In a valedictory address given in 1989, H.T. Verstappen stresses the importance

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2 Global climate change coupled with an increasing world population, provide a sufficient rationale for the continued research of natural hazards. As the magnitude and frequency of hazards increase, there are correspondingly more people placed in harms way. In order to ensure adequate management practices, it is important to understand both the physical and perceived risks that are associated with these hazards. I have conducted a review of geomorphology literature to evaluate the role geomorphologists have in the management of natural hazards. It is obvious that geomorphology contributes useful research to the physical processes that cause natural hazards. Attributes such as magnitude, frequency, and spatial scale of hazards are important elements in their prediction. Some of the most useful geomorphologic contributions include a multidisciplinary approach, the establishment of physical risk, prediction methods, and an international area of focus on developing countries. Through such contributions, it is hopeful that the urgency of research for both the physical and social aspects of natural hazards will be fulfilled for the benefit of future management. Introduction In a valedictory address given in 1989, H.T. Verstappen stresses the importance of focusing scientific efforts on global climate change and the study of natural hazards. Dr. Verstappen is a geomorphologist at the Institute for Aerial Survey and Earth Sciences in Enschede, Netherlands. He states, large numbers of people in all parts of the world are in imminent danger of falling victim to natural disaster, and the pace of global change is such that we probably have only a few decades to respond adequately and to survive (Verstappen, 1989, p.162). Although this is an extreme statement, in 1989 his urgency for new focus on this research is warranted (Verstappen, 1989). The shifting global climate contributes to an increase in the magnitude and frequency of natural hazards. In the same respect, the growing world population allows for an increase of human lives and development to be placed in harms way. With this increase comes greater devastation from such hazards as earthquakes, landslides, and flooding. In order to diminish financial and human loss, it is important to understand both the physical and perceived risks that are associated with natural hazards. 2

3 I plan to conduct my thesis work on the risk perception of natural hazards in the Bay Area of San Francisco. This study will be conducted by surveying homeowners in the Bay Area on their awareness of hazard risks. It will include mapping the predicted physical risk for the surveyed areas. By linking geomorphology to this study I hope to gain a better understanding of how geomorphic research can contribute to the study of natural hazards management. Risk perception, or risk management, is a tool used to assess and mitigate all risk presented by natural hazards. It involves a blend of policy-based and science-based issues. The policy-based issues involve mitigation measures and management strategies that deal with and help prevent the human and financial loss from hazards. The sciencebased issues concern the physical processes of hazards and how they are predicted. Specifically they include such items as prediction, spatial distribution, and magnitude and frequency of hazards, all of which can be found within the field of geomorphology. I chose to conduct a literature review on the role geomorphology plays in natural hazards research to see where it can contribute to the science issues present in risk management. The Role of Geomorphologists Between 1990 and 1999, 2808 disasters were recorded worldwide. Eighty-four percent of them were related to geomorphology (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002 p. 117). Figure 1 indicates that the large majority of hazards present today are geomorphologically related. According to Alcántara-Ayala, geomorphological disasters include slides, floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, windstorms, droughts, and wild fires (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002 p. 117). The science-based issues involved in risk analysis relate to such physical processes. The remaining natural disasters mentioned include extreme temperatures and 3

4 epidemics. This figure demonstrates the obvious role that geomorphologists play in studying physical processes associated with natural hazards. Figure 1. X-axis: year, Y-axis: number of occurrences. Alcántara-Ayala, 2002, p.116 Although studies of the physical system were incorporated into natural hazards research during the fields inception, eventually the focus shifted to the social sciences. Gares feels that at its current state, the field of natural hazards has a social science bias. It is now the role of geomorphologists to provide in depth studies on the physical processes of natural hazards, and incorporate them back into the natural hazards field (Gares, 1994). Rosenfeld states that the global damage from natural disasters has increased three-fold from the 1960 s through the 1980 s, leaving more than three million dead and causing the displacement of more than 800 million persons during that period (Rosenfeld, 1994, p. 27). Due to this recent increase in human and economic loss from natural disasters, the international science community has taken action to predict and mitigate future disasters. This effort includes incorporating sciences such as 4

5 geomorphology into management and mitigation tasks. Geomorphologists are researchers capable of understanding the extreme weather hazards that result from continued global climate change. They are familiar with magnitude and frequency concepts, which are critical when establishing a threshold of extreme events (Rosenfeld, 1994). Disaster mitigation studies are inherently multidisciplinary, and geomorphologists can contribute greatly to most areas of this research. Such studies include past changes of landforms and processes, current geomorphic processes and their relationship to soils and hydrology, anthropogenic changes made to the environment, and local land-use planning, monitoring, and warning systems (Verstappen, 1989). Although geomorphologists have done little work on risk studies thus far (Slaymaker, 1996), they can contribute to the risk assessment process by designing hazard mitigation strategies in balance with the dynamics of processes within the region (Rosenfeld, 1994, p.35). They can also assess risk through their advanced knowledge of geomorphology by developing prediction models, and through applied geomorphology that helps manage for future events (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002). Natural and Geomorphic Hazards Defining Natural Hazards Within geomorphology literature, natural hazards are defined in many ways. A general definition given is that the term natural hazard implies the occurrence of a natural condition or phenomenon, which threatens or acts hazardously in a defined space and time (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002, p. 108). Such phenomena have been taking place 5

6 since the earth was first formed. It was not until the presence of humans that such occurrences transformed into natural disasters or hazards. Humans play an important role in defining natural hazards. Alcántara-Ayala defines natural hazards in relation to a state of disequilibrium. He considers this occurrence to be a sudden disequilibrium between natural forces and the forces of the social system. The severity of such disequilibrium depends on the relation between the magnitude of the natural event and the tolerance of human settlements to such an event (Albala-Bertrand, 1993) (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002, p.112). Clague chooses to neglect hazards that are explicitly due to anthropogenic causes, such as forest fires. Instead he defines natural hazards as being either geologically or geomorphologically controlled, and threatening to communities, roads, and major developments (Clague, 1982). Although he does not include human induced hazards, he does note the importance of impacts to the human environment. Distinguishing Natural Hazards From Geomorphic Hazards Gares argues that unlike natural hazards, geomorphic hazards do not have a direct affect on human life and usually occur over long temporal scales. Although most authors do not make the distinction, Gares attempts to differentiate geomorphic hazards from natural hazards. He defines geomorphic hazards as occurring due to the instability of the surface features of the earth (Gares, 1994, p. 5). According to Gares, hazards do not become geomorphic until they actually change the landscape (Gares, 1994). Gares uses the example that earthquakes are a natural hazard and slope failure is a geomorphic hazard, even if an earthquake causes it. Other specific examples of geomorphic hazards include coastal erosion, soil erosion, mass movements, and fluvial 6

7 erosion. When compared to natural hazards, Gares feels that geomorphic hazards tend to have lower magnitude, higher frequency, slower onset rates, more widespread areal extent, more diffuse spatial dispersion, more regular temporal spacing, and occur over a longer temporal scale. This may provide difficulty in studies that incorporate both natural hazards and geomorphic hazards (Gares, 1994). Although this is an interesting perspective, Gares is the only author to make such a distinction. Alcántara-Ayala does not distinguish differences between natural hazards and geomorphic hazards. Instead he terms such events as earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, and flooding as both natural hazards and geophysical events. The true distinction between the two comes from the presence of vulnerability. Natural disasters will occur only when both natural vulnerability and human vulnerability are present in the same space and time. If human vulnerability is not present then the process is simply a geophysical event (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002). So although he does not choose to make a definitive distinction between the two, he does define natural hazards as processes having direct impacts on humans. In 1996, Slaymaker was the first to classify geomorphic hazards into the three sub-groups: endogenous (processes that occur within the Earth), exogenous (occurring outside of the Earth), and those induced by climate and land-use change (Slaymaker, 1996). Eight years later, Alcántara-Ayala uses this same classification for geomorphic hazards. He states that volcanism and neotechtonics are examples of endogenous geomorphic hazards, while floods, karst collapse, snow avalanche, channel erosion, sedimentation, mass movement, tsunamis, and coastal erosion are given as examples of exogenous geomorphic hazards. Desertification, permafrost, degradation, soil erosion, 7

8 salinization, and floods are given as examples of geomorphic hazards induced by climate and land-use change (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002). Other authors choose to ignore the human element and define geomorphic hazards strictly in relation to prediction and probability. Panizza defines a geomorphological hazard as the probability that a certain phenomenon reflecting geomorphological instability will occur in a certain territory in a given period of time (Panizza, 1987, p. 225). An instable landform will occur through disequilibrium with the natural environment, and only through a shift or change can this landform move toward an equilibrium state (Panizza, 1987). According to Slaymaker, geomorphologists tend to define a geomorphic hazard as the probability of a change of a given magnitude occurring within a specified time period in a given area (Slaymaker, 1996, p.1). Magnitude & Frequency of Geomorphic Hazards Even though numerous definitions for what constitutes a geomorphic hazard can be found, all authors seem to agree that the magnitude and frequency of the hazard is an important distinction. Gares, Slaymaker, and Alcántara-Ayala feel that magnitude, frequency, temporal scale, and spatial scale are all key geomorphic concepts correlated to natural hazards (Gares, 1994; Slaymaker, 1996; Alcántara-Ayala, 2002). Magnitude covers the characteristics of the hazard and frequency describes how often the event is likely to occur (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002). Table 1 is very useful in showing the impact of frequency and magnitude, and how different geomorphological hazards are broken down. It shows the 3 classes of geomorphic hazards mentioned earlier: exogenous, endogenous, and climate or land-use induced, in relation to magnitude and frequency. A downfall of this table is that it does 8

9 not show a distinction between site, local, regional, and national hazards. However, it does show that there can be an important distinction made between high magnitude and low magnitude hazards (Slaymaker, 1996). It is also interesting to note that many hazards can be found in both categories. Table 1. Categories of geomorphic hazards. Slaymaker, 1996, p.2 Specific physical attributes of hazards can prove useful in future management practices. The magnitude and frequency of past geomorphic hazards can indicate trends in geomorphological instability, and potentially help predict when and where hazards will occur in the future (Panizza, 1987). Traditionally, geomorphologists have concentrated their efforts on large (regional) scales. However, for proper implementation of mitigation and risk management, a smaller (local) scale must be examined (Rosenfeld, 1994). 9

10 Specific Contributions The previous literature has established that geomorphology can indeed benefit the field of natural hazards. Now it is important to focus on the specific contributions geomorphology can make to natural hazards management including a multidisciplinary approach, the establishment of geomorphological risk, prediction methods, and an international area of focus. Multidisciplinary Approach The field of natural hazards involves conflicts between physical and human systems and is an obvious subject of study for geographers (Gares, 1994, p. 1). It is only through a multidisciplinary approach that hazards research can manage for the future. Amongst geoscientists, geomorphologists with a geography background might be best equipped to undertake research related to the prevention of natural disasters given the understanding not only of the natural processes, but also of their interactions with the human system (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002, p.108). D. Alexander, M. Panizza, and H.T. Verstappen are all geomorphologists who incorporate their advanced understanding of geomorphological processes with social issues for a more thorough understanding of natural hazards (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002). Prior to 1960, natural hazards were approached from an almost strictly physical perspective. It was not until the 1960s and 1970s that social and economic characteristics were implemented. Many of the geomorphology articles mentioned in this review promote the inclusion of more social, political, and economic characteristics into geomorphology research. This will allow for an easier collaboration with other fields of 10

11 study. It will also cause management and the general public to show more interest in geomorphic hazards (Gares, 1994). Establishing Geomorphological Risk By including both social and physical elements in hazards research, geomorphological risk can be established. The field of geomorphology plays an important role in establishing this risk. The risk approach to geomorphic hazards enables a fuller incorporation of both expert analysis and societal synthesis in the solution of the natural hazards problem (Slaymaker, 1996, p.6). The risk approach mentioned here transcends past the simplicity of previous geomorphic hazard studies that mostly focus on physical processes. Throughout the 1990s, the studies have extended even further to include perceptions of hazards, which is an important factor in developing risk management approaches. Alcántara-Ayala stresses the importance for researchers to involve themselves not only in the science of natural hazards, but also in the risk assessment and management programs (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002). Those dealing with geomorphological risk and especially those trying to mitigate this risk must also deal with the organizational problems of a social, economic, and political nature, that contribute to this risk (Panizza, 1987). A geomorphic hazard multiplied by the social and economic vulnerability of a region produces the geomorphological risk present there (Panizza, 1987). It is the probability that the social and economic structures of an area can withstand the geomorphological instabilities present. It is important to note that geomorphological risk is impossible to predict without knowing the social and economic make-up of a particular 11

12 location. A fantastic example of this is that erosion is a hazard that may not involve any risk in a desert area, whereas in a densely populated or highly industrialized area, it could represent a high risk (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002, p.228). It is important in hazards management to weigh options and focus research based on the severity of risk. Slaymaker specifically defines how geomorphologists can establish this risk. He mentions three main steps geomorphologists can take when determining geomorphological risk. The first is the mapping of geomorphic hazard domains, which can also be ranked according to degree of instability. The second step is to assess the vulnerability present. This is where human and economic loss is evaluated. The final step is to prioritize georesources, which would place the highest priority on urban land since this is where human life is most consolidated (Slaymaker, 1996). Methods for Prediction Methods for predicting hazards are probably where geomorphologists can contribute the greatest to management efforts. Although these methods are not guaranteed to predict the next big disaster, they can help with making emergency decisions, aide in mitigation measures, and reduce future risk in an area. Some basic methods used to predict hazards include geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing, modeling, and statistical techniques. The mapping of landforms coupled with land-use and infrastructure, emergency services, risk management, public awareness, training, regulation, and social insurance is now possible due to the advent of GIS. It allows for the mapping, modeling, and decision-making tools to handle all of these elements. When this technology is paired 12

13 with the Global Positioning System (GPS) and satellite remote sensing, geographic data collection is greatly improved (Rosenfeld, 1994). Geomorphological hazards prediction also benefits from the technology of remote sensing. Such techniques can delineate geomorphic zones with distinctive origins, surficial materials, and erosional sensitivities (Rosenfeld, 1994, p.33). Remote sensing has a great influence upon monitoring events and therefore has increased in the frequency of its use. Remote sensing techniques are most useful with large-scale hazards and can provide useful hazard zoning maps and assist in structural mitigation (Rosenfeld, 1994). Along with the methods mentioned above, there are an abundance of methods for predicting individual hazards such as flooding and landslides. Flood prediction can be accomplished by using measured properties from past small floods to predict future large floods. Theoretical models based on assumed principles of flooding can be created. Assumptions about the sediments, landforms, and erosional scars of past floods to predict future occurrences can also be accomplished for flood prediction (Baker, 1994). Landslide prediction can occur through evaluating spatial patterns of environmental factors such as rainfall intensity (Zhou, 2002). Soil wetness modeling and topographic attributes can also be used when predicting landslides (Gritzner, 2001). International Area of Focus Finally, geomorphology can contribute to the management efforts in developing countries. This is a topic found throughout geomorphic hazards literature. Many reasons are provided for this international focus on developing countries. First of all, developing countries are generally located within close proximity to geomorphological hazard zones such as severe flooding, or seismic and volcanic activity. Secondly, developing countries 13

14 are usually in a state of poor economic, social, and political conditions, which provide greater susceptibility to human and financial loss from hazards (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002). Finally, much of the destruction from natural hazards comes from lack of mitigation in hazard prone areas. In developing countries, it is usually not the lack of education or knowledge of the hazard that prevents mitigation, but the lack of resources or unwillingness to divert limited national wealth to such causes (Rosenfeld, 1994, p.27). Panizza feels that vulnerability to hazards will be high in areas of low social organization, with a lack of prediction and monitoring techniques, and an inefficient intervening governing body (Panizza, 1987). As the severity of disasters increase, there is an exponential rise in the number of casualties among the poorer nations (Rosenfeld, 1994, p.31). Table 2 shows that the global death toll from natural hazards is highest in developing countries (Alcántara- Ayala, 2002). The table does show significant impacts from hazards in countries such as Japan, USA, France, and Switzerland, but it is obvious that the impacts are much greater in countries such as Bangladesh, India, China, Guatemala, Colombia, and Mexico (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002). 14

15 Table 2. Some of the major geomorphology related natural disasters of the world form 1990 to (Data source: EM-DAT and the *Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance). Alcántara-Ayala, 2002, p

16 Conclusion It is clear that the conceptualization (of natural hazards) has changed from a perspective of a merely physical or natural event, towards the integration of the human system (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002, p.118). I feel that geomorphological hazard research should also follow in this trend. More recently, geomorphology literature is breaking into Applied Geomorphology which transcends past the physical studies to include human impacts, mitigation measures, and management implications. By incorporating geomorphology into my own studies of risk perception I will greatly enhance the science-based issues involved and have a better understanding of the methods for predicting hazards. My assessment of the vulnerability present from both physical and perceived risk will also be improved. Providing more appropriate scientific methods for prediction and implementing international training programs for increased education will reduce vulnerability to natural hazards in the future (Alcántara-Ayala, 2002). 16

17 References Alcántara-Ayala, I Geomorphology, natural hazards, vulnerability and prevention of natural disasters in developing countries. Geomorphology 47(2): Baker, V Geomorphological understanding of floods. Geomorphology 10(1): Clague, J.J The role of geomorphology in the identification and evaluation of natural hazards. pp in R.G. Craig and J.L. Craft (eds), Applied Geomorphology. Winchester, Mass: Unwin-Hyman. Gares, P.A, D.J. Sherman, and K.F. Nordstrom Geomorphology and natural hazards. Geomorphology 10: Gritzner, M., W.A. Marcus, R. Aspinall, and S.G. Custer Geomorphology 37(1): Panizza, M Geomorphological hazard assessment and the analysis of geomorphological risk. In V. Gardiner (ed.), International Geomorphology 1986, pp Part I. New York: Wiley. Rosenfeld, C. L The geomorphological dimensions of natural disasters. Geomorphology 10(2): Slaymaker, O Introduction. In: Slaymaker, O. (Ed.), Geomorphic Hazards. Wiley, Chichester, pp Verstappen, H.T Geomorphology, natural disasters and global change. Symposium on Aerospace Survey and Natural Disasters. International Institute for Geo- Information Science (ITC) Journal (3-4): Zhou, C.H., C.F. Lee, J. Li, and Z.W. Xu On the spatial relationship between landslides and causative factors on Lantau Island, Hong Kong. Geomorphology 43(3):