Investigating Neutrality and Lack of Neutrality of Money in Iranian Economy

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1 AENSI Journals Advancs in Environmnal Biology Journal hom pag: hp:// Invsigaing Nuraliy and Lack of Nuraliy of Mony in Iranian Economy Abolghasm Esnaashari Amiri Dparmn of Economics, Payam Noor Univrsiy, Iran ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Aricl hisory: Rcivd Spmbr 23 Rcivd in rvisd form 24 Ocobr 23 Accpd 5 Ocobr 23 Availabl onlin 4 Novmbr 23 Kywords: Nuraliy Mony lack of nuraliy Iranian conomy Monary variabls ar variabls ha masurd in rms of currn prics such as nominal producion, nominal inrs ra, nominal invsmn, nominal consumpion, nominal mony supply, govrnmn spnding basd on currn prics and oil incoms basd on currn prics. This sudy invsigas invsigaing nuraliy and lack of nuraliy of mony in Iranian conomy. Th rsuls of his rsarch show ha monary policis in Iran's conomic ar nuraliy. So, for simula producion in h Iranian conomy, conomic policymakrs should noic ha canno b rsord o monary policis. INTRODUCTION 23 AENSI Publishr All righs rsrvd. Thr ar diffrn viws abou h inracion bwn monary and ral scors of conomy. Alhough h classical dualiy hory bfor h gra crisis of 929 did no giv any inracion bwn ral and nominal variabls in h shor and long rm, bu oday many conomiss bliv ha changs in prics and nominal mony sock, i.. impulss, can affc h bhavior of ral variabls such as oupu and mploymn in h shor rm. In nw hory classics, mony is a nural facor. According o his hory in a closd conomy, anicipad changs in h amoun mony lad o proporional changs in nominal variabls lik prics and wags []. Wihou having an impac on ral variabl, in an opn conomy wih flxibl xchang ras, h nominal xchang ra changs as appropria. Th basic ida is ha any changs do no rsul in h producion, mploymn, inrs ras and ral xchang ras and so on. Th only xcpion rlad o ransacion coss whn changing hir ass porfolio (bwn mony and ohr financial asss). Sinc h changs in nominal inrs ras, affc h ral dmand for mony, som ar ral ffcs of h channl. Howvr, his ffc is no larg nough Jusify conomic flucuaions. Morovr, if h volailiy monary policy or o chang h cos of inrmdiaion, savings ras, invsmn and ass mainnanc habis in h righ dircion, can b obain diffrn rsuls. For xampl, incras in lgal rsrvs or sablish rsricions on inrs paid o dposis, rducs inrmdiaion coss and h willingnss of individuals o kp hir dposis. Ths cass, lik a monary conracion, lowrs h pric lvl and ohr nominal variabls bu, wih h dcrasd producion, mploymn and invsmn. So In h fac of such impulss, h Nominal and ral variabls ar moving in on dircion. On h ohr hand Ral momnum Such as rising oil prics in an oil-imporing conomis Lads o rduc producion and rais prics (vn assuming consan currncy basis). In his cas, h pric lvl changs producd in h opposi dircion. In an opn conomy wih fixd xchang ras Monary, auhoriis canno drmin h amoun of h amoun of mony [2]. In ordr o kp mony growh, govrnmn mus mak som rsricions on h forign rad (goods and forign asss). Such rsricions may hav a ral impac on producion. In conomic hory, h inracion bwn nominal and ral variabls is no rjcd, bu how dpnds on h naur of momnum. Howvr, Nuraliy of mony is among h mos basic prdicions of classical hory and accordingly N monary impulss hav ral ffcs h concp changs in h monary bas. Alhough monary impulss mak hug flucuaions in prics and ohr nominal variabls, i dos no chang Producion, mploymn and ral wags. Mos conomiss' nuraliy dos no accp mony a las for shor priods. In fac, many rsarchrs hav aribud a larg shar of rad volailiy o monary impulss. Common poin of viw hs groups i is monary xpansion is Simulaing ral conomic aciviy. As a monary conracion lads o Rcssion, Kynsians and proponns of school mony is no disinguish whn analyss of monary variabls on ral bwn anicipad mony and unanicipad mony. In his parn, anicipad mony and sysmaic monary policy also mak a ral impac [3]. For xampl, opponns of monary union and a fixd xchang ra bliv ha policis ar o prvn i counris wih sysmaic and indpndn monary policy o nuraliz h ffc of ach counry's spcific impuls. Corrsponding Auhor: Abolghasm Esnaashari Amiri, Dparmn of Economics, Payam Noor Univrsiy, Iran

2 342 Abolghasm Esnaashari Amiri Economiss lik Romr [4] ha sysmaic monary policy ld o h nd of long pos-war rcssions. Also liraur ha valuas h arging nominal GNP, I is basd on h blif ha adqua sysmaic policis, rducs h volailiy of producion. Bsids ha, hr is dba ovr h impac of mony on ral variabls momnum asymmry dals wih monary issus ha ar fundamnal o his qusion ar h posiiv and ngaiv mony supply shocks similar ffcs on h (absolu rms) on conomic aciviy. Th 93s, som conomiss such as Kyns and Pigou [5] raisd h argumn ha monary policy can hav asymmric ffcs on oupu in priods of rcssion and conomic boom. Indd i b considrd par of h supply curv is vrical monary policy will hav lss impac on producion during h boom. Nw classics and mpirical liraur mphasizs ha h ffcs of monary impulss canno disinguish bwn posiiv and ngaiv monary shocks. If his argumn is corrc and is an imporan disincion, hn h radiional approach is no valid for unxpcd changs in monary nuraliy s and ignors conomic condiions whhr in rcssion or in boom priods o analyz h ffcs of monary impulss. Nuraliy of mony: In h framwork of gnral quilibrium modls of mony, nuraliy of mony can b dfining as follows Harris Laurnc [6]: Whn ha mony is nural in h primary balanc (du o changs in h nominal mony supply), h nw balanc ha achivd whn h valus of all ral variabls in h mony supply. Obviously, if h modl dos no saisfy hs condiions, non-nural mony, in discussing h nuraliy of mony, conomiss hav poind o a paricular horical xprinc naurally and hy no obsrvd dircly in ral conomis. This paricular horical xprinc is a onc unxpcd and lasing chang in h lvl of mony, Wha is imporan in his cas, h surfac is nw mony for a rlaivly long priod, b so sur ha is los du o mporary and ransin changs. On h ohr hand, changs in h volum of mony mus b unforsn, if you ar awar of h conomic unis of h incrasd volum of mony, knowing ha chang will incras h pric lvl in h fuur, hir xpcaions hward by h volum of nw mony and is ffcs. In h 96s and bfor h s ha don abou h long-rm nuraliy of mony summarizd a paramrs of a rgrssion quaion whr h dpndn variabls wr simad acual producion and h indpndn variabls inrrupions mony. Ths rviws wr lss han wha considrd a prmann chang in h mony. Upda rvoluion uni roo" on issus rlad o im sris his issu can b solvd graly as if a im sris is no uni roo his implis ha hs prmann changs ovr im no ncounrd and flucuaions obsrvd ar mporary and ransin. In fac, h prsnc or absnc of prmann changs in on conomic variabl ha shows xacly wha h im sris variabl. Th ida is ha h rsarchrs as Fishr and cira [7, 8] and King and Wason [9, and ] usd h nw pracics wr inroducd o s h nuraliy of mony in h long-rm proposiions. Lucas [2] and Sargn [3] xampls show ha i is impossibl o b nural, long-rm s using an abbrviad form. Exampls is rprsn h raional xpcaions wih shor-rm absnc of nural xognous variabl craion ha follow a saionary procss, so ha h daa gnrad by hs modls do no includ prmann changs ncssary o dircly s h long-rm nuraliy. In hs modls, Lucas and Sargn [2, 3] argu ha o s h nuraliy horm i is ssnial o build h bhavioral modl has xplaind fully. Bn criicizd by Lucas and Sargn [2, 3] dpnds o saionary. Nominal variabls in h modl ar ha non-saionary, long-rm nuraliy s can b giv wihou full knowldg of h bhavioral modl. Howvr, whn h variabls ar cumulaiv, long-rm nuraliy canno b sd using h modl ar summarizd. Insad, h final form of modl is ncssary o show h dynamic rsponss of variabls o srucural abnormaliis. Sandard rsuls from h simulanous quaions conomric analysis shows ha i is no clar h final form of srucural conomric modls, bcaus h formr is a s of rsricions o idnify srucural abnormaliis. King and Wason [9, and ] Chck ha h simad valu of long-rm lasiciy of oupu h mony dpnds on h subjc wha w hav assumd abou h lasiciy of ach of h hr following: Tnsion Simulanous oupu wih rgard o mony Tnsion Simulanous Mony du o h oupu Tnsion Long-rm Mony du o h oupus Alhough h many amps by conomiss had bn don o s h abov proposiions bu rcn dvlopmns in undrsanding characrisics of im sris variabls, is h qusion Saisical validiy of ss usd in prvious xprimnal sudis. Fishr-Sar [8] and King and Wason [] showd nuraliy ss, whn ar valid ha will hav nominal and ral variabls som condiions non-saionary and drmind. Givn ha anion has no bn in ancin liraur o nuraliy of mony o his opic should b xcludd rsuls from hs sudis. Thy showd ha nuraliy ss ar possibl whn ha accumulaion ims (Ordr of ingraion). Nominal and ral variabls is a las onc on and ss of nuraliy cloud ar possibl whn h accumulaion ims h nominal variabls qual o accumulaion ims of ral variabls sum b on [4]. This is bcaus of h obvious whn h monary variabl is fill wih zro-ordr I(), sris is sady and mans prmann changs in mony supply did no occur and h obsrvd flucuaions in mony supply,

3 343 Abolghasm Esnaashari Amiri changs rprsn mporary and ransin, and hrfor canno b s cass nuraliy and supr nuraliy of mony. Variabl im sris mony s run nuraliy mus b a las I() and o s h nuraliy of mony cloud mus b a las I(2). In his rgard, h hr ar insparabl: Whn changing mony I() and h ral oupu variabl I() and i happnd suggss ha prmann changs in monary variabls, bu i has don no happn in acual producion. I canno b rjcd hypohsis of mony nuraliy. Whn monary and ral variabls boh ar I() mans a prmann chang o occur is variabl in boh so possibl o s h nuraliy of mony using Th usual mhods of conomrics lik OLS is providd wih assumd o b xognous monary variabl. Whn changing mony I(2) and ral oupu variabl is I() Mans ha prmann changs in mony growh ras and acual producion lvls occurrd and has providd possibiliy horm cloud nuraliy of mony. MATERIALS AND METHODS Barro [5] Modl basd on his xprimnal work is basd unanicipad componns of mony affc on ral conomic variabls among unmploymn ra or lvl of producion. Anicipad growh in h Borough mony knows par of h procss of drmining h mony growh is prdicabl basd on availabl informaion, ovr im, so knows his job his procss of dcion. Svral horical and xprimnal works on crain considraions, Barro [5] simas h following quaion As Drmin h bs procss for mony growh, for Amrica's conomy: DM = % 97 + / 48DM + /7DM 2 + %7FEDV + %3UN 2 R = / 9 D. W = / 9 () Masur of growh is logarihmic and as DM = gm gm. M is h annual avrag volum of mony in Amrica. FEDV masur ha indicas h dviaion of govrnmn spnding from is normal lvl, UN is h unmploymn variabl is dfind as Log (U/-U) and u is h annual avrag unmploymn ra. Unforsn growh is OLS simas of was Cofficins of quaion () h dpndn variabl is acual mony growh (DMI). To s h ffc h anicipad mony on ral variabls, forificaion simas producion lvls and unmploymn currn and dlayd valus DMR and govrnmn spnding and variabl im T: U G log = α + αdmr + α 2DMR + α 4 + ε U Y µ (2) y logy = β + βdmr + β 2DMR + β3 logg + β 4T + ε (3) y Thrfor, ha ε is snnc rror, G govrnmn spnding o a fixd pric, Y GDP o consan prics, and T rprsns h im variabl, improvd chnology and nhancd prformanc. Componns ar only ffciv if unanicipad mony on ral variabls componns and is prdiciv ar unaffcd on ral variabls, his is mony nural and no ffc on acual paramrs of h conomy. Gordon modl [6]: Gordon Firs, h nominal oupu growh variabl o nr in hir modl insad aggrga dmand, Scond uss inflaion of h la as prfrrd variabl in hir simaion modl, and h producion modl simas as: YC = β αz + βyc β 2+ i P + W (4) Tha in z Of vcor of variabls known by conomic agns a im - is affcing nominal incom or producion (DXT) Th modl DXT = α Z + V was simad and alrnaiv b mniond in h modl. P Inflaion, dlayd and W is snnc rror. In addiion, YC = Y Yn h ra of growh of ral oupu 879 shows of is naural growh. Inflammaory samns wih dlays in h abov quaion was s Kynsian viw of h Gordon h possibl ffcs of inflaion wih a dlay (informaion dlay) on currn producion. Mishikin modl [7]: Th modl faurs is dlays during h ransfr of h mony supply or h o Producion changs. In summary, Mishikin [7] modl considrs h following: X = Z α + U (5)

4 344 Abolghasm Esnaashari Amiri Y ( X X i ) + δ i X i + ε (6) = Y Bi So ha is Y Unmploymn or ral oupu, Y is naural lvl, X Aggrga dmand variabl (mony growh or inflaion or h growh of nominal gross produc), X Prdic X wih informaion -, Bi cofficins, ε and u rror rms. Z Vcor of variabls usd wih h informaion availabl o priod - o prdic X,α is vcor of cofficins, hus w hav: X = Z α (7) Nuraliy of mony and monary policy mans ha hr is no corrlaion bwn policy prdicd Y Y and δ cofficins ar consraind o zro for X and in his cas, δ = s is h nuraliy of mony s. Psaran modl [8]: Th modl is basd on Barro [6] modl sablishd an imporan logical poin and has raisd is Kynsian modl. psaran [8] focus on variabls in h modl, mony is FEDV and blivs ha idnify h valu of his variabl do no b simply in priod -. To avoid his problm, Psaran dvlopmn will h modl prdics ha govrnmn spnding and in h FEDV Barro [6] uss insad FEDV, So h variabl is projcd govrnmn spnding. Psaran [8] modl du o diffrncs FEDV prdicd from is acual valu, h calculad valus Psaran [8] of mony growh forcas DMR is diffrn from h Barro [6] and i uss in hir modl wih Mark DMR basd on Barro [6] daa simas h modl oupu and unmploymn and hn using non-nsd hs wo modls h s agains ach ohr. Fishr-Sar Modl [9]: Shlly & Wallac [9] in an aricl nild Monary nuraliy s in h long run in Mxico. In addiion, Wallac [2] in an aricl nild "Nuraliy of mony in h long run: h cas of Guamala". Th mhod uilizs Fishr & Sar has sard o a similar sudy. Th modl usd simas ar o mhod ARIMA and Logarihmic linar is as follows: α d ( ) ( m ) ( ) ( y L m ) = b L y + u (8) ( ) ( y ) ( ) ( m L y = c L ) m + w (9) Whr m, y ar rspcivly h logarihms of mony and gnra W and U and α = d = hav zro man. Fishr & Sar [7] provs ha b k of mhod OLS in simaion of quaion (9) Can us Guid o s nuraliy: y y = + b + ( m m ) () k α k k k k Basd on h modl for Mxico during h priod b rjcd Long-run nuraliy of mony, alhough h no rjcd shorr priod nuraliy of mony. Basd on for Guamala during h priod 95-2 is Mony Nural. Th s is on ral GDP and GDP pr capia and similar rsuls. Modl usd in his sudy: In his scion, w masur h impac of mony on ral conomic variabls w us of wo ways. A ral variabl such as mploymn and ral conomic growh ar rgrssion on ohr variabls such as ral mony, ral growh ra of govrnmn spnding and growh ra of oil rvnus and onc h acual amoun of mony ar rgrssion on ral conomic growh ra, ral growh ra of govrnmn spnding and growh ra oil rvnus. If monary policy b ffciv on ral variabls should is significan, h cofficins of hs variabls and so wha Mark i is lin monary policy has a posiiv impac on ral conomic variabls. This par of h modl is drivd from modl Mc G and Sasiak [2] and Yamak and Kucukal [2] Chcks Bing nural or no nural monary policy using annual daa from 959 o 28. Th conomric analysis has don using sofwar Microfi 4. Gnral informaion h modl is as a sysm rgrssion and includs hr variabls ndognous and hr variabls xognous as follows: Ral conomic growh ra (rgdp) Employmn ra (E) Endognous variabls and modl of mony growh (rm), Growh ra of govrnmn rvnus (rio), Exchang ra in h paralll mark (PEX) and ral govrnmn xpndiur growh ra (rg) ar xognous variabls causing modl. Your sysm ouo-rgrssiv dsird is simad using SUR and h opimal modl is slcd basd on informaion criria. As h spcifid

5 345 Abolghasm Esnaashari Amiri ouo-rgrssiv of your sysm, Basd on hs quaions can xpcd abou nural or non-nuraliy of monary policy. In ohr words, monary policy will b nural, if mony is no a significan variabl cofficins or ngaiv impac on ral variabls. Advanag of his modl prsnd ha Mc G and Sasiak [2] xplicily hav poind in hir papr can b cid o Sysm of quaions (In rms of muual and bilaral rlaions bwn modl variabls) and hus hypohsis of raional xpcaions. Th us of an quaion sysm (Th modl usd in his rviw) in is raional xpcaions hypohsis and so h simad quaion sysm, In addiion o h s nuraliy of mony can o s h raional xpcaions hypohsis. During h priod mony from h 4.3 billion rails rachd o billion riyals, Suggss ha h prcn (Volum of mony in cas has 5528-fold). Th figurs suggs ha mony on avrag has grown 24 prcn pr yar. During h priod Iran's conomy xcp for h yars 339, 34 and 363 has xprincd always doubl-digi growh ras. Variabl growh in 353 Pak (abou 57%) and in 342 has bn abou (-5.9%). In his papr, w masur h impac of mony on ral variabls w us of conomric mhods rgrssion simas of mploymn and ral conomic ral mony and ral siz. Wih bginning, w simad mploymn ra (E) on variabl wih coninuous growh wih mploymn ra (E). Variabls ar including wih a consan amoun of mony (rm (-)), Coninuous variabls wih ral conomic growh ra (rgdp), Variabl wih a consan growh ra of ral govrnmn spnding (rg), Variabl wih a consan growh ra of govrnmn rvnus (rio), Paralll mark xchang ra (px), Ral conomic growh ra (rgdp). W simad on variabl wih a consan amoun of mony (rm (-)) Variabl inrval variabl wih h coninuous growh of govrnmn rvnus (rio), Variabl wih a consan growh ra of ral govrnmn spnding (rg), Variabl wih a consan mploymn ra (E). RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Uni roo s: ADF s invsigas h prsnc of uni roo in im sris daa. Srong ngaiv numbrs of uni roo rjc h null hypohsis of uni roo a som lvl of confidnc. ADF framwork o chck h saionary of im sris has bn givn in following quaion: X = β n + β 2 + θx + α i X + ε () i= Whr, ε is whi nois rror rm. This s drmins whhr h simas of θ ar qual o zro or no. Fullr [23] has providd cumulaiv disribuion of h ADF saisics by showing ha if h calculad-raio (valu) of h cofficin is lss han criical valu from Fullr abl, hn x said o b saionary. Howvr, his s is no rliabl for small sampl daa s du o is siz and powr propris [24, 25]. For small sampl daa s, hs ss sm o ovr rjc h null hypohss whn i is ru and accp i whn i is fals. Th rsuls of ADF s IS displaying in Tabl. Tabl : Rsuls of uni roo by ADF s. Variabls Lvl s Diffrncs ingrad of ordr rgdp * I() E * I() rm * I() rio * I() PEX * I() rg * I() No: * dno saisical significanc a % Th rsuls rpord in Tabl show ha null hypohsis of ADF uni roo is accpd in cas of E, rm, PEX and rg variabls bu rjcd in firs diffrnc a % lvl of significanc. This uni roo s indica ha E, rm, PEX and rg variabls considrd in h prsn sudy ar diffrnc saionary I () whil rgdp and rio variabls ar lvl saionary I() as pr ADF s. Basd on his s, i has bn infrrd ha E, rm, PEX and rg variabls ar ingrad of ordr on I (), whil rgdp and rio variabls ar ingrad of ordr zro I (). Th mpirical rsul basd on ARDL ss rpad showd ha h mos significan brak for variabls of undr invsigaion ar consisn. Thrfor, a his sag w includ on dummis variabl of war 98 in ordr o ak ino accoun h srucural braks in h sysm. Bginning Employmn ra (E), W sima on Variabl wih a consan growh ra of mploymn (E), Variabl wih a consan amoun of mony (rm (-)), Variabl Wih inrrupion ral conomic growh ra (rgdp), Variabl wih inrrupion ral govrnmn xpndiur growh ra (rg), Variabl wih inrrupion growh ra of govrnmn rvnus (rio), Exchang ra in h paralll mark (px). Th simad cofficins of h long-run rlaionship and rror Corrcion Mod (ECM) ar displaying in Tabl 2 and 3.

6 346 Abolghasm Esnaashari Amiri Tabl 2: Esimad long-run and ECM cofficins using ARDL (,,,,,,) modl for firs rgrssion. Esimad long-run cofficins Esimad ECM cofficins (E as dpndn variabl) Rgrssor Cofficin -Raio (prob) Rgrssor Cofficin -Raio (prob) E(-) [2] DE(-) [] rm(-) -..2[49] Drm(-) [8] rgdp(-) [] Drgdp.6.65[] rg(-) [3] Drg. 6.32[2] rio(-) [5] Drio [4] px [8] Dpx [[6] C [5] DC [] DU [4] DDU [3] No: Th ordr of opimum lags is basd on h spcifid ARDL modl. ECM(-) [2] Now, for ral conomic growh ra (rgdp), w sima on variabl wih a consan amoun of mony (rm (-)) Variabl wih a consan growh ra of govrnmn rvnus (rio), Variabl wih a consan growh ra of ral govrnmn spnding (rg), Variabl wih a consan mploymn ra (E). Tabl 3: Esimad long-run and ECM cofficins using ARDL (,,,,,) modl for scond rgrssion. Esimad long-run cofficins Esimad ECM cofficins (rgdp as dpndn variabl) Rgrssor Cofficin -Raio (prob) Rgrssor Cofficin -Raio (prob) E(-) [5] DE(-) [4] rm(-) [2] Drm(-) [] rg(-) [] Drg. 6.28[] rio(-) [4] Drio [3] C [2] DC [] DU [5] DDU [4] No: Th ordr of opimum lags is basd on h spcifid ARDL modl. ECM(-) [] Tabl 2, 3 shows ha in h long run mos cofficins ar saisically significan bu, hr is no saisically significan bwn ral mploymn ra and ral mony ra and also, hr is no bwn ral gross domsic produc and ral mony ra. Also, war cofficin has a vry significan ffc on ral gross domsic produc and ral mploymn ra. Conclusion: Th goal of his papr was o s h xisnc of long run rlaionship drminans of Mony Nuraliy and Supr Nuraliy in Iran. This objciv aidd by h chniqu of Psaran [26] approach o co-ingraion, which prsns non-spurious simas. Subsqunly, our work provids frsh vidnc on h long run rlaionship bwn agriculural ral mploymn ra and ral mony ra and bwn ral gross domsic produc and ral mony ra. A work Sudis prsn wha was obaind of convnional wo-sag approach i suggss ha h only unxpcd monary policy agains anicipad monary policy ar abl o impac on naional producion, Of cours h svriy of his impac and is influnc during has bn vry low and shor afr 2 or 3 yar priod his ffc also b Zro. Y Parn of undr Kynsian Showd ha Yars of imporan lmn affcing on h ral conomy of producion changs has bn changs in govrnmn spnding (Applid o monary policy), his issu was drmind by comparing h modulus of lasiciy of h ral conomy han govrnmn spnding and monary policy. Analyss wr prformd h parn auo rgrssiv disnbud lag also showd ha lasiciy of ral GDP Iran's conomy,toward wo scions xrnal and inrnal cash mony ovr h long rm rspcivly is qual o.9-and.7. Of h sympoms of hs wo cofficins wha obaind and h amoun of conra laral, i shows ha inrnal mony opporuniy o incras lnding in h conomy. I has posiiv impac on invsmn and producion. Of cours is small his indicas ha a Iran's conomy a major par of h bank rsourcs b capurd by public scor and all hs rsourcs dos no Spnd affairs invsmn. Thus h obviously, h priva scor accss is no much h sourcs and invsmns highr lvl. In any cas, sign of his cofficin is posiiv and h xpcd and ha inrnal mony parly ar irriaing for producion. Howvr, Cofficin of xrnal funds so wha was xpcd obaind Ngaiv. Th xpcd bcaus is ha xrnal mony or in ohr words monary bas whn incras lads o pric incrass. Bcaus mpirical raliis of Iran's conomy has shown ha in ach priod rasons (Such as incrasd lvls of db o h bank and or vn incras n cnral bank forign asss), monary bas has incrasd, and is corrsponding is incrasd pric lvl. Th incras pric lvl Ngaiv impac on h purchasing powr of domsic currncy has ld o dvaluaions agains forign currncy and hus forign goods Is mor xpnsiv agains domsic goods. Howvr, sinc producion of xpor goods and gnral manufacuring scor in Iranian conomy, a lo rlad o impors of inrmdia goods and capial and Impors of hs goods also rsuling in incrasd xchang ra and bcom mor xpnsiv rlaiv dclin is crainly. So Counry's produciviy ar

7 347 Abolghasm Esnaashari Amiri affcd and hus a Long-rm rducd producion lvls. Of cours i is minimal and i is somwha abou h posiiv ffcs du i is possibl o incras lnding ha b nural h incras in inrnal funds. So bcoms clar ha gnral in Iranian conomy no produc so affcd changs mony sock. REFERENCES [] Abbasinjad, H. and A. Shafi, 25. Is mony nural in Iran s conomic rally? Quarrly of Tahghigha Eghsadi, 68: [2] Jafarisamimi A. and A. Arfani, 24. Tsing Nuraliy and Supr Nuraliy of mony in h long rm in Iranian conomy. Quarrly of Tahghigha Eghsadi, 67: [3] Shahmoradi A. and A. Nasri, 2. Invsigaing Nuraliy and Supr Nuraliy of mony in Iranian conomy. Quarrly of Pajohsh Namy [4] Romr, P Nw goods, old hory, and h wlfar coss of rad rsricions. Journal of Dvlopmn Economics 43, no. : [5] Kyns, J Draf of: Profssor Pigou on Mony Wag Ras in Rlaion o Un-mploymn", JMK XIV, pp [6] Harris, L., 98. Monary hory. Mc Graw-Hill, Book Company. [7] Fishr, M. and J. Sar, 989. Nuraliis of mony. Dparmn of Economics and Businss, Unpublishd Manuscrip, Norh Carolina Sa Univrsiy. [8] Fishr, M. and J. Sar, 993. Long-Run Nuraliy and Supr nw raliy in an ARIMA Framwork. Amrican Economic Rviw, 83(3): [9] King, R.G. and M.W. Wason, 992. Tsing Long-Run Nuraliy. Naional Burau of Economic Rsarch, Working Papr. [] King, R.G. and M.W. Wason, 994. Th Poswar US Phillips Curv: A Rvisionis Economric Hisory. Carngi-Rochsr Confrnc in Public Policy, No. 4. [] King, R.G. and M.W. Wason, 997. Tsing Long-Run Nuraliy. Fdral Rsrv Bank of Richmond Economic Quarrly (Summr), 69-. [2] Lucas, R.E., 972. Expcaions and h Nuraliy of Mony. Journal of Economic Thory, Vol. 4:3-24. [3] Sargn, T., 97. A No on h Acclraions Conrovrsy. Journal of Mony, Crdi and Banking, Vol. 3. [4] Srlis, A. and K. Zisimous, 2. Monary Aggrgaion and h Nuraliy of Mony. Economic Inquiry, 39(): [5] Barro, R.J., 978. Unanicipad mony, oupu and pric lvl in Unid Sas. Journal of Poliical Economy, Vol. 86. [6] Gordon, J., 982. Pric Inria and policy Inffcivnss in h US Journal of Pollkal Economy, 9: [7] Mishikin, F.S., 983. A Raional Expcaions Approach o Macro conomrics. Chicago, Univrsiy of Chicago Prss. [8] Psaran, M.H., 983. A criiqu of h proposd Tss of h Naural Ra-Raional Expcaions Hypohsis. Economic Journal, 92, pp [9] Shlly, L. and H. Wallac, 27. Long Run Nuraliy of Mony in Mxico. conomía Mxicana, XVI(2): [2] Wallac, F.H., 24. Long-run mony nuraliy: h cas of Guamala. Working Papr, Dparmn of Managmn and Marking, Prairi. [2] Mc G R. and R. Sasiak 985. Dos Anicipad Monary Policy Mar? Anohr Look. Journal of Mony, Crdi and Banking, No. 7. pp [22] Yamak, R. and Y. Kucukal, 998. Anicipad Vrsus Unanicipad Mony in Turky. Yapi Krdi Economic Rviw, 9(): [23] Fullr, W.A., 976. Inroducion o Saisical Tim Sris. Nw York, Wily. [24] Harris, R. and R. Sollis, 23. Applid Tim Modling and Forcasing. NwYork: Wilys. [25] DJong, D.N., J.C. Nankrvis, N.E. Savin and C.H.Whiman, 992. "In- graion vrsus rnd saionariy in im sris" Economrica 6: [26] Psaran, H.M., Y. Shin, and J.R. Smih, 2. Bounds sing approachs o h analysis of rlaionships. Journal of Applid Economrics, 6: