Clustering K-means. Clustering images. Machine Learning CSE546 Carlos Guestrin University of Washington. November 4, 2014.

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1 Clustering K-means Machine Learning CSE546 Carlos Guestrin University of Washington November 4, Clustering images Set of Images [Goldberger et al.] 2 1

2 K-means Randomly initialize k centers µ (0) = µ 1 (0),, µ k (0) Classify: Assign each point j {1, N} to nearest center: Recenter: µ i becomes centroid of its point: Equivalent to µ i average of its points! 3 Mixtures of Gaussians Machine Learning CSE546 Carlos Guestrin University of Washington November 4,

3 (One) bad case for k-means Clusters may overlap Some clusters may be wider than others 5 Density Estimation Estimate a density based on x 1,,x N 6 3

4 Density as Mixture of Gaussians Approximate density with a mixture of Gaussians Mixture of 3 Gaussians Contour Plot of Joint Density Gaussians in d Dimensions 1 P(x) = (2π ) m/2 Σ exp # 1 1/2 $ % 2 x µ ( ) T Σ 1 ( x µ ) & ' ( 8 4

5 Density as Mixture of Gaussians Approximate density with a mixture of Gaussians Mixture of 3 Gaussians p(x i,µ, ) = 9 Density as Mixture of Gaussians Approximate with density with a mixture of Gaussians Mixture of 3 Gaussians Our actual observations (b) C. Bishop, Carlos Guestrin Pattern Recognition & Machine Learning 10 5

6 Clustering our Observations Imagine we have an assignment of each x i to a Gaussian Our actual observations 1 (a) 1 (b) Complete data labeled by true cluster assignments C. Bishop, Carlos Guestrin Pattern Recognition & Machine Learning 11 Clustering our Observations Imagine we have an assignment of each x i to a Gaussian 1 (a) Introduce latent cluster indicator variable z i 0.5 Then we have p(x i z i,,µ, ) = Complete data labeled by true cluster assignments C. Bishop, Carlos Guestrin Pattern Recognition & Machine Learning 12 6

7 Clustering our Observations We must infer the cluster assignments from the observations (c) Posterior probabilities of assignments to each cluster *given* model parameters: r ik = p(z i = k x i,,µ, ) = Soft assignments to clusters C. Bishop, Carlos Guestrin Pattern Recognition & Machine Learning 13 Unsupervised Learning: not as hard as it looks Sometimes easy Sometimes impossible and sometimes in between 14 7

8 Summary of GMM Concept Estimate a density based on x 1,,x N KX p(x i, µ, ) = z in (x i µ z i, z i) z i =1 1 (a) Complete data labeled by true cluster assignments Surface Plot of Joint Density, Marginalizing Cluster Assignments 15 Summary of GMM Components Observations x i i 2 R d, i =1, 2,...,N Hidden cluster labels z i 2{1, 2,...,K}, i =1, 2,...,N Hidden mixture means µ k 2 R d, k =1, 2,...,K Hidden mixture covariances Hidden mixture probabilities k 2 R d d, k =1, 2,...,K KX k, k =1 k=1 Gaussian mixture marginal and conditional likelihood : KX p(x i, µ, ) = z i p(x i z i,µ, ) z i =1 p(x i z i,µ, ) =N (x i µ z i, z i) 16 8

9 Expectation Maximization Machine Learning CSE546 Carlos Guestrin University of Washington November 6, Next back to Density Estimation What if we want to do density estimation with multimodal or clumpy data? 18 9

10 But we don t see class labels!!! MLE: argmax i P(z i,x i ) But we don t know z i Maximize marginal likelihood: argmax i P(x i ) = argmax i k=1 K P(z i =k,x i ) 19 Special case: spherical Gaussians and hard assignments P(z i = k, x i 1 ) = (2π ) m/2 Σ k exp # 1 1/2 2 xi µ $ % k ( ) T Σ 1 k ( x i µ k ) & ' ( P(zi = k) If P(X z=k) is spherical, with same σ for all classes: # P(x i z i = k) exp 1 x i 2& µ $ % 2σ 2 k ' ( If each x i belongs to one class C(i) (hard assignment), marginal likelihood: N K N % P(x i, z i = k) exp 1 & ' 2σ 2 i=1 k=1 i=1 x i µ C(i) ( ) * 2 Same as K-means!!! 20 10

11 EM: Reducing Unsupervised Learning to Supervised Learning If we knew assignment of points to classes è Supervised Learning! Expectation-Maximization (EM) Guess assignment of points to classes In standard ( soft ) EM: each point associated with prob. of being in each class Recompute model parameters Iterate 21 Generic Mixture Models MoG Example: Observations: Parameters: Likelihood: Ex. z i = country of origin, x i = height of i th person k th mixture component = distribution of heights in country k 22 11

12 ML Estimate of Mixture Model Params Log likelihood L x ( ), log p({x i } ) = X i log X z i p(x i,z i ) Want ML estimate ˆ ML = Neither convex nor concave and local optima 23 If complete data were observed z i Assume class labels were observed in addition to L x,z ( ) = X log p(x i,z i ) i x i Compute ML estimates Separates over clusters k! Example: mixture of Gaussians (MoG) = { k,µ k, k } K k=

13 Iterative Algorithm Motivates a coordinate ascent-like algorithm: 1. Infer missing values z i given estimate of parameters ˆ 2. Optimize parameters to produce new ˆ given filled in data z i 3. Repeat Example: MoG (derivation soon ) 1. Infer responsibilities r ik = p(z i = k x i, ˆ (t 1) )= 2. Optimize parameters max w.r.t. k : max w.r.t. µ k, k : 25 E.M. Convergence EM is coordinate ascent on an interesting potential function Coord. ascent for bounded pot. func. è convergence to a local optimum guaranteed This algorithm is REALLY USED. And in high dimensional state spaces, too. E.G. Vector Quantization for Speech Data 26 13

14 Gaussian Mixture Example: Start 27 After first iteration 28 14

15 After 2nd iteration 29 After 3rd iteration 30 15

16 After 4th iteration 31 After 5th iteration 32 16

17 After 6th iteration 33 After 20th iteration 34 17

18 Some Bio Assay data 35 GMM clustering of the assay data 36 18

19 Resulting Density Estimator 37 E.M.: The General Case E.M. widely used beyond mixtures of Gaussians The recipe is the same Expectation Step: Fill in missing data, given current values of parameters, θ (t) If variable y is missing (could be many variables) Compute, for each data point x j, for each value i of y: P(y=i x j,θ (t) ) Maximization step: Find maximum likelihood parameters for (weighted) completed data : For each data point x j, create k weighted data points Set θ (t+1) as the maximum likelihood parameter estimate for this weighted data Repeat Carlos Guestrin

20 Initialization In mixture model case where y i = {z i,x i } there are many ways to initialize the EM algorithm Examples: Choose K observations at random to define each cluster. Assign other observations to the nearest centriod to form initial parameter estimates Pick the centers sequentially to provide good coverage of data Grow mixture model by splitting (and sometimes removing) clusters until K clusters are formed Can be quite important to quality of solution in practice 39 What you should know K-means for clustering: algorithm converges because it s coordinate ascent EM for mixture of Gaussians: How to learn maximum likelihood parameters (locally max. like.) in the case of unlabeled data Remember, E.M. can get stuck in local minima, and empirically it DOES EM is coordinate ascent 40 20

21 Expectation Maximization (EM) Setup More broadly applicable than just to mixture models considered so far Model: x y observable incomplete data not (fully) observable complete data parameters Interested in maximizing (wrt ): p(x ) = X y p(x, y ) Special case: x = g(y) 41 Expectation Maximization (EM) Derivation Step 1 Rewrite desired likelihood in terms of complete data terms p(y ) =p(y x, )p(x ) Step 2 Assume estimate of parameters Take expectation with respect to ˆ p(y x, ˆ ) 42 21

22 Expectation Maximization (EM) Derivation Step 3 Consider log likelihood of data at any L x ( ) L x (ˆ ) relative to log likelihood at ˆ Aside: Gibbs Inequality Proof: E p [log p(x)] E p [log q(x)] 43 Expectation Maximization (EM) Derivation L x ( ) L x (ˆ ) =[U(, ˆ ) U(ˆ, ˆ )] [V (, ˆ ) V (ˆ, ˆ )] Step 4 Determine conditions under which log likelihood at exceeds that at Using Gibbs inequality: ˆ If Then L x ( ) L x (ˆ ) 44 22

23 Motivates EM Algorithm Initial guess: Estimate at iteration t: E-Step Compute M-Step Compute 45 Example Mixture Models E-Step Compute M-Step Compute U(, ˆ (t) )=E[log p(y ) x, ˆ (t) ] ˆ (t+1) = arg max U(, ˆ (t) ) Consider y i = {z i,x i } i.i.d. p(x i,z i ) = z ip(x i E qt [log p(y )] = X z i)= E qt [log p(x i,z i )] = i 46 23

24 Coordinate Ascent Behavior Bound log likelihood: L x ( ) = U(, ˆ (t) )+V(, ˆ (t) ) L x (ˆ (t) )= U(ˆ (t), ˆ (t) )+V (ˆ (t), ˆ (t) ) Figure from KM textbook 47 Comments on EM Since Gibbs inequality is satisfied with equality only if p=q, any step that changes should strictly increase likelihood In practice, can replace the M-Step with increasing U instead of maximizing it (Generalized EM) Under certain conditions (e.g., in exponential family), can show that EM converges to a stationary point of L x ( ) Often there is a natural choice for y has physical meaning If you want to choose any y, not necessarily x=g(y), replace p(y ) in U with p(y, x ) 48 24

25 Initialization In mixture model case where y i = {z i,x i } there are many ways to initialize the EM algorithm Examples: Choose K observations at random to define each cluster. Assign other observations to the nearest centriod to form initial parameter estimates Pick the centers sequentially to provide good coverage of data Grow mixture model by splitting (and sometimes removing) clusters until K clusters are formed Can be quite important to convergence rates in practice 49 What you should know K-means for clustering: algorithm converges because it s coordinate ascent EM for mixture of Gaussians: How to learn maximum likelihood parameters (locally max. like.) in the case of unlabeled data Be happy with this kind of probabilistic analysis Remember, E.M. can get stuck in local minima, and empirically it DOES EM is coordinate ascent 50 25