Modeling strategies within the ACQWA Project

Transcription

1 Modeling strategies within the ACQWA Project Martin Beniston Head of the Geneva Environment Insitute The University of Geneva, Switzerland Waterloo, March 17, 2009

2 Cryosphere Ecosystems Hydrology

3 Hydrology Cryosphere Ecosystems Catastrophes Energy

4 Hydrology Cryosphdre Ecosystems Catastrophes ENVIRONMENT Energy SOCIETY Tourism Agriculture Infrastructure

5 Modeling strategy: Inputs Climate: observed Climate:GCM+RCM Remote-sensing Storage and distribution Socio-economic

6 Modeling strategy: Physically-based models Downscaling from GCMs High-resolution RCMs Glacier models Snow models Land-use models Distributed hydrological models Biosphere models Extremes events

7 Modeling strategy: Impacts Biosphere/forests Aquatic ecosystems Tourism Energy Agriculture Land-use change Assessment of conflicts of interest: implications for governance Adaptation strategies Policy response: influence on impacts? Natural hazards

8 RCMs

9 Cascade nesting Altitude [m] 60 km

10 Cascade nesting Altitude [m] 5 km60 km

11 Cascade nesting Altitude [m] 5 km60 km 1 km

12 Simulation of a winter windstorm (December 1999; CRCM2 model) S. Goyette, University of Geneva Goyette et al., 2003: J. Geophys. Res.

13 Detail of windstorm over southern Sweden m/s S. Goyette, University of Geneva Nilsson et al., 2007: Global and Planetary Change

14 Extremes

15 Changes in summer precipitation (june-july-august) (Differences in % between and ) (HIRHAM RCM; A-2 Scenario) Seasonal precipitation Precipitation > 50 mm / day Christensen and Christensen, Nature, % change

16 Number of evets beyond 99% quantile Changes in extreme (B2) (A2) precipitation in the Alps (HIRHAM RCM) events 127 events 141 events Beniston, 2006, Geophys. Res. Letters 0 Winter Spring Summer Autumn

17 Consequences for floods

18 Snow

19 Mean winter precipitation [mm/day] Possible shifts in snow duration for a projected climatic change in the Alps Säntis: Current climate Arosa: Current climate Säntis: Future climate Arosa: Future climate Mean winter temperatures [ C] Snowpack duration [days] Beniston et al., Theor. And Appl. Clim., 2003

20 Altitude [m] Shifts in snow volume according to altitude Current climate, moist winters Current climate, dry winters +4 C, moist +4 C, dry Total volume [10 9 m 3 ]

21 Ice

22 Simulation of the retreat of the Aletsch Glacier,

23 Vegetation

24 Vegetation changes, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

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30 Hydrology

31 Modeling strategies for water Distributed catchment response to climate scenarios Subgrid variability of the response of rivers the local/point scales: very detailed modelling of processes that are characterized by significant small scale dynamics and nonetheless have a considerable impact on processes at a larger scales on socio-economic aspects

32 Hydrological models TOPKAPI model (ETH-Zurich) FEST model (Politecnico di Milano) CHyM model (ICTP, Trieste, and l Aquila, Italy) Model characteristics: raster based (function of DEM availability and catchment scale, approx. range 50 to 500 m grid size) physically based/oriented continuous in time with hourly resolution explicit in the soil/and component internally consistent They produce distributed output scenarios for: snow and ice accumulation/melting interception evaporation/evapotranspiration infiltration/soil moisture/groundwater storage streamflow

33 Links between partners and Work Packages

34 Waterloo, March 17, 2009