COASTAL GEOLOGIC HAZARDS AND SEA-LEVEL RISE: CLIMATE CHANGE IN RHODE ISLAND

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1 COASTAL GEOLOGIC HAZARDS AND SEA-LEVEL RISE: CLIMATE CHANGE IN RHODE ISLAND Sakonnet Preservation Association Annual Meeting 9 July 2013 Jon C. Boothroyd 1,2 and Bryan A. Oakley 3 (1) Rhode Island Geological Survey (2) Department of Geosciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston RI (3) Environmental Earth Science Department, Eastern Connecticut State University, Willimantic, CT 06226

2 Summary for Rhode Island: Glacial Geology, Past and Present, the Underlying Key to Understanding Processes and Products Storms the Most Important Driver in Coastal Change Sea-Level Rise a Secondary Effect Shoreface Sediment Transport Not Well Understood at Present Future Major Storms Combined With Sea-Level Rise a Very Large Problem Accelerated Sea-Level Rise Resulting in Inundation also a Very Large Potential Problem RICRMC Planning for a 3-5 foot Rise by 2100 and a 1.0 to 1.5 foot Rise by 2050

3 You are here

4 GEOLOGIC SHORE ZONE TYPES Percent Beach Plain and Barrier Spit 25 Glacial Stratified Bluff 8 Till Bluff 23 Metamorphosed Sedimentary Bedrock 8 Igneous and Other Meta Bedrock 5 Discontinuous Bedrock 1 Shoreline Protection Structure 30

5 Glacial Till Deposits gravel, sand, silt

6 Till Bluff - Church Point, Little Compton Hehre FEB 2007, 14:00

7 Discontinuous Bedrock - Church Point, Little Compton Hehre 2007

8 Sakonnet Golf Club Area Shoreline Change Oakley, Hehre and Boothroyd 2013

9 Sakonnet Golf Club Area Revetment Discontinuous Bedrock Bing Maps 2008

10 S New England, E New York, Continental Shelf at LGM ~ 26,000 ybp RI You are here Map Generated By: BA Oakley and JC Boothroyd

11 Glacial Lakes Block Island and Rhode Island ~ 21,300 ybp You are here Charlestown Moraine Ice margins modified from: Dyke and Prest, 1987 Ridge, 2010; Goss, 1993 Smith, 2010 Oakley, 2012

12 QUATERNARY DEPOSITS OF RHODE ISLAND Granitic Till Upland Thick Stratified Deposits Narragansett structural basin Compact Till Upland EXPLANATION Stratif ied Material Till End Moraine - Till and Stratif ied Material You are here Miles Block Island Complex Kilometers

13 Eustatic Sea-Level Rise + Isostatic Rebound at Block Island RI Isostatic Rebound Relative Sea Level Laurentide Ice Laurentide Sheet? 2m Ice. 100yr Sheet? -1 2m. 100yr -1 Eustatic Sea Level Antarctic Ice Sheet? 2-5m. 100yr -1 Explanation Oakley and Boothroyd, July 2012

14 Narragansett Pier, RI Seawall Tropical Storm Irene 2011 Storms are the Driver Anonymous via N Vinhateiro, 28 aug 2011

15 Narragansett Pier Superstorm Sandy J Peabody via Facebook

16 Sediment Transport Pathways Charlestown Green Hill Barrier and Headland The Message: Many Directions and Processes Ninigret Lagoon Green Hill Lagoon Green Hill Headland Trustom Lagoon

17 Superstorm Sandy Charlestown Beach M Dowling S McCandless 30 Oct 2012

18 Superstorm Sandy Charlestown Beach Washover Fan Deposition M Dowling S McCandless 30 Oct 2012

19 Sandy Geologic Summary: Sandy a Tropical Extratropical Hybrid Significant Wave Height 31 feet at Inner Shelf Buoy; Max Recorded Wave Height 47 feet RI Received a Glancing Blow ; But Public Misconception by Some Believe it a 100 Year Event Greatest Geologic Change and Infrastructure Damage Since Hurricane Carol, 1954 Washover Fan Deposition an Underestimated Problem Shoreline Change Special Area Management Plan Needed to Better Prepare for Next Event Already Underway

20 Buoy SE of Block Island Significant wave height = 31ft Max wave height 47 ft

21 Superstorm Sandy Tropical-Extratropical Hybrid 29 October 2012 Newport Tide Gauge SET UP PREDICTED STORM SURGE data_menu.shtml?stn= %20newport,%20ri&type=tide+data

22 How High was the Water? Water Levels Newport, RI Maximum Water Level 9.46 Feet, 2.88 meters Above MHHW Carol Water Level Sandy Water Level 4.25 Feet, 1.30 meters Above MHHW Boothroyd and Hehre 2008 Why above MHHW? MHHW = 3.85 ft, m MLLW = 0.0 ft, 0.0 m Adapted from: s-cgibin/ngs_opsd.prl?pid=lw 0493&EPOCH=

23 Frequency? Next Month or Next Year Tropical Storm Irene Aug 2011 Superstorm Sandy Oct 2012 Hurricane Bob Aug 1991 Adapted from NOAA; USACE 1988; Hehre 2007

24 Charlestown Beach Superstorm Sandy Cha-Ez Profile RI DOT 30 Oct 2012

25 Measuring Shore Transects with: 2 Sticks and A String or, the Modified Emery Method -22cm Eric Woodward 12 Oct 2012

26 1938 Storm Surge + Waves 1938 Storm Surge Barrier Core 1978 Backshore Reservoir Active Berm MHHW / MHW

27 Beach Cycles RI Shore Boothroyd and Galagan, 1999

28 Cha-Ez Profile - Charlestown Barrier - Post Sandy Washover Fan Deposition S McCandless 30 Oct 2012

29 Post Sandy Pre-Sandy FEMA Dune Erosion Protocol

30 Charlestown Beach Blizzard 1978 No Berm JC Boothroyd

31 Barrier - Beach and Foredune Zone - 35 Year Reset Post Sandy Blizzard 1978

32 Elevation Difference USACE Post Sandy and 2011 USGS LiDAR DEMs Washover Fan Deposition Charlestown Barrier Foredune Removal Cha-Ez Profile DRAFT FIGURE PRELIMINARY RESULTS

33 Pre-Sandy Quonochontaug Barrier Conservation Land Washover Fan Deposition Bousquet and Son Aerial Views

34 Post-Sandy Quonochontaug Barrier Conservation Land Washover Fan Deposition Bousquet and Son Aerial Views

35 Charlestown Beach, RI Storm Surge Overwash With Washover Fan JC Boothroyd Feb 1985

36 Superstorm Sandy Charlestown Beach Washover Fan Deposition S McCandless M Dowling 30 Oct 2012

37 Elevation Difference USACE Post Sandy and 2011 USGS LiDAR DEMs Charlestown Barrier Washover Fan Deposition Cha-Ez Profile Foredune Removal DRAFT FIGURE PRELIMINARY RESULTS

38 Washover Fan Deposition - Charlestown Beach Cha-Ez Profile 31 Oct

39 Washover Fan Removal Charlestown Beach M Dowling S McCandless 30 Oct 2012

40 Charlestown Beach, RI Hurricane Bob 1991 Washover Fan Deposition Removal is a Bad Idea. Barriers Naturally Retreat Landward and Upward Aug 1991 JC Boothroyd

41 A General Coastal Barrier Model for Rhode Island Very Transgressive

42 Napatree Barrier Westerly, RI Little Narragansett Bay Watch Hill Hehre and Boothroyd, 2007

43 Napatree Barrier Shoreline Change Map 1939 Sound Side 2004 Sound Side -71.6m 1939 Ocean Side 2004 Ocean Side Hehre and Boothroyd, 2007

44 Napatree Barrier Shoreline Change Map 1939 Sound Side 2004 Sound Side -71.6m 1939 Ocean Side 2004 Ocean Side Hehre and Boothroyd, 2007

45 Napatree Barrier Shoreline Change Map 1939 Sound Side 2004 Sound Side -71.6m 1939 Ocean Side 2004 Ocean Side Hehre and Boothroyd, 2007

46 South Kingstown, RI Town Beach An Eroding Glacial Bluff Shore BA Oakley

47 South Kingstown, RI Town Beach An Eroding Glacial Bluff Shore Boardwalk Pilings RI DOT 30 Oct 2012

48 Headland Erosion Glacial Stratified Bluff 28m Rasmussen, Oakley and Boothroyd 2013

49 Briggs Marsh Lagoon and Briggs Barrier Hehre and Boothroyd 2007

50 Briggs Barrier: Shoreline Change Oakley, Hehre and Boothroyd 2013

51 A Brief Look at Climate Change and the Future Shore Zone of Rhode Island

52 Carbon Dioxide - CO 2 Levels A Cause for Concern Now 399+ ppm

53 Co2now.org

54 HEIGHT NOW Adapted from: sltrends_station.shtml?stnid= %20newport,%20ri Boothroyd 2013

55 6.0 ft VR Max 184 cm 4.5 ft VR A1F1 136 cm VR B1 99 cm 1.3 ft Height above NOW

56 Greenland Outlet Glaciers Change from Polythermal to Warm Based means that the calving front is unstable A Key to Future Sea-Level Rise

57 Brathwaite, 2002

58 Ninigret Green Hill Lagoons Orthophoto Today

59 Ninigret Green Hill Lagoons 2100 Inundation 5 ft 200 ft Barrier Migration Projected

60 Matunuck Shoreline Change South Kingstown Town Beach Based on Net shoreline movement Oakley and Boothroyd 2013

61 Matunuck Shoreline Change South Kingstown Town Beach Based on Net shoreline movement Oakley and Boothroyd 2013

62 Matunuck Headland South Kingstown 1938 Hurricane + 5 ft Sea Level Rise Roy Carpenter s Beach Matunuck Beach Road Oakley and Boothroyd 2013

63 Matunuck Headland South Kingstown 1938 Hurricane + 5 ft Sea Level Rise + Erosion Roy Carpenter s Beach Matunuck Beach Road Oakley and Boothroyd 2013

64 Briggs Marsh Lagoon Projected Inundation 1938 Hurricane + 5 ft Sea Level Rise 14.5 feet above MHHW Oakley and Boothroyd 2013

65 Sakonnet Point Projected Inundation 1938 Hurricane + 5 ft Sea Level Rise 14.5 feet above MHHW Oakley and Boothroyd 2013

66 Wickford Marketplace In-Place Inundation The Bathtub Ring Today 28 Oct 2011 MelissaDevine9

67 End of Presentation

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