The Seismic Hazardscape of New Zealand
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1 The Seismic Hazardscape of New Zealand Mark Stirling Professor of Earthquake Science
2 Introduction Plate tectonic setting of New Zealand Seismic hazards for University of Otago campuses Kaikoura earthquake investigations
3 Plate Tectonics New Zealand lies on the boundary of the Pacific and Australian plates The plate boundary is expressed by a zone of active earthquake faults, seismicity, and crustal strain
4 Seismicity Moderate to high rates of crustal (shallow) seismicity along the plate boundary, and at depth under the North Island and Fiordland Relatively low levels of seismicity in Auckland/Northland and Otago/Southland Low seismicity rates in the Canterbury Plains pre 2010 High seismicity rates in Wellington
5 Earthquake Faults
6 Geodetic strain Log Shear Strain max(-2.5,log10 (shear strain))- with Principal Contraction Directions
7 Wellington The greater Wellington region has had two major earthquakes (M>7) in historic time, but there are many other faults that could produce major earthquakes close to the city Wellington Fault Ohariu Fault Pukerua Fault Hikurangi subduction zone
8 Wellington area faults
9 Wairarapa Fault and M Wairarapa earthquake
10 Wellington Ground Motions Wellington experienced significant damage from recent Cook Strait and Kaikoura earthquakes The city is not earthquake resilient (cf Christchurch) A major local earthquake will have catastrophic impacts Anna Kaiser, GNS Science
11 Christchurch Seismically quiet until the M Darfield earthquake and Canterbury earthquake sequence.
12 Christchurch Christchurch has probably had it s worst-case earthquake: Direct hit on the city in the form of the M6.2 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake Other major earthquakes are expected to occur at greater distances from the city: Southern Alps foothills and north Canterbury (c.50km distance), and Alpine Fault (>100km distance) The new Christchurch will be a more earthquake resilient city than before: building stock, hazard guidelines, and community Good ground conditions in vicinity of Otago University campus
13 Dunedin Low seismicity area. Akatore and Titri Faults are located close to the city. May have had it s worst case events in the time period yrs BP: Akatore Fault study However, building stock is old and fragile: regional earthquakes will be damaging
14 Dunedin 13 earthquake faults within 100 km of Dunedin city Fiordland and Alpine Fault earthquakes could also produce significant damage to the city s old built environment
15 Auckland and Invercargill Lowest seismicity areas of the country, and closest active faults >50km distant. Hard ground conditions at Auckland campus: good news for seismic hazard Soft ground conditions in Invercargill: susceptible to strong shaking and ground damage from major Alpine Fault and Fiordland earthquakes
16 Auckland and Invercargill
17 Earthquake Hazard Hazard rank by city: 1.Wellington 2.Christchurch 3.Dunedin 4.Auckland/Invercargill Tentative Risk rank by city: 1.Wellington 2.Dunedin or Auckland 3.Christchurch 4.Invercargill
18 The Mw November 2016 Kaikoura Earthquake Location and aftershocks Up to Friday 25 th November Two M6+ aftershocks (largest M6.3) occurred within two hours of the mainshock. Focal Mechanisms Mainshock thrust mechanism Aftershock mechanisms thrust and strike-slip John Ristau Epicentre M7.8 Stephen Bannister
19 Observed fault ruptures and amount of displacement (m)
20 InSAR Radar satellites orbiting at 700 km measure the displacement of the Earth s surface by measuring the change in the path length between two radar acquisitions. Each contour represents 11.5 cm of ground motion either towards or away from the satellite Ian Hamling
21 Sigrun Hreinsdottir et al (preliminary 6/12/16) Coseismic geodetic measurements Hmax: 6m; Vmax: 2m Vertical Horizontal
22 Ground Motions: Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) PGA confirmed up to 1.3g (Ward station) Ground shaking significantly lower in Christchurch than Wellington due to northward rupture from epicentre and distribution of fault slip Anna Kaiser
23 Humps-Leader Fault Fault Active fault trace AFDB +Barrell et al Surface rupture 2012 NSHM fault source
24 The Woodchester Wall Photo: Kate Pedley Photo: Andy Nicol
25 Hundalee Fault Active fault trace AFDB +Barrell et al Surface rupture 2012 NSHM fault source
26 Photo: Mark Stirling Photo: Julie Rowland NE trend thrust, ~ 1m vertical 3.7m right-lateral, and 2m vertical slip at coast Photo: Mark Stirling
27 Papatea Fault Papatea fault Active fault trace AFDB + NIWA 2016 Surface rupture 2012 NSHM fault source
28 Western coastal trace (left-lateral, reverse) Photo: Robert Langridge Photo: Julian Thomson Photo: Robert Langridge
29 Kekerengu Fault Papatea fault Active fault trace AFDB + NIWA 2016 Surface rupture 2012 NSHM fault source
30 Trench 1 Photo: Tim Little Trench 1, as of Nov 20, 2016 (looking NE) Drone Photo Courtesy Julian Thomson, GNS
31 Coastal (Photo: Pilar Villamor) uplift High tide Seal snoozing in former subtidal zone Stranded crayfish Low tide tide: subtidal kelp exposed Photo: Pilar Villamor Photos: Kate Clark
32 Needles Fault Papatea fault Fault rupture Fault rupture Source: NIWA Active fault trace AFDB + NIWA 2016 Surface rupture 2012 NSHM fault source
33 Landslides Initial estimates of 80, ,000 landslides triggered ~5 >1,000,000 m 3 Identified ~50 landslide dams
34 Association with huge landslides close to the coast Photo: Robert Langridge/Julie Rowland Seaward Landslide (previously known as cow island or stranded cow landslide) Photo: Robert Langridge/Julie Rowland
35 Conclusions Ranking of Otago campuses in order of decreasing earthquake hazard: 1=Wellington, 2=Christchurch, 3=Dunedin, 4=Auckland/Invercargill Tentative earthquake risk ranking: 1=Wellington, 2=Dunedin or Auckland, 3=Christchurch, 4=Invercargill Kaikoura earthquake was a complex event that ruptured multiple faults; some fully, and some partially Kaikoura earthquake will challenge our modelling of future earthquake hazard
36 Acknowledgments The landowners for generously allowing us to undertake the reconnaissance work during difficult times GeoNet, EQC, GNS Science and LINZ for essential data Images and funding from GNS Science, University of Otago, University of Canterbury, University of Auckland, Victoria University of Wellington, NIWA, University of Southern California, Humboldt State University, and PG&E.
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