REGIONAL GROUND MOTION PREDICTION AND DATABASE

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Jade Townsend
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1 REGIONAL GROUND MOTION PREDICTION AND DATABASE 1.1 Identification of Primary input parameters a. Magnitudes and intensities of historical Earthquake In this recent century, Indonesia has been impacted by a lot of Earthquakes every year. Most of big islands and cities in Indonesia have earth quake occurrences which cause small and big damage. There are many historical earth quake including magnitudes and intensities which were recorded by geologists. Classification Source Area Maximum Magnitude Subduction Zones Sumatra 9.0 Java 8.2 Banda 8.5 Seram 8.4 North Irian Jaya 8.4 Halmahera 8.5 Sangihe Talaud 8.5 North Sulawesi 8.0 Molluca Passage 8.5 Transform Zones Sumatra Fault 7.6 Sukabumi 7.6 Baribis 6.0 Lasem 6.0 Majene-Bulukamba 6.5 Palu-Koro 7.6 Matano 7.6 Sorong 7.6 Ransiki-Lengguru 6.5 Yapen-Mamberano 7.6 Tarera-Aiduna 6.5 Diffuse Seismicity Flores Back-arc 7.0 East Kalimantan 6.0 South Arm Sulawesi 6.0 East Arm Sulawesi 6.0 Southeast Arm Sulawesi 6.0 Central Sulawesi 6.5 South Halmahera 7.0 Central Banda 8.0 Aru 6.0 Salawati-Bintuni Basin 6.0 Central Irian Jaya 8.5 NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 1

Seismic Monitoring NO. OCCURANCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23.

2 Seismic Monitoring NO. OCCURANCE May June June April June June March August March April January November June December 2004 LOCATION Padang Prapat Bengkulu Lampung Bengkulu Bengkulu Aceh Tapanuli Padang Lampung Tapanuli Padang Tes Bengkulu Aceh Pasaman Kepahiang Bengkulu Tapanuli Aceh Tarutung Liwa Lampung Bengkulu Bengkulu NAD & Sumatra Utara b. Recent fault lines MAGNITUDE / INTENSITY MMI VII VIII MMI VI, 6.5 MS 7.7 MS MMI VIII 7.1 MS MMI I XI MMI VIII IX, 6.75 MS MMI VIII IX, 7.5 MS MMI VIII 7.6 MS 6.3 MS 6.7 mb 6.1 MW 6.5 MW MMI VIII 7.1 MS 6.0 MS 6.9 MW, 6.1 mb 6.4 MS, 6.6 MW 7.3 SR, 7.9 MW 9.0 SR Indonesia Region is located in a tectonically very complex and very active area. This region consists of four large tectonic plates (Indo Australia plate, Pacific Plate, Eurasian Plate, Philipine Plate) and nine small tectonic plates. The plate with different types of movement that has created subduction zones and fault zones which is continuously active. In addition, there is Back arc zone at some parts, for instance, in the Flores see. NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 2

Generally, this moving is really slow and cannot be sensed by people even it is moving 0 15 cm each year.

3 c. Source mechanisms There are 3 kinds of mechanisms which cause the earth quake. That are, subduction, Back Arc, and Transform. According to the tectonic line picture above, most of the tectonic line in Sumatera Island are subduction and transform. Generally, this moving is really slow and cannot be sensed by people even it is moving 0 15 cm each year. Sometimes, this moving is locked; hence the energy is collecting in particular part and then the tectonic plate is not able to hold this energy and finally it will be a explosion where it is famous recognized as Earth Quake. NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 3

Subduction mechanism Back Arc mechanism Transform (fault) mechanism The Australia plate is subducted beneath the Eurasia plate along the Java trench.

4 Subduction mechanism Back Arc mechanism Transform (fault) mechanism The Australia plate is subducted beneath the Eurasia plate along the Java trench. The direction of convergence is normal to the trench south of Java, but oblique to the trench southwest of Sumatra. It is widely accepted that the oblique subduction of Sumatra is partitioned into normal subduction along the trench and strike slip along the trench parallel Sumatran Fault. d. Source depth 5 years ago, at 26 December 2004, there was a huge earth quake occurred in Sumatera, it also caused a Tsunami which killed people and destroy all buildings where it were close to the coast. Another big earth quake in Sumatra was in Padang which was occurred at last year (30 September 2009). More than a thousand people were killed by 7.5 Magnitude of earth quake. These are databases of each earth quake in Sumatra, especially it were taken near to Aceh province and Padang province. NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 4

5 Seism mic Monitoring 1.2 Id dentification n of Primaryy Input Param meters (Seissmic Action Class) a. Seeismic Mode el Th hese picturess below are deescribing the distribution o of earth quakkes in Indonesia. It can be cllearly seen th hat Indonesia s earthquakee source is divvided into 6 zones. It depeends on the frrequency of e earth quake, intensity and magnitude. NHMSE W WS 09/10 (firrdaus.firdaus@uni weim mar.de; ) P Page 5

b. Decision upon the type of spectrum Each zone below has different PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration) due to distance of tectonic plate, earth quake source and also geotechnical behavior.

6 b. Decision upon the type of spectrum Each zone below has different PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration) due to distance of tectonic plate, earth quake source and also geotechnical behavior. These graphs below explain the response spectra of each zone. Every zone is divided into 3 soil properties, which are soft soil, clay soil and stiff soil. The response spectra of stiff soil are the lowest among the others. The clay soil has response spectra in the middle of graphs and the response spectra of soft soil are the highest. C. Comparable to Eurocode 8: M 5.5: Type I; M < 5.5: Type II The tables and graphs below are illustrating the response spectra from EURO code 8 for each type of soils. It can be clearly seen that the response spectra of earth quake with M 5.5 (Type I) is larger than the response spectra of earth quake with M < 5.5 (type II). NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 6

7 After combining the equation of the response spectra from Euro Code and sub soil condition in Indonesia, we could find the new graph as following below: According to these graphs above, we could conclude the result is that the combined response spectra graphs are small then the response spectra of Indonesia. NHMSE WS 09/10 weimar.de; 91128) Page 7

8 d. Location of major cities (Selection of Reference) Indonesia is recognized as archipelago s country which has more than ten thousand islands. 60% of population is concentrating in the Java Island and the rest are distributed in Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Irian Island. Most of big cities in Indonesia have big potential to have earth quake due to the location is near to the tectonic plate and active mountain. In this report, I m investigating 2 provinces, that are, Aceh Province (NAD) and Padang Province (Sumatera Barat). e. Decision upon typical and relevant magnitude distance categories There are 2 graphs which are describing a relationship between distance of earth quake source and magnitude in each province. NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 8

9 Earth Quake in Aceh No Date Time (UTC) Location Depth (d) Magnitude Hipocentrum (h) Epicentrum (d^2+h^2)^0.5 Latitude (N 0 ) Longitude(E 0 ) [km] [M] [km] [km] 1 26-Dec-04 00:58: '42.00"N 95 58'55.20"E Dec-04 04:21: '36.00"N 92 57'28.80"E Dec-04 09:39: '52.80"N 94 39'0.00"E Dec-04 01:25: '56.40"N 94 12'46.80"E Dec-04 15:06: '3.60"N 94 5'9.60"E Dec-04 19:19: '38.40"N 94 9'43.20"E Dec-04 02:00: '52.80"N 94 40'1.20"E Dec-04 01:21: '24.00"N 93 21'39.60"E Dec-04 12:04: '14.40"N 92 54'46.80"E Dec-04 1:22: '15.60"N 93 59'6.00"E Dec-04 2:24:01 7 7'12.00"N 92 31'58.80"E Dec-04 3:22: '8.40"N 95 5'31.20"E Dec-04 13:46:03 5 6'46.80"N 96 9'43.20"E Dec-04 3:26: '32.40"N 96 24'18.00"E Dec-04 21:06: '15.60"N 96 20'31.20"E Dec-04 3:42: '4.80"N 94 24'10.80"E Jun-06 19:59: '27.60"N 94 10'8.40"E Jan-05 8:27: '31.20"N 95 27'43.20"E Mar-05 17:29: '51.60"N 95 25'22.80"E No Date Time (UTC) Location Earth Quake in Padang Depth (d) Magnitude Hipocentrum (h) Epicentrum (d^2+h^2)^0.5 Latitude (N 0 ) Longitude(E 0 ) [km] [M] [km] [km] 1 30-Sep-09 22:16: Dec-09 1:11: Aug-09 7:38: Sep-09 10:38: Aug-09 20:23: Sep-09 23:47: Aug-09 2:55: Aug-09 11:35: Aug-09 13:55: Aug-09 12:49: Aug-09 9:28: Aug-09 18:50: Aug-09 18:42: Aug-09 10:45: Sep-07 14:13:44 2 8'6.00"S 99 56'6.00"E Sep-07 16:59: '2.40"S 99 56'49.20"E May-07 19:29: '40.80"S 99 52'22.80"E f. Definition of seismic action classes (SAC) Seismic action classes (SAC) is a classification of earth quake s intensity in a country or region where it is dependent on the magnitude, distance, soil condition and source mechanism. The map below is illustrating the SAC in Indonesia. NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 9

g. Conversion between Intensity, Magnitude and Distance Indonesia s geologists are using an equation from Gutenberg Richter to measure the intensity of earth quake in a particular area.

3 Identification of Primary input parameters (3): subsoil conditions a. Geological and topographical maps The maps below are drawing the geological and topographical condition in Indonesia.

10 g. Conversion between Intensity, Magnitude and Distance Indonesia s geologists are using an equation from Gutenberg Richter to measure the intensity of earth quake in a particular area. Gutenberg Richter : Io = 1,5 ( M 0,5) I = Io exp. ( 0,0021 X), Where : Io = Intensity at Hypocenter X = Distance between Io and I 1.3 Identification of Primary input parameters (3): subsoil conditions a. Geological and topographical maps The maps below are drawing the geological and topographical condition in Indonesia. It is consisted of several of soil types for instance, metamorphic rock, Mesozoic formation and volcanic formation. It is caused by many active volcano and many tectonic plate in Indonesia. NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 10

Those are hard rock, stiff soil and soft soil.

11 b. Code Spectra These are soil condition properties in Indonesia. Indonesia s geologists divided it into 3 soil type. Those are hard rock, stiff soil and soft soil. Each type has particular period and it is allocated in the specific zone in Indonesia. NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 11

12 c. Comparable to Eurocode 8: Table of ground classes These are the ground classes which are classified by Euro code 8 2. Ground Motion Prediction Models (GMPM) There are many attenuation equations which have been determined by scientist and geologist, it is very useful to predict and analysis the earth quake in the future. Each attenuation should be implemented in particular area in order to protect the building or infrastructure toward earth quake. These are several attenuation equation which are determined by earth quake s scientist and geologist. a. Attenuation by Dr. Schwarz (2007) Regression coefficients for Regression type I log (y ) = C 1 + C 2 M + C 3 log (r) + σ P M the magnitude (M w ) (r = (d 2 + h 2 0 ) d is the distance (either epicentral r e or fault distance r JB ) h 0 a coefficient to be determined by iteration P the uncertainty in the prediction For example (5 EQ in Aceh on 24 Dec 2004) EQ1 EQ2 EQ3 EQ4 EQ5 d (km) M NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 12

13 ROCK T [sec] C 1 C 2 C 3 h 0 σ STIFF SOIL T [sec] C 1 C 2 C 3 h 0 σ Regression coefficients for Regression type II log (y ) = C 1 + C 2 M + C 3 log (r) + C 4 S stiff + C 5 S soft + σ P M the magnitude (M w ) (r = (d 2 + h 2 0 ) d is the distance (either epicentral r e or fault distance r JB ) h 0 a coefficient to be determined by iteration P the uncertainty in the prediction For example (5 EQ in Aceh on 24 Dec 2004) EQ1 EQ2 EQ3 EQ4 EQ5 d (km) M T [sec] σ C 1 C 2 h 0 C 3 C 4 C S NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 13

b. Formula Murphy O Brein : PGA=10 (0,14 I + 0,24 M) 0,68(log d + 0,7 ) Where: PGA = Peak Ground Acceleration I = Intensity (MMI) M = Magnitude d = distance between EQ source and location c.

14 b. Formula Murphy O Brein : PGA=10 (0,14 I + 0,24 M) 0,68(log d + 0,7 ) Where: PGA = Peak Ground Acceleration I = Intensity (MMI) M = Magnitude d = distance between EQ source and location c. Boore, Joyner dan Fumal (1997) ln (PGA) = b 1 + b 2 (M W 6.0) + b 3 (M W 6.0) 2 + b 5 ln r + b V ln (V S /V A ) Where: r = (r 2 jb + h 2 ) r jb = distance (km) V S = average velocity of shear wave (m/sec) = 1070 cm/sec b 1 b 1SS = EQ s mechanism strike slip b 1RS = EQ s mechanism reverse slip b 1ALL = unpredicted EQ s mechanism d. Attenuation at Subduction Zone by Young et.al (1997) For rock: ln (PGA) = M W ln[r rup e 0.554Mw ] H Z t For soil: ln (PGA) = M W ln[r e 0.617Mw ] H Z t Where: PGA = peak ground acceleration (g), r rup = shortest distance to rupture (km) H = depth of EQ s source (km) Z t = type of EQ s source (0 for interface and 1 for intraslab) NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 14

This table and maps below are determined by the magnitude, distance,

15 These are a relationship between PGA value which is calculated by attenuation equation and Intensity level. This table and maps below are determined by the magnitude, distance, soil condition and source mechanism. NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 15

3. Ground Motion Data and Records (1): Collection and check of availability a. Elaboration of a representative database Indonesia has 64 seismic stations for 33 provinces.

The detail of each station could be seen in the map and table below In this report, I measuring the earth quake source to the nearest local station.

16 3. Ground Motion Data and Records (1): Collection and check of availability a. Elaboration of a representative database Indonesia has 64 seismic stations for 33 provinces. Aceh and Padang provinces have 1 seismic station in each province. The detail of each station could be seen in the map and table below In this report, I measuring the earth quake source to the nearest local station. For example, I m collecting data of earth quake in Aceh province where the local station of earth quake was installed in Banda Aceh (capital city of Aceh province) as the center. I decided to make boundary of distance is 450 km because it was one of the big earth quake in Aceh province which had large intensity in Banda Aceh. This method is also used to Padang Province, but the maximum distance is 400 km. NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 16

b. Decision of an Appropriate Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE) Most of Indonesia s geologists have been using attenuation equation from Boore, Joyner and Fumal.

Schwarz to create the response spectra in Aceh and Padang province because i do not have the soil coefficient from Boore, Joyner dan Fumal equation. c. Search for National or International Data Centers I ve been searching all possibilities to get earth quake digital data.

17 b. Decision of an Appropriate Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE) Most of Indonesia s geologists have been using attenuation equation from Boore, Joyner and Fumal. But, in this this report, i m trying to use the attenuation equation from Dr. Schwarz to create the response spectra in Aceh and Padang province because i do not have the soil coefficient from Boore, Joyner dan Fumal equation. c. Search for National or International Data Centers I ve been searching all possibilities to get earth quake digital data. It is necessary to create Time history graph and reliable response spectra. These are several websites that I have searched the earth quake data NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 17

This website has enclosed the location and time history which was measured at local earth quake station in Padang.

18 d. Search for Database and National Weak and Strong Motion Networks I ve found the important data from website about one of big earth quake in Padang. This website has enclosed the location and time history which was measured at local earth quake station in Padang. I believe, this is much reliable because the distance between earth quake source and station is not so far. NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 18

3.2 Ground Motion Data and Records a. Time Histories and Response spectra These are the time histories at 12 September 2007.

19 3.2 Ground Motion Data and Records a. Time Histories and Response spectra These are the time histories at 12 September The magnitude were 8.5, 7.9 and 7 consecutively, and then the maximum intensity in Padang was VIII. NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 19

This is the response spectra from time histories above. This is calculated by Matlab and normalized to PGA = 1.0. 4.

20 This is the response spectra from time histories above. This is calculated by Matlab and normalized to PGA = Application of ground motions models and tools to the study area Statistical Procedures following EC 8 approach (cf. Schott and Schwarz, 2004) a. Statistical Elaboration of database These are the relationship between Magnitude and distance of earth quake source in each province. There is a rectangular in each graph below. It is determined by making limitation of strong motion where the minimum magnitude is 5,5 and low motion is less than 5,5. NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 20

21 No Date Time (UTC) Earth Quake in Aceh Location Latitude (N 0 ) Longitude(E 0 ) Depth ( d) Magnitude Hi pocentrum (h) Epicentrum (d^2+ +h^2)^0.5 [km] [M] [km] [km] 1 26-Dec-04 00:58: '42.00"N 95 58'55.20"E Dec-04 04:21: '36.00"N 92 57'28.80"E Dec-04 09:39: '52.80"N 94 39'0.00"E Dec-04 01:25: '56.40"N 94 12'46.80"E Dec-04 15:06: '3.60"N 94 5'9.60"E Dec-04 19:19: '38.40"N 94 9'43.20"E Dec-04 02:00: '52.80"N 94 40'1.20"E Dec-04 01:21: '24.00"N 93 21'39.60"E Dec-04 12:04: '14.40"N 92 54'46.80"E Dec Dec Dec Dec-04 1:22:26 2:24:01 3:22:57 13:46: '15.60"N 7 7'12.00"N 5 49'8.40"N 5 6'46.80"N 93 59'6.00"E 92 31'58.80"E 95 5'31.20"E 96 9'43.20"E Dec Dec-04 3:26:46 21:06: '32.40"N 96 24'18.00"E 4 28'15.60"N 96 20'31.20"E Dec-04 3:42: '4.80"N 94 24'10.80"E Jun-06 19:59: '27.60"N 94 10'8.40"E Jan-05 8:27: '31.20"N 95 27'43.20"E Mar-05 17:29: '51.60"N 95 25'22.80"E NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 21

22 No Date Time (UTC) Location Earth Quake in Padang b. Prediction of site specific spectra using different GMPE These are the result of site specific spectra by using Dr. Schwarz s attenuation equation. Type I Depth (d) Magnitude Hipocentrum (h) Epicentrum (d^2+h^2)^0.5 Latitude (N 0 ) Longitude(E 0 ) [km] [M] [km] [km] 1 30-Sep-09 22:16: Dec-09 1:11: Aug-09 7:38: Sep-09 10:38: Aug-09 20:23: Sep-09 23:47: Aug-09 2:55: Aug-09 11:35: Aug-09 13:55: Aug-09 12:49: Aug-09 9:28: Aug-09 18:50: Aug-09 18:42: Aug-09 10:45: Sep-07 14:13:44 2 8'6.00"S 99 56'6.00"E Sep-07 16:59: '2.40"S 99 56'49.20"E May-07 19:29: '40.80"S 99 52'22.80"E Type II According to the graphs above, it can be clearly seen that the spectral acceleration for type I is higher than type II for each earth quake. NHMSE WS 09/10 (firdaus.firdaus@uni weimar.de; 91128) Page 22

THE EFFECT OF THE LATEST SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE TO MALAYSIAN PENINSULAR

JURNAL KEJURUTERAAN AWAM (JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING) Vol. 15 No. 2, 2002 THE EFFECT OF THE LATEST SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE TO MALAYSIAN PENINSULAR Assoc. Prof. Dr. Azlan Adnan Hendriyawan Structural Earthquake