KIRSTY STYLES - EARTHQUAKE RISK SCIENTIST

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1 Aspen Opinion 1 ASPEN OPINION STRESS STATE IN JAPAN TWO YEARS ON KIRSTY STYLES - EARTHQUAKE RISK SCIENTIST Kirsty Styles PhD, summarizes key academic papers on the topic of Coulomb Stress Transfer (CST) following the Tohoku quake two years ago. View this article online at The M9.0 Tohoku earthquake released a substantial amount of energy and significantly altered the stress state of the crust in the surrounding area. There have been many earthquakes in and around the source region since 11 March 2011, including two damaging, shallow crust onshore quakes (M6.7 and M6.4), which were more than 400 km from the epicentre (Figure 1). FIGURE 1 - EPICENTRES OF THE MAINSHOCK (M9) AND THREE LARGE AFTERSHOCKS (M>7) Figure 1: Black and white stars are the epicentres of the mainshock (M9) and three large aftershocks (M>7) that occurred within 40 minutes of the mainshock. Orange and yellow stars denote the epicentres of two, onshore, damaging, shallow, crustal earthquakes (Ishibe et al., 2011). Green circles denote quakes occurring within seven days of the mainshock (M 3 and depth 100 km). As at 1 April 2013, there had been 108 aftershocks with M 6 and 7 earthquakes with M 7 ( The dashed box is the region in which Ishibe et al. (2011) calculated CST.

2 Aspen Opinion 2 STRESS DEFINITIONS Dynamic triggering occurs when quakes are triggered by transient stress perturbations due to the passage of large seismic waves from a quake. Examples include remote triggering at distances of many fault lengths, or triggering caused by the passage of surface waves. Coulomb stress transfer, or static triggering, is based on the idea that instantaneous and permanent stress changes near a source region (within 1 2 fault lengths) can cause quakes. Quasi-static triggering is also caused by permanent stress changes, but involves a time delay (Miyazawa, 2011). Stress is measured in bar or MPa (megapascals). Stress changes as a consequence of CST are often not more than a few bars (1 bar = 0.1 MPa, which is roughly atmospheric pressure at sea level). It s not clear why such small stress changes cause such large changes in seismic activity. However, laboratory experiments that investigate how and why an earthquake rupture starts, as well as how and why a rupture continues, are beginning to shed light on why such small stress changes have such a strong influence on seismicity (Stein, 1999). Smaller earthquakes that follow a mainshock are triggered by two main processes: dynamic triggering and static triggering. Dynamic triggering occurs when quakes are triggered by transient stress perturbations due to the passage of seismic waves from a large quake. Static triggering is also known as static Coulomb stress transfer or CST which can be used to monitor how stress transfers and provide information regarding the probability of successive events. Analysis of quakes where CST calculations have been successful in highlighting regions of increased hazard can help us understand better the current state of stress in Japan and perhaps forecast future events. Two such examples - included in the Appendix, namely Sumatra and Sichuan - suggest that large quakes can occur within a source region and its surroundings long after a megaquake has occurred. Retrospective and prospective studies Most scientific studies of CST are retrospective. In other words, they look at whether earthquakes occurred as a consequence of CST. Unfortunately, studies use different initial models and focus on different regions, which means results vary and are difficult to compare. Some studies are prospective and attempt to estimate how much closer to rupture a fault has been brought. Prospective studies are more pertinent to the reinsurance industry as they help to estimate how the level of hazard in a region has changed. Retrospective studies are, however, still necessary to test the efficacy of the models. Unfortunately, there is still no accepted way of converting a change in stress to a change in probability of an earthquake, although some strategies have been suggested (Dieterich, 1994; Stein et al., 1997; Matthews et al., 2002; Hardebeck, 2004). So even if there is a robust and reliable retrospective model that can be used prospectively, the process remains fraught with uncertainty. Papers published post Tokyo As (re)insurers, we are particularly keen to develop our understanding of the impact of CST on future earthquake probabilites in Japan. The following discussion covers ten scientific papers that have been published since the Tohoku quake on the topic of CST. It is important to remember that these studies have not been undertaken with (re)insurance or the estimation of risk in mind. Converting research findings emerging post Tohoku (including CST) into a useable, quantifiable, current perception of risk remains a challenge for the industry. Aspen believes that CST is a relevant underwriting concern for the foreseeable future and we will continue to incorporate adjustments in our underwriting process. CST studies post Tokyo Many studies since the Tohoku quake have tested whether selected aftershocks were triggered by CST. For example, Toda et al. (2011) found retrospectively that 5 of the 7 largest aftershocks were triggered by CST, being brought closer to failure by 0.3 bars. Using the same tests, they found prospectively that large sections of the Japan Trench, the outer trench slope faults, the Kanto fragment beneath Tokyo and the Itoigawa-Shizuoka tectonic line (ISTL) were also brought 0.3 bars closer to failure (see the red regions in Figure 2). Sato et al. (2012) carried out similar tests, using a different initial model, on 81 aftershocks occurring within 25 days of the Tohoku mainshock. They reported that 85% of these aftershocks were found to be positively stressed, also supporting the validity of the CST hypothesis. The Off Boso section of the Japan Trench and Sagami Trough (Figure 2) is of particular interest to the (re)insurance industry given its proximity to Tokyo. Toda et al. (2011) calculated a CST gradient of 10 bars in the north to 0.3 bars in the south, in this region. They also suggest that if the entire Off Boso section were to rupture (100 km 180 km) - although there s been no such recorded event to date - it would be capable of producing a M8.1 quake.

3 Aspen Opinion 3 FIGURE 2 - STRESS IMPARTED BY THE M9.0 MAINSHOCK AND M7.9 AFTERSHOCK TO SURROUNDING ACTIVE FAULTS Figure 2: Stress imparted by the M9.0 mainshock and M7.9 aftershock to surrounding active faults (Toda et al., 2011). Note the locations of the Japan Trench, Nankai Trough and ISTL. Hiratsuka and Sato (2011) calculated CST on several faults and also found retrospectively that the increased seismic activity after the mainshock is explained by large, positive CST (10 50 bar). They then prospectively found that areas to the north and south of the Tohoku source region, where other large interplate quakes could occur, are occupied by a positive CST (1 bar). Ishibe et al. (2011) and Yoshida et al. (2012) focussed their attention on the Kanto region that includes the Greater Tokyo Area and the prefectures Gunma, Tochigi, Ibaraki, Saitama, Tokyo, Chiba, and Kanagawa. There was a remarkable increase in seismic activity in this region following the Tohoku quake despite its distance from the source region. Both studies found retrospectively that stresses were loaded in the Kanto region after the Tohoku quake, which may have caused the increased seismicity. For example, Ishibe et al. (2011) found that of the 30,694 aftershocks in the Kanto region, 19,000 showed an increase

4 Aspen Opinion 4 in CST. Based on this retrospective forecast by CST, they prospectively forecast an increase in seismicity (at publication date of Sept 2011) in south-western Ibaraki and northern Chiba prefectures, as well as in the shallow crust in the Izu and Hakone regions (see figure 1). Shallow seismic activity also increased significantly inland and west of the source region, after the Tohoku quake. Okada et al. (2011) found a positive Coulomb stress change on all fault planes where this increased seismic activity occurred. This observation, using events that occurred within one month of the main event, again suggests that CST triggered the post-mainshock activity. Toda and Enescu (2011) have written comprehensively about prospective CST modelling in Japan. They used a CST model in Japan for 1 and 3 year forecasting. Figure 3 shows their prospective results for 2009, using data from 1891 to Their model has been submitted to CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Prediction, org/home) for testing and it may have subsequent potential for use in short-term earthquake forecasting. FIGURE 3 - SPATIAL SUMMATION OF CST CAUSED BY 67 LARGE QUAKES SINCE 1891 (TO 2008) Figure 3: Spatial summation of CST caused by 67 large quakes since 1891 (to 2008). Dashed line indicates plate boundary (Toda and Enescu, 2011).

5 Aspen Opinion 5 Toda and Stein (2013) is the most recent paper to be published on CST in Japan and focuses on Tokyo. The authors observed a ten-fold increase in seismicity rate in the Kanto region immediately following the Tohoku quake, and a decrease to a new rate after one year that was still three times the pre-tohoku rate. They found that these seismicity observations can be explained by CST and it is one of only a few papers to estimate the time-dependent probability of large quakes in the Kanto region beneath Tokyo (Figure 4). The calculations produce a 17% probability of a M 7 quake beneath Tokyo before 10 March 2018, which is 2.5 times the probability had the Tohoku quake not occurred. FIGURE 4 - STRESS IMPARTED TO FAULTS SURROUNDING TOKYO Figure 4: Stress imparted to faults surrounding Tokyo. The Kanto fragment, which is the southernmost portion of the Japan Trench, and easternmost portions of the Sagami Trough, are brought closer to failure (Toda and Stein, 2013).

6 Aspen Opinion 6 Enescu et al. (2012) also attempts to convert a stress change into a probability change. They found the increase in seismicity around the Izu Peninsula, near the Tokai gap (Figures 5 and 6), to be a consequence of CST, with the largest stress increase measuring about 1 bar. The computed stress changes on the Tokai gap are positive, but small (<0.1 bar). The aftershocks have caused additional, but also minor stress increases. These results imply that the stress-state on the Tokai plane has not changed significantly; although seismic activity in neighbouring areas can bring secondary stress increases. The probability gain for the next Tokai event associated with the small stress change is 0.2%. It s important to keep in mind that even moderate aftershocks can cause positive stress increases, so subsequent significant seismicity south of the Tohoku rupture region (including M 6 quakes around the Izu Peninsula or inside the subducting Philippine Sea Plate) could impact the stress state on the Tokai subduction plane. FIGURE 5 - MAP SHOWING THE FAULT AREA OF THE M9 TOHOKU QUAKE Figure 5: Map showing the fault area of the M9 Tohoku quake with the slip distribution and the seismogenic zone of interplate megathrust quake along Nankai Trough. This seismogenic zone can be divided into three segments; Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai (green areas). The Nankai Trough is a source region capable of producing giant quakes. It produces M 8 quakes at intervals of years. The Tonankai and Nankai segments ruptured in 1944 and 1946 respectively, but the Tokai segment did not rupture and is still locked. All three segments ruptured in 1854 and The violet rectangle indicates the study region of figure 6. The three stars are the epicentres of the Tohoku quake (M9.0), its largest aftershock (MJMA7.7) and the Shizuoka earthquake (MJMA6.4). Red triangles denote active volcanoes. The map area is shown as a blue rectangle in the inset (Enescu et al., 2012).

7 Aspen Opinion 7 FIGURE 6 - CHANGE IN CST DUE TO TOHOKU QUAKE (ON QUAKES FROM JAN 2003 TO DEC 2011) Figure 6: Change in CST due to Tohoku quake (on quakes from Jan 2003 to Dec 2011). Colour of each event is coded with its corresponding change in CST. Inset map shows area A enlarged. Green circles are aftershocks of the Tohoku quake (Enescu et al., 2012). Dynamic triggering studies post Tokyo Not all studies suggest that CST is responsible for the seismic activity post Tohoku. Miyazawa (2011) found that earthquakes triggered soon after the Tohoku quake spread over Japan in a south-westerly direction and coincided with the strong seismic waves from the quake. The distribution of quakes in time and space was consistent with the large amplitude surface waves that extended 1,350 km from the epicentre. There were no observations of triggered earthquakes in the northern direction. Dynamic stress changes toward the north were comparable with, or smaller than, those necessary for triggering to the southwest. Coulomb stress changes were one to two orders smaller than dynamic stress changes at remote distances, indicating that in the first 1.5 months after the event, CST was not the main mechanism of the triggering. A question of timing Many studies of mainshock-aftershock sequences show the importance of CST; however, it seems that the role of CST could be more significant for quake occurrence after one month of the mainshock. Earthquakes during, or shortly after, the passage of surface waves highlight the importance of dynamic triggering. The question of timing is an important one and many scientists think that delayed events could also be a consequence of dynamic rather than static stress triggering. At this year s Seismological Society of America conference, there were many discussions about CST, dynamic triggering and combinations of different methods to estimate aftershock locations and rates. It is a topic that remains at the forefront of seismological research.

8 Aspen Opinion - Appendix 8 APPENDIX: EXAMPLES OF CST - SUMATRA AND SICHUAN Sumatra The M9.1 Sumatra earthquake in December 2004 was followed by a M8.7 quake four months later (March 2005); a M8.5 event two and a half years later (September 2007); a M7.5 quake five and a half years later (June 2010); and a M8.6 quake more than seven years later (April 2012). CST was shown to affect the location of triggered events following mainshocks. McCloskey et al. (2005), for example, suggested that the 2004 Sumatra event had increased the likelihood of a triggered event immediately to the south of the region that ruptured, which is where the M8.7 March 2005 event occurred. Sichuan CST estimated increased hazard in the region of the April 2013 M6.6 Ya an, Sichuan quake in China, as a consequence of the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan quake. Three CST papers were published on increased hazard as a consequence of the devastating M7.9 quake that resulted in losses of about US$100 billion. The quake ruptured the Longmen Shan fault zone (LMSH). There have been five M6 7 quakes in the LMSH since the 14th century, but none larger than M7 were recorded in the last millennium. Toda et al. (2008), Parsons et al. (2008) and Nalbant and McCloskey (2011) used stress changes and observed background seismicity to forecast the rate and distribution of future damaging quakes. Toda et al. (2008) estimated earthquake probability in the region for M>6 quakes to be in the range of 57% to 71%. This is twice the probability for the decade before the Wenchuan quake. Parsons et al. (2008) calculated that Coulomb stress had increased south of the main shock rupture, in particular on the fault near Ya an. Nalbant and McCloskey (2011) estimated that stress loaded on some faults in the region could be up to 2.5 times greater in the 22 year period following the 2008 quake. The M6.6 quake that struck Ya an on Saturday 20 April 2013 occurred 85 km SSW of the epicentre of the Wenchuan quake, in a region estimated by all three studies to have increased hazard.

9 Aspen Opinion - References 9 REFERENCES Dieterich, J. (1994), A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering, J. Geophys. Res., 99, Enescu, B., Aoi, S., Toda, S., Suzuki, W., Obara, K., Shiomi, K. and Takeda, T. (2012), Stress perturbations and seismic response associated with the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake in and around the Tokai seismic gap, central Japan, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L00G28, doi: /2012gl Hardebeck, J. (2004), Stress triggering and earthquake probability estimates, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B04310, doi: /2003jb Hiratsuka, S. and Sato, T. (2011), Alteration of stress field brought about by the occurrence of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0), Earth Planets Space, 63, Hirose, F., Miyaoka, K., Hayashimoto, N., Yamazaki, T. and Nakamura, M. (2011), Outline of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw 9.0) - Seismicity: foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and induced activity, Earth Planets Space, 63, Ishibe, T., Shimazaki, K., Satake, K. and Tsurukoka, H. (2011), Change in seismicity beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area due to the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, Earth Planets Space, 63, McCloskey, J., Suleyman, S., Nalbant, S. and Steacy, S. (2005), Indonesian Earthquake: Earthquake risk from coseismic stress, Nature, 434, 291, doi: /434291a. Matthews, M., Ellsworth, W. and Reasenberg, P. (2002), A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 92, Miyazawa, M. (2011), Propagation of an earthquake triggering front from the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L23307, doi: /2011gl Nalbant, S. and McCloskey, J. (2011), Stress evolution before and after the 2008 Wenchuan, China earthquake, Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett. 307, , doi: /j. epsl Okada, T., Yoshida, K., Ueki, S., Nakajima, J., Uchida, N., Matsuzawa, T., Umino, N., Hasegawa, A. and Group for the aftershock observations of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (2011), Shallow inland earthquakes in NE Japan possibly triggered by the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, Earth Planets Space, 63, Parsons, T., Ji, C. and Kirby, E. (2008), Stress changes from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and increased hazard in the Sichuan basin, Nature, 454, , doi: / nature Sato, T., Hiratsuka, S. and Mori, J. (2012), Coulomb stress change for the normal-fault aftershocks triggered near the Japan Trench by the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Earth Planets Space, 64, Stein, R. (1999), The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence, Nature, 402, , doi: / Stein, R., Barka, A. and Dieterich, J. (1997), Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering, Geophys.J.Int, 128, Toda, S. and Enescu, B. (2011), Rate/state Coulomb stress transfer model for the CSEP Japan seismicity forecast, Earth Planets Space, 64, Toda, S., Lin, J., Meghraoui, M. and Stein, R. (2008), 12 May 2008 M = 7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17305, doi: /2008gl Toda, S., Lin, J. and Stein, R. (2011), Using the 2011 Mw 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake to test the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis and to calculate faults brought closer to failure, Earth Planets Space, 63, Toda, S. and Stein, R. (2013), The 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku oki earthquake more than doubled the probability of large shocks beneath Tokyo, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, doi: / grl Yoshida, K., Hasegawa, A., Okada, T., Iinema, T., Ito, Y. and Asano, Y. (2012), Stress before and after the 2011 great Tohoku-oki earthquake and induced earthquakes in inland areas of eastern Japan, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L03302, doi: /2011gl

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