Ne a l Mc lo ug hlin - Alb e rta Ag / Fo r Mike Fla nnig a n Uo fa Elle n Ma c d o na ld Uo fa

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1 Using histo ric la nd sc a p e ve g e ta tio n struc ture fo r e c o lo g ic a l re sto ra tio n: e ffe c ts o n b urn p ro b a b ility in the Bo b Cre e k Wild la nd, Alb e rta, Ca na d a. Chris Sto c kd a le PhD Ca nd id a te Unive rsity o f Alb e rta Ne a l Mc lo ug hlin - Alb e rta Ag / Fo r Mike Fla nnig a n Uo fa Elle n Ma c d o na ld Uo fa

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6 WHAT DO WE KNOW? Ma ny stud ie s sho w le ng the ning fire re turn inte rva ls thro ug ho ut we ste rn No rth Ame ric a a nd Alb e rta

7 WHAT DO WE KNOW? Ma ny stud ie s sho w le ng the ning fire re turn inte rva ls thro ug ho ut we ste rn No rth Ame ric a a nd Alb e rta Ve g e ta tio n c o ve r ha s shifte d in fa vo ur o f c lo se d c a no p y c o nife ro us fo re sts

8 WHAT DO WE KNOW? Ma ny stud ie s sho w le ng the ning fire re turn inte rva ls thro ug ho ut we ste rn No rth Ame ric a a nd Alb e rta Ve g e ta tio n c o ve r ha s shifte d in fa vo ur o f c lo se d c a no p y c o nife ro us fo re sts G re a te r fue l c o ntinuity re sults in mo re a re a b urne d

9 WHAT DO WE KNOW? Ma ny stud ie s sho w le ng the ning fire re turn inte rva ls thro ug ho ut we ste rn No rth Ame ric a a nd Alb e rta Ve g e ta tio n c o ve r ha s shifte d in fa vo ur o f c lo se d c a no p y c o nife ro us fo re sts G re a te r fue l c o ntinuity re sults in mo re a re a b urne d Clo se d c a no p y c o nife r fo re sts b urn a t hig he r inte nsity tha n g ra ssla nd s, o p e n c a no p y fo re sts

10 WHAT DO WE KNOW? Hig h inte nsity fire s a re mo re d iffic ult to ma na g e

11 WHAT DO WE KNOW? Hig h inte nsity fire s a re mo re d iffic ult to ma na g e Hig h inte nsity fire s re sult in hig he r se ve rity (mo re e c o lo g ic a lly d a ma g ing )

12 Tre nd s in Ec o to ne s Curre nt b o und a ry Fo o thills Fe sc ue Mo nta ne Sub a lp ine Alp ine

13 Tre nd s in Ec o to ne s Sc hne id e r e t a l 2013, ABMI Curre nt b o und a ry Clima te c a CLIMATE Fo o thills Fe sc ue Mo nta ne Sub a lp ine Alp ine

14 Tre nd s in Ec o to ne s Sc hne id e r e t a l 2013, ABMI CLIMATE Curre nt b o und a ry Clima te c a Ve g e ta tio n tre nd Ob se rve d Ve g e ta tio n Tre nd (Sto c kd a le e t a l. 2016) Fo o thills Fe sc ue Mo nta ne Sub a lp ine Alp ine

15 Tre nd s in Ec o to ne s Sc hne id e r e t a l 2013, ABMI CLIMATE Curre nt b o und a ry Clima te c a Ve g e ta tio n tre nd Ob se rve d Ve g e ta tio n Tre nd (Sto c kd a le e t a l. 2016) Zone s of Ec olog ic a l Te nsion Fo o thills Fe sc ue Mo nta ne Sub a lp ine Alp ine

16 MANAGEMENT ACTIONS Re sto ra tio n o f histo ric fo re st struc ture to re d uc e p ro b a b ility o f hig h inte nsity wild fire Ma ke s wild fire e a sie r to ma na g e Pro te c t c ritic a l e c o lo g ic a l va lue s

17 MANAGEMENT ACTIONS Re sto ra tio n o f histo ric fo re st struc ture to re d uc e p ro b a b ility o f hig h inte nsity wild fire Ma ke s wild fire e a sie r to ma na g e Pro te c t c ritic a l e c o lo g ic a l va lue s UNKNOWN Is this true in the So uthe rn Alb e rta Ro c kie s e c o syste m?

18 Ob je c tive To c o mp a re the b urn p ro b a b ility o f two d iffe re nt sc e na rio s: 1. The Ba se line (la nd sc a p e a s o f 2014) Protected area matrix 2. Histo ric a l Re sto ra tio n (Pro te c te d a re a re sto re d to its c o nd itio n in 1909, surro und e d b y 2014 ma trix) Protected area matrix NOT to c o mp a re b urn p ro b a b ility b e twe e n

19 Hyp o the se s 1. Burn p ro b a b ility o f the histo ric a l re sto ra tio n sc e na rio is d iffe re nt tha n the b a se line sc e na rio * The p ro b a b ility o f inte nse wild fire is lo we r in the histo ric a l re sto ra tio n sc e na rio 3. Fire size s will b e sma lle r in the histo ric a l re sto ra tio n sc e na rio matrix Protected area matrix 1909 Protected area

20 Bo b Cre e k Wild la nd 20,778 ha La rg e st inta c t tra c t o f Mo nta ne la nd sc a p e within Alb e rta La st ma jo r fire in 1936 Ma na g e me nt p la n c a lls fo r use o f p re sc rib e d fire a nd d e sire to re sto re histo ric c o nd itio n

21 BURN-P3 Mo d e l P3 Pro b a b ility Pre d ic tio n Pla nning Mo nte Ca rlo Simula to r Pro me the us Fire G ro wth Mo d e l

22 BURN-P3 Mo d e l Mo d e lling a re a wa s the e ntire Ca lg a ry Fo re st Ma na g e me nt Are a

23 BURN-P3 Mo d e l Mo d e lling a re a wa s the e ntire Ca lg a ry Fo re st Ma na g e me nt Are a Ana lysis a re a wa s the Bo b Cre e k Wild la nd p lus 5km b uffe r zo ne

24 Inp uts Re q uire d fo r the Burn P3 Mo d e l Ve g e ta tio n (fue ls) To p o g ra p hy Ig nitio n d istrib utio n a nd fre q ue nc y We a the r

25 Fue ls Wha t d id this la nd sc a p e lo o k like a t the time o f Euro p e a n se ttle me nt?

26 Ho w d o we use histo ric a l p ho to g ra p hs to me a sure e c o lo g ic a l c ha ng e?

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28 MONOPLOTTING REQUIREMENTS Pho to g ra p h Dig ita l Ele va tio n Mo d e l (DEM) Ortho p ho to (to e sta b lish G ro und Co ntro l Po ints)

29 MONOPLOTTING REQUIREMENTS Pho to g ra p h Dig ita l Ele va tio n Mo d e l (DEM) Ortho p ho to (to e sta b lish G ro und Co ntro l Po ints)

30 MONOPLOTTING REQUIREMENTS Pho to g ra p h Dig ita l Ele va tio n Mo d e l (DEM) Ortho p ho to (to e sta b lish G ro und Co ntro l Po ints)

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32 Id e ntify c o mmo n fe a ture s MLP Image MLP Image

33 Co mp ute vie wshe d o f ima g e Ove rla y sp a tia lly re fe re nc e d g rid o n ima g e Cla ssify ve g e ta tio n, Tra nsfo rm to o rtho g o na l p e rsp e c tive

34 To p o g ra p hy Vertical Exaggeration 1.2x

35 Ig nitio ns a nd Fire We a the r

36 Bo b Cre e k Wild la nd Ve g e ta tio n 1909 MLP Pho to s Coniferous Deciduous Grassland Mixedwood Nonvegetated Woodland Co mp o site fro m 58 histo ric ima g e s 58% o f la nd sc a p e visib le Vertical Exaggeration 1.2x

37 Histo ric a l Re sto ra tio n - Inte rp o la te d Vertical Exaggeration 1.2x

38 isto ric a l Re sto ra tio n Ve g e ta tio n a nd Fue l Typ e Ha rmo niza tio n Vertical Exaggeration 1.2x

39 Ba se line Fue ls AB Go ve rnme nt Da ta 2014 Vertical Exaggeration 1.2x

40 Fue ls Diffe re nc e s in Histo ric a l Re sto ra tio n D1 (a sp e n) +20% O1 (g ra ss) +110% C7 (fir, o p e n) -60% C3 (p ine ) -15% M1 (mixe d ) -65% Histo ric a l Ba se line

41 Fue ls Diffe re nc e s in Histo ric a l Re sto ra tio n D1 (a sp e n) +20% O1 (g ra ss) +110% C7 (fir, o p e n) -60% C3 (p ine ) -15% M1 (mixe d ) -65% Histo ric a l Ba se line Tra nsitio ns C3 mo st sta b le (70% sa me ) M1 le a st sta b le (12% sa me ) O1-64% b e c a me fo re st

42 Fue ls Cha ng e s Ra te o f Sp re a d (RO S) Historical Restoration Scenario Fuels D1-D2 ( m/min) D1-D2 0 O O1 ( m/min) / -1.22/ / 1.22/ Baseline Scenario Fuels C7 ( m/min) / -3.31/ / -2.09/ 3.23 C3 ( m/min) / -7.11/ / -5.89/ M1-M2 ( m/min) / -8.61/ / -7.39/ C / 3.31/ / 2.09/ / -3.80/ / -5.30/ ROS + 15% C / 7.11/ / 3.80/ / 3.80/ / -1.50/ ROS - 37% ROS = 48% M1-M2 7.26/ 8.61/ / 7.39/ / 5.30/ / 1.50/ Rate of Spread / 0.67/ / 1.89/ / 3.98/ / 7.78/ / 9.28/ 10.60

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44 Difference Between Scenarios

45 Histo ric a l vs. Ba se line Co mp a riso n 1: Ra w Burn Pro b a b ility (PB r ) p ro b a b ility o f a ny lo c a tio n b e ing b urne d b y fire o f a ny inte nsity Co mp a riso n 2: Co nd itio na l Burn Pro b a b ility (PB c ) p ro b a b ility o f a ny lo c a tio n b e ing b urne d b y fire o f inte nsity > 4,000 kw/ m Why 4,000 kw/ m? Cro wn fire thre sho ld

46 Ra w Burn Pro b a b ility Ba se line Ra ng e fro m 1-60x

47 Ra w Burn Pro b a b ility Histo ric a l Ra ng e fro m 1-50x

48 Ra w Burn Pro b a b ility Histo ric a l Me a n c ha ng e -1.3% PB r Ra ng e fro m 1-50x

49 De lta Ra w Burn Pro b a b ility Re d = Histo ric a l hig he r Blue = Histo ric a l lo we r

50 Blue = Histo ric a l lo we r <.3 <.05 De lta Ra w Burn Pro b a b ility <.1 Re d = Histo ric a l hig he r <.5

51 Blue = Histo ric a l lo we r <.3 <.05 De lta Ra w Burn Pro b a b ility >10 <.1 Re d = Histo ric a l hig he r >2 <.5

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53 Co nd itio na l Burn Pro b a b ility Ba se line

54 Co nd itio na l Burn Pro b a b ility Histo ric a l

55 De lta Co nd itio na l Burn Pro b a b ility Re d = Histo ric a l hig he r Blue = Histo ric a l lo we r

56 De lta Co nd itio na l Burn Pro b a b ility Me a n c ha ng e -44.8% PB c Re d = Histo ric a l hig he r Blue = Histo ric a l lo we r

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58 Ke y d iffe re nc e s Ke y Me a sure Ba se line Historic a l Ra w Burn Pro b a b ility Co nd itio na l Burn Pro b a b ility -1.3% -44% Me a n fire size ha ha Ma x fire size 10,070 ha 8,739 ha

59 De lta Ra w Burn Pro b a b ility

60

61 Find ing s Lo we r Burn Pro b a b ility a re a s c o nve rte d to De c id uo us fue l typ e o r o the r fue l with re d uc e d Ra te o f Sp re a d Hig he r Burn Pro b a b ility a re a s c o nve rte d to g ra ss o r o the r fue l with inc re a se d Ra te o f Sp re a d

62 Fire Bra ke s, no t Fire Bre a ks Lo we r Burn Pro b a b ility a re a s c o nve rte d to De c id uo us fue l typ e o r o the r fue l with re d uc e d Ra te o f Sp re a d Hig he r Burn Pro b a b ility a re a s c o nve rte d to g ra ss o r o the r fue l with inc re a se d Ra te o f Sp re a d

63 Ac kno wle d g e me nts PhD Sup e rviso r: *Elle n Ma c d o na ld, Unive rsity o f Alb e rta Co mmitte e : *Mike Fla nnig a n (Uo fa) *Eric Hig g s (UVic ) Burn P3 Mo d e lling : *Ne a l Mc Lo ug hlin (AB Ag Fo r) Ma rc Pa risie n

64 Fund ing a nd In-kind Sup p o rt

c. What is the average rate of change of f on the interval [, ]? Answer: d. What is a local minimum value of f? Answer: 5 e. On what interval(s) is f

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