The fulfillment or non-fulfillment of the predictions in the federal convention of 1787

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1 University of Iowa Iowa Research Online Theses and Dissertations 1915 The fulfillment or non-fulfillment of the predictions in the federal convention of 1787 Ada McLean Barker State University of Iowa This work has been identified with a Creative Commons Public Domain Mark 1.0. Material in the public domain. No restrictions on use. This thesis is available at Iowa Research Online: Recommended Citation Barker, Ada McLean. "The fulfillment or non-fulfillment of the predictions in the federal convention of 1787." MA (Master of Arts) thesis, State University of Iowa, Follow this and additional works at:

2 THE FULF ILLMENT OR NON-FULFILLMENT OF THE PREDICTIONS IN THE FEDERAL CONVENTION OF THESIS Subm itted to th e Fa c u lty o f th e Graduate C o lle ge o f th e S ta te U n iv e rs ity o f Iowa in p a r t ia l f u lf illm e n t o f th e requirem ents fo r th e degree of M aster o f A rts. by Ada McLean B a rk e r, B. A., C o rn e ll C o lle g e, Iowa C ity, Io w a, Jun e, 1915.

3 A u th o r s P re fa ce. The p re d ic tio n s found in t h is work were ta k e n from M adison s J o u rn a l o f th e F e d e ra l C onvention c o n ta in e d in E l l i o t, Jonathan, The Debates in th e S ta te Conv e n tio n s on th e A d o p tio n o f th e F e d e ra l C o n s titu tio n, (J. B. L ip p in c o tt C o., 1907) V o l. V. Page re fe re n c e s found in th e te x t fo llo w in g r e fe r to t h is volum e.

4 TABLE OP COST ENTS. Chap. I. Why th e p re d ic tio n s are im p o rta n t 1. Because o f t h e ir h is t o r ic a l fo u n d a tio n Because o f th e men who made them Because o f t h e ir in flu e n c e on th e government Because o f t h e ir h is t o r ic a l valu e 5-6 Chap. I I. The men who made th e p re d ic tio n s 1. G eneral c h a ra c te r o f th e men 7 2. Lien fro m M assa chu setts The men from Hew Y ork The men from Hew Jerse y The men from P e n n sylva n ia The men from D elaw are The men from C o n n e cticu t The men from M aryland The men from Hew Ham pshire The men from V ir g in ia The men from H o rth C a ro lin a The men from South C a ro lin a The men from G eorgia The ra n k in g o f th e men 20-22

5 Chap. I I I. The c la s s if ic a t io n o f th e p re d ic tio n s 1. In tro d u c tio n -m e th o d o f c la s s if ic a t io n C la s s ific a tio n s determ ined "by s ta te s C la s s ific a tio n s determ ined by a u th o rs C la s s ific a tio n s determ ined by p re d ic tio n s C o nclusio n Chap. IV P re d ic tio n s r e la t in g to th e e x e c u tiv e departm ent 1. ITumber o f th e e x e c u tiv e E le c tio n o f th e e x e c u tiv e Power o f th e e x e c u tiv e Impeachment o f th e e x e c u tiv e C o u n c il f o r th e e x e c u tiv e S a la ry o f th e e x e c u tiv e D uty o f th e v ic e p re s id e n t 44 Chap. V. P re d ic tio n s r e la t in g to th e le g is la t iv e departm ent 1. The e le c tio n and s u ffra g e o f th e le g is la t u r e The s a la ry o f members o f th e le g is la t u r e The se ssio n o f th e le g is la t u r e The powers o f th e le g is la t u r e 71-87

6 Chap. V I. P re d ic tio n s r e la t in g t o th e ju d i c ia l departm ent. 1. The appointm ent o f judges I n f e r io r C ourts S a la rie s o f judges Power o f th e n a tio n a l ju d ic ia r y Chap. V I I. M isce lla n e o u s p re d ic tio n s. 1. P re d ic tio n s r e la t in g to e m ig ra tio n P re d ic tio n s r e la tin g to im m ig ra tio n P re d ic tio n s r e la t in g to s u ffra g e P re d ic tio n s r e la tin g to s ta te o f f ic e r s P re d ic tio n s r e la t in g to th e r e la t io n o f th e s ta te to th e fe d e ra l government P re d ic tio n s r e la t in g t o th e c o n s t it u t io n as a document

7 1 Chap. I. Why th e p re d ic tio n s are im p o rta n t. On May 25, 1787, a co n ve n tio n o f f i f t y - f i v e d e le gate s from tw e lv e o f th e s ta te s composing th e C o n fe d e ra tio n assembled in P h ila d e lp h ia f o r th e purpose o f d is c u s s in g means by w hich th e weaknesses o f th e government co u ld be rem edied. Prom t h is tim e u n t i l th e work o f th e c o n v e n tio n was fin is h e d, September 17, 1787, th e members in d u lg e d i n a g re a t d e a l o f s p e c u la tio n as to th e fu tu re o f th e c o u n try. These s p e c u la tio n s are in te r e s tin g and s ig n if ic a n t to us, who liv e a f t e r a s u f f ic ie n t amount o f tim e has elapsed t o v e r if y them. They are s ig n i f i c a n t r because o f t h e ir h i s t o r ic a l fo u n d a tio n ; because o f th e prominence o f th e men who made them; because o f t h e ir in flu e n c e upon th e fu tu r e o f th e governm ent; and f i n a l l y because o f t h e ir h is t o r ic a l v a lu e in re v e a lin g th e c o n d itio n o f th e s ta te s in 1787, as w e ll as th e view s o f th e men who liv e d a t th a t tim e. Any in t e llig e n t s p e c u la tio n must be based on a th o ro u g h know l edge o f th e factb, and c o n d itio n s must be weighed and compared and conclu sio n s drawn th e re fro m. Upl^ody o f men co u ld have re a lis e d t h is more th a n d id th e a u th o rs in th e fe d e ra l c o n v e n tio n, hence th e y founded t h e i r s p e c u la tio n s upon th e e xperience o f th e a n c ie n t w o rld, Europe, and t h e ir own s ta te s. S ix te e n c f th e tw e n ty -n in e p ro p h e ts o f th e c o n v e n tio n d e f in it e ly re fe rre d to h is t o r ic a l in c id e n ts as bases f o r t h e ir assum ptions, and no doubt th e re m a in in g t h ir t e e n fo rm u la te d t h e ir id eas upon h is t o r ic a l e x p e rie n c e, as a l l were acq u a in te d w ith h is to r y and la w. A few examples w i l l i l l u s t r a t e

8 2 t h is use o f h is to r y in making th e p re d ic tio n s. A lexander H a m ilto n used th e A m phictyonic C o u n cil and th e German C o n fe d e ra tio n as examples o f u n succe ssfu l a ttem p ts to form a government w ith th e s ta te s as sove re ig n s, (p ). P ie rc e B u tle r contended f o r a s in g le magis t r a t e "because o f "th e o p p o rtu n ity he had had^)f seeing th e manner in w h ich a p l u r a lit y o f m ilit a r y heads d is tra c te d H o lla n d when th re a te n e d w ith in v a s io n s hy th e m ilit a r y tr c flp s ". (p ). Mason opposed a llo w in g th e senate to o r ig in a te money h i l l s. George "He compared th e case to Poynings* la w, and s ig n if ie d th a t th e House c f R e p re se n ta tive s m ight he re n d e re d, hy degrees, lik e th e P a rlia m e n t o f P a ris, th e mere d e p o s ito ry o f th e decrees c f th e S enate", (p.4.15). IT a th a n ie l Gorham used th e experience o f M assachusetts to support h is p r e d ic tio n (p ). "The c o c n s titu tio n o f M assachusetts had provided- th a t th e re p re s e n ta tiv e s o f th e la r g e r d i s t r i c t s should he i n exact r a t io to t h e ir numbers; and e xp e rie n ce, he th o u g h t, had shown th e p ro v is io n to he e x p e d ie n t." The p re d ic tio n s a re im p o rta n t because o f th e a b i l i t y, educat io n, and experience o f t h e i r authnors. F ifte e n o f them were c o lle g e g ra d u a te s, and th e m a jo r ity had spent some tim e in c o lle g e. Twenty o f them had s tu d ie d la w, and hence were a cq u a in te d w ith th e h is to r y and p r in c ip le s o f governm ent. Hine o f them had been abroad, and had seen one or more o f th e European governm ents in p r a c tic e. I n a d d itio n to t h e ir e d u c a tio n and t r a in in g, th e y had a l l h e ld some p u b lic o f f ic e i n t h e ir re s p e c tiv e s ta te s, and many o f them had been members o f th e C o n tin e n ta l Congress and th e Congress c f th e C o n fe d e ra tio n. I n a d d itio n to t h is in c id e n ta l t r a in in g, seme o f them, r e a liz in g th e im p ortance o f th e is s u e at s ta k e,

9 3 had e s p e c ia lly prepared f o r i t by making a d e ta ile d s tu d y o f a l l th e confe d e ra cie s and fre e in s t it u t io n s "both a n c ie n t and modern. Alexander H a m ilto n, James W ils o n, and James Madison belong to t h is group. Hot o n ly were such men th e makers o f th e p re d ic tio n s, but th e y were to have an o p p o rtu n ity to h e lp v e r if y those p re d ic tio n s f o r e t e llin g good and d is p ro v e th o se fo re b o d in g i l l. The a u thors were p r a c t ic a lly a l l young men whose work had ju s t begun. O nly one, Benjam in F ra n k lin, was over s ix t y years o f age, f if t e e n were under f o r t y, and th e average age o f th e whole number was o n ly f o r t y - th r e e. Many o f them h e ld p u b lic o ffic e s under th e f i r s t a d m in is tra tio n. John Langdon, W illia m P a tte rs o n, and George Read were se n a to rs in th e f i r s t congress; James M adison, Roger Sherman, and E lb rid g e G erry were re p re s e n ta tiv e s ; A lexander Hami l t o n was s e c re ta ry o f th e tre a s u ry ; Edmund Randolph was a tto rn e y g e n e ra l;a n d John R utledge and James W ilso n were a s s o c ia te ju s tic e s in th e supreme c o u rt. The p re d ic tio n s i n th e fe d e ra l c o n v e n tio n have served to g u id e th e government by d e te rm in in g th e use o f th e c o n s titu tio n, and h o ld in g out w arnings to th e p u b lic o f f ic e r s. The w r itte n c o n s t it u t io n form s but th e embryo o f our g re a t body o f w r it t e n and u n w ritte n la w, but th e p r e d ic tio n s in th e c o n v e n tio n re v e a l th e a t t it u d e w hich th e a u th o rs would have ta k e n tow a rd many o f th e se la w s. A few examples w i l l s u f f ic e to i l l u s t r a t e t h is p o in t. The c o n s t it u t io n se ts no l i m i t to th e number o f te rm s one may se rve as p re s id e n t, b u t p re cedent, an u n w ritte n la w, has decided th a t * th e y s h a ll be two in number. The p re d ic tio n s in th e c o n v e n tio n w ould support t h is as a method o f a v o id in g ty ra n n y, (p ; 359; 552). W ashington knew t h is and w is e ly a lla y e d t h e i r fe a rs by

10 4. re fu s in g a t h ir d te rm. The c o n s t it u t io n makes no p ro v is io n f o r a n a tio n a l hank, and th ro u g h o u t i t s h is to r y i t was d e cla re d uncons t it u t io n a l. The d e fe a t o f th e m otio n to g iv e congress power " to c h a rte r in c o rp o ra tio n s " shows th a t t h is view would have been supported by th e fram ers o f th e c o n s titu tio n. Rufus K ing s a id, "The s ta te s w i l l be p re ju d ic e d and d iv id e d in to p a r tie s by i t. I n P h ila d e lp h ia and Hew Y o rk, i t w i l l be re fe rre d to th e e s ta b lis h ment o f a bank w hich has been th e s u b je c t o f c o n te n tio n in th o se c i t i e s ", (p ). L ik e w is e th e v o te and p re d ic tio n s (p ) in th e co n ve n tio n would support th e argument th a t th e c o n s tru c tio n o f c a n a ls, a t n a tio n a l expense, was u n c o n s titu tio n a l. On t h is ground Madison vetoed th e "bonus b i l l in 1816 w h ich p ro vid e d a p e rp e tu a l sum f o r th e c o n s tru c tio n o f roads and c a n a ls. The p r in c ip a l r u le in in te r p r e tin g any body o f laws is to determ ine th e in te n t io n o f th e law g iv e r when th e law was enacted. Hence th e p re d ic tio n s may re v e a l th e in te n tio n s o f th e fram ers o f th e c o n s t it u t io n. Por example, th e p re d ic tio n s (p ;465) show th a t th e fram ers o f th e c o n s t it u t io n w ished t o g iv e th e n a tio n a l government la rg e powers over th e s ta te m i l i t i a. The p re d ic tio n s w ould not support th e a c tio n o f th e govern ors o f C o n n e cticu t and M assachusetts when th e y re fu s e d, in 1812, to a llo w th e m i l i t i a o f t h e ir s ta te s to march a t th e o rd e r o f th e P re s id e n t. L ik e w is e th e p re d ic tio n s (p ;4 3 8 ) would uphold th e in t e r p r e t a t io n o f th e c o n s t it u t io n a llo w in g congress to suppress th e W hiskey R e b e llio n and th e Chicago P ullm an S t r ik e. Many o f th e fram ers o f th e cons t i t u t i o n d id not b e lie v e i t necessary t o s ta te t h a t th e fe d e ra l government had th e r ig h t to suppress in s u r r e c tio n in th e s ta te s.

11 5 "ITo doubt could be e n te rta in e d th a t congress had th e a u th o r ity i f th e y had th e means." Some o f th e w arnings h e ld out by th e p re d ic tio n s are a g a in st an a ttem p t to ra is e revenue by d ir e c t ta x e s (p.3 9 3,4 3 3 ). "S eize and s e l l t h e i r e ffe c ts and you push them in t o r e v o lt s. " & w arning ) a g a in s t th e is s u in g o f paper money (p ); and a w arning a g a in st th e use o f fo rc e b y th e fe d e ra l government upon a s ta te (p.2 5 8, 4 4 0). Since th e p re d ic tio n s were based on c o n d itio n s as th e y exis te d, th e y re v e a l th e s it u a t io n o f th e c o lo n ie s in 178?. The s ta te s were d iv id e d in t o p a r tie s, and s in c e each s ta te regarded i t s e l f as s o v e re ig n, p a rty boundaries were s ta te b o u n d a rie s. Sometimes t h e ir d iffe re n c e s a n d je a lo u s ie s were based on in d u s try (p. 168 ); sometimes th e y were based on s iz e (p,1 7 5 ;3 2 2 ;1 7 6 ; 1 7 5;2 85); and sometimes on th e h o ld in g o f s la v e s. One p e c u lia r fa c t w ith re fe re n c e to t h is la s t p o in t i s, however, th a t the m a jo r ity o f people b o th n o rth and s o u th b e lie v e d th a t s la v e ry was g ra d u a lly dying c u t, and th a t th e south e rn s ta te s would f i n a l l y abandon th e tra d e them selves (p ). A n o th e r p e c u lia r c o n d itio n e x is tin g a t t h is tim e was th e h o s t i l i t y a g a in s t th e s e ttle m e n t o f th e west and th e people who should d w e ll th e re. There was th e fe e lin g th a t a n y th in g w h ich c o u ld be done to s to p t h is expansion would be advantageous (p ;2 7 9 ;2 9 4 ;2 9 5 ;2 9 7 ;3 0 0 ; ;3 1 0 ;) The s ta te s f e l t them selves so separated in in te r e s ts and m otives th a t a person moving from one s ta te to a n o th e r w ould need as much tim e to adapt h im s e lf to h is new home as w ould a fo r e ig n e r. "An em igrant from ITew England to South C a ro lin a, o r G eorgia, would know l i t t l e o f i t s a ffa irs, and c o u ld not be supposed to

12 6 a c q u ire a th o ro u g h knowledge in le s s tim e than seven years (p ) Perhaps t h is is not d i f f i c u l t to understand when we remember th e d i f f i c u l t y o f com m unication and t r a v e l a t t h is tim e. "One year w i l l he alm ost consumed in p re p a rin g f o r and t r a v e llin g to and from th e seat o f n a tio n a l b u s in e s s. ( p. 184) Some o f th e problem s o f th e c o n fe d e ra tio n bro u g h t out by th e p re d ic tio n s were; th e r e g u la tio n o f commerce (p ), and th e tr o u b le w ith Spain to secure the n a v ig a tio n o f th e M is s is s ip p i as an o u tle t f o r w este rn tra d e (p ); th e d i f f i c u l t i e s w ith England over th e f is h e r ie s (p ); and th e o p p o s itio n to th e C in c in n a ti (p ). The p re d ic ito n s re v e a l to us th e view s and o p in io n s o f t h e ir a u th o rs, and are c h a r a c te r is tic o f t h e ir fo rm e r s e rv ic e s to th e c o u n try as w e ll as o f th e g re a t p a rt th e y p la ye d in s e ttin g th e government on i t s fe e t. The fo llo w in g ch a p te r w i l l emphasize these c h a r a c te r is tic s.

13 7 Chap. I I. The Men who made th e P re d ic tio n s. Out o f the t h ir t e e n s ta te s who had been jo in e d under th e A r t ic le s o f C o n fe d e ra tio n, Rhode Is la n d alone re fu sed to send dele g a te s to th e c o n s t it u t io n a l c o n v e n tio n. Each o f th e tw e lv e s ta te s in attendance c o n trib u te d one or more p re d ic tio n s acco rd in g to th e n a tu re, number, and p ro p h e tic te n d e n cie s o f i t s d e le g a te s, tw e n ty -n in e Of the f i f t y - f i v e d e le g a te s who a tte n d e d th e convention/m ade p re d ic tio n s. There can be no q u e s tio n as to th e a b i l i t y o f these men to make p re d ic tio n s, f o r nowhere in th e w o rld c o u ld an assembly o f men be found so w e ll versed in th e kncv.oe dge o f th e past and sc w e ll prepared to a p p ly th e experiences o f th e p a st to p re sent and fu tu r e c o n d itio n s. T h is p re p a ra tio n had come not o n ly from th e stu d y o f h is to r y and governm ent, b u t many o f th e c o n v e n tio n had been to Europe and s tu d ie d fre e in s t it u t io n s in so f a r as th e y e x is te d in England and p o rtio n s o f th e c o n tin e n t. O thers had had an a c tiv e p a rt in th e fo rm a tio n o f t h e ir s ta te c o n s titu tio n s, and had tra c e d th e p r in c ip le s adopted in them to t h e ir success o r f a ilu r e. I t w i l l be w e ll to re v ie w th e men who made th e p re d ic tio n s in groups a cco rd in g to th e s ta te s w h ich th e y re p re s e n te d, s in c e th e s u b je c t m a tte r o f t h e ir p re d ic tio n s was g e n e ra lly suggested to emphasize p r in c ip le s f o r w h ich th e s ta te as a whole s to o d. Three o f M assachusetts fo u r d e le g a te s c o n trib u te d th ir t y - o n e p r e d ic tio n s. E lb rid g e G erry headed th e l i s t w ith f if t e e n specula tio n s w h ich made him fo u r th i n th e w hole l i s t o f c o n tr ib u to r s.

14 8 H is P re d ic tio n s were lo n g, d e f in it e, and d e ta ile d, and v e r if y th e o p in io n w hich W illia m P ie rc e o f G eorgia had o f him, "He goes e x te n s iv e ly in to a l l s u b je c ts th a t he speaks on w ith o u t re s p e c t to ebgance or flo w e r o f d ic t io n.# As Mr. G erry had been a successf u l m erchant, many o f h is p re d ic tio n s a re concerned w ith commerce (p, ;1 4 4 ;3 0 5 ;3 1 0 ;4 3 3 ). O thersjbring out h is d is lik e f o r anyth in g a r is t o c r a t ic or m o n a rc h ic a l, and are c h a r a c te r is tic o f h is o p p o s itio n to such d u rin g h is p u b lic l i f e (p,1 3 3 ;1 8 8 ;4 3 9 ;4 5 5 ; 526). He had fo rm e rly shown t h is o p p o s itio n by h is r e fu s a l to serve in th e s e n a to ria l branch o f th e M assachusetts Assembly. I n 1785, when th e co n v e n tio n met to re v is e th e governm ent, he opposed every move f o r e n la rg in g th e powers o f Congress. I n 1787, he f i n a l l y re fu sed to s ig n th e c o n s t it u t io n, fe e lin g i t to be undemoc r a t ic. S ix o f h is p re d ic tio n s have been e n t ir e ly or p a r t ia l ly f u l f i l l e d. H a th a n ie l Gorham made te n p r e d ic tio n s. Seven o f these r e fe r to th e le g is la t iv e de partm e nt, and th re e t o th e j u d i c i a l d e p a rtment. Mr. Gorham s p u b lic l i f e had made him in te r e s te d in these two branches. He had been a member o f th e M assachusetts Assembly, o f th e C o n tin e n ta l Congress, and a ju d g e o f th e c o u rt o f common p le a s. As W illia m P ie rc e s a id, "Ho man is more p e rspicuous and f u l l. " # Three o f h is fo re c a s ts have been f u l f i l l e d. # F e rra n d, Max, Records o f th e F e d e ra l C o n ve n tio n, V o l. I I I, P. 88, # F e rra n d, Max, Records o f th e F e d e ra l C o nve ntio n, V o l. I l l, P. 87.

15 9 Bufus K in g, although, "he ranked among th e lu m in a rie s o f h is age" made h u t s ix p r e d ic tio n s, fo u r r e la t in g to th e e x e c u tiv e departm ent, and two r e la tin g to th e j u d i c i a l departm ent. E a rly in h is c a re e r he to o had opposed a s tro n g n a tio n a l governm ent, hut th e year b e fo re th e co n v e n tio n th e fo rm id a b le Shays R e b e llio n had broken out in h is s ta te, w hich p la in ly showed th e i n a b i l i t y o f th e o ld Congress to in t e r f e r e w ith or suppress an in s u r r e c tio n. T h is changed Mr. K in g s views and we f in d th a t in th e co n ve n tio n he advocated a s tro n g n a tio n a l government w ith re p re s e n ta tio n in th e le g is la t u r e by people ra th e r th a n s ta te s (p ;3 0 4 ). Three o f Mr. K in g 's p re d ic tio n s have been f u l f i l l e d. Hew Y ork c o n trib u te d b u t s ig h t p r e d ic tio n s, and these were a l l made by one d e le g a te, A lexander H a m ilto n. T h is s m a ll number was p ro b a b ly due to th e fa c t th a t th e two o th e r d e b a te s, Robert Y ates and John L a n s in g, l e f t th e c o n v e n tio n e a rly in i t s proceedin g s. Thefhad been in flu e n c e d by Governor George C lin to n, who had openly d e c la re d th a t no good could come from th e c o n v e n tio n a t P h ila d e lp h ia, and th a t th e A r t ic le s o f C o n fe d e ra tio n c o u ld s t i l l be made adequate to th e needs o f the U n io n.^ The o b je c t o f Hami l t o n s p r e d ic tio n s, as o f a l l o f h is speeches,was to le s s e n th e ^Wm. P ie rc e 's H otes, P e rra n d, Max, Records o f th e P e d e ra l C onvention, V o l. I l l, P. 87. A " T a y lo r, H annis, The O r ig in and Growth o f th e Am erican C o n s titu tio n, p. 302.

16 10 fo rc e o f s ta te attachm ents and le a d th e d e le gate s to a comprehens io n o f the n e c e s s ity o f an e f f ic ie n t n a tio n a l s o v e re ig n ty. That he should put n a tio n b e fo re s ta te was n a tu r a l, s in ce he could c la im no s ta te as h is n a tiv e s ta te, havin g "been h o rn on th e l i t t l e is la n d o f U evis in the West In d ie s. T h is may a ls o e x p la in M s p r e d ic tio n th a t "persons in Europe o f moderate fo rtu n e s w i l l he fond o f coming here where th e y w i l l he on a le v e l w ith th e f i r s t c it iz e n s ". Though an im m ig ra n t, H a m ilto n had h e ld o ffic e s o f honor and d is t in c t io n as M g h as any n a tiv e c it iz e n, and r e a liz e d f u l l y th e o p p o rtu n itie s Am erica o ffe re d. Rive o f H a m ilto n 's P re d ic tio n s have been f u l f i l l e d. I n c o n tra s t to t h is s tro n g n a tio n a l fe e lin g conta in e d in H a m ilto n s p re d ic tio n s is th e narrow s ta te fe e lin g expressed in those o f th e two de le g a te s from ITew J e rs e y, D avid B re a rly and W illia m P a tte rs o n. T h e ir p re d ic tio n s have not heen f u l f i l l e d s in c e th e s ta te s have never a lig n e d them selves a cco rd in g to s iz e. The d e le g a te s from P e n n sylvania c o n trib u te d more p re d ic tio n s than those from any o th e r s t a t e f if t y - t w o in number. T M r t y o f these p re d ic tio n s were c o n trib u te d by one man, Gouverneur M o rris, who lik e d to in d u lg e in s p e c u la tio n s on th e fu tu r e to such an exte n t as to p la ce Mm f i r s t on th e l i s t o f p ro p h e ts. W illia m P ie rc e s a id o f Mm, "W ith an i n f i M t e s tr e tc h o f fa n cy he b rin g s to view tm n g s,w h e n he is engaged in deep a rg u m e n ta tio n, th a t re n d e r a l l th e la b o r o f reasonin g easy and p le a s in g." ^ Mr. M o rris * p r e a ic t- it R e rra n ^ Max, Records o f th e R ederal C o nve ntio n, V o l. I l l, P. 92.

17 11 io n s show no in d ic a tio n o f lo c a l p re ju d ic e, h u t in a l l o f them as w e ll as in h is arguments he was an Am erican and put f o r t h g re a t e f f o r t to e x tin g u is h s ta te fe e lin g in h is c o lle a g u e s. The c i r cumstances o f h is l i f e had prevented him from fe e lin g these s tro n g s ta te a tta ch m e n ts, s in ce he had been horn in one s ta te, and re s id e d f o r seven years in a n oth er from whose in h a b ita n ts he had re c e iv e d honors equal to any bestowed upon her n a tiv e sons. T h is Am ericanism, however, was lim it e d to th e o ld C o n fe d e ra tio n, s in ce he w ith o th e rs in th e c o n v e n tio n b e lie v e d th a t measures ought to be ta ke n to p re vent th e g ro w th o f th e w e st, and keep th e balance o f power in th e hands o f th e " A t la n t ic S ta te s ".(p.2 7 9,2 9 4 ;2 9 8 ). Mr. M o rris was not dem ocratic in h is p o l i t i c a l o p in io n s, b u t had an in c u ra b le d is t r u s t i n m ankind, as is shown by p re d ic tio n s on p. 346;386. H is undem ocratic te n d e n cie s are s t i l l fu r th e r shown by th e fa c t th a t he d id not w ish th e e x e c u tiv e to be im peachable (p ;3 3 5 ;528;501). Among M r. M o r r is p re d ic tio n s are te n re la t in g to commerce and fin a n c e (p ;3 9 3 ;4 3 3 ;4 3 4 ;4 5 4 ;4 8 9 ). That he had a knowledge of.commerce and fin a n c e is proven by th e fa c t th a t th e C o n tin e n ta l Congress had chosen him as a s s is ta n t fin a n c ie r w ith Robert M o rris. T h is in tim a te knowledge o f f in a n c ia l a f f a ir s a ls o accounts f o r h is p re d ic tio n s opposing paper money ( p.434^436). H a lf o f M r. M o rris ' p r e d ic tio n s were f u l f i l l e d. James W ilso n made tw e lv e p r e d ic tio n s. L ik e Gouverneur M o rris, he was n a tio n a l in h is id e a s, s in c e he was b o rn in S co t la n d ; b u t u n lik e him, he had an in h e re n t t r u s t in mankind and was

18 12 a warm advocate o f re p re s e n ta tiv e governm ent. T h is is shown by h is p re d ic tio n s in th e co n ve n tio n em phasizing an e x e c u tiv e (p ) and members o f b o th houses o f th e le g is la t u r e chosen by th e people (p,1 6 7 ;1 6 9 ;2 3 9 ;2 4 5 ). W ilson seems t o have had a c le a re r co n ceptio n th a n any o f h is contem poraries o f th e fu tu r e course o f th e government o f th e U n ite d S ta te s. H is id e a s were those tow ard w hich th e n a tio n has ever s in c e been w o rk in g. He fa vo re d p u b lic improvements a t n a tio n a l expense (p ); he fa vo re d a n a tio n a l bank (p ); and had argued f o r i t a t an e a r lie r tim e s a y in g, "Whenever an o b je c t occurs to th e d ir e c t io n o f w hich no p a r t ic u la r s ta te is com petent, the management must o f n e c e s s ity belong to th e U n ite d S ta te s in Congress assem bled;"^' he argued f o r th e p o p u la r e le c tio n o f senato rs in la r g e d is t r ic t s, a method w hich has re c e n t l y been adopted by a c o n s t it u t io n a l amendment. That he was more " n a tio n a l th a n h is g e n e ra tio n " may be e x p la in e d by W illia m P ie rc e s statem ent about him, "Government seems to have been h is p e c u lia r s tu d y, a l l th e p o l i t i c a l in s t it u t io n s o f th e w o rld he knows in d e t a il, and can tra c e th e causes and e ffe c ts o f every r e v o lu tio n from th e e a r lie s t stages o f th e G reecian commonwealth down to the p re sent tim e w. 7/"~ S ix o f M r. W ils o n s p r e d ic tio n s have been f u l f i l l e d. $ W ils o n, James, W orks, V o l. I, p $ P e rra nd, Max, Records o f th e F e d e ra l C o nve ntio n, V o l. I l l, p. 92.

19 13 Since Benjam in F ra n k lin was th e o ld e s t p u b lic man in Am erica, th e c o n v e n tio n lis te n e d to h is p re d ic tio n s w ith g re a t re s p e c t. H is c a re e r o f p u b lic s e rv ic e had extended over h a lf a c e n tu ry in Am erica and Europe. He e n force d and s u b s ta n tia te d h is o p in io n s by examples from Europe or th e a n c ie n t w o rld. From a stu d y o f these he was apprehensive " th a t th e governments o f these U n ite d S ta te s would end in m onarchy". He expressed t h is fe a r in th re e p re d ic tio n s (p ). I n s p ite o f these fe a rs he had a g re a t d e a l o f confid e n ce in th e people o f A m erica, sayin g " t h is government is l i k e l y to be w e ll a d m in is te re d f o r a course o f y e a rs, and can o n ly end i n despotism as e th e r form s have done b e fo re i t, when th e people s h a ll have become so c o rru p te d as to need d e s p o tic governm ent" (p ). Mr. F r a n k lin 's p r e d ic tio n s, u n lik e th e o th e rs, were not spontaneous, s in c e, because o f h is age, he had place d h is id e a s on paper, w h ich he had some o th e r member o f th e Conv e n tio n read. F iv e o f F r a n k lin s p re d ic tio n s have been f u l f i l l e d. George Clymer made b u t one p r e d ic tio n and i t has not b e e n f u l f i l l e d. The de le g a te s o f D elew are, Gunning B e d fo rd, John D ic k in s o n, and George Read, c o n trib u te d fo u r p re d ic tio n s. They had been sent to th e c o n v e n tio n w ith c re d e n tia ls p r o h ib itin g them fro m changing th e A r t ic le s o f C o n fe d e ra tio n, e s ta b lis h in g an e q u a lity o f vote s among th e s ta te s. T h e re fo re, i t is n o t s u r p r is in g th a t Mr. B e d fo rd s p re d ic tio n s should d e a l w ith fe a r o f th e la rg e s ta te s. H is p re d ic tio n s were r a d ic a l and extreme and v e r if y th e

20 14 d e s c r ip tio n g iv e n by W illia m P ie rc e, "He is a b o ld nervous speaker and has a v e ry commanding and s t r ik in g manner, h u t he is warm and JL im petuous in h is tem per, and p r e c ip ita te in h is ju d g m e n t".7' George Bead s p r e d ic tio n is s h o rt and a b s tra c t (p ). John D ic k in s o n 's p r e d ic tio n is an example o f W illia m P ie rc e 's d e s c r ip t io n o f h is speeches, "W ith an a ffe c te d a i r o f wisdom, he la b o rs to produce a t r i f l e, - h is language is ir r e g u la r and in c o r r e c t, - h is flo u r is h e s ( f o r he sometimes a tte m p ts them) are l i k e e x p irin g fla m e s, th e y ju 3 t show them selves and go o u t; no tra c e s c f them are l e f t on the mind to cheer or anim ate i t ". " A lth o u g h C o n n e cticu t had b u t two d e le g a te s who made p r e d ic t io n s, O liv e r E lls w o rth and Roger Sherman, she c o n trib u te d n in e te e n. Of t h is number, Mr. E lls w o rth made e ig h t. He came to th e convent io n as a s tro n g advocate f o r th e r ig h t o f th e in d iv id u a l s ta te s, # b u t w ith h is " c le a r, deep, and copious u n d e rs ta n d in g " he co u ld see th a t compromise would be necessary u n le ss th e co n ve n tio n should end in f a ilu r e. H is p re d ic tio n s (p ) show h is e f f o r t s # F e rra n d, Max, Records o f th e F e d e ra l C o nve ntio n, V o l. I l l, p. 92. ^ F e rra n d, Max, Records o f th e F e d e ra l C o nve ntio n, V o l. I l l, p. 92. JL 7,F e rra n d, Max, Records o f th e F e d e ra l C o nve ntio n, V o l. I l l, p. 89.

21 15 to calm th e opposing fa c tio n s. He was j u s t i f i e d i n making two p re d ic tio n s w ith re fe re n c e to the ju d ic ia r y, s in ce a t the tim e o f th e c o n v e n tio n he was Judge o f th e Supreme Court o f C o n n e c tic u t. O nly two o f h is p re d ic tio n s have "been f u l f i l l e d. W illia m P ie rc e s a id o f Roger Sherman, i f he cannot e m b e ll- # is h, he can fu r n is h thoughts th a t are w ise and u s e fu l. H is p r e d ic tio n s, no d o u b t, d id appear to he reasonable and based on common sense, b u t c o n d itio n s changed so th a t o n ly fo u r o f them were f u l f i l l e d. The p ro phets o f M aryland were John P ra n c is Mercer and L u th e r M a rtin, who to g e th e r gave seven p re d ic tio n s. Mr. M ercer i l l u s tr a te d h is p re d ic tio n s by examples from form er h is to r y. Two o f h is p re d ic tio n s have been v e ry d e f in it e ly f u l f i l l e d ( p ). I t was n a tu ra l th a tp ir. M a r tin s two p re d ic tio n s should r e la te to the ju d ic ia r y departm e nt, s in c e he had been educated f o r th e b a r, and a t th e tim e o f th e c o n v e n tio n, he was a tto rn e y g e n e ra l f o r M aryland. Us p re d ic tio n s have been p a r t i a l l y f u l f i l l e d. John Langdcn, Hew H am pshire s o n ly p ro p h e t, c o n trib u te d b u t one p r e d ic tio n (p ). T h is p r e d ic tio n has u s u a lly been tr u e. Hew Hampshire had b u t two d e le g a te s in th e c o n v e n tio n, H ichola s G ilm an and M r. Langdon. V ir g in ia stood second as a p ro p h e tic s ta te in th e c o n v e n tio n. Three o f her d e le g a te s, James M adison, Edmund Randolph, and George Mason, c o n trib u te d f o r t y - e ig h t p r e d ic tio n s. James M adison had r e a liz e d th e im p ortance o f th e is s u e a t sta ke and had prepared h im - # P e rra n d, Max, Records o f the P e d e ra l C o n ve n tio n, V o l. I l l, P. 89.

22 16 s e lf "before the c o n ventio n "by s tu d y in g a l l th e c o n fe d e ra cie s and fe d e ra l arrangem ents, "both a n c ie n t and modern. W illia m P ie rc e said o f him, " I n th e management o f every g re a t q u e s tio n, he e v i d e n tly to o k th e le a d in th e c o n v e n tio n, and though he cannot "be c a lle d an o r a to r, he is a most a g re e a b le, e lo q u e n t, and c o n vin cin g speaker. Prom a s p i r i t o f in d ia stry and a p p lic a tio n, w h ich he p o sseslfin a most eminent degree, he always comes fo rw a rd th e "best in fo rm e d man o f any p o in t in debate. The a f f a ir s o f th e U n ite d S ta te s, he perhaps has th e most c o rre c t knowledge o f, o f any man in th e u n i o n. H i s p re d ic tio n s t e s t i f y to h is broad n a tio n a l views and a re e n t ir e ly fr e e from any s ta te c r lo c a l p re ju d ic e s. He d e s ire d to g iv e Congress la rg e powers over fo r e ig n and i n t e r s ta te tra d e (p ). The c o n f lic t as to ju r is d ic t io n between M aryland and V ir g in ia had convinced him o f th e disadvantages o f s ta te c o n tr o l over tra d e. He b e lie v e ith a t f o r th e good o f th e whole c o u n try n a tio n a l t r ib u n a ls w ith e x te n s iv e powers s h o u ld be e sta b lis h e d (1 5 9 ;1 6 4 ;3 2 9 ;3 4 5 ). Most o f Mr. M adiso n 's p re d ic tio n s re v e a l h is a c c u ra te knowledge o f c o n d itio n s and c o rre c t fo r e s ig h t based them u p o n /(p ;2 6 4 ;3 9 2 ;4 0 9 ;4 6 5 ;4 7 7 ). The f u lf ilm e n t o f h is p r e d ic t io n re g a rd in g s la v e r y,th a t "tw e n ty years w i l l produce a l l th e m is c h ie f th a t can be apprehended from th e l i b e r t y to im p o rt sla ves (p ) has been e s p e c ia lly s ig n if ic a n t. P ourteen o f M r. M adiso n's p re d ic tio n s have been e n t ir e ljr o r p a r t i a l l y f u l f i l l e d. # P e rra n d, Max, Records o f th e F e d e ra l C o n v e n t io n, V o l.ill,p. 89.

23 17 Edmund. Randolph made seven p re d ic tio n s in the c o n v e n tio n, two o f w hich have been f u l f i l l e d. Two o f h is p re d ic tio n s (p ) appear to he in c o n s is te n t w ith h is la t e r a c tio n in th e conv e n tio n. These advocate an in c re a s e o f power in th e n a tio n a l government*, though la t e r in th e co n ve n tio n Randolph re fu s e d to s ig n th e c o n s t it u t io n, fe e lin g th a t th e r e s t r a in t s on th e powers o f th e s ta te s were to o g re a t. T h is l a t t e r a c tio n l e f t him fre e to a c t as he saw f i t when th e c o n s t it u t io n should come b e fo re h is s ta te f o r a d o p tio n. When th e tim e came, he saw th a t a r e je c t io n o f th e cons t i t u t i o n would mean d is u n io n, and he used a l l h is powers in th e V ir g in ia r a t if y in g c o n v e n tio n in defence o f r a t i f i c a t i o n. George Mason ranked t h ir d as a prophet in th e c o n v e n tio n w ith seventeen p re d ic tio n s to h is c r e d it. A l l o f these are c h a ra c te r i s t i c o f h is v ie w s. He b e lie v e d s la v e ry to be a menace to th e c o u n try and was w illin g to g iv e Congress th e power to p r o h ib it th e tra d e. He p e rc e iv e d th e r a p id it y w ith w h ich s la v e ry w ould in c re a s e, and was not d e ceived,a s were o th e rs in th e c o n v e n tio n, in to b e lie v in g i t would d ie out o f i t s e l f (p ). v is io n, was h is narrow vie w o f th e w est. I n c o n tra s t to t h i s broad He wished " i f i t were p o s s ib le, by ju s t means to p re ve n t e m ig ra tio n to th e w e ste rn c o u n try " (p.2 9 5}-300;49 5 ). M r. Mason a ls o l e f t th e c o n v e n tio n w ith o u t s ig n in g th e c o n s t it u t io n and h is p r e d ic tio n s (p ) a re c o n s is te n t w ith t h is f a c t. Seven o f h is p re d ic tio n s have been e n t ir e ly o r p a r t i a l l y f u l f i l l e d. Hugh W illia m s o n, W illia m R ichardson D a v id, and R ichard Dobbs S p a ig h t, re p re se n te d ITorth C a ro lin a w ith fo u rte e n p r e d ic tio n s. Hugh W illia m s o n made f iv e p r e d ic tio n s w ith re fe re n c e to th e e le c tio n

24 18 o f th e e x e c u tiv e, w hich emphasize h is o p p o s itio n to the proposed system. He b e lie v e d " i t was p r e t ty c e r ta in th a t we should a t some tim e or o th e r have a k in g ; hut he wished no p re c a u tio n to he o m itte d th a t m ight postpone th e event as lo n g a3 possible,? H is p re d ic tio n s are tin g e d w ith lo c a l p re ju d ic e s such as th e south f e l t tow ard th e n o rth (p. 359;490)-; and show th a t h o s t ile a t t it u d e tow ard th e gro w th o f th e west w hich was so p re v a le n t among th e members o f th e C onvention (p ;2 5 0 ). Two o f Mr. W illia m s o n s p re d ic tio n s have been p a r t i a l l y f u l f i l l e d. W illia m P ie rc e s a id o f W illia m R. D a vie, "He was s ile n t in th e c o n v e n tio n, b u t h is o p in io n was always re s p e c te d ".'^ T h is may account f o r th e fa c t t h a t we o n ly have two p re d ic tio n s, b o th o f w hich have not been v e r if ie d. R ich a rd S paight made one p re d ic t io n. T h is savored o f s e c tio n a l f e e lin g, th e south a g a in s t th e n o rth. I t was not f u l f i l l e d. South C a ro lin a fu rn is h e d fo u r p ro p h e ts f o r th e co n v e n tio n, C harles P in ckney, C harles C ctesw orth P in ckney, John R u tle d g e, and P ie rc e B u tle r. C harles P inckney made t h ir t e e n p r e d ic tio n s, th re e o f w hich have been f u l f i l l e d. Most o f h is p re d ic tio n s advoca te a s tro n g s e n a to r ia l b ra nch. T h is was n a tu ra l s in c e he re p re se n te d th a t group o f s ta te s who w ished 4he s ta te s t o be s o v e re ig n. W illia m P ie rc e s a id o f Mr. P in ckney, "He i s, a lth o u g h o n ly tw e n ty - fo u r y e a rs ;/o f age, in p o ssessio n o f a g re a t v a r ie ty o f knowledge. Government, la w, h is to r y, and p h ilo s o p h y are h is f a v o r it e s tu d ie s, # M r. P ie rc e was in e r r o r. C harles ^ in c k n e y was tw e n ty -n in e years o f age.

25 19 "but he is in tim a te ly a cq u a in te d w ith every specie s o f p o lit e le a r n er in g, and has a s p i r i t o f a p p lic a tio n and in d u s try "beyond a l l men. nlf The p re d ic tio n s o f C harles C otesw orth P in ckney, s ix in number, are c o n s is te n t w ith th e p r in c ip le s he t r ie d t o s u p p o rt. He, li k e C harles P in ckney, had come in to th e co n v e n tio n w ith a d e s ire to have a c o n s titu tio n formed r e ta in in g the power o f th e s ta te s (p ). He "believed th a t Congress should have no power to c o n tr o l th e s la v e tra d e, "but th a t t h is was a m a tte r f o r each s ta te to d e cid e (p ). I t is no s m a ll honor to him th a t he y ie ld e d h is p re ju d ic e s, and agreed to compromise in o rd e r t h a t a u n io n m ight "be formed w hich would in c lu d e a l l o f th e s ta te s. Two o f h is p re d ic tio n s have been f u l f i l l e d. John R utledge re p re se n te d th e south e rn p la n te r in h is p r e d ic t io n fa v o rin g w e a lth as an e s tim a te by w hich re p re s e n ta tio n should be a p p o rtio n e d (p ); and in h is defense o f s la v e ry (p ). One o f h is seven p re d ic tio n s has been f u l f i l l e d. P ie rc e B u tle r a ls o made b u t one p r e d ic tio n w hich can be v e r i f ie d. T h is is not due to th e f a c t th a t "as a p o l i t i c i a n or an o r a to r, he has no p re te n tio n s to e ith e r " j ^ u t to th e fa c t th a t h is p r e d ic tio n s re la te d to c c n d itio n s fo r w h ich th e c o n s t it u t io n made no p ro v is io n. ^F e rra n d, Max, Records o f th e F e d e ra l C o n v e n tio n,v o l.ill,p.9 6. F e rra n d, Max, Records o f th e F e d e ra l C o n v e n t io n, V o l.ill,p. 97.

26 20 Abraham B a ld w in, o f G eorgia, though " w e ll a cq u a in te d w ith 41 hooks and c h a ra c te rs " /'made h u t one p r e d ic tio n. T h is was o f a g e n e ra l n a tu re, prophesying an in c re a s in g "in te rc o u rs e among the people o f th e s ta te s ", and hence has been f u l f i l l e d. As we re vie w the l i s t o f men who made p re d ic tio n s in the c o n v e n tio n, we f in d th a t Gouverneur M o rris made th e g re a te s t number. He had t h i r t y to h is c r e d it. James M adison, o f V ir g in ia, came second w ith tw e n ty -fo u r; George Mason, o f th e same s ta te, t h i r d, w ith seventeen; and E lh rid g e G e rry, o f M assachusetts, fo u r th, w ith f if t e e n p r e d ic tio n s. I t is a s ig n if ic a n t fa c t th a t the f iv e men who h e ld the fo u r h ig h e s t pla ce s as s u c c e s s fu l p ro phets ( th a t i s, who made th e h ig h e s t number o f p re d ic tio n s w h ich can be v e r if ie d ) were th e le a d e rs in th e fra m in g o f th e c o n s titu tio n. I t w i l l be w o rth w h ile to n o tic e th e most im p o rta n t s e rv ic e o f these men. A lexander H a m ilto n ranks f i r s t, w ith f iv e o f h is e ig h t p re d ic tio n s f u l f i l l e d. H a m ilto n s r e la t io n to th e c o n s t it u t io n was le s s d ir e c t than th a t o f th e o th e r fo u r men s in c e much o f h is im p o rta n t work had been accom plished b e fo re th e c o n v e n tio n m et. T h is work began in 1780 when he had drawn up an o u t l i ne o f a n a tio n a l government s tro n g ly re se m b lin g the one f i n a l l y e s ta b lis h e d, and co n tin u e d th ro u g h h is s e rv ic e in Congress where he had so a d m ira b ly s e t f o r t h p la n s f o r th e revenue, com m ercial power, and th e r a t io o f c o n tr ib u tio n. He d id much to b rin g about th e c o n v e n tio n a t A n n a p o lis, and th e n th e d e c is iv e one o f James M adison stood second w ith fo u rte e n o f h is tw e n ty -fo u r p re d ic tio n s f u l f i l l e d. Since M adison is known as th e "F a th e r o f th e C o n s titu tio n ", i t may be assumed t h a t he h e ld th e la r g e s t

27 21 p la c e in th e c o n v e n tio n. George T ic k n o r C u rtis co n sid e rs th a t h is g re a te s t s e rv ic e c o n s is te d in th e answers he made to th e obje c tio n s o f those who b e lie v e d th e assembly d id not have th e power to propose and frame a new c o n s titu tio n.''" Since f iv e o f Benjam in P r a n k lin s n ine p re d ic tio n s w e re ffu l- f i l l e d, he stands t h ir d as a s u c c e s s fu l p ro p h e t. I t is fo r h is in flu e n c e ra th e r th a n f o r what he s a id th a t he is t o be remembered in th e conventio n. H is g re a t age, h is long p e rio d o f p u b lic s e r v ic e, and h is eminence as a p h ilo s o p h e r, p h ila n th r o p is t, and t h in k e r made him b e lo ved, re ve renced, and re s p e c te d. He used h is i n flu e n c e to c o o l th e heat o f debate, check d is c u s s io n s w h ich te n d ed to r e s u lt in permanent d iffe re n c e s, and appeal f o r u n a n im ity o f a c tio n to save th e u n io n. James W ilso n and Gouverneur M o rris t ie d f o r fo u r th p la c e, each having had h a lf o f h is p re d ic tio n s f u l f i l l e d. Mr. V /ilso n must be g iv e n c r e d it f o r th e fa c t th a t in th e new government th e people came to be re p re s e n te d in th e r a t io o f t h e ir numbers in s te a d o f by s ta te s. He used h is in flu e n c e and e f f o r t s to e lu c id a te and emphas iz e h is o p in io n th a t when th e s ta te s had become independent o f Great B r it a in th e y had become so in t h e i r fe d e ra te d c h a ra c te r and not as in d iv id u a l com m unities, and th a t th e A r t ic le s o f C onfederat io n had been a v io la t io n o f th a t p r in c ip le. Mr. M o rris a tte n d e d th e whole se ssio n o f th e c o n v e n tio n w ith th e e x c e p tio n o f a few days in June. D u rin g a l l t h i s tim e he put f o r t h every e f f o r t t o c o n c ilia te th e d if f e r in g d e le g a te s, e x q lt n a tio n a lis m, and d e fe a t s ta te je a lo u s ie s. I n s p ite o f h is e x c e lle n t work i n tn e se lin e s, # C u r tis, CL. T., C o n s titu tio n a l H is to r y, V o l. I, P. 288.

28 22 he is c h ie f ly to he remembered, as th e a u th o r o f th e te x t o f the c o n s titu tio n. I t was he who drew i t up in i t s f i n a l form and gave i t th a t cle a rn e ss and freedom from o b s c u rity w hich have lessened th e d i f f i c u l t i e s o f in t e r p r e t a t io n o f la t e r days. I t is not stra n g e t h a t these f iv e men s h o u ld be th e ones most a b le to p r e d ic t the fu tu r e o f t h e ir c o u n try. They were the men most fre e from lo c a l p re ju d ic e s and s ta te je a lo u s ie s, and most eager f o r a s tro n g, n a tio n a l government prom ulgated by th e people as th e so v e re ig n power. Since th e r e a liz a t io n o f t h is has been th e tendency and course o f government and law s in ce th e conventio n, n a t u r a lly those who lo cked to w a rd t h is as t h e ir id e a l would be th e most s u c c e s s fu l p ro p h e ts. These were th e men to o who best re a liz e d th e weaknesses o f th e c o n fe d e ra tio n. They bad s tru g g le d to bra ce i t s t o t t e r in g form u n t i l th e people should r e a liz e th a t i t never could stand a lo n e. They were a lso th e men who had been th e most in f l u e n t ia l in o rg a n iz in g th e c o n v e n tio n, and had come to i t w ith a s to c k o f knowledge r e la t in g to a l l p re v io u s e f f o r t s in a n c ie n t and modern tim e s to e s ta b lis h fre e in s t it u t io n s o f governm ent. Prom these fo rm e r experim ents th e y were prepared to deduct c o n c lu s io n s a p p lic a b le to s im ila r c o n d itio n s in Am erica.

29 23 Chap. I I I. P o s s ib le C la s s ific a tio n s o f th e P re d ic tio n s. Since th e de le g a te s in th e c o n v e n tio n sp e cu la te d upon a l l s u b je c ts, th e problem as to th e method o f c la s s ify in g th e p r e d ic t io n s i n o rd e r t h a t th e y may have th e g re a te s t s ig n ific a n c e, p re se n ts i t s e l f. As one reads th ro u g h th e jo u r n a l o f th e co n v e n tio n, at le a s t seven methods o f c la s s if ic a t io n suggest th e m selve s, w hich may be grouped under th re e g e n e ra l heads. There may be methods o f c la s s if ic a t io n a cco rd in g to th e s ta te s from w hich th e a u th o rs o f th e p re d ic tio n s came; second, a method determ ined by th e opin io n s o f th e a u th o rs o f th e p r e d ic tio n s, and, t h i r d, methods w hich are determ ined by th e p re d ic tio n s th e m selve s. A l l o f th e s ta te s except Rhode Is la n d 3ent d e le g a te s to th e c o n v e n tio n. Since th e s ta te s had been so v e re ig n under th e A r t ic le s o f C o n fe d e ra tio n, th e d e le g a te s, f o r th e most p a r t, had come t o th e c o n v e n tio n, fe e lin g i t t h e ir d u ty to defend th e in te r e s ts o f th e p a r t ic u la r s ta te w hich th e y re p re s e n te d. ITc sooner had th e debate commenced th a n th e c o n v e n tio n proved to be d iv id e d in t o p a r tie s, and each p a rty th re a te n e d and p re d ic te d as t o what would happen should th e opposing fa c tio n g e t the power in to i t s hands. There were th e com m ercial s ta te s opposing th e a g r ic u lt u r a l s ta te s ; th e s m a ll s ta te s a g a in s t th e la rg e s ta te s ; and th e s la v e -h o ld in g s ta te s s la ve a g a in s t th e n o n /h o ld in g s ta te s. Prom each o f these groups were c h a r a c te r is tic p r e d ic tio n s.

30 24 The p re d ic tio n s from th e com m ercial s ta te s came from New E ngland, New Y o rk, and M aryland, who w ished to g iv e Congress la rg e powers over commerce; those from th e a g r ic u lt u r a l s ta te s were made hy d e le g a te s from P e n n sylvania, V ir g in ia, N o rth C a ro lin a, South C a ro lin a, and G eorgia, who w ished th e s ta te s to have some r e g u la tio n over commerce. The fo llo w in g p re d ic tio n s w i l l c h a ra c t e riz e these groups, O liv e r E lls w o r th,o f C o n n e c tic u t, s a id, "The power o f re g u la tin g tra d e between th e s ta te s w i l l p ro te c t them a g a in s t each o th e r. Should t h is not he th e case, th e a tte m p ts o f one to ta x th e produce o f a n o th e r passing th ro u g h i t s hands, w i l l fo rc e a d ir e c t e x p I o n and d e fe a t th e m s e lv e s ", (p ). Hugh W illia m s o n, o f N o rth C a ro lin a, s a id, " I f a m a jo r ity o f th e n o rth e rn s ta te s should push t h e ir re g u la tio n s to o f a r, th e s o u th e rn s ta te s would b u ild s h ip s f o r th e m selve s", (p ). The o p p o s itio n between the s m a ll and la rg e s ta te s was s t i l l more b i t t e r th a n th a t between th e tr a d in g and a g r ic u lt u r a l s ta te s. The form er w ished a re p re s e n ta tio n b -se d upon s ta te s, w h ile th e l a t t e r d e s ire d th a t i t be based upon p o p u la tio n. A c la s s if ic a t io n o f th e p re d ic tio n s based upon th e fa c tio n s would p la c e th o s e o f th e d e le g a te s from C o n n e c tic u t, New J e rs e y, New Ham pshire, M aryland, and Delaware in one group; and th o se fro m New Y o rk, M assachusetts, P e n n s y lv a n ia, South C a ro lin a, N o rth C a ro lin a, and G eorgia in th e o th e r. The fo llo w in g p r e d ic tio n made by W illia m P a tte rs o n o f New Jerse y is c h a r a c te r is tic o f th e f i r s t g ro up. "G ive th e la rg e s ta te s an in flu e n c e in p ro p o rtio n to t h e ir m agnitude, and what be th e consequence? T h e ir a m b itio n w i l l be p r o p o r tio n a lly in c re a s e d, and th e s m a ll s ta te s w i l l have e v e r y th in g ".( p.176) James M adison s