Global GMPEs. Caribbean Regional Programme Workshop Port of Spain, Trinidad & Tobago, May 2 nd 2011

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1 Caribbean Regional Programme Workshop Port of Spain, Trinidad & Tobago, May 2 nd 2011 Global GMPEs Marco Pagani Executive Committee Hazard Coordinator, GEM Foundation Slides based on C. Di Alessandro presentation - GEM Review Meeting December 2010

2 PROJECT MANAGEMENT Principal investigators / Leading Institutions Yousef Bozgornia (PEER, Berkley) There is a project coordination committee consisting of four international experts (Abrahamson, Akkar, Bozorgnia, Erdik), who coordinate the tasks, and communicate with GEM s Executive Committee and the Regional Programs. and a large group of international experts In total there are 26 international experts participating in the project (from South Africa, Russia, China, Latin America etc). Combined, they have extensive GMPE expertise in various parts of the world. Project duration 24 months

3 PROJECT OUTCOMES Main Products/Goal The main goal of the project is to select a suite of GMPEs that can be used at both the global and regional level for hazard and risk assessment, by using a collaborative approach.

4 TASKS " Task 1: Definition of a consistent strategy of modelling ground motion. a. consistency in model parameters b. consistency in site parameters " Task 2: Compilation and critical review of GMPEs " Task 3: Selection or derivation of a Global Set of GMPEs. " Task 4: Inclusion of near-fault effects " Task 5: Database of Recorded Waveform " Task 6: Specifications for compilation of a global database of Soil Classification.

5 PROJECT COORDINATION COMMITTEE Abrahamson - Akkar Bozorgnia - Erdik TASK 1: Define a Consistent Strategy to Model Ground Motion TASK 1a Akkar (Chair) Campbell Cotton / Douglas Silva TASK 1b Stewart (Chair) Boore Campbell Erdik Silva TASK 2: Compile and Critically Review GMPEs Cotton and Douglas (Co-Chairs) Abrahamson Akkar Boore Di Alessandro TASK 3: Select or Derive a Global Set of GMPEs WG Campbell (Chair) Abrahamson Bommer Boore Bozorgnia Di Alessandro Erdik Scherbaum Extended WG Akkar Arefiev Cheng Chiou - Cotton / Douglas Fajfar - McVerry Midorikawa - Midzi Molas - Saragoni Shoja - Silva Somerville Stewart - Wang

6 CONSORTIUM and ORGANIZATION CHART PROJECT COORDINATION COMMITTEE Abrahamson - Akkar Bozorgnia - Erdik TASK 4: Include Near-Fault Effects Baker (Chair) Chiou Erdik Somerville Silva TASK 5: Build a Database of Recorded Waveforms Akkar (Chair) Arefiev Boroshek Di Alessandro McVerry Midorikawa TASK 6: Design the Specifications to Compile a Global Database of Soil Classification Stewart (Chair) Boore Campbell Erdik Silva

7 IMPORTANT INFORMATION The contract was signed on November 16 th, 2010 (kick-off meeting to be organized soon!) Changes in the Coordination Committee: " J. Bommer has been substituted by S. Akkar: The latter is now also Chair of Task 1.a (consistency in model parameters) Changes in the Working Groups: " J. Bommer has been substituted by Cotton & Douglas: who are currently Chairs of Task 2 (compile and critically review GMPEs) Addition in the Working Groups: " G. McVerry will work on the GMPEs for Volcanic Areas as an additional sub-task within Task 2 (compile and critically review GMPEs)

8 TASK 1 STRATEGY FOR GROUND MOTION MODELLING Task 1a: Consistency in Model Parameters. Magnitude Style of faulting classification Use of ground motion in terms of geometric mean vs maximum component Approach; e.g., empirically-based models versus simulation-based Task 1b: Consistency in site parameters Define a consistent set of site parameters to be used Recommend simplification of GMPEs for regions with less data On going activities Duration: 8 months. Completion: 8 months after project s start Learn from successful past experience (NGA-West) Interact with other regional or international projects to ensure consistency.

9 TASK 2 Compile and review large set of GMPEs for Shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions Stable continental regions Subduction regions (subduction zone interface vs. intraslab) Volcanic earthquakes Duration: 8m. Completion: 8m after project s start On going activities Douglas REPORT on existing GMPEs ( incl.) Harmonization of approaches towards GMPEs SELECTION or EXCLUSION (SHARE, PEGASUS, NGA-EAST, BC-HYDRO) Validation of GMPEs developed for limited area (for instance Vrancea Romania) Checking NGA Models against regional data in high seismicity areas other regional or international projects to ensure consistency.

10 TASK 3 Task 3: Selection or derivation of a Global Set of GMPEs For each tectonic region, a set of GMPEs will be selected to be - Applicable to a wide range of magnitude, distance etc - Compatible with the regional data Duration: 18m. Completion: 24 m after project s start Selected GMPEs (coefficients, parameters definitions and coded equations) will be organized in various files (which format?) On going activities GUIDELINES to compute RESIDUALS (procedural consensus and software development) Review GMPEs EVALUATIONS literature and schemes TEST PERFORMANCE against REGIONAL DATASET

11 TASK 5 Task 5: Database of Waveforms Data already collected by PEER for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions (NGA-West) and for stable continental regions (NGA-East): is available online (through PEER website) Newly collected data from other regions Magnitude Duration: 18 months. Completion: 24 months after project s start On going activities 5 Previous Data New Data Distance (km) " COLLECTION of PEER DATABASE " COMMUNICATION (and future exchange) with SHARE project (EUROPE) " ESTABLISHING CONTACTS with OTHER REGIONS such as Africa, Russia and Australia " Seeking for synergy with REGIONAL PROGRAMMES within GEM

12 TASKS 4 AND 6 Task 4: Inclusion of near-fault effects A working group will provide recommendations regarding correction of GMPEs for near-fault effects, including directivity and directionality Latitude Landers, CA, EQ Lucerne Valley 136 cm/sec Rupture propagation Forward directivity region Epicenter 34 Joshua Tree 43 cm/sec Task 6: Specifications to Compile Soil Database Backward directivity region Longitude " A working group of experts will write specifications for collection of the soil data " No soil data will be collected under this task WILL START IN THE NEXT MONTHS, RESPECTIVELY

13 RELEVANT ISSUES Cooperation with other projects Cooperation with other Consortia and Regional Programmes on GMPE standards and use remains a key element