Study on Economic Feasibility Evaluation for Railway's Risk Control

Transcription

1 JOURNAL OF RAILWAY ENGINEERING SOCIETY Jan 213 NO. 1Ser ( 清华大学, 北京 184) U A Sudy on Economic Feasibiliy Evaluaion for Railway's Risk Conrol SHI JingLI Xi - lintan Jin - hua Tsinghua UniversiyBeijing 184China AbsracResearch purposesthe railways in China are affeced by naural disasers seriously. Thus i is necessary o do he disaser prevenion engineering in order o preven he naural disasers and reduce he risk of railway. I is also necessary o evaluae he economic feasibiliy for he decision - making of he disaser prevenion engineering. Research conclusionsthe discreizaion of probabiliy funcion varying wih ime and relaing o seasonal disaser o he railway is conduced wih he probabiliy heory o consider he seasonaliy in he economic evaluaion of he various seasonal disaser prevenion engineerings. The resul shows ha he raio of he ne presen value and benefi - cos is more realisic on consideraion of he seasonal facor. Therefore considering he seasonal facor is beer han assuming he uniform occurrence of disasersand is calculaion resul for evaluaing he economic feasibiliy of railway's seasonal disaser prevenion engineering is more scienific. Key wordsrailwayriskdisaser prevenion engineeringeconomyevaluaion

2 1 121 F Δ pk = = exp- λ λ λ = RΔ T Δ n T pt = = Rexp- Rd 1 1 F= 1 - exp- Rd 2 1 R 1a T 1 ' T 2 ' T 3 ' T 1 T 2 T 1 R 2 T 2 X 1b X 1 R= 1 - αr + αr N 3 X 2 T 1 T 1 X' T 1 2 R R X X' α X 1 X 2 α 1 α. 5 N R 3 i p i x i i r n n pn Y = Y' = A B 1 A = n exp- rix i pn B = 1 - exp- rn pn R T 4

3 n pn= p n n p i Fn= 1 - n 1 - p i p i i R p i R S = S' = D B 5 D = L exp- rn pn B = 1 - exp- rn pn 4 R { R= 1 - αr + αr N + i - 1 s e + i N 8 R α N s e 1 N = - ln e - s e + s - 1αR e - s R α R i 12 R R i R i = 1 - αr + αr N s + i αr N s + i - 1 e + i - 1 i p - exp- e - s R i d e - s R i d = e - s {[ ] } [ ] e - s αr + αr N s + i αr N d = 1 - αr + αr N s + i - 1 αr 2N e - s 2 = 1 - αr e - s + e - s e + s - 2 αr 2N + e - s αr N i 11 F R i =. 2i N 2 R r = ln /12-5/12 8/12 +5/ N = - 8/12-5/ = i - 1

4 i i 1 p i n p n 1 i p i pn i p i pn A = 1 2 n exp-. 1ipn= 41 B = exp-. 1n pn= Y = A B + 5 = = D = 1 2 exp-. 1npn= 516 B = exp-. 1n pn= S = D B = 516 = [ ] p - exp = D' = 1 2 exp-. 1npn= 63 B' = exp-. 1n pn= S' = D' B' = 63 = NPV = S' - S - Y = = 9. 8 B /C = / = J. Luo Yun Chen Longgui Lu Yushi ec. The Analysis of Value and Efficiency Concerning Prevening Projec of Disasers J. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Conrol J Wang HaiziShen Rongfang. General Mehods of Economic Rresuls Evaluaion in Disaser Resisan Engineering Invesmen J. Journal of Naural Disasers J Wang HaiziShen Rongfang. Dynamic Evaluaion of Economic Resuls of Disaser Resisan Engineering Invesmen J. Journal of Tongji Universiy J Zhang YuxinXing JunyiGao Wei. Approach of he Macro Precauion on Railway Naural Disaser J. Journal of Beijing Jiaoong Universiy D. 26. Fu Longhai. Research on Lighning Proecion and Grounding Technique in Qinghai - Tibe Railway Transmission Line and Subsaion D. Chengdu Souhwes Jiaoong Universiy D.

5 Yu Ping. The Analysis of Traffic Accidens and Sudies on Railway Transporaion Measures D. Chengdu Souhwes Jiaoong Universiy D J Li Xiaohui. Geological Hazard Risk Assessmen of Bao - Cheng Railway in Fengxian Counry D. Beijing China Universiy of Geosciences Journal of Railway Engineering Sociey D. 23. Zhang Zhiqiao. The Sudies on he Risk of Railway Transporaion Disaser and Forewarning Managemen SysemD. Wuhan Wuhan Universiy of Technology 23. Huang JianlingYang Dingying. Research on he Analysis Mehod for Economic Benefi of Proecion Engineering for Geological Disasers along RailwayJ. 13. 檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨檨 ( 上接第 65 页 ) m 6 7 m 8% m 3 / m 3 1. / Z. Ⅳ Ⅴ 9% China Railway Second Survey and Design Insiue Group Ld. Tonghai Tunnel Design FigureTonghai now Xiushan Tunnel of New Kunming ~ Hekou 2 Railway Line Z. Chengdu China Railway Second 2 Survey and Design Insiue Group Ld 26. 2TB TB Code for Consrucion on Tunnel of /m 1 ~ ~ 9 6 ~ / Railway 3TB TB 13 25Code for Design on Tunnel of Railway 4. J. 2 21S 1-4. Yang RenchunLi Shujing. Research on Geological Drilling Technology for Xiushan TunnelJ. Journal of Railway Engineering Sociey21S 1-4.