The trajectory, structure and origin of the Chelyabinsk asteroidal impactor
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1 The trajectory, structure and origin of the Chelyabinsk asteroidal impactor Jiří Borovička Astronomical Institute, Academy of Sciences, Ondřejov, Czech Republic with the help of O. Popova(Moscow) and P. Brown (London, ON) HyMep, Erice, October 4, 2017
2 Feb 15, 2013, 3:20 UT Chelyabinsk and wide surroundings Extremely bright superbolide During local sunrise Damaging blast wave Massive dust trail
3 Chelyabinsk city More than million inhabitants Central Russia, south Ural
4 Damage by the blast wave Many windows broken ~ 1600 injured people Collapsed roof of a zinc plant
5 Dust trail in the atmosphere
6 Hole in ice, Chebarkul lake 70 km W of Chelyabinsk Diameter 8 m Impact observed by local fishermen and caught by a camera from distance Small meteorite fragments found on ice A 650 kg fragment recovered from the lake on October 16
7 Meteorites es under the snow South of Chelyabinsk Thousands of mostly small meteorites, one big (1,8 kg) Totally > 100 kg Many other meteorites found in spring, including a 4 kg piece Ordinary chondrites, type LL5
8 The importance of trajectory determination Inputs for modeling of the entry Heights of fragmentation (strength and structure of the body) Heights of energy deposition (damage assessment) Location of meteorites Pre-impact orbit (origin, search for pre-discovery images)
9 Available data MSG2 satellite (EUMETSAT, CHMI) Videos (~1000), including audio tracks Seismic records Infrasonic records from around the world Satellite observations US Government sensors Meteorological satellites Recovered meteorites Damage on ground See the video summary
10 Stellar calibration of videos
11 15 videos from 9 cities used Later extended to 29 videos
12 Trajectory computation Straight least squares method (Borovicka 1990) Additional corrections to account for Earth s s gravity 1850 bolide measurements on 15 videos Vertical deviation [km] Measurements video 1 video 2 video 14 Expected curvature Time [s] Note: Velocity (time) measurements needed to compute expected curvature
13 Trajectory and velocity Length of luminous trajectory: 272 km Observed height span: km Slope: 18.5 at the beginning 17 at the end Initial velocity: ± 0.13 km/s Terminal velocity: 3.2 km/s Bolide duration: 17 seconds Data from Borovička et al. (2013). Popova et al. (2013) obtained similar values.
14 Input data Fragmentation model Light curve (total bolide brightness as a function of time/height) Times of arrivals of secondary sonic booms Deceleration toward the end of trajectory Modeling Semi-empirical empirical fragmentation model Fitting the deceleration and major features of the light curve
15 Observed and modeled light curve (the brightest part) dust = sub kg fragments
16 Other models Hybrid model (Popova( et al. 2013) Fragment-cloud model (Wheeler et al. 2017) Both use combination of individual fragments and debris clouds to explain the light curve Strength models (Robertson et al. 2017) No ablation, disruption depends on strength model Quasi-liquid model (Shuvalov( et al. 2017) Single body with no strength
17 Popova et al. (2013) model observed Part of mass independent fragments Other part spreading debris clouds Fragmentation at P ~ MPa In total >96% of mass goes into debris clouds Lightcurve - black Model fits red and blue
18 Wheeler et al. (2017) Three disruptions into four almost equal fragments and a debris cloud Dust cloud forms 86% of mass at each disruption General model with limited number of free parameters
19 Robertson et al. (2017) Burst altitude depends on shear strength Strength < 5 MPa
20 Shuvalov et al. (2017) Hydrocode No strength, separated fragments formation not taken into account
21 Main features All models agree on ~95% loss of mass in form of dust and small fragments at heights km Numerous sonic booms suggest numerous individual fragmentation events Extent of the dust trail shows that dust loss started already at high altitudes
22 Light curve and source heights 100 of sonic booms Mesured normalized signal Mesured signal Beloreck (bolide) Kurgan (bolide) Tyumen (bolide) Nizhny Tagil (illumination) Break-up positions from sonic booms Mirnyi dynamic pressure ρv 2 : 0.7 MPa 2 MPa 4 MPa 5 MPa 10 MPa 18 MPa Height [km]
23 Extent of the dust trail starting at height ~70 km diameter 2 3 km between heights km volume ~600 km 3
24 No evidence for an early -30 fragmentation Approximate absolute magnitude h = 70 km Time [seconds after 3:20:20 UT]
25 Fragmentation sequence Intensive dust release (from near-surface) started at height ~ 70 km First fragmentation at ~ 45 km at P ~ 0.5 MPa (1% mass loss) Large scale disruption (95% mass loss) at km height with P = 1 51 MPa By 29 km object was boulders of sizes 1 3 m These boulders break again at km under P ~ MPa Lateral fragment speeds ~400 m/s Normal tensile strength of meteorites is ~ 50 MPa Fractures in the body decreased the bulk strength
26 Fragmentation and deceleration
27 Individually observed fragments
28 Motion of the fragments Height [km] F14 F13 F16 F15 F12 F7 F6 F5 F4 M HS2 F3 F11 TE F2 HS kg* hot spots kg* HS kg* Time [seconds after 3:20:20 UT] F1 * assuming spherical shape
29 Detail end of trajectory using wind from Verkhnee Dubrovo
30 A 24 kg meteorite recovered Found 240 m from the predicted location of fragment F3 December 1, 2013
31 Detail lake Chebarkul 2 km wind: F1 V. Dubrovo, K Kurgan, U UKMO model, G G2S model
32 Total energy Brown et al. (2013) Seismic Infrasound 600 US government sensor 530 Video-derived light curve >470 Popova et al. (2013) Infrasound, damage area kt TNT 1 kt TNT = 4, J
33 Comparison with other airbursts Bolide Tunguska (1908) Chelyabinsk (2013) Indonesia (2009) Marshall islands (1994) Energy 10 Mt 500 kt 50 kt 30 kt There was an unconfirmed ~1 Mt bolide over Indian Ocean in 1963 Largest thermonuclear explosion (USSR 1961) Mt. St. Helen volcano (USA 1980) Hiroshima bomb (1945) 50 Mt 20 Mt 15 kt
34 Numerical model of shock wave and trail evolution (from O. Popova) ~85 km S
35 (from O. Popova) ~85 km S
36 Map of glass damage with models of overpressure 7, 230 7, 230 buildings affected (Popova et al. 2013)
37 Orbit was similar to that of asteroid (1999 NC43) (Borovička et al. 2013)
38 Asteroid (1999 NC43) Diameter 2.2 km Spectral type Q (ordinary chondrite) Rotation period hours (tumbler) There is only ~1:10,000 chance that the proximity of Chelyabinsk orbit with an asteroid of this size is due purely to chance However, detailed spectral comparison does not confirm genetic relation (Reddy et al. 2015)
39 Spectral comparison (Reddy et al. 2015) Chelyabinsk meteorites LL type 1999 NC43 L type
40 Summary Chelyabinsk was extraordinary large: mass tonst ons, size 19 meters ers Relatively fragile body; disrupted at 30 km height Only small part of the original mass landed as meteorites Damage only from the blast wave. If the body penetrated deeper intact, the blast wave would be stronger Potential risk misidentification with military attack
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