Resource data: the provider s perspective

Transcription

1 Resource data: the provider s perspective Workshop on Mineral Resources in LCIA Mapping the path forward Natural History Museum, London October 14, 2015 Jane M. Hammarstrom Nedal Nassar U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

2 What does USGS provide? Data collection, analysis, and dissemination National Minerals Information Center (NMIC) The USGS Mineral Resources Program (MRP) delivers unbiased science and information to understand mineral resource potential, production, consumption, and how mineral resources interact with the environment

3 What does USGS provide? Research Materials Flow and Recycling Research Mineral Resources and the Environment Mineral Resource Assessment

4 Resource: a concentration of naturally occurring solid, liquid or gaseous material in/on the Earth s crust in such form and amount that economic extraction of a commodity from the concentration is currently or potentially feasible. Reserve: Part of identified resources that could be economically extracted or produced at the time of determination. The term reserves need not signify that extraction facilities are in place and operative. Reserves include only recoverable materials.

5 Copper Production and Reserve Estimates Resource: Economic extraction is currently or potentially feasible Reserve: Could be economically extracted at the time of determination Mine production Reserves e United States 1,170 1,220 39,000 Australia ,000 Canada ,000 Chile 5,430 5, ,000 China 1,630 1,650 30,000 Congo (Kinshasa) ,000 Indonesia ,000 Kazakhstan ,000 Mexico ,000 Peru 1,300 1,300 70,000 Poland ,000 Russia ,000 Zambia ,000 Other countries 2,000 2,000 90,000 World total (rounded) 16,900 17, ,000 1 For Australia, Joint Ore Reserves Committee (JORC)-compliant reserves were about 24 million tons. Source: USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2014

6 World Copper Reserves, 1990 and 2013 [Million metric tons (Mt)] (Total = 336 Mt) Chile Other USA USSR Zaire Australia Zambia Canada Poland Peru (Total = 690 Mt) Chile Other Australia Peru USA Mexico China Russia Indonesia Poland Zambia Congo Source: USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 1991, 2014

7 What do we know about reserve estimates? True: Snapshot in time - moving target A company s needs and government policy can affect estimates Estimates may lack consistency owing to source, methodology, and professional judgment False: Compiled reserves tell us how many years until the copper supply is depleted As ore is mined, reserves must decrease What do we know about resources?

8 Assessment of Undiscovered Mineral Resources exploration reserves USGS resource classification Example as modified by GTK undiscovered mineral resources : location, grade, quality, and quantity of mineralized material are not constrained by specific geologic evidence (includes subeconomic)

9 How? USGS 3-Part Form of Assessment (1) Delineate areas that are permissive for the deposit type based on mineral deposit models Singer, D.A., and Menzie, W.D., 2010, Quantitative mineral resource assessments An integrated approach: New York, Oxford University Press, 219 p. (2) Use grade and tonnage models as analogs for undiscovered resources Geology (3) Make probabilistic estimates of numbers of undiscovered deposits Estimator N90 N50 N10 Mean s Coefficient of variation % % % % % % Consensus % Combine estimates with grade-tonnage models using Monte Carlo simulation to estimate contained metal

10 Global Copper Assessment A cooperative international effort to assess the world s undiscovered copper mineral resources To provide unbiased, science-based information on the geologic availability of mineral resources for resource development, land-use planning, and decision making Why is copper so important? 45 kg in a hybrid car 0.9 miles of wire in a car 120,000 tons of copper were used for wind energy in 2011 Data source: ICSG World Refined Copper Usage

11 Areas that could contain undiscovered copper resources

12 Global assessment results for copper

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14 Are we running out of copper? (resource depletion) NO! Will copper be available for future generations? It depends Demand Exploration (deep) Recycling (including waste) Technology Economics Social and political license to explore and mine Competing land uses Environmentally responsible development Societal understanding of the value of copper

15 For resource depletion, where do you start? Parameter Copper, in million metric tons Comment Source World refined copper usage For 2012 For 2013 For 2014 International Copper Study Group (2015) World mine production For 2012 For 2013 For 2014 Cumulative production 600 Cumulative world copper production from 1879 to Cumulative world copper production from 1892 to 2011 World reserves 680 For For For 2014 Identified world resources 2,100 Past production and measured, indicated, and inferred resources at the lowest reported cutoff grade 1,860 Resources identified in 730 copper projects as of 2010, includes operating mines as well as deposits in development and exploration; all types; includes 80.4 Mt Chinese national resources. Edelstein (2013) Brininstool (2014) Brininstool (2015) D.Edelstein, written commun., 2013 Mudd and others (2013) Edelstein (2013) Brininstool (2014) Brininstool (2015) Singer and Menzie (2010) Mudd and others (2013) Undiscovered world resources 3,200 Porphyry copper deposits (upper 1 km) USGS global copper assessment (2 main deposit types only) 400 Sediment-hosted stratabound copper deposits (upper 2.5 km) Theoretical world resources 170,000 Porphyry copper deposits Kesler and Wilkinson (2008) 89,000 All deposit types ( upper 3.3 km) recoverable 300,000 All types (entire crust)