Stochastic integral. Introduction. Ito integral. References. Appendices Stochastic Calculus I. Geneviève Gauthier.

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Stochastic integral. Introduction. Ito integral. References. Appendices Stochastic Calculus I. Geneviève Gauthier."

Transcription

1 Ito Calculus I Geneviève Gauthier HEC Montréal

2 Riemann Ito The Ito The theories of stochastic and stochastic di erential equations have initially been developed by Kiyosi Ito around 194 (one of the rst important papers was published in 1942).

3 Riemann I Riemann Ito Let f : R! R be a real-valued function. Typically, when we speak of the of a function f, we refer to the Riemann, R b f a (t) dt, which calculates the area under the curve t! f (t) between the bounds a and b.

4 Riemann II Riemann Ito First, we must realize that not all functions are Riemann integrable. Let s explain a little further : in order to construct the Riemann of the function f on the interval [a, b], we divide such an interval into n subintervals of equal length b a n and, for each of them, we determine the greatest and the smallest value taken by the function f.

5 Riemann Ito Riemann III Thus, for every k 2 f1,..., ng, the smallest value taken by the function f on the interval a + (k 1) b a n, a + k b a n is f (n) k inf f (t) b a a + (k 1) t a + k b a n n and the greatest is _ f (n) k sup f (t) b a a + (k 1) n t a + k b n a.

6 Riemann Ito Riemann IV The area under the curve t! f (t) between the bounds a + (k 1) b a n and a + k b a n is therefore greater than the area b a f (n) k of the rectangle of base b a and height f (n) n k, and smaller than the area b a with the same base but with height As a consequence, if we de ne n _ f (n) k _ f (n) k. n of the rectangle I n (f ) n b k=1 n a f (n) k _ n b and I n (f ) n k=1 a _ f (n) k then I n (f ) Z b a f (t) dt _ I n (f ).

7 Riemann V Riemann Ito Illustrations of I n (f ) and _ I n (f )

8 Riemann Ito Riemann VI Riemann integrable functions are those for which the limits _ lim n! I n (f ) and lim n! I n (f ) exist and are equal. We then de ne the Riemann of the function f as Z b a _ f (t) dt lim I n! n (f ) = lim I n (f ). n! It is possible to show that the R b f a (t) dt exists for any function f continuous on the interval [a, b]. Many other functions are Riemann integrable.

9 Riemann VII Riemann Ito However, there exist functions that are not Riemann integrable. For example, let s consider the indicator function I Q : [, 1]! f, 1g which takes the value of 1 if the argument is rational and otherwise. _ I n = 1, which Then, for all natural number n, I n = and implies that the Riemann is not de ned for such a function.

10 Riemann VIII Riemann Ito We will examine a very simple case : the Riemann for boxcar functions, i.e. the functions f : [; )! R which admit the representation f (t) = ci (a,b] (t), a < b, c 2 R where I (a,b] represents the indicator function I (a,b] (t) = 1 if t 2 (a, b] if t /2 (a, b].

11 Riemann IX Riemann Ito If f (t) = ci (a,b] (t) then the Riemann of f is Z t f (s) ds = = Z t 8 < : ci (a,b] (s) ds if t a c (t a) if a < t b c (b a) if t > b.

12 Ito I Ito Let fw t : t g be a standard Brownian motion built on a ltered probability space (Ω, F, F, P), F = ff t : t g. Technical condition. Since we will work with almost sure equalities 1, we require that the set of events which have zero probability to occur are included in the sigma-algebra F, i.e. that the set N = fa 2 F : P (A) = g F. That way, if X is F t measurable and Y = X P almost surely, then we know that Y is F t measurable.

13 Ito Ito II Let fx t : t g be a predictable stochastic. It is tempting to de ne the stochastic of X with respect to W, pathwise, by using a generalization of the Stieltjes : 8ω 2 Ω, Z X (ω) dw (ω). That would be possible if the paths of Brownian motion W had bounded variation, i.e. if they could be expressed as the di erence of two non-decreasing functions. But, since Brownian motion paths do not have bounded variation, it is not possible to use such an approach. We must de ne the stochastic with respect to the Brownian motion as a whole, i.e. as a stochastic in itself, and not pathwise. 1 X = Y P almost surely if the set of ω for which X is di erent from Y has a probability of zero, i.e. P fω 2 Ω : X (ω) 6= Y (ω)g =.

14 Ito I Ito De nition We call X a basic stochastic if X admits the following representation: X t (ω) = C (ω) I (a,b] (t) where a < b 2 R and C is a random variable, F a and square-integrable, i.e. E P C 2 <. measurable Note that such a is adapted to the ltration F. Indeed, 8 < if t a X t = C if a < t b : if b < t which is F measurable therefore F t measurable which is F a measurable therefore F t measurable which is F measurable therefore F t measurable.

15 Ito II Ito In fact, X is more than F adapted, it is F predictable, but the notion of predictable is more delicate to de ne when we work with continuous-time es. Note, nevertheless, that adapted es with continuous path are predictable. Intuitively, if X t represents the number of security shares held at time t, then X t (ω) = C (ω) I (a,b] (t) means that immediately after prices are announced at time a and based on the information available at time a (C being F a measurable) we buy C (ω) security shares which we hold until time b. At that time, we sell them all.

16 Ito III Ito Theorem F adapted es, the paths of which are left-continuous, are F predictable es. In particular, F adapted es with continuous paths are F predictible. (cf. Revuz and Yor)

17 Ito IV Ito De nition The stochastic of X with respect to the Brownian motion is de ned as Z t X s dw s (ω) = C (ω) (W t^b (ω) W t^a (ω)) 8 < if t a = C (ω) (W t (ω) W a (ω)) if a < t b : C (ω) (W b (ω) W a (ω)) if b < t. Note that, for all t, the R t X s dw s is a random variable. n R o t Moreover, X s dw s : t is a stochastic.

18 Ito V Ito Paths of a basic stochastic, and its stochastic with respect to the Brownian motion ,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 1 t ,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 1 t Integrale_stochastique.xls

19 VI Ito Ito Note that Z t X s dw s = Z X s I (,t] (s) dw s. Exercise. Verify it!

20 Ito VII Ito Interpretation. If, for example, the Brownian motion W represents the variation of the share present value relative to its initial value (W t = S t S, where S t is the share present value at time t), then R t X sdw s is the present value of the pro t earned by the investor. This example is somewhat lame: since the Brownian motion is not lower bounded, the example implies that it is possible for the share price to take negative values. Oops! Note on the graphs that, over the time period when the investor holds a constant number of security shares, the present value of his or her pro t uctuates. That is only caused by share price uctuations.

21 Ito VIII Ito Theorem Lemma 1. If X is a basic stochastic, then Z t X s dw s : t is a (Ω, F, F, P) martingale. Proof of Lemma 1. Recall that, if M is a martingale and τ a stopping time, then the stopped stochastic M τ = fm t^τ : t g is also a martingale. Since the Brownian motion is a martingale, and τ a and τ b where 8ω 2 Ω, τ a (ω) = a and τ b (ω) = b are stopping times, then the stochastic es W τ a = fw t^a : t g and W τ b = fw t^b : t g are both martingales.

22 Ito Now, let s verify condition (M1). If t a, then Z t E P X u dw u IX Ito = E P [jc (W t^b W t^a )j] = E P [jc (W t W t )j] =.

23 Ito By contrast, if t > a, then Z t E P X u dw u X Ito = E P [jc (W t^b W a )j] = E P [jc j jw t^b W a j] h re P C 2 (W t^b W a ) 2i (see next page) ii = re hc P 2 E h(w P t^b W a ) 2 jf a C being F a mble. = = re P hc 2 E P h(w t^b W a ) 2ii W t^b W a being independent from F a. q (t ^ b a) E P [C 2 ] <

24 Ito XI Ito Justi cation for the inequality: for any random variable Y such that E Y 2 <, we have Var [Y ] = E Y 2 (E [Y ]) 2 which implies that E [Y ] q E [Y 2 ].

25 Ito = With respect to condition (M2), Z t X s dw s 8 < if t a C (W t W a ) if a < t b : C (W b W a ) if b < t. XII Ito F measurable therefore F t measurable F t measurable, F b measurable therefore F t measurable

26 Ito XIII Ito Condition (M3) is also veri ed since 8s, t 2 R, s < t, Z t E P X u dw u jf s = E P [C (W t^b W t^a ) jf s ].

27 Ito XIV Ito But, if s a, then F s F a. Since C is F a measurable, then Z t h i E P X u dw u jf s = E P E P [C (W t^b W t^a ) jf a ] jf s = h E P CE P [(W t^b i W t^a ) jf a ] jf s 2 3 = E P 6 7 4C (W a^b W a^a ) jf s 5 {z } =W a W a = since W τ a and W τ b are martingales, = = Z s X u dw u.

28 Ito XV Ito If s > a, then C is F s measurable and, as a consequence, Z t E P X u dw u jf s = E P [C (W t^b W t^a ) jf s ] = CE P [(W t^b W t^a ) jf s ] = C (W s^b W s^a ) = Z s X u dw u. The R X s dw s is indeed a martingale.

29 Ito I We will need a few results later on, that we shall now start to develop. Since the Ito for basic es is a martingale, then Z t Z E P X s dw s = E P X s dw s =. The next result will allow us to calculate variances and covariances.

30 Ito II Theorem Lemma 2. If X and Y are basic es, then for all t, Z t Z t Z t E P X s Y s ds = E P X s dw s Y s dw s.

31 Ito III Proof of Lemma 2. It will be su cient to show that Z Z Z E P X s Y s ds = E P X s dw s Y s dw s since being basic es, are also basic es. X = CI (a,b] and Y = eci (ea, eb] X I (,t] = CI (a^t,b^t], Y I (,t] = eci (ea^t, eb^t] et XY I (,t] = C eci ((a_ea)^t,(b^eb)^t] (1)

32 Ito IV Thus, if equation (1) is veri ed, we can use it to establish the third equality in the following calculation: Z t E P X s Y s ds Z = E P X s Y s I (,t] (s) ds Z = E P X s I (,t] (s) Y s I (,t] (s) ds Z Z = E P X s I (,t] (s) dw s Y s I (,t] (s) dw s Z t Z t = E P X s dw s Y s dw s.

33 Ito So, let s establish Equation (1) E P Z X s Y s ds V Z Z = E P X s dw s Y s dw s. Three cases must be treated separately: i (i) (a, b] \ ea, eb =?, i (ii) (a, b] = ea, eb, i i (iii) (a, b] 6= ea, eb and (a, b] \ ea, eb 6=?.

34 Ito VI Proof of (i). i Since (a, b] \ ea, eb =?, we can assume, without loss of generality, that a < b ea < eb. Since X s Y s = C eci (a,b] (s) I (ea, eb] (s) =, then E P R X sy s ds =.

35 Ito VII Now, since C, ec and (W b W a ) are F ea measurable, Z Z E P X s dw s Y s dw s = E P h C (W b W a ) ec W e b W ea i h h = E P E P ii C (W b W a ) ec Wb e W ea jfea 2 3 = E P 6 4C ec (W b W a ) E P 7 Wb e W ea jf ea 5 {z } = = E P Z X s Y s ds =W ea W ea = thus establishing Equation (1) in this particular case.

36 Ito Then, VIII Proof of (ii). Let s now assume that (a, b] = E P Z X s Y s ds = E P Z = E P C ec C eci (a,b] dt Z I (a,b] dt i = E P h C ec (b a) = (b a) E P h C ec i. i ea, eb.

37 Ito On the other hand, IX Z Z E P X s dw s Y s dw s h i = E P C (W b W a ) ec (W b W a ) h = E P C ec h ii E P (W b W a ) 2 jf a since C and ec are F a = E P h C ec E P h (W b W a ) 2ii mbles since h W b W a is independent of F a i = E P C ec (b a) since W b W a is N (, b a) h i Z = (b a) E P C ec = E P X s Y s ds thus establishing Equation (1) for this other particular case.

38 Ito Proof of (iii). We have that (a, b] 6= i (a, b] \ ea, eb 6=?. X Basic i ea, eb and a = a _ ea and b = b ^ eb. On the one hand, Z Z E P X s Y s ds = E P CI (a,b] eci (ea, eb] dt Z = E P C eci (a,b ]dt Z = E C P ec I (a,b ]dt h i = E P C ec (b a ) h i = (b a ) E P C ec.

39 Ito XI In what follows, in case there were intervals of the form (α, β] where α β, then we de ne (α, β] =?. On the other hand, since Z X s dw s = C (W b W a ) = C (W b W b + W b W a + W a W a ) = C (W b W b ) + C (W b W a ) + C (W a W a ) Z Z Z = C I (b,b] dw s + C I (a,b ] dw s + C I (a,a ] dw s, (2)

40 Ito Z Y s dw s = ec Wb e W ea XII = ec W e b W b + W b W a + W a W ea = ec Wb e W b + ec (W b W a ) + ec (W a Z Z Z W ea ) = ec I (b,eb] dw s + ec I (a,b ] dw s + ec I (ea,a ] dw s (3)

41 Ito and XIII (a, a ] \ (ea, a ] =?, (a, a ] \ (a, b ] =?, (a, a ] \ i (a, b ] \ (ea, a ] =?, (a, b ] \ b, eb =?, (b, b] \ (ea, a ] =?, (b, b] \ (a, b ] =?, (b, b] \ i b, eb =?, i b, eb =?, we can use the results obtained in points (i) and (ii) in order to complete the proof: using the expressions from lines (2) and

42 Ito (3), XIV Z Z E P X s dw s Y s dw s Z = E CI Z P (a,b ]dw s eci (a,b ]dw s h i = (b a ) E P C ec Z = E P X s Y s ds. The proof of Lemma 2 is now complete.

43 Ito I Ito De nition We call X a simple stochastic if X is a nite sum of basic es : X t (ω) = n C i (ω) I (ai,b i ] (t). i=1 Since such a is a sum of F predictable es, then it is itself predictable with respect to the ltration F.

44 Ito II Ito De nition The stochastic of X with respect to the Brownian motion is de ned as the sum of the stochastic s of the basic es which constitute X : Z t X s dw s = n Z t C i I (ai,b i ] (s) dw s. i=1

45 Ito III Ito Paths of a simple stochastic and its stochastic with respect to the Brownian motion ,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 1 4 t ,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8, t The simple is of the form C 1 I ( 1 1, 6 1 ] + C 2I ( 1 2, 3 4 ]

46 Ito IV Ito Integrale_stochastique.xls

47 Ito V Ito First, we must ensure that such a de nition contains no inconsistencies, i.e. if the simple stochastic X admits at least two representations in terms of basic stochastic es, say n i=1 C i I (ai,b i ] and m j=1 e C j I (eaj,eb j], then the is de ned in a unique manner: n Z t m Z t C i I (ai,b i ] (s) dw s = ec j I i=1 j=1 (eaj,eb j] (s) dw s. Exercise. Prove that the de nition of the stochastic for simple es does not depend on the representation chosen.

48 Ito VI Ito Theorem Lemma n 3. If X is a simple stochastic, then R o t X sdw s : t is a (Ω, F, F, P) martingale. Proof of Lemma 3. The stochastic Z t X s dw s = n Z t C i I (ai,b i ] (s) dw s i=1 of the simple X = n i=1 C i I (ai,b i ] is the sum of the stochastic s of the basic es it is made up of. Since a nite sum of martingales is also a martingale, the results comes from the fact that stochastic s of basic es are martingales (Lemma 1).

49 Ito VII Ito The next result is rather technical and the proof can be found in the Appendix. It will useful to us later on. Theorem Lemma 4. If X is a simple, then for all t, Z t " Z t # 2 E P Xs 2 ds = E P X s dw s.

50 Ito VIII Ito That lemma is, besides, very useful to calculate the variance of a stochastic. Indeed, Z t Var P X s dw s " Z t # 2 = E P X s dw s = E P Z t Z t Xs 2 ds = E P X 2 s ds. 1 Z t EP X s dw s C A {z } = 2 It is possible to extend this calculation to other es X and toestablish in a similar manner a method to calculate the covariance between two stochastic s (see the Appendix).

51 Ito es I Ito We would like to extend the class of es for which the stochastic with respect to the Brownian motion can be de ned. We will choose the class of F predictable es for which there exists a sequence of simple es approaching them. Theorem F adapted es, the paths of which are left-continuous are F predictable es. In particular, F adapted es with continuous paths are F predictible. Let X be ann F predictable o for which there exists a sequence X (n) : n 2 N of simple es converging to X when n increases to in nity.

52 Ito es II Ito You can t speak of convergence without speaking of distance. Indeed, how does one measure whether a sequence of stochastic es approaches some other? What is the distance between two stochastic es? To answer such a question, we must de ne the space of stochastic es on which we work as well as the norm we put on that space. Recall that kk A : A! [, ) is a norm on the space A if (i) kx k A =, X = ; (ii) 8X 2 A and 8a 2 R, kax k A = jaj kx k A ; (iii) 8X, Y 2 A, kx + Y k A kx k A + ky k A (triangle inequality).

53 Ito Let A = X es III Ito X is af predictable such that E P R X 2 t dt <. Exercise, optional and rather di cult! The function kk A : A! [, ) de ned as kx k A = s E P Z Xt 2 dt is a norm on the space A.

54 Ito es IV Ito n o It is said that the sequence X (n) : n 2 N A converges to X 2 A when n increases to in nity if and only if lim X (n) n! s Z X = lim E P A n! =. X (n) t X t 2 dt

55 Ito es V Ito It is tempting to de ne the stochastic of X with respect to the Brownian motion as the limit of the stochastic s of the simple es, i.e. Z t Z t X s dw s = lim X s (n) dw s. n!

56 Ito es VI Ito The latter equation raises two issues, one of which being whether such a limit exists. For example, let s assume we work on the space of strictly positive numbers A fx 2 R jx > g and we study the sequence 1 n : n 2 N. That sequence does not converge 1 in the space A since lim n! n = /2 A. Of course, that sequence converges in space R. R t The question is: does lim n! X s (n) dw s exist in the space in which we work? The second issue is that this equation implies that, the greater n, the closer R t X s (n) dw s is to R t X s dw s. But, what is the distance between two stochastic s?

57 Ito es VII Ito Recall that, in Lemma 3, we have established that, for all n, the R X s (n) dw s of a simple is a martingale. Moreover, it is possible to establish that E " Z X (n) s dw s 2 # <.

58 Ito es VIII Ito As a consequence, the sequence used to approach R X s dw s is contained in the space ( ) M is a martingale M = M q such that sup t E P [Mt 2. ] < Exercise, optional and laborious! The function kk M : M! [, ) de ned as is a norm on M. r kmk M = sup t E P [M 2 t ]

59 Ito Thus, we say that the sequence es IX Ito n o M (n) : n 2 N of martingales belonging to the normed space (M, kk M ) converges to M if and only if M 2 M and lim M (n) n! s M = lim sup E P M (n) t M n! t =. M t 2

60 Ito es X Ito The idea behind the construction of R t X s dw s is that, on the one hand, we have the space (A, kk A ) of the es for which we construct the stochastic and, on the other hand, we have the space (M, kk M ) containing the stochastic s of the es in the rst space. But, we have chosen the norms in such a way that, if the X is a simple, then kx k A = R X s dw s M (Ref.: Lemma 5 in the Appendix).

61 Ito es XI Ito This n implies that, o if the sequence of simple es X (n) : n 2 N is a Cauchy sequence in the rst space, i.e. X (n) X (m) m,n! A!, n R o t then the sequence X s (n) dw s : n 2 N of stochastic s is a Cauchy sequence in the second space: Z t Z X s (n) dw s X s (m) M m,n! dw s!. The sequence n o M (n) : n 2 N is a Cauchy sequence on the normed space (M, kk M ) if lim M (n) M (m) M =. n,m!

62 Ito es XII Ito n o If M (n) : n 2 N is a Cauchy sequence, we cannot, in general, state that such a sequence converges, since we are not certain that the limit-point belongs to the set M.

63 Ito es XIII Ito The only thing left to verify is that n the limit-point of the R o t sequence of stochastic s dw s : n 2 N is X s (n) indeed an element of M (ref.: Lemma 6 in the Appendix). We will then be able to de ne the stochastic of the predictable X = lim n! X (n) as R t lim n! X s (n) dw s.

64 Ito Predictible We have de ned the stochastic with respect to the (Ω, F, F, P) Brownian motion for all X F predictable es satisfying the condition Z E P Xt 2 dt <. For each of these es, we n have established that the R o t family of stochastic s X sdw s : t is a (Ω, F, F, P) martingale.

65 Ito I Predictible It is possible to extend the class of es for which the stochastic can be de ned. It involves local martingales as well as semi-martingales. We refer to the book by Richard Durrett those who would like to know more. Let s however mention that it is possible, for such es, n that the family of stochastic s R o t X sdw s : t is no longer a martingale.

66 Ito II Predictible Here is a result allowing us to verify whether the stochastic with which we work is a martingale : Theorem Lemma. h If X is a F predictible such that R i E P t X s 2 ds < then R s X sdw s : s t is a (Ω, F, F, P) martingale (ref. Revuz and Yor, Corollary 1.25, page 124).

67 Ito III Predictible It is possible to de ne the stochastic with respect to other stochastic es than the Brownian motion by using the same construction as the one we have just provided.

68 Ito I DURRETT, Richard (1996). Calculus, A Practical, CRC Press, New York. KARATZAS, Ioannis and SHREVE, Steven E. (1988). Brownian Motion and Calculus, Springer-Verlag, New York. KARLIN, Samuel and TAYLOR, Howard M. (1975). A First Course in Processes, second edition, Academic Press, New York. LAMBERTON, Damien and LAPEYRE, Bernard (1991). au calcul stochastique appliqué à la nance, Éllipses, Paris. REVUZ, Daniel and YOR, Marc (1991). Continuous Martingale and Brownian Motion, Springer-Verlag, New York.

69 Lemma 4 I Ito Lemma 4 Lemma 5 Lemma 6 Comments Here is a second result similar to Lemma 2, but for simple es. Theorem Lemma 4. If X is a simple, then for all t, Z t " Z t # 2 E P Xs 2 ds = E P X s dw s.

70 Ito Lemma 4 Lemma 5 Lemma 6 Comments Lemma 4 II Proof of Lemma 4. Let X = n i=1 C i I (ai,b i ] be a simple. " Z t # 2 E P X s dw s = E P 2 4 n Z t i=1! 3 2 C i I (ai,b i ] (s) dw s 5 n n Z t Z t = E P C i I (ai,b i ] (s) dw s C j I (aj,b j ] (s) dw s i=1 j=1 n n Z t = E P C i I (ai,b i ] (s) C j I (aj,b j ] (s) ds by Lemma 2. i=1 j=1 " Z # t = E P n n C i I (ai,b i ] (s) C j I (aj,b j ] (s) ds i=1 j=1 2 3 Z t = E P n 2 Z t 4 C i I (ai,b i ] (s)! ds5 = E P Xs 2 ds. i=1

71 Lemma 5 I Ito Lemma 4 Lemma 5 Lemma 6 Comments Theorem Lemma 5. For any simple Y, ky k A = R Y s dw s M. Proof of Lemma 5. Note that 8ω 2 Ω, the function t! R h t Y R i s 2 (ω) ds as well as the function t!e P t Y s 2 ds

72 Ito Lemma 4 Lemma 5 Lemma 6 Comments are non-decreasing. As a consequence, Z ky k 2 A = EP Ys 2 ds = E P Z t = lim E P Y 2 t! s ds lim t! Lemma 5 II Z t Ys 2 ds by monotone convergence theorem. Z t = sup E P Ys 2 ds t " Z t # 2 = sup E P Y s dw s by Lemma 4. = t Z Y s dw s 2 M by the very de nition of kk M.

73 Ito Lemma 4 Lemma 5 Lemma 6 Comments Lemma 5 III From n the latter result, it follows that the sequence R o (n) X s dw s : n 2 N of stochastic s of simple es with respect to the Brownian motion is a Cauchy sequence since Z Z lim n,m! X s (n) dw s X s (m) M dw s = lim X (m) A = X (n) n,m! where the rst equality is a direct consequence from Lemma 5, X (n) and X (m) being simple stochastic es, and the second n equalityo comes from the fact that the sequence X (n) : n 2 N is a Cauchy sequence since it converges to X.

74 Ito Lemma 4 Lemma 5 Lemma 6 Comments Theorem Lemma 6 I Lemma 6. The normed space (M, kk M ) is complete a (Durrett, 1996, Theorem 4.6, page 57). a A normed space is said to be complete if any Cauchy sequence converges, i.e. the limit-point of any Cauchy sequence belongs to the space. n R o (n) Since X s dw s : n 2 N is a Cauchy sequence on the complete space (M, kk M ) then such a sequence converges, thus R establishing the existence of what we have called Xs dw s, and its limit-point belongs to (M, kk M ), which implies R that the stochastic of X with respect to W, Xs dw s, is a martingale, even for some adapted es which are not simple es.

75 Comments I Ito Lemma 4 Lemma 5 Lemma 6 Comments It is possible to prove that the de nition of the stochastic, for the predictable stochastic es X 2 A which own a sequence of simple es approaching them, n does notodepend n on the sequence chosen, i.e. if X (n) : n 2 N and X e (n) : n 2 No are such two sequences of simple es, that X lim (n) n! X = and lim n! ex (n) X =, A A then Z lim n! Z X s (n) dw s = lim n! ex (n) dw s.

76 Comments II Ito Lemma 4 Lemma 5 Lemma 6 Comments Last comment: for any predictable stochastic X n 2 (A, kk A ), o there exists such a sequence X (n) : n 2 N of simple es that lim X (n) n! X =. A (Durrett, 1996, Lemma 4.5, page 57)

Stochastic Processes Calcul stochastique. Geneviève Gauthier. HEC Montréal. Stochastic processes. Stochastic processes.

Stochastic Processes Calcul stochastique. Geneviève Gauthier. HEC Montréal. Stochastic processes. Stochastic processes. Processes 80-646-08 Calcul stochastique Geneviève Gauthier HEC Montréal Let (Ω, F) be a measurable space. A stochastic process X = fx t : t 2 T g is a family of random variables, all built on the same

More information

Snell envelope and the pricing of American-style contingent claims

Snell envelope and the pricing of American-style contingent claims Snell envelope and the pricing of -style contingent claims 80-646-08 Stochastic calculus I Geneviève Gauthier HEC Montréal Notation The The riskless security Market model The following text draws heavily

More information

Discrete-Time Market Models

Discrete-Time Market Models Discrete-Time Market Models 80-646-08 Stochastic Calculus I Geneviève Gauthier HEC Montréal I We will study in depth Section 2: The Finite Theory in the article Martingales, Stochastic Integrals and Continuous

More information

Stochastic Processes

Stochastic Processes Introduction and Techniques Lecture 4 in Financial Mathematics UiO-STK4510 Autumn 2015 Teacher: S. Ortiz-Latorre Stochastic Processes 1 Stochastic Processes De nition 1 Let (E; E) be a measurable space

More information

1 Brownian Local Time

1 Brownian Local Time 1 Brownian Local Time We first begin by defining the space and variables for Brownian local time. Let W t be a standard 1-D Wiener process. We know that for the set, {t : W t = } P (µ{t : W t = } = ) =

More information

MA 8101 Stokastiske metoder i systemteori

MA 8101 Stokastiske metoder i systemteori MA 811 Stokastiske metoder i systemteori AUTUMN TRM 3 Suggested solution with some extra comments The exam had a list of useful formulae attached. This list has been added here as well. 1 Problem In this

More information

The multidimensional Ito Integral and the multidimensional Ito Formula. Eric Mu ller June 1, 2015 Seminar on Stochastic Geometry and its applications

The multidimensional Ito Integral and the multidimensional Ito Formula. Eric Mu ller June 1, 2015 Seminar on Stochastic Geometry and its applications The multidimensional Ito Integral and the multidimensional Ito Formula Eric Mu ller June 1, 215 Seminar on Stochastic Geometry and its applications page 2 Seminar on Stochastic Geometry and its applications

More information

Stochastic Processes

Stochastic Processes Stochastic Processes A very simple introduction Péter Medvegyev 2009, January Medvegyev (CEU) Stochastic Processes 2009, January 1 / 54 Summary from measure theory De nition (X, A) is a measurable space

More information

1. Stochastic Processes and filtrations

1. Stochastic Processes and filtrations 1. Stochastic Processes and 1. Stoch. pr., A stochastic process (X t ) t T is a collection of random variables on (Ω, F) with values in a measurable space (S, S), i.e., for all t, In our case X t : Ω S

More information

4.3 - Linear Combinations and Independence of Vectors

4.3 - Linear Combinations and Independence of Vectors - Linear Combinations and Independence of Vectors De nitions, Theorems, and Examples De nition 1 A vector v in a vector space V is called a linear combination of the vectors u 1, u,,u k in V if v can be

More information

Introduction to Random Diffusions

Introduction to Random Diffusions Introduction to Random Diffusions The main reason to study random diffusions is that this class of processes combines two key features of modern probability theory. On the one hand they are semi-martingales

More information

The main purpose of this chapter is to prove the rst and second fundamental theorem of asset pricing in a so called nite market model.

The main purpose of this chapter is to prove the rst and second fundamental theorem of asset pricing in a so called nite market model. 1 2. Option pricing in a nite market model (February 14, 2012) 1 Introduction The main purpose of this chapter is to prove the rst and second fundamental theorem of asset pricing in a so called nite market

More information

LECTURE 12 UNIT ROOT, WEAK CONVERGENCE, FUNCTIONAL CLT

LECTURE 12 UNIT ROOT, WEAK CONVERGENCE, FUNCTIONAL CLT MARCH 29, 26 LECTURE 2 UNIT ROOT, WEAK CONVERGENCE, FUNCTIONAL CLT (Davidson (2), Chapter 4; Phillips Lectures on Unit Roots, Cointegration and Nonstationarity; White (999), Chapter 7) Unit root processes

More information

The Azéma-Yor Embedding in Non-Singular Diffusions

The Azéma-Yor Embedding in Non-Singular Diffusions Stochastic Process. Appl. Vol. 96, No. 2, 2001, 305-312 Research Report No. 406, 1999, Dept. Theoret. Statist. Aarhus The Azéma-Yor Embedding in Non-Singular Diffusions J. L. Pedersen and G. Peskir Let

More information

Brownian motion. Samy Tindel. Purdue University. Probability Theory 2 - MA 539

Brownian motion. Samy Tindel. Purdue University. Probability Theory 2 - MA 539 Brownian motion Samy Tindel Purdue University Probability Theory 2 - MA 539 Mostly taken from Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus by I. Karatzas and S. Shreve Samy T. Brownian motion Probability Theory

More information

SOME THEORY AND PRACTICE OF STATISTICS by Howard G. Tucker CHAPTER 2. UNIVARIATE DISTRIBUTIONS

SOME THEORY AND PRACTICE OF STATISTICS by Howard G. Tucker CHAPTER 2. UNIVARIATE DISTRIBUTIONS SOME THEORY AND PRACTICE OF STATISTICS by Howard G. Tucker CHAPTER. UNIVARIATE DISTRIBUTIONS. Random Variables and Distribution Functions. This chapter deals with the notion of random variable, the distribution

More information

STAT 7032 Probability Spring Wlodek Bryc

STAT 7032 Probability Spring Wlodek Bryc STAT 7032 Probability Spring 2018 Wlodek Bryc Created: Friday, Jan 2, 2014 Revised for Spring 2018 Printed: January 9, 2018 File: Grad-Prob-2018.TEX Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Cincinnati,

More information

On the martingales obtained by an extension due to Saisho, Tanemura and Yor of Pitman s theorem

On the martingales obtained by an extension due to Saisho, Tanemura and Yor of Pitman s theorem On the martingales obtained by an extension due to Saisho, Tanemura and Yor of Pitman s theorem Koichiro TAKAOKA Dept of Applied Physics, Tokyo Institute of Technology Abstract M Yor constructed a family

More information

March 16, Abstract. We study the problem of portfolio optimization under the \drawdown constraint" that the

March 16, Abstract. We study the problem of portfolio optimization under the \drawdown constraint that the ON PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION UNDER \DRAWDOWN" CONSTRAINTS JAKSA CVITANIC IOANNIS KARATZAS y March 6, 994 Abstract We study the problem of portfolio optimization under the \drawdown constraint" that the wealth

More information

Nonlinear Programming (NLP)

Nonlinear Programming (NLP) Natalia Lazzati Mathematics for Economics (Part I) Note 6: Nonlinear Programming - Unconstrained Optimization Note 6 is based on de la Fuente (2000, Ch. 7), Madden (1986, Ch. 3 and 5) and Simon and Blume

More information

Lecture 2. We now introduce some fundamental tools in martingale theory, which are useful in controlling the fluctuation of martingales.

Lecture 2. We now introduce some fundamental tools in martingale theory, which are useful in controlling the fluctuation of martingales. Lecture 2 1 Martingales We now introduce some fundamental tools in martingale theory, which are useful in controlling the fluctuation of martingales. 1.1 Doob s inequality We have the following maximal

More information

I forgot to mention last time: in the Ito formula for two standard processes, putting

I forgot to mention last time: in the Ito formula for two standard processes, putting I forgot to mention last time: in the Ito formula for two standard processes, putting dx t = a t dt + b t db t dy t = α t dt + β t db t, and taking f(x, y = xy, one has f x = y, f y = x, and f xx = f yy

More information

Theoretical Tutorial Session 2

Theoretical Tutorial Session 2 1 / 36 Theoretical Tutorial Session 2 Xiaoming Song Department of Mathematics Drexel University July 27, 216 Outline 2 / 36 Itô s formula Martingale representation theorem Stochastic differential equations

More information

Jointly measurable and progressively measurable stochastic processes

Jointly measurable and progressively measurable stochastic processes Jointly measurable and progressively measurable stochastic processes Jordan Bell jordan.bell@gmail.com Department of Mathematics, University of Toronto June 18, 2015 1 Jointly measurable stochastic processes

More information

Lecture 12. F o s, (1.1) F t := s>t

Lecture 12. F o s, (1.1) F t := s>t Lecture 12 1 Brownian motion: the Markov property Let C := C(0, ), R) be the space of continuous functions mapping from 0, ) to R, in which a Brownian motion (B t ) t 0 almost surely takes its value. Let

More information

(B(t i+1 ) B(t i )) 2

(B(t i+1 ) B(t i )) 2 ltcc5.tex Week 5 29 October 213 Ch. V. ITÔ (STOCHASTIC) CALCULUS. WEAK CONVERGENCE. 1. Quadratic Variation. A partition π n of [, t] is a finite set of points t ni such that = t n < t n1

More information

Stochastic Processes II/ Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie III. Lecture Notes

Stochastic Processes II/ Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie III. Lecture Notes BMS Basic Course Stochastic Processes II/ Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie III Michael Scheutzow Lecture Notes Technische Universität Berlin Sommersemester 218 preliminary version October 12th 218 Contents

More information

Economics Bulletin, 2012, Vol. 32 No. 1 pp Introduction. 2. The preliminaries

Economics Bulletin, 2012, Vol. 32 No. 1 pp Introduction. 2. The preliminaries 1. Introduction In this paper we reconsider the problem of axiomatizing scoring rules. Early results on this problem are due to Smith (1973) and Young (1975). They characterized social welfare and social

More information

n E(X t T n = lim X s Tn = X s

n E(X t T n = lim X s Tn = X s Stochastic Calculus Example sheet - Lent 15 Michael Tehranchi Problem 1. Let X be a local martingale. Prove that X is a uniformly integrable martingale if and only X is of class D. Solution 1. If If direction:

More information

Alvaro Rodrigues-Neto Research School of Economics, Australian National University. ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics # 587

Alvaro Rodrigues-Neto Research School of Economics, Australian National University. ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics # 587 Cycles of length two in monotonic models José Alvaro Rodrigues-Neto Research School of Economics, Australian National University ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics # 587 October 20122 JEL:

More information

4 Sums of Independent Random Variables

4 Sums of Independent Random Variables 4 Sums of Independent Random Variables Standing Assumptions: Assume throughout this section that (,F,P) is a fixed probability space and that X 1, X 2, X 3,... are independent real-valued random variables

More information

Appendix A. Sequences and series. A.1 Sequences. Definition A.1 A sequence is a function N R.

Appendix A. Sequences and series. A.1 Sequences. Definition A.1 A sequence is a function N R. Appendix A Sequences and series This course has for prerequisite a course (or two) of calculus. The purpose of this appendix is to review basic definitions and facts concerning sequences and series, which

More information

An essay on the general theory of stochastic processes

An essay on the general theory of stochastic processes Probability Surveys Vol. 3 (26) 345 412 ISSN: 1549-5787 DOI: 1.1214/1549578614 An essay on the general theory of stochastic processes Ashkan Nikeghbali ETHZ Departement Mathematik, Rämistrasse 11, HG G16

More information

Ergodic Theory (Lecture Notes) Joan Andreu Lázaro Camí

Ergodic Theory (Lecture Notes) Joan Andreu Lázaro Camí Ergodic Theory (Lecture Notes) Joan Andreu Lázaro Camí Department of Mathematics Imperial College London January 2010 Contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Measure Theory 5 2.1 Motivation: Positive measures and

More information

Verona Course April Lecture 1. Review of probability

Verona Course April Lecture 1. Review of probability Verona Course April 215. Lecture 1. Review of probability Viorel Barbu Al.I. Cuza University of Iaşi and the Romanian Academy A probability space is a triple (Ω, F, P) where Ω is an abstract set, F is

More information

Math 1270 Honors Fall, 2008 Background Material on Uniform Convergence

Math 1270 Honors Fall, 2008 Background Material on Uniform Convergence Math 27 Honors Fall, 28 Background Material on Uniform Convergence Uniform convergence is discussed in Bartle and Sherbert s book Introduction to Real Analysis, which was the tet last year for 42 and 45.

More information

MA8109 Stochastic Processes in Systems Theory Autumn 2013

MA8109 Stochastic Processes in Systems Theory Autumn 2013 Norwegian University of Science and Technology Department of Mathematical Sciences MA819 Stochastic Processes in Systems Theory Autumn 213 1 MA819 Exam 23, problem 3b This is a linear equation of the form

More information

A Concise Course on Stochastic Partial Differential Equations

A Concise Course on Stochastic Partial Differential Equations A Concise Course on Stochastic Partial Differential Equations Michael Röckner Reference: C. Prevot, M. Röckner: Springer LN in Math. 1905, Berlin (2007) And see the references therein for the original

More information

1 Continuation of solutions

1 Continuation of solutions Math 175 Honors ODE I Spring 13 Notes 4 1 Continuation of solutions Theorem 1 in the previous notes states that a solution to y = f (t; y) (1) y () = () exists on a closed interval [ h; h] ; under certain

More information

1 Which sets have volume 0?

1 Which sets have volume 0? Math 540 Spring 0 Notes #0 More on integration Which sets have volume 0? The theorem at the end of the last section makes this an important question. (Measure theory would supersede it, however.) Theorem

More information

Mean-Variance Utility

Mean-Variance Utility Mean-Variance Utility Yutaka Nakamura University of Tsukuba Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering Division of Social Systems and Management -- Tennnoudai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8573, Japan

More information

Sequences and Series

Sequences and Series CHAPTER Sequences and Series.. Convergence of Sequences.. Sequences Definition. Suppose that fa n g n= is a sequence. We say that lim a n = L; if for every ">0 there is an N>0 so that whenever n>n;ja n

More information

MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 6.265/15.070J Fall 2013 Lecture 7 9/25/2013

MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 6.265/15.070J Fall 2013 Lecture 7 9/25/2013 MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 6.65/15.070J Fall 013 Lecture 7 9/5/013 The Reflection Principle. The Distribution of the Maximum. Brownian motion with drift Content. 1. Quick intro to stopping times.

More information

Fundamental Inequalities, Convergence and the Optional Stopping Theorem for Continuous-Time Martingales

Fundamental Inequalities, Convergence and the Optional Stopping Theorem for Continuous-Time Martingales Fundamental Inequalities, Convergence and the Optional Stopping Theorem for Continuous-Time Martingales Prakash Balachandran Department of Mathematics Duke University April 2, 2008 1 Review of Discrete-Time

More information

EULER MARUYAMA APPROXIMATION FOR SDES WITH JUMPS AND NON-LIPSCHITZ COEFFICIENTS

EULER MARUYAMA APPROXIMATION FOR SDES WITH JUMPS AND NON-LIPSCHITZ COEFFICIENTS Qiao, H. Osaka J. Math. 51 (14), 47 66 EULER MARUYAMA APPROXIMATION FOR SDES WITH JUMPS AND NON-LIPSCHITZ COEFFICIENTS HUIJIE QIAO (Received May 6, 11, revised May 1, 1) Abstract In this paper we show

More information

Stochastic Calculus (Lecture #3)

Stochastic Calculus (Lecture #3) Stochastic Calculus (Lecture #3) Siegfried Hörmann Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB) Spring 2014 Outline of the course 1. Stochastic processes in continuous time. 2. Brownian motion. 3. Itô integral:

More information

Solution for Problem 7.1. We argue by contradiction. If the limit were not infinite, then since τ M (ω) is nondecreasing we would have

Solution for Problem 7.1. We argue by contradiction. If the limit were not infinite, then since τ M (ω) is nondecreasing we would have 362 Problem Hints and Solutions sup g n (ω, t) g(ω, t) sup g(ω, s) g(ω, t) µ n (ω). t T s,t: s t 1/n By the uniform continuity of t g(ω, t) on [, T], one has for each ω that µ n (ω) as n. Two applications

More information

Convergence at first and second order of some approximations of stochastic integrals

Convergence at first and second order of some approximations of stochastic integrals Convergence at first and second order of some approximations of stochastic integrals Bérard Bergery Blandine, Vallois Pierre IECN, Nancy-Université, CNRS, INRIA, Boulevard des Aiguillettes B.P. 239 F-5456

More information

arxiv: v2 [math.pr] 22 Aug 2009

arxiv: v2 [math.pr] 22 Aug 2009 On the structure of Gaussian random variables arxiv:97.25v2 [math.pr] 22 Aug 29 Ciprian A. Tudor SAMOS/MATISSE, Centre d Economie de La Sorbonne, Université de Panthéon-Sorbonne Paris, 9, rue de Tolbiac,

More information

Random Process Lecture 1. Fundamentals of Probability

Random Process Lecture 1. Fundamentals of Probability Random Process Lecture 1. Fundamentals of Probability Husheng Li Min Kao Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science University of Tennessee, Knoxville Spring, 2016 1/43 Outline 2/43 1 Syllabus

More information

Bernardo D Auria Stochastic Processes /12. Notes. March 29 th, 2012

Bernardo D Auria Stochastic Processes /12. Notes. March 29 th, 2012 1 Stochastic Calculus Notes March 9 th, 1 In 19, Bachelier proposed for the Paris stock exchange a model for the fluctuations affecting the price X(t) of an asset that was given by the Brownian motion.

More information

Some Terminology and Concepts that We will Use, But Not Emphasize (Section 6.2)

Some Terminology and Concepts that We will Use, But Not Emphasize (Section 6.2) Some Terminology and Concepts that We will Use, But Not Emphasize (Section 6.2) Statistical analysis is based on probability theory. The fundamental object in probability theory is a probability space,

More information

STAT 331. Martingale Central Limit Theorem and Related Results

STAT 331. Martingale Central Limit Theorem and Related Results STAT 331 Martingale Central Limit Theorem and Related Results In this unit we discuss a version of the martingale central limit theorem, which states that under certain conditions, a sum of orthogonal

More information

On the submartingale / supermartingale property of diffusions in natural scale

On the submartingale / supermartingale property of diffusions in natural scale On the submartingale / supermartingale property of diffusions in natural scale Alexander Gushchin Mikhail Urusov Mihail Zervos November 13, 214 Abstract Kotani 5 has characterised the martingale property

More information

Time is discrete and indexed by t =0; 1;:::;T,whereT<1. An individual is interested in maximizing an objective function given by. tu(x t ;a t ); (0.

Time is discrete and indexed by t =0; 1;:::;T,whereT<1. An individual is interested in maximizing an objective function given by. tu(x t ;a t ); (0. Chapter 0 Discrete Time Dynamic Programming 0.1 The Finite Horizon Case Time is discrete and indexed by t =0; 1;:::;T,whereT

More information

Stochastic Calculus Made Easy

Stochastic Calculus Made Easy Stochastic Calculus Made Easy Most of us know how standard Calculus works. We know how to differentiate, how to integrate etc. But stochastic calculus is a totally different beast to tackle; we are trying

More information

X (z) = n= 1. Ã! X (z) x [n] X (z) = Z fx [n]g x [n] = Z 1 fx (z)g. r n x [n] ª e jnω

X (z) = n= 1. Ã! X (z) x [n] X (z) = Z fx [n]g x [n] = Z 1 fx (z)g. r n x [n] ª e jnω 3 The z-transform ² Two advantages with the z-transform:. The z-transform is a generalization of the Fourier transform for discrete-time signals; which encompasses a broader class of sequences. The z-transform

More information

Functional Analysis: Assignment Set # 3 Spring 2009 Professor: Fengbo Hang February 25, 2009

Functional Analysis: Assignment Set # 3 Spring 2009 Professor: Fengbo Hang February 25, 2009 duardo Corona Functional Analysis: Assignment Set # 3 Spring 9 Professor: Fengbo Hang February 5, 9 C6. Show that a norm that satis es the parallelogram identity: comes from a scalar product. kx + yk +

More information

Mathematical Institute, University of Utrecht. The problem of estimating the mean of an observed Gaussian innite-dimensional vector

Mathematical Institute, University of Utrecht. The problem of estimating the mean of an observed Gaussian innite-dimensional vector On Minimax Filtering over Ellipsoids Eduard N. Belitser and Boris Y. Levit Mathematical Institute, University of Utrecht Budapestlaan 6, 3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands The problem of estimating the mean

More information

Measuring robustness

Measuring robustness Measuring robustness 1 Introduction While in the classical approach to statistics one aims at estimates which have desirable properties at an exactly speci ed model, the aim of robust methods is loosely

More information

van Rooij, Schikhof: A Second Course on Real Functions

van Rooij, Schikhof: A Second Course on Real Functions vanrooijschikhof.tex April 25, 2018 van Rooij, Schikhof: A Second Course on Real Functions Notes from [vrs]. Introduction A monotone function is Riemann integrable. A continuous function is Riemann integrable.

More information

Pathwise Construction of Stochastic Integrals

Pathwise Construction of Stochastic Integrals Pathwise Construction of Stochastic Integrals Marcel Nutz First version: August 14, 211. This version: June 12, 212. Abstract We propose a method to construct the stochastic integral simultaneously under

More information

FE610 Stochastic Calculus for Financial Engineers. Stevens Institute of Technology

FE610 Stochastic Calculus for Financial Engineers. Stevens Institute of Technology FE610 Stochastic Calculus for Financial Engineers Lecture 3. Calculaus in Deterministic and Stochastic Environments Steve Yang Stevens Institute of Technology 01/31/2012 Outline 1 Modeling Random Behavior

More information

A Barrier Version of the Russian Option

A Barrier Version of the Russian Option A Barrier Version of the Russian Option L. A. Shepp, A. N. Shiryaev, A. Sulem Rutgers University; shepp@stat.rutgers.edu Steklov Mathematical Institute; shiryaev@mi.ras.ru INRIA- Rocquencourt; agnes.sulem@inria.fr

More information

Bernardo D Auria Stochastic Processes /10. Notes. Abril 13 th, 2010

Bernardo D Auria Stochastic Processes /10. Notes. Abril 13 th, 2010 1 Stochastic Calculus Notes Abril 13 th, 1 As we have seen in previous lessons, the stochastic integral with respect to the Brownian motion shows a behavior different from the classical Riemann-Stieltjes

More information

A Change of Variable Formula with Local Time-Space for Bounded Variation Lévy Processes with Application to Solving the American Put Option Problem 1

A Change of Variable Formula with Local Time-Space for Bounded Variation Lévy Processes with Application to Solving the American Put Option Problem 1 Chapter 3 A Change of Variable Formula with Local Time-Space for Bounded Variation Lévy Processes with Application to Solving the American Put Option Problem 1 Abstract We establish a change of variable

More information

Advanced Microeconomics

Advanced Microeconomics Advanced Microeconomics Ordinal preference theory Harald Wiese University of Leipzig Harald Wiese (University of Leipzig) Advanced Microeconomics 1 / 68 Part A. Basic decision and preference theory 1 Decisions

More information

ECON 7335 INFORMATION, LEARNING AND EXPECTATIONS IN MACRO LECTURE 1: BASICS. 1. Bayes Rule. p(b j A)p(A) p(b)

ECON 7335 INFORMATION, LEARNING AND EXPECTATIONS IN MACRO LECTURE 1: BASICS. 1. Bayes Rule. p(b j A)p(A) p(b) ECON 7335 INFORMATION, LEARNING AND EXPECTATIONS IN MACRO LECTURE : BASICS KRISTOFFER P. NIMARK. Bayes Rule De nition. Bayes Rule. The probability of event A occurring conditional on the event B having

More information

The Cameron-Martin-Girsanov (CMG) Theorem

The Cameron-Martin-Girsanov (CMG) Theorem The Cameron-Martin-Girsanov (CMG) Theorem There are many versions of the CMG Theorem. In some sense, there are many CMG Theorems. The first version appeared in ] in 944. Here we present a standard version,

More information

Appendix for "O shoring in a Ricardian World"

Appendix for O shoring in a Ricardian World Appendix for "O shoring in a Ricardian World" This Appendix presents the proofs of Propositions - 6 and the derivations of the results in Section IV. Proof of Proposition We want to show that Tm L m T

More information

Notes on Complex Analysis

Notes on Complex Analysis Michael Papadimitrakis Notes on Complex Analysis Department of Mathematics University of Crete Contents The complex plane.. The complex plane...................................2 Argument and polar representation.........................

More information

OPTIMAL SOLUTIONS TO STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL INCLUSIONS

OPTIMAL SOLUTIONS TO STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL INCLUSIONS APPLICATIONES MATHEMATICAE 29,4 (22), pp. 387 398 Mariusz Michta (Zielona Góra) OPTIMAL SOLUTIONS TO STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL INCLUSIONS Abstract. A martingale problem approach is used first to analyze

More information

STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS WITH EXTRA PROPERTIES H. JEROME KEISLER. Department of Mathematics. University of Wisconsin.

STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS WITH EXTRA PROPERTIES H. JEROME KEISLER. Department of Mathematics. University of Wisconsin. STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS WITH EXTRA PROPERTIES H. JEROME KEISLER Department of Mathematics University of Wisconsin Madison WI 5376 keisler@math.wisc.edu 1. Introduction The Loeb measure construction

More information

OPTIMAL STOPPING OF A BROWNIAN BRIDGE

OPTIMAL STOPPING OF A BROWNIAN BRIDGE OPTIMAL STOPPING OF A BROWNIAN BRIDGE ERIK EKSTRÖM AND HENRIK WANNTORP Abstract. We study several optimal stopping problems in which the gains process is a Brownian bridge or a functional of a Brownian

More information

Lecture 1: Brief Review on Stochastic Processes

Lecture 1: Brief Review on Stochastic Processes Lecture 1: Brief Review on Stochastic Processes A stochastic process is a collection of random variables {X t (s) : t T, s S}, where T is some index set and S is the common sample space of the random variables.

More information

Stochastic integration. P.J.C. Spreij

Stochastic integration. P.J.C. Spreij Stochastic integration P.J.C. Spreij this version: April 22, 29 Contents 1 Stochastic processes 1 1.1 General theory............................... 1 1.2 Stopping times...............................

More information

Max-Min Problems in R n Matrix

Max-Min Problems in R n Matrix Max-Min Problems in R n Matrix 1 and the essian Prerequisite: Section 6., Orthogonal Diagonalization n this section, we study the problem of nding local maxima and minima for realvalued functions on R

More information

MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 6.265/15.070J Fall 2013 Lecture 9 10/2/2013. Conditional expectations, filtration and martingales

MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 6.265/15.070J Fall 2013 Lecture 9 10/2/2013. Conditional expectations, filtration and martingales MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 6.265/15.070J Fall 2013 Lecture 9 10/2/2013 Conditional expectations, filtration and martingales Content. 1. Conditional expectations 2. Martingales, sub-martingales

More information

Itô s formula. Samy Tindel. Purdue University. Probability Theory 2 - MA 539

Itô s formula. Samy Tindel. Purdue University. Probability Theory 2 - MA 539 Itô s formula Samy Tindel Purdue University Probability Theory 2 - MA 539 Mostly taken from Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus by I. Karatzas and S. Shreve Samy T. Itô s formula Probability Theory

More information

Partial Differential Equations with Applications to Finance Seminar 1: Proving and applying Dynkin s formula

Partial Differential Equations with Applications to Finance Seminar 1: Proving and applying Dynkin s formula Partial Differential Equations with Applications to Finance Seminar 1: Proving and applying Dynkin s formula Group 4: Bertan Yilmaz, Richard Oti-Aboagye and Di Liu May, 15 Chapter 1 Proving Dynkin s formula

More information

Question 1. The correct answers are: (a) (2) (b) (1) (c) (2) (d) (3) (e) (2) (f) (1) (g) (2) (h) (1)

Question 1. The correct answers are: (a) (2) (b) (1) (c) (2) (d) (3) (e) (2) (f) (1) (g) (2) (h) (1) Question 1 The correct answers are: a 2 b 1 c 2 d 3 e 2 f 1 g 2 h 1 Question 2 a Any probability measure Q equivalent to P on F 2 can be described by Q[{x 1, x 2 }] := q x1 q x1,x 2, 1 where q x1, q x1,x

More information

Notes on uniform convergence

Notes on uniform convergence Notes on uniform convergence Erik Wahlén erik.wahlen@math.lu.se January 17, 2012 1 Numerical sequences We begin by recalling some properties of numerical sequences. By a numerical sequence we simply mean

More information

Brownian Motion and Conditional Probability

Brownian Motion and Conditional Probability Math 561: Theory of Probability (Spring 2018) Week 10 Brownian Motion and Conditional Probability 10.1 Standard Brownian Motion (SBM) Brownian motion is a stochastic process with both practical and theoretical

More information

It is convenient to introduce some notation for this type of problems. I will write this as. max u (x 1 ; x 2 ) subj. to. p 1 x 1 + p 2 x 2 m ;

It is convenient to introduce some notation for this type of problems. I will write this as. max u (x 1 ; x 2 ) subj. to. p 1 x 1 + p 2 x 2 m ; 4 Calculus Review 4.1 The Utility Maimization Problem As a motivating eample, consider the problem facing a consumer that needs to allocate a given budget over two commodities sold at (linear) prices p

More information

On the quantiles of the Brownian motion and their hitting times.

On the quantiles of the Brownian motion and their hitting times. On the quantiles of the Brownian motion and their hitting times. Angelos Dassios London School of Economics May 23 Abstract The distribution of the α-quantile of a Brownian motion on an interval [, t]

More information

Module 3. Function of a Random Variable and its distribution

Module 3. Function of a Random Variable and its distribution Module 3 Function of a Random Variable and its distribution 1. Function of a Random Variable Let Ω, F, be a probability space and let be random variable defined on Ω, F,. Further let h: R R be a given

More information

Some SDEs with distributional drift Part I : General calculus. Flandoli, Franco; Russo, Francesco; Wolf, Jochen

Some SDEs with distributional drift Part I : General calculus. Flandoli, Franco; Russo, Francesco; Wolf, Jochen Title Author(s) Some SDEs with distributional drift Part I : General calculus Flandoli, Franco; Russo, Francesco; Wolf, Jochen Citation Osaka Journal of Mathematics. 4() P.493-P.54 Issue Date 3-6 Text

More information

ON THE STRUCTURE OF GAUSSIAN RANDOM VARIABLES

ON THE STRUCTURE OF GAUSSIAN RANDOM VARIABLES ON THE STRUCTURE OF GAUSSIAN RANDOM VARIABLES CIPRIAN A. TUDOR We study when a given Gaussian random variable on a given probability space Ω, F,P) is equal almost surely to β 1 where β is a Brownian motion

More information

Lecture 8: Basic convex analysis

Lecture 8: Basic convex analysis Lecture 8: Basic convex analysis 1 Convex sets Both convex sets and functions have general importance in economic theory, not only in optimization. Given two points x; y 2 R n and 2 [0; 1]; the weighted

More information

ECONOMETRICS FIELD EXAM Michigan State University May 9, 2008

ECONOMETRICS FIELD EXAM Michigan State University May 9, 2008 ECONOMETRICS FIELD EXAM Michigan State University May 9, 2008 Instructions: Answer all four (4) questions. Point totals for each question are given in parenthesis; there are 00 points possible. Within

More information

1 The Well Ordering Principle, Induction, and Equivalence Relations

1 The Well Ordering Principle, Induction, and Equivalence Relations 1 The Well Ordering Principle, Induction, and Equivalence Relations The set of natural numbers is the set N = f1; 2; 3; : : :g. (Some authors also include the number 0 in the natural numbers, but number

More information

Stochastic Calculus. Kevin Sinclair. August 2, 2016

Stochastic Calculus. Kevin Sinclair. August 2, 2016 Stochastic Calculus Kevin Sinclair August, 16 1 Background Suppose we have a Brownian motion W. This is a process, and the value of W at a particular time T (which we write W T ) is a normally distributed

More information

Exercises. T 2T. e ita φ(t)dt.

Exercises. T 2T. e ita φ(t)dt. Exercises. Set #. Construct an example of a sequence of probability measures P n on R which converge weakly to a probability measure P but so that the first moments m,n = xdp n do not converge to m = xdp.

More information

ELEMENTS OF PROBABILITY THEORY

ELEMENTS OF PROBABILITY THEORY ELEMENTS OF PROBABILITY THEORY Elements of Probability Theory A collection of subsets of a set Ω is called a σ algebra if it contains Ω and is closed under the operations of taking complements and countable

More information

Stochastic Processes. Winter Term Paolo Di Tella Technische Universität Dresden Institut für Stochastik

Stochastic Processes. Winter Term Paolo Di Tella Technische Universität Dresden Institut für Stochastik Stochastic Processes Winter Term 2016-2017 Paolo Di Tella Technische Universität Dresden Institut für Stochastik Contents 1 Preliminaries 5 1.1 Uniform integrability.............................. 5 1.2

More information

!"#$%&'(&)*$%&+",#$$-$%&+./#-+ (&)*$%&+%"-$+0!#1%&

!#$%&'(&)*$%&+,#$$-$%&+./#-+ (&)*$%&+%-$+0!#1%& !"#$%&'(&)*$%&",#$$-$%&./#- (&)*$%&%"-$0!#1%&23 44444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 &53.67689:5;978?58"@A9;8=B!=89C7DE,6=8FG=CD=CF(76F9C7D!)#!/($"%*$H!I"%"&1/%/.!"JK$&3

More information

212a1214Daniell s integration theory.

212a1214Daniell s integration theory. 212a1214 Daniell s integration theory. October 30, 2014 Daniell s idea was to take the axiomatic properties of the integral as the starting point and develop integration for broader and broader classes

More information

Supplemental Material 1 for On Optimal Inference in the Linear IV Model

Supplemental Material 1 for On Optimal Inference in the Linear IV Model Supplemental Material 1 for On Optimal Inference in the Linear IV Model Donald W. K. Andrews Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics Yale University Vadim Marmer Vancouver School of Economics University

More information

Citation Osaka Journal of Mathematics. 41(4)

Citation Osaka Journal of Mathematics. 41(4) TitleA non quasi-invariance of the Brown Authors Sadasue, Gaku Citation Osaka Journal of Mathematics. 414 Issue 4-1 Date Text Version publisher URL http://hdl.handle.net/1194/1174 DOI Rights Osaka University

More information

MATH1050 Greatest/least element, upper/lower bound

MATH1050 Greatest/least element, upper/lower bound MATH1050 Greatest/ element, upper/lower bound 1 Definition Let S be a subset of R x λ (a) Let λ S λ is said to be a element of S if, for any x S, x λ (b) S is said to have a element if there exists some

More information