ESSENCE ( ) Welcome!

Transcription

1 ESSENCE ( ) Welcome!

2 Meeting overview Management (Henk/Wilco, ) Data analysis and visualization projects PR policy Status (Andreas, ) Runs Data processing and tools First results standard runs (Andreas et al., ) Break ( ) Project overview (5 min per project, ) Planning (Henk/Wilco, )

3 Projects DEISA ESSENCE (170,000 CPU h, NEC-SX8) Visualization tools for the ESSENCE project (NCF) SG : 10,000 CPU h ASTER CAVE : 320 uur visualization ondersteuning NRG : E 15,000 data analysis ondersteuning Enlighten Your Research (with SARA, submitted to SURF)

4 Tiled Panel Display Usef u l f or d iscov ery Visu a liz a tion m eetin g : 1meeting, a t SA RA (in p u t bef ore 5 / 1 2 to A n d rea s) ESSENCE

5 PR policy Publication Overview paper (Sterl et. al., 2007) Manuscript OK Nature/Science papers with project leaders Acknowledgement Press CKO (KNMI/IMAU) project Harry Geurts Presentation SARA/NCF (May 2007) Data sharing Within approved project with NL first author

6 ESSENCE - tussenstand voortgang integraties toegang /organisatie / bewerking data visualisatie SARA projecten en eerste resultaten (bijdrage van iedereen) / w w w.knm i.nl/ ~ s te rl/ Es s e nce

7 Voortgang integraties r u n n in g

8 Vertragingen door bottleneck postproces. projekt einde: 1 januari 2007 HOSING 2: op schema (voor kerst klaar) run037: op schema (dit jaar klaar) SOIL: gestart op 30 november 150 jaar = minimaal 25 dagen => wordt krap 5 x 100 jaar: nog ruimte

9 DATA

10 Bewerking data op SARA: alleen eenvoudig (budget) Datatransfer vs. rekentijd cdo pakket: /home/essence/bin/cdo ( ftware/cdo) ATM: regular grid (192 x 96) OCE: curvilinear => interpolation vektor: eerst draaien, dan interpoleren

11 Visualisatie SARA 12 december s middags TPD: effectief een groot scherm vele plaatjes naast/onder elkaar (20 x 40) scroll- en zoombaar => snel overblik over alle runs/lagen of meerdere grootheden naast elkaar tot nu 2 voorstellen

12 tre n d t_s u rf

13 tre n d- tre n d_av e, t_s u rf

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15 He nk v an de n Brink Ex trem e: Ex trem e weather events and their change in a changing clim ate

16 Questions: 1. What are the 100 year and 1,000- year return values, respectively, of these quantities? 2. How do these values com pare to values estim ated form available observations? 3. How do the ex treme values change in a future climate? 4. Is there a second population in the ex trem es of these quantities that only shows up ina large data set?

17 1 5 W,3 6 N

18 Liank e te r Raa Project ENSO/ THC Goal: investigate effect variations in strength of THC on ENSO: period, am plitude, pattern - m ean state of equatorial Pacific - seasonal cycle - couplings/ feedbacks Essence data: - ocean t em perat ure (T, therm ocline dept h) - surface wind st ress - SLP - vertical velocity (MOC) ESSENCE m eet in g,

19 Project group m em bers: Lianke te Raa (project leader), Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip, Henk Dijkst ra, possibly colloboration with MPI (Johann Jungclaus) and/ or Ax el Tim m erm ann Tim e schedule (??): Dec- Feb: dat a t ransfer, first analysis Mar- May: discussion first result s June- August : further analysis, draft paper Sept: subm ission paper ESSENCE m eet in g,

20 Storm track changes Rein Haarsm a, Frank Selt en, Henk vd Brink Position: - Poleward shift? Related t o changes in NAO? - Im pact for t he Net herlands: Change in dom inant wind direct ion? Change in windspeed? Intensity: - How do t he PDF changes? - Change in frequency of int ense storm s? Essence 1 dec 2006

21 Data and time schedule Dat a Daily m ean data: surface wind, slp, rain, u500, v500 Monthly m ean data: slp, gh500 Tim e schedule Start analyzes: January 2007 Main results: Medio 2007 Publication: Before end 2007 Essence 1 dec 2006

22 Bart v / d Hu rk How to measure land- atmosphere coupling? Com pare two m ulti- year sim ulations: One norm al ( coupled ) sim ulation soil water precipitation One uncoupled sim ulation with fix ed land cond s See what is t he effect on variability of T, P Symposium in honour of Gerbrand Komen 19 Oct 2006

23 Contribution of landatmosphere coupling Change in interannual variabilit y Temperature Precipitation Coupled Uncoupled Sen evi r at n e et al, 2006 Symposium in honour of Gerbrand Komen 19 Oct 2006

24 Plans in ESSENCE (2 exps) CLIMSOIL prescribe ensem ble m ean ( clim at ological ) daily soil/ snow fields t o m easure the im pact of soil m oisture anom alies on m eteorol.anom alies. Q: Can long blocking event s in Europe occur when t he soil is not ex cessively drying? (exp i s r u n n i n g n ow ) GLACE- FUT repeat Sonia s ensem ble ex perim ent for a full GCM with 6 m em bers, each using t he soil/ snow field from one reference m em ber. Q: are areas wit h st rong land- atm feedback indeed shift ing when clim ate is changing, also when also all degrees of freedom in t he at m.circulation are m aint ained (in cont rast t o Sonia s RCM ex p.)? Symposium in honour of Gerbrand Komen 19 Oct 2006

25 Michie l v / d Bro e k e ESSENCE and the polar regions 1) Changes in sea ice cover 2) Changes in ice sheet m ass balance UCU student bachelor research: 5 weeks in period January- May 2007

26 Sea Ice General How is recent sea ice decrease represent ed how are air/ sea t em perat ure increase and sea ice decrease relat ed, what is t he role of at m ospheric circulation (SAO/ SAM) in t he various scenario s? NH How well is recent sea ice decrease represent ed? If OK: tim ing of ice free sum m ers in Arct ic basin with upper/ lower lim it est im at es based on scenario s. SH How well is sea ice cover represented? If OK: threshold for decrease set t ing in with upper/ lower lim it est im ates based on scenario s

27 Ice sheet m ass balance General How does the clim ate change over t he large ice sheet s of Greenland and Ant arct ica? Greenland Due t o it s lim it ed size abd narrow ablation zone, Greenland is probably not well represent ed in t he m odel. It will be hard t o say som et hing about increased m elting Antarctica Should be bett er. Increased accum ulat ion increases m ass balance? When does increased m elt overtake increased snowfall in t he various scen ario s?

28 ESSENCE: HEAT EXPERIMENT Fem ke C. Vossepoel & Peter Jan van Leeuwen Methodology Objectives 120 ensem ble members assess sensitivity of ocean circulation to heat ex change period , starting from initial conditions STANDARD ensem ble mem ber obtain an estimate of spatial variations in heat transfer coefficient vary heat- transfer coefficient over ocean (c= , uniform distribution ) and compute 120 mean SSH fields eventually im prove formulation of coupling assimilate SSH (altim etric

29 Status, plans and open question Status 120 sim ulations have been perform ed ensemble variance largest in Southern Ocean observations ready for assim ilation Open question To what ex tent does model agree with the data (bias problem)? RMS SSH HEAT ensem ble (cm ) Plans assimilate Rio (05) mean dynamic topography based on altimetry and GRACE geoid apply local weighting evaluate resulting

30 Changes in skewness of Arctic Oscillation Frank Selten Rubén Pasm ant er Probability density funct ion of Arctic Oscillat ion is skewed Indications: t his skewness is sensit ive t o change Does it change wit h global warm ing? Does it change sm oot hly with tim e or abruptly? Do we underst and t hese changes? What are t he im plications of this for regional clim at es? Essence bijeenkomst

31 Changes in skewness of Arctic Oscillation Essence bijeenkomst

32 Changes in skewness of Arctic Oscillation Daily data of stream function at 200/ 500/ 800 hpa, tem perature, precipitation, SLP in winter Essence bijeenkomst

33 Atlantic Hosing project (1 ) W. Hazeleger, S.S. Drijfhout, H.A. Dijkstra, A. Sterl?,B. vd Hurk?,G. Lenderink? Goal: Assess im pact of strong reduction of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on European clim ate under clim ate change Motivation: Strong reduction of AMOC has occurred before (8.2kyr) in Holocene with strong im pact on Europe. Global warm ing m ay trigger collapse of AMOC through changes in the hydrological cycle. Im pact on European clim ate and ex trem es needs to be addressed. How: * ECHAM5/ OM1 with strong fresh water flux in the North Atlantic in an ensem ble of 5 m em bers from 2000 on (artificial spread of 1 Sv over a large part of the North Atlantic). * Analyse response (AMOC, tem perature, precipitation, circulation etc.) ESSENCE com pared to standard ensem blemeeting, * Possibly downscaling with RACMO to assess regional im pact.

34 Done before by Jacob et al, but not with clim ate change (ie increasing GHG) and not in ensem ble m ode: Drier and cooler clim ate over western Europe (m ore cold spells).

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37 Collapsed Atlantic MOCs for hosing runs (years )

38 Atlantic Hosing project (2 ) H.A. Dijkstra, S.S. Drijfhout, W. Hazeleger Goal: Assess response of AMOC to a realistic fresh water anom aly at different stages in the 21 st century Motivation: Under global warm ing the AMOC reduces in strength. Under reduced MOC, a stronger reduction due to freshening m ay be m ore likely. How: * ECHAM5/ OM1 with realistic strong fresh water flux in the North Atlantic (obtained from the control ensem ble) starting in 2000, 2020, 2040, 2060 and Status: Ongoing, first runs finished

39 Max im um annual fresh water anom aly

40 Trend in fresh water flux over the Atlantic

41 Why is Europe warm ing faster than the clim ate m odels indicate? Geert Jan, Aad, Andreas,...

42 plan Statistical analysis, apply VSM of van Ulden & van Oldenborgh to Europe: signal vs noise, circulation or other term s If not noise: physical analysis of the m ost im portant contributions. Usual suspects: aerosols, N- Atl SST, soil m oisture, radiation

43 First indications: JJA Accidental or system atic? Ex trem es or m ean?

44 Return values JJA De Bilt every 30 years