Climate Change and Global Warming
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1 Climate Change and Global Warming Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia ETP 401 Guest Lecture University of Virginia April 12, 2005
2 `The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate ' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), Second Assessment Report, 1996
3 `There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activity' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (United Nations), Third Assessment Report, 2001
4 THE EMPIRICAL RECORD
5 Surface Temperature Changes Climatic Research Unit ( CRU ), University of East Anglia
6 Surface Temperature Changes Shaded: 20 th century Boxes: since mid 19 th century
7 Surface Temperature Changes Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001
8 1998 Global Temperature Pattern
9 EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ( ENSO ) Substantial interannual climate variability associated with ENSO, but decadal variability is also evident as well. The recent decadal trend towards El Nino conditions could be natural or anthropogenic. Multivariate ENSO Index ( MEI )
10 NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION Negative Phase Positive Phase
11 NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION This NAO trend could be Anthropogenic
12 PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION
13 Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation There is evidence of multidecadal natural variability in the North Atlantic ocean circulation
14 Greenhouse Gases and CO 2 Warming Related?
15 TREE RINGS
16 CORALS
17 ICE CORES
18 VARVED LAKE SEDIMENTS
19 HISTORICAL DOCUMENTS
20 RECONSTRUCTED GLOBAL TEMPERATURE PATTERNS
21 Reconstructed Surface Temperatures Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001
22 Moberg, A., Sonechkin, D.M., Holmgren, K., Datsenko, N.M., Karlen, W., Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from lowand high-resolution proxy data, Nature, 433, (2005).
23 Oerlemans, J., Extracting a climate signal from 169 Glacier Records, Science (express), March 3 (2005).
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36 CLIMATE MODELS
37 The climate represents a coupled system consisting of an atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and cryosphere
38 General Circulation Models take into account the full threedimensional structure of the atmosphere and ocean
39 GCMs do a fairly good job of describing the seasonal cycle in surface temperature This alone doesn t guarantee that they should do a good job in describing climate change! January Temp (observations) January Temp (model)
40 Modeled Internal Natural Variability Observations
41 INFLUENCE OF EXTERNAL FACTORS
42 The climate is governed by external factors, including the intensity of solar output and volcanic aerosols and greenhouse gas concentrations
43 Solar Variations
44 The climate is governed by external factors, including the intensity of solar output and volcanic aerosols and greenhouse gas concentrations
45 Volcanoes
46 The climate is governed by external factors, including the intensity of solar output and volcanic aerosols and greenhouse gas concentrations
47 The climate is governed by external factors, including the intensity of solar output and volcanic aerosols and greenhouse gas concentrations
48 GREENHOUSE EFFECT?
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50 ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECT?
51 Greenhouse Gases and CO 2 Warming Related?
52 SIMULATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
53 CLIMATE FORCINGS Volcanism Solar Natural
54 Simulated Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001 Forced Model simulations
55 CLIMATE FORCINGS Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases Industrial Aerosols
56 Simulated Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001 Forced Model simulations
57 Simulated Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001 Forced Model simulations
58 OBSERVED ANNUAL MEAN TREND Knutson, T.R., T.L. Delworth, K.W. Dixon, and R.J. Stouffer, Model assessment of regional surface temperature trends ( ), Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, , 1999.
59 Inconsistent with Natural unforced Variability Inconsistent with Greenhouse+ Sulphate Forcing
60 Jones, P.D., Mann, M.E., Climate Over Past Millennia, Reviews of Geophysics, 42, RG2002, doi: /2003rg000143, 2004.
61 Future Surface Temperatures Trends? Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001
62 ``RealClimate is a commentary site on climate science by working climate scientists for the interested public and journalists. We aim to provide a quick response to developing stories and provide the context sometimes missing in mainstream commentary. Gavin Schmidt, Michael Mann Eric Steig, William Connolley, Ray Bradley, Stefan Rahmstorf, Rasmus Benestad, Caspar Ammann, Thibault de Garidel
63 CONCLUSIONS Recent global surface temperatures are unprecedented this century, and likely at least the past millennium It is difficult to explain the recent surface warming in terms of natural climate variability Recent surface warming is largely consistent with simulations of the effects of anthropogenic influence on climate Uncertainties remain regarding the precise sensitivity of the climate to forcing, and the regional details of expected climate changes
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