Megathrust Earthquakes
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1 Megathrust Earthquakes Susan Schwartz University of California Santa Cruz CIDER 2017 UC Berkeley July 5, 2017
2 The largest megathrust events are not uniformally distributed at all subduction zones.
3 M>8 since 1900, blue events between Lay, 2014
4 Lay, 2014
5 Goals of this talk Synthesize what has been learned from seismic studies of the numerous, well recorded recent megathrust earthquakes Discuss some outstanding ques>ons and direc>ons for future research
6 Earthquakes are Controlled by Fric>on Depth Below Sea Floor (km) Parkfield, CA Seismicity Aseismic Seismogenic Aseismic The seismogenic zone is defined by the transi9ons from stable to unstable fric9onal deforma9on Marone & Scholz, 1988
7 Friction τ = µ σ n proposed that stick-slip behavior in laboratory friction experiments might be analogous to earthquake rupture
8 S>ck Slip Behavior σ µ S,D K τ τ = µ s σ n Sliding initiates at static friction coefficient but frictional resistance falls once sliding starts resulting in a dynamic instability or slip B Slope = -K Condition for Instability: δτ/δu >K (K- elastic properties of the medium) τ The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to The image cannot be display Displacement C f Frictional stability is determined by the combination of 1) fault zone frictional properties and 2) elastic properties of the surrounding material
9 Further work on physics of rock fric>on revealed: 1. Time dependence of friction µ s = µ 0 + A ln (Bt+1) (Dietrich) 2. Velocity dependence of friction µ V o V 1 = e V o Slip rate µ D = µ 0 + a ln (V/V 0 )+ b ln(v 0 θ/d c ) v a b Velocity Weakening D c Slip b-a >0 Instantaneous effect Evolutionary effect
10 Rate and State Dependent Friction Law µ V o V 1 = e V o Slip rate a b Velocity Weakening D c b-a >0 Slip a-b <0 velocity weakening- STICK-SLIP INSTABILITY a-b > 0 velocity strengthening and STABLE
11 Friction Laws and Their Application to Seismic Faulting (a-b) > 0 Always Stable, No Earthquake Nucleation, Dynamic Rupture Arrested (a-b) < 0 Unstable, Earthquakes May Nucleate, Dynamic Rupture Will Propagate (a-b) ~ 0 Conditionally Stable, No Earthquakes Nucleate, Dynamic Rupture May Propagate a - b Seismicity ( - ) ( + ) Earthquake Stress Drop ( - ) ( + ) seismogenic zone
12 Up-Dip Stable/Unstable Frictional Transition 1) Clay mineral transformation 2) Consolidation/lithification state of fault gouge and accretionary prism materials Poorly consolidated granular gouge exhibits velocity strengthening Lithified materials and highly localized shear exhibit velocity weakening Seismogenic Zone
13 Moore et al., 2007 Seismogenic Zone
14 Seismogenic Zone Down-Dip Seismic/Aseismic Transition Temperature Contact with serpentinized mantle
15 If a~b we have conditionally stable conditions where earthquakes do not nucleate but slip propagates. At frictional transitions slow slip that occurs at velocities between steady creep and dynamic earthquake rupture can occur.
16
17 Main Asperity Regions First Order Observations 1. Segmentation of the megathrust- rupture areas tend to abut one another 2. Megathrust events tend to have a characteristic recurrence interval Ye et al., 2016
18 S(t) * G(t) * I(t) = U(t)
19 Yue et al., 2013 S(t) * G(t) * I(t) = U(t)
20 Finite Fault Inversions Yue et al., 2013
21 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra Earthquake GPS Inversion Chileh et al., 2007
22 Variation in Earthquake rupture- Due to various asperity distributions
23 Inversion of GPS Velocity for Locking on the Plate Interface 2010 Maule Earthquake Moreno et al., 2010
24 Geodetic plate locking Vs. 3 Coseismic Rupture modes Maule Earthquake Moreno et al., 2010
25 Geodetic Locking Vs. Coseismic Slip for 2012 Nicoya Earthquake Yue et al Protti et al. 2014
26 Deforma>on At Subduc>on Zone Vertical Horizontal Vertical Trench-normal distance (km) Backslip model (Savage, 1983) Shallow part of fault slips only in earthquakes Deeper part slips steadily at long-term rate Superposi>on of steady slip on en>re interface and backslip (slip deficit) Earth deforms as elas>c or linear viscoelas>c body Viscoelas>city of mantle introduces >me dependence!
27 Nicoya, Costa Rica April 2012 EARTHQUAKESeptember 2012 September 2014
28 Afterslip and plate boundary aftershocks tend to occur outside coseismic slip. Chaves et al., 2017
29 Main Asperity Regions- From Coseismic Slip Distribution Slip distributions from megathrust earthquakes Also bring surprises. Lay et al., 2011
30 Future Directions- Asperities Con>nued improvement of coseismic slip inversions integra>ng all available data setsseismic, geode>c, tsunami earthquakes. What do slip patches (asperi>es) represent? Are they controlled by upper or lower plate, both, or neither? Do asperi>es persist through many earthquake cycles?
31 Down-dip Transition and Slow Slip
32 What is Slow Slip? Slow Slip
33 How do we Detect Slow Slip?
34 Cascadia Slow Slip Earthquakes- or Episodic Tremor and Slip (EPS) Modified from Dragert and Rogers [2004]
35 Gomberg et al., 2013 Gomberg and 2007 Cascadia Working Group
36 Shelly et al., 2006
37 Obara, 2011
38 Gao & Wang, 2017
39 Up-dip Transition and Slow Slip
40 Is the Shallow Megathrust Locked? Peru Trench Gagnon et al. (2005) Con9nental Megathrust (Nepal) Galetzka et al. (2015)
41
42 Dixon et al., 2014
43 Jiang et al., 2017
44 Hikurangi Ocean Bottom Investigation of Tremor and Slow Slip HOBITSS Wallace et al., 2016
45 Seafloor moves up ~2-5 cm Wallace et al., 2016
46
47 M 0 = µ A x d ~ (M 0 ) M 0 ~ L 3 L =V r d Gomberg, 2017 d ~ (M 0 ) 1/3 V r is quasi-constant controlled by seismic velocity L~ d M 0 ~ d 3 d ~ (M 0 ) 1/3
48 Does Slow Slip Precede Megathrust Earthquakes? 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Kato et al, 2012 Ito et al., 2013
49 Does Slow Slip Precede Megathrust Earthquakes? 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Acceleration from interpreted as up-dip migration of slow slip Mavrommatis et al., 2014
50 Does Slow Slip Precede Megathrust Earthquakes? 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.1 Kato & Nakagawa, 2014
51 Kato & Nakagawa, Iquique, Chile Mw 8.1
52 Kato & Nakagawa, Iquique, Chile Mw 8.1
53 2014 Iquique, Chile Mw 8.1
54 Obara & Kato, 2016
55 The subduction interface is more complex than we usually draw (Bebout, and Penniston-Dorland, 2015)
56 Future Directions-Slow Slip Can seismic and aseismic processes occur at the same loca>ons at different >mes? Are the mechanisms of slow slip different at different loca>ons along the plate interface (up dip vs. down dip of the seismogenic zone) Does slow slip commonly precede megathrust earthquakes? What is the strain budget at the megathrust boundary?
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