Scalable robust hypothesis tests using graphical models

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1 Scalable robust hypothesis tests using graphical models Umamahesh Srinivas ipal Group Meeting October 22, 2010

2 Binary hypothesis testing problem Random vector x = (x 1,...,x n ) R n generated from either of two hypotheses H 0 : x g(x H 0 ) H 1 : x g(x H 1 ) Given: Training sets T 0 and T 1, K samples each Goal: Classify new sample as coming from H 0 or H 1 Assumptions: Conditional densities g(x H 0 ) and g(x H 1 ) known exactly Samples in T 0 and T 1 generated i.i.d. from g(x H 0 ) and g(x H 1 ) respectively Likelihood ratio test (LRT) L(x) := g(x H H 1 1) τ (1) g(x H 0 ) H 0 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 2

3 Binary hypothesis testing problem Random vector x = (x 1,...,x n ) R n generated from either of two hypotheses H 0 : x g(x H 0 ) H 1 : x g(x H 1 ) Given: Training sets T 0 and T 1, K samples each Goal: Classify new sample as coming from H 0 or H 1 Assumptions: Conditional densities g(x H 0 ) and g(x H 1 ) known exactly Samples in T 0 and T 1 generated i.i.d. from g(x H 0 ) and g(x H 1 ) respectively Likelihood ratio test (LRT) L(x) := g(x H H 1 1) τ (1) g(x H 0 ) H 0 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 2

4 Binary hypothesis testing problem Random vector x = (x 1,...,x n ) R n generated from either of two hypotheses H 0 : x g(x H 0 ) H 1 : x g(x H 1 ) Given: Training sets T 0 and T 1, K samples each Goal: Classify new sample as coming from H 0 or H 1 Assumptions: Conditional densities g(x H 0 ) and g(x H 1 ) known exactly Samples in T 0 and T 1 generated i.i.d. from g(x H 0 ) and g(x H 1 ) respectively Likelihood ratio test (LRT) L(x) := g(x H H 1 1) τ (1) g(x H 0 ) H 0 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 2

5 Need for robustness Assumption of knowledge of true densities unrealistic: Limited training Training data acquired in the presence of noise Dynamically evolving conditional densities Secondary physical effects on signal not modeled Robust hypothesis test 1 (RHT): Uncertainty in knowledge of true densities modeled as class of distributions in the proximity of some nominal density Minimum level of performance guaranteed for all models in the vicinity of nominal density 1 Huber, /22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 3

6 Need for robustness Assumption of knowledge of true densities unrealistic: Limited training Training data acquired in the presence of noise Dynamically evolving conditional densities Secondary physical effects on signal not modeled Robust hypothesis test 1 (RHT): Uncertainty in knowledge of true densities modeled as class of distributions in the proximity of some nominal density Minimum level of performance guaranteed for all models in the vicinity of nominal density 1 Huber, /22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 3

7 Measures of model proximity Contamination model: F c k = {f(x) : f(x) = (1 ɛ k)f k (x)+ɛ k h(x)}, k = 0,1, where f k (x) are the nominal densities, 0 ɛ 0,ɛ 1 1, and h(x) is an unknown probability density. Total variation: F TV k = {f(x) : d TV (f k,f) = f k (x) f(x) dx < ɛ}, k = 0,1. Kullback-Leibler divergence: F KL k = {f(x) : D(f k f) = f k (x)ln ( ) fk (x) dx < ɛ}, k = 0,1. f(x) 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 4

8 Problem set-up D: convex set of pointwise randomized decision functions δ( ). For observation x, we select H 1 with probability δ(x) and H 0 with probability 1 δ(x). False alarm: P F (δ,f 0 ) = Miss: P M (δ,f 1 ) = δ(x)f 0 (x)dx (2) (1 δ(x))f 1 (x)dx. (3) For equally likely hypotheses, the probability of error is given by P E (δ,f 0,f 1 ) = 1 2 [P F(δ,f 0 )+P M (δ,f 1 )]. (4) 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 5

9 Minimax RHT where (δ R,f L 0 (x),fl 1 (x)) = argmin δ D max f 0,f 1 F cp E(δ,f 0,f 1 ), (5) δ R is the robust test (f L 0,f L 1 ) are least favorable densities in F c = F c 0 F c 1. 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 6

10 Solution to minimax RHT f L 0 (x) = { (1 ɛ0 )f 0 (x) 1 c (1 ɛ 0 )f 1 (x) { f1 L (x) = (1 ɛ1 )f 1 (x) c (1 ɛ 1 )f 0 (x) f 1 L 1 (x) f0 δ R (x) = L(x) 1 0 f 1(x) f < 0(x) c f 1(x) f (6) 0(x) c f 1(x) f > 0(x) c f 1(x) f (7) 0(x) c f1 L (x), (8) < 1 f0 L (x) where c and c are defined such that f0 L and f1 L are valid probability distributions, leading to: ( ) f1 (x) P 0 f 0 (x) < c + 1 ( ) f1 (x) c P 1 f 0 (x) c = 1 (9) 1 ɛ 0 ( ) ( ) f1 (x) P 1 f 0 (x) > c +c f1 (x) P 0 f 0 (x) c = 1. (10) 1 ɛ 1 P k is the probability measure w.r.t f k (x). 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 7

11 Underlying intuition Choice of c and c : Consider L(x) = g(x H 1) n g(x H 0 ) = g(x i H 1 ) g(x i H 0 ). If any factor in the product approaches 0 or, L(x) is affected. Introduce robustness by clipping the likelihood ratios to the range c,c. Least favorable densities: Choose f L 0 (x) as close as possible to f 1 (x), and f L 1 (x) as close as possible to f 0 (x). i=1 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 8

12 Scalability challenge RHT reduces to finding c and c such that: ( ) f1 (x) P 0 f 0 (x) < c + 1 ( ) f1 (x) c P 1 f 0 (x) c ( ) ( ) f1 (x) P 1 f 0 (x) > c +c f1 (x) P 0 f 0 (x) c = 1 1 ɛ 0 = 1 1 ɛ 1. Highly nonlinear equations; require Monte Carlo methods (sample generation). Scales very poorly with dimension - computationally intractable. 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 9

13 Probabilistic graphical models Graph G = (V,E) is defined by a set of nodes V = {1,...,n}, and a set of edges E V V which connect pairs of nodes. Graphical model: Random vector defined on a graph such that each node represents one (or more) random variables, and edges reveal conditional dependencies. Underlying graph structure leads to factorization of joint probability distribution. Leverage efficient graph-based algorithms for statistical inference and learning. Trade-off between graph complexity and approximation accuracy. 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 10

14 Probabilistic graphical models Graph G = (V,E) is defined by a set of nodes V = {1,...,n}, and a set of edges E V V which connect pairs of nodes. Graphical model: Random vector defined on a graph such that each node represents one (or more) random variables, and edges reveal conditional dependencies. Underlying graph structure leads to factorization of joint probability distribution. Leverage efficient graph-based algorithms for statistical inference and learning. Trade-off between graph complexity and approximation accuracy. 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 10

15 Some graph structures Tree: x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 f(x) = f(x 1 )f(x 2 x 1 )f(x 3 x 1 )f(x 4 x 2 )f(x 5 x 2 )f(x 6 x 3 )f(x 7 x 3 ). Forest: Undirected acyclic graph with exactly (n 1) edges. Chow-Liu (1965): optimal tree approximation reduces to a maximum weight spanning tree (MWST) problem. Graph with k < (n 1) edges. Junction-tree: Tree-structured graph with edges between clusters of nodes. Clusters connected by an edge have at least one common node. 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 11

16 Block-tree graphs Disjoint clusters of nodes, with only one path connecting any two clusters. 1,2,3 4,5,6 7,8,9 10,11,12 13,14,15 16,17,18 Figure: Example of a block-tree graph Benefits: Favorable complexity-performance trade-off Low cost of sample generation Efficient greedy algorithms to compute block-trees. 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 12

17 Realizing RHT on block-tree graphs Suppose f(x) is Gaussian with mean zero. State-space model on the block-tree graph 2 is given as: where u Ci is white noise. Computing c and c : x Ci = A i x CΥ(i) +u Ci, (11) A i = E(x Ci x T C Υ(i) )[E(x CΥ(i) x T C Υ(i) )] 1 (12) E(u Ci u T C i ) = E(x Ci x T C i ) A i E(x CΥ(i) x T C i ), (13) 1 For each f k (x), compute block-tree graphs G k using a specified value of m (number of nodes in a cluster). Using recursive sampling, generate sample sets S k, k = 0,1. 2 Using S 0 and S 1, compute c and c by Monte Carlo methods. 2 Vats and Moura, /22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 13

18 Complexity benefits Assuming Gaussianity, generating a sample from f(x) is O(n 3 ) - inversion of an n n matrix. For L generated samples, total complexity is O(Ln 3 ). Using block-tree graph with cluster size m, computing block-tree graph has complexity O(logn)+O(mn 2 ) O(mn 2 ), while generating samples has complexity O(rm 3 ) = O(m 2 n). For L generated samples, total complexity is O(L (mn 2 +m 2 n)) O(L mn 2 ). Reduction in complexity for sparse graphical models, since m n and L L. 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 14

19 Results Probability of misclassification RHT Classical hypothesis test ε (= ε 0 = ε 1 ) Figure: Error probability as a function of ɛ for classical hypothesis testing and RHT. 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 15

20 Results Probability of misclassification RHT Graph based RHT (m = 20) Graph based RHT (m = 10) Number of training samples Figure: Error probability as a function of training size, for RHT and graph -based RHT (dense inverse covariance matrix). 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 16

21 Results RHT Graph based RHT Probability of misclassification Number of training samples Figure: Error probability as a function of training size, for RHT and graph -based RHT (sparse inverse covariance matrix). 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 17

22 Results R1 RHT Graph based RHT Probability of misclassification R2 R Number of training samples Figure: Automatic target recognition: Misclassification probability as a function of number training samples for graph-based RHT and RHT. Classification is performed on real-world SAR images. 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 18

23 Summary Real-world classification problems: high-dimensional data, limited training, noisy acquisition need for robust hypothesis tests. Minimax test minimizes worst-case performance of making a decision via pursuit of least favorable densities. RHT is computationally intractable for high-dimensional data. Approximate densities by block-tree graphs and instantiate RHT - significant computational benefits with tolerable loss in classification performance. 10/22/2010 ipal Group Meeting 19

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