Natural Hazards Mitigation in Iceland

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1 Natural Hazards Mitigation in Iceland With special emphasis on earthquake risk Júlíus Sólnes Professor of civil and environmental engineering Dept. of engineering, University of Iceland Cambridge, 19th February 2003

2 Iceland and the Mid Atlantic ridge North American Plate Euro-Asian Plate The Reykjanes ridge and Kolbeinseyjar ridge north of Iceland form a part of the North American and Euro- Asian plate boundary with high tectonic activity in the form of earthquakes, continental drift, rifting episodes and volcanism. Crossing Iceland, an interesting anomaly in the tectonic activity is evident due to double shifting of the plate boundary. A kind of shear plug is formed.

3 Natural Hazards in Iceland P Volcanism < Lava flows, downpour of tephra and poisonous gases during eruptions. Many active volcanos P Tectonic movements-continental drift < Rifting episodes with rupturing of ground and consequent damage to manmade structures < Tectonic earthquakes mainly in two zones, the South and North Iceland Seismic Zones P Heavy storms with extremely high wind speeds P Storm surge floods at the coast P Flooding of major rivers during rapid thaw episodes during winter P Landslides and snow avalanches

4 The volcanic hazard Interaction between volcanic and tectonic activity Reykjavík and vicinity

5 The Volcanic Hazard Zones of recent and past volcanic activity

6 The Vestmannaeyjar Eruption 23. January 1973

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10 Flooding Flooding is often associated with subglacial eruptions

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13 Snow avalanches in Iceland From T. Jóhannesson & Th. Arnalds, Jökull 2001

14 Losses and mitigation Snow avalanches and landslides P Six people reported dead in an avalanche in 1118 P In the 20 century, 193 people were killed in snow avalanches and landslides. In 1995 alone, 34 people were killed in snow avalanches in two small villages in the North West with great economic loss as well P A large scale programme of mitigation has been started by the government < The Meteorological Bureau entrusted with drawing of avalanche risk maps < Construction of diversion embankments, Alpine type snow avalanche defenses put up in many places < Condemnation and expropriation of extremely vulnerable houses

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19 The need for seismic zoning P Adoption of the EUROCODE s in Iceland, EUROCODE 8 -the earthquake resistant design provisions- in particular, requires the preparation of a National Application Document (NAD), i.e. seismic zoning of the entire country P The Reykjavík area is the most densely populated region in Iceland with over 80% of the building mass. A special zoning for Reykjavík is therefore desirable P Reykjavík is close to two seismic regions with active earthquake sources, namely < The South Iceland Seismic Zone, 40 km to the SE < The Reykjanes Peninsula Seismic Zone 20 km to the SW

20 Main Seismogenic Zones The North Iceland and South Iceland Seismic Zones The North America Plate The Eurasian Plate

21 Earthquakes in Iceland Earthquakes in Iceland with surface wave magnitudes M s >4, adapted from Ambraseys & Sigbjörnsson Largest earthquakes, M.7-7,2

22 The south Iceland and Reykjanes seismic zones Reykjavík and vicinity Volcanic Fissure Swarms Seismic lineation Destruction Zones of Historical Earthquakes

23 The South Iceland Earthquakes of 17 th and 21 st June 2000 P On Saturday 17 th of June, the National Day of Iceland, a 6.6 magnitude occurred in the eastern part of the South Iceland Seismic Zone < Considerable damage to houses and civil engineering structures was registered < Fortunately, only minor injuries and no casualtiers were registered P On Wednesday 21st of June a second large earthquake of magnitude 6.5 occurred about 15 km to the west in the zone causing widespread destruction

24 Surface faulting in the earthquakes The red broken line depicts the 0.25g iso-acceleration lines Reykjavik Búrfellsvirkjun Hveragerði Selfoss Hella (c) Hvolsvöllur 50 km Vestmannaeyjar

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28 Fortunately the earthquake risk zone is sparsely populated with a few small villages and mostly farmlands Nevertheless, the economic losses were considerable Iceland has an automatic natural hazards insurance, which is connected to the compulsory fire insurance of all properties

29 Seismic Risk Zoning P Attenuation models for earthquake accelerations have been refined after the 2000 earthquakes P Generation of future earthquake events based on the Klondike model (Solnes, 97) in order to augment and extend existing earthquake catalogues P Expected peak ground accelerations have been calculated for the whole country and the Reykjavík area P Seismic zoning maps for the country and a more detailed map for the Reykjavík area with links to the Reykjavík Geographic Information System, containing expected attributes, are being produced

30 Attenuation of surface acceleration Measured peak accelerations during the 2000 earthquakes log( a peak ) = log pϑ 234. ( 16/ 7) σ R C 2 ( 2/ 3) ( 2/ 3) θϕ p + ( 32 / ) (1/ 2) 0 π β ρ κ d 2 1 Ψ 1 log + log( M ) log( R ) 2 T DISTANCE (km) p a so-called peak factor, h a site dependent magnification factor, )F the stress drop, R 2n the radiation pattern, C p a reduction factor accounting for partitioning of the motion into two horizontal components, $ the shear wave velocity, D the density of the fracturing rock, 6 the spectral attenuation, Q a normalised spreading value of the waves, T d the duration of the motion, M 0 the seismic moment of the earthquake, R the geometrical spreading function

31 Historical and Extended Earthquake Catalogues Reasonably Accurate Earthquake Catalogues Extended, Simulated Catalogues P Based on geophysical and probabilistic analyses of the South Iceland earthquakes, a Monte Carlo simulation of future earthquake events has been attempted. < Let X(8,N,h,m,t) be a stochastic point process, a so-called Klondike process, where (7,M,H) are the random latitude, longitude and focal depth of the earthquake event. M is a random magnitude, and T is the random year of occurrence calculated as the time of the last event plus the inter-arrival time.

32 Seismic zoning of the Reykjavik Area P The study area is subdivided into a suitable mesh. At each grid point, the peak acceleration a p is calculated for a predefined subset of the earthquake catalogue P The probabilities of occurrence for all a p s are calculated (using standard models, for example Lomnitz) P The extreme value distribution of a p for each grid point within the study area is obtained. From the distributions a p corresponding to any chosen average return period can be obtained by interpolation P Based on these values, iso-acceleration curves for the a p s can be drawn for the selected return period.

33 Seismic Zoning of Reykjavik The isoacceleration curves show the expected 500 year surface acceleration in % g

34 475 years acceleration values for the whole country Red:" g $0,4 Orange:" g $0,3 Yellow:" g $0,2 Green:" g $0,1 Blue:" g $0,05

35 Conclusion P Iceland is a risky place to live in P The volcanic eruption in Lakagígir 1784 produced the greatest lavaflow in history. Poisonous gases and the harsh winter caused by the eruption killed the lifestock and large part of the population. It fell to about 39 thousand people having reached almost 100 thousand in the third century after settlement ( ) P Frequent earthquakes have raised havoc in the South Iceland lowlands about once every century, the last event in 2000 P We have learnt to cope with these natural hazards. Research and mitigation enables us to confront these hazards with more ease

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