BMWs which have passes during [0, t] Then the probability in question is P (N ) = P (N = 0) =
More informationExtremes and ruin of Gaussian processes
International Conference on Mathematical and Statistical Modeling in Honor of Enrique Castillo. June 28-30, 2006 Extremes and ruin of Gaussian processes Jürg Hüsler Department of Math. Statistics, University
More informationExercises in stochastic analysis
Exercises in stochastic analysis Franco Flandoli, Mario Maurelli, Dario Trevisan The exercises with a P are those which have been done totally or partially) in the previous lectures; the exercises with
More informationAsymptotics of the Finite-time Ruin Probability for the Sparre Andersen Risk. Model Perturbed by an Inflated Stationary Chi-process
Asymptotics of the Finite-time Ruin Probability for the Sparre Andersen Risk Model Perturbed by an Inflated Stationary Chi-process Enkelejd Hashorva and Lanpeng Ji Abstract: In this paper we consider the
More informationModelling the risk process
Modelling the risk process Krzysztof Burnecki Hugo Steinhaus Center Wroc law University of Technology www.im.pwr.wroc.pl/ hugo Modelling the risk process 1 Risk process If (Ω, F, P) is a probability space
More informationStability of the Defect Renewal Volterra Integral Equations
19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, Australia, 12 16 December 211 http://mssanz.org.au/modsim211 Stability of the Defect Renewal Volterra Integral Equations R. S. Anderssen,
More informationLecture Notes 2 Random Variables. Random Variable
Lecture Notes 2 Random Variables Definition Discrete Random Variables: Probability mass function (pmf) Continuous Random Variables: Probability density function (pdf) Mean and Variance Cumulative Distribution
More informationMinimization of ruin probabilities by investment under transaction costs
Minimization of ruin probabilities by investment under transaction costs Stefan Thonhauser DSA, HEC, Université de Lausanne 13 th Scientific Day, Bonn, 3.4.214 Outline Introduction Risk models and controls
More informationA numerical method for solving uncertain differential equations
Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems 25 (213 825 832 DOI:1.3233/IFS-12688 IOS Press 825 A numerical method for solving uncertain differential equations Kai Yao a and Xiaowei Chen b, a Department of Mathematical
More informationOn a discrete time risk model with delayed claims and a constant dividend barrier
On a discrete time risk model with delayed claims and a constant dividend barrier Xueyuan Wu, Shuanming Li Centre for Actuarial Studies, Department of Economics The University of Melbourne, Parkville,
More informationJournal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications
J. Math. Anal. Appl. 383 2011 215 225 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications www.elsevier.com/locate/jmaa Uniform estimates for the finite-time ruin
More information6. Brownian Motion. Q(A) = P [ ω : x(, ω) A )
6. Brownian Motion. stochastic process can be thought of in one of many equivalent ways. We can begin with an underlying probability space (Ω, Σ, P) and a real valued stochastic process can be defined
More informationPoisson Processes. Stochastic Processes. Feb UC3M
Poisson Processes Stochastic Processes UC3M Feb. 2012 Exponential random variables A random variable T has exponential distribution with rate λ > 0 if its probability density function can been written
More informationASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIOR OF THE FINITE-TIME RUIN PROBABILITY WITH PAIRWISE QUASI-ASYMPTOTICALLY INDEPENDENT CLAIMS AND CONSTANT INTEREST FORCE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICS Volume 44, Number 5, 214 ASYMPTOTIC BEHAVIOR OF THE FINITE-TIME RUIN PROBABILITY WITH PAIRWISE QUASI-ASYMPTOTICALLY INDEPENDENT CLAIMS AND CONSTANT INTEREST FORCE
More informationOn the discounted penalty function in a discrete time renewal risk model with general interclaim times
On the discounted penalty function in a discrete time renewal risk model with general interclaim times Xueyuan Wu, Shuanming Li Centre for Actuarial Studies, Department of Economics The University of Melbourne,
More informationMultiple Decrement Models
Multiple Decrement Models Lecture: Weeks 7-8 Lecture: Weeks 7-8 (Math 3631) Multiple Decrement Models Spring 2018 - Valdez 1 / 26 Multiple decrement models Lecture summary Multiple decrement model - epressed
More information) ) = γ. and P ( X. B(a, b) = Γ(a)Γ(b) Γ(a + b) ; (x + y, ) I J}. Then, (rx) a 1 (ry) b 1 e (x+y)r r 2 dxdy Γ(a)Γ(b) D
3 Independent Random Variables II: Examples 3.1 Some functions of independent r.v. s. Let X 1, X 2,... be independent r.v. s with the known distributions. Then, one can compute the distribution of a r.v.
More informationChapter 2. Random Variable. Define single random variables in terms of their PDF and CDF, and calculate moments such as the mean and variance.
Chapter 2 Random Variable CLO2 Define single random variables in terms of their PDF and CDF, and calculate moments such as the mean and variance. 1 1. Introduction In Chapter 1, we introduced the concept
More informationRS Chapter 2 Random Variables 9/28/2017. Chapter 2. Random Variables
RS Chapter Random Variables 9/8/017 Chapter Random Variables Random Variables A random variable is a convenient way to epress the elements of Ω as numbers rather than abstract elements of sets. Definition:
More informationPROBABILITY: LIMIT THEOREMS II, SPRING HOMEWORK PROBLEMS
PROBABILITY: LIMIT THEOREMS II, SPRING 218. HOMEWORK PROBLEMS PROF. YURI BAKHTIN Instructions. You are allowed to work on solutions in groups, but you are required to write up solutions on your own. Please
More informationQuestion 1. The correct answers are: (a) (2) (b) (1) (c) (2) (d) (3) (e) (2) (f) (1) (g) (2) (h) (1)
Question 1 The correct answers are: a 2 b 1 c 2 d 3 e 2 f 1 g 2 h 1 Question 2 a Any probability measure Q equivalent to P on F 2 can be described by Q[{x 1, x 2 }] := q x1 q x1,x 2, 1 where q x1, q x1,x
More informationIntroduction to Stochastic Optimization Part 4: Multi-stage decision
Introduction to Stochastic Optimization Part 4: Multi-stage decision problems April 23, 29 The problem ξ = (ξ,..., ξ T ) a multivariate time series process (e.g. future interest rates, future asset prices,
More informationTHE FAST FOURIER TRANSFORM ALGORITHM IN RUIN THEORY FOR THE CLASSICAL RISK MODEL
y y THE FST FORIER TRNSFORM LGORITHM IN RIN THEORY FOR THE CLSSICL RISK MODEL Susan M. itts niversity of Cambridge bstract We focus on numerical evaluation of some quantities of interest in ruin theory,
More informationOn an Effective Solution of the Optimal Stopping Problem for Random Walks
QUANTITATIVE FINANCE RESEARCH CENTRE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE RESEARCH CENTRE Research Paper 131 September 2004 On an Effective Solution of the Optimal Stopping Problem for Random Walks Alexander Novikov and
More informationDiscounted probabilities and ruin theory in the compound binomial model
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 26 (2000) 239 250 Discounted probabilities and ruin theory in the compound binomial model Shixue Cheng a, Hans U. Gerber b,, Elias S.W. Shiu c,1 a School of Information,
More informationOn the convergence of sequences of random variables: A primer
BCAM May 2012 1 On the convergence of sequences of random variables: A primer Armand M. Makowski ECE & ISR/HyNet University of Maryland at College Park armand@isr.umd.edu BCAM May 2012 2 A sequence a :
More information1 Basics of probability theory
Examples of Stochastic Optimization Problems In this chapter, we will give examples of three types of stochastic optimization problems, that is, optimal stopping, total expected (discounted) cost problem,
More informationMATH39001 Generating functions. 1 Ordinary power series generating functions
MATH3900 Generating functions The reference for this part of the course is generatingfunctionology by Herbert Wilf. The 2nd edition is downloadable free from http://www.math.upenn. edu/~wilf/downldgf.html,
More informationSTOCHASTIC PERRON S METHOD AND VERIFICATION WITHOUT SMOOTHNESS USING VISCOSITY COMPARISON: OBSTACLE PROBLEMS AND DYNKIN GAMES
STOCHASTIC PERRON S METHOD AND VERIFICATION WITHOUT SMOOTHNESS USING VISCOSITY COMPARISON: OBSTACLE PROBLEMS AND DYNKIN GAMES ERHAN BAYRAKTAR AND MIHAI SÎRBU Abstract. We adapt the Stochastic Perron s
More informationMath 6810 (Probability) Fall Lecture notes
Math 6810 (Probability) Fall 2012 Lecture notes Pieter Allaart University of North Texas September 23, 2012 2 Text: Introduction to Stochastic Calculus with Applications, by Fima C. Klebaner (3rd edition),
More information