MOLDAVIAN DAM'S RATING IN SEISMIC RISK CLASSES - A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH

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1 International Symposium on Strong Vrancea Earthquakes and Risk Mitigation Oct. 4-6, 7, Bucharest, Romania MOLDAVIAN DAM'S RATING IN SEISMIC RISK CLASSES - A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH I. A. Moldovan, E. Popescu, A. O. Placinta, T. Moldoveanu ABSTRACT The paper is adverted to a complex activity of research concerning the settlement of the seismic risk class in which each big dam, located in the North Eastern Part of Romania, is framed, to catalogue and pursuit their behavior in time by the meaning of ultramodern statistical and structural investigation of these buildings and of their sites, as well, offering an extremely precious instrument for the risk evaluation that these buildings represents in the event of a major earthquake. The seismic risk assessments are very important to specialized organizations, as these studies reveal (physically meaning) the neuralgic points of certain sites that contain hydrotechnical constructions having large accumulation capacity, representing real centers of potential disasters when stroked by natural catastrophes and having large socio-economical impact. Collapsing of hydroenergetic facilities would have negative consequences under all aspects: social, economical, and ecological. To forestall such catastrophes, two categories of measures are necessary: (i) achievement of studies regarding the seismicity and evolution of the seismicity within the area, in order to detect abnormalities related to temporal evolution of the systems, abnormalities that can be considered as forerunners of major earthquakes; (ii) hazard and seismic risk assessment for the sites in which hydro power plants are located and the dissemination of the information in the decision media. The analysis that we propose implies: () geometrical definition of all seismic sources affecting the region, () estimation of the maximum possible magnitude, () estimation of the frequency magnitude relationship, (4) estimation of the attenuation law, (5) computing PSH and, finally, (6) rating all dams from central part of Romania into seismic risk classes. SEISMIC SOURCES CHARACTERISTICS Activities to Diminish seismic risk in a zone belong to the category of those generically named Seismic Protection, understanding by this the totality of countermeasures it may be took to diminish the effects of an earthquake, the number of casualties and economical loses. Any seismic protection activities must try to identify the distribution of the vulnerability in every society and even on the world plane. This implies not only the necessity of studying the existence of natural seismic sources in the area of the hydro energetic achievements but also the necessity of studying of adjacent seismic sources. For this, it is necessary to point out and to delimit the seismic areas from the Romanian territory, which directly affects the sites of the dams and systems of facilities which provide water storing and transportation and hydroelectric power plants. The seismogenic sources that affect the North Eastern part of the Romanian territory are the local crustal sources: Moldova crustal source; the regional crustal sources: Vrancea (VR); Predobrogean Depression (PD) source ; Barlad Deppression (BD) and the regional intermediate source: Vrancea (VI). In the following lines we will present only the most important sources: VI, VR and PD. Vrancea subcrustal source is the most important seismogenic zone of Romania. It represents an interesting and uncommon seismotectonic area in the context of a complex intra-continental collision process (the junction of the East-European plate with the Moesian and Intra-Alpine sub plates), characterized by an extremely confined focal active volume at National Institute for Earth Physics, POBOX MG, 775, Bucharest, Romania, iren@infp.ro Geotec Consulting Ltd, Bucharest, Romania

2 84 I. A. Moldovan et al. intermediate depths (6 km) and a less well-defined crustal source in the foreland area of the Southeastern Carpathians. The Vrancea seismogenic source is mostly controlling the hazard level in the Central part of Romania and strongly affects the strategic objectives situated here, even if they are located at relatively large distance away from the epicenter (5- km or even more). It represents a complex and particular seismic region with a continental convergence of at least three major tectonic units: East European Plate, Intra-Alpine and Moesian Subplates [Constantinescu et al., 976]. The seismic activity is concentrated at intermediate depths (6- km), in a nearly vertical and extremely narrow subducting slab. It is a challenging task to explain how -5 major shocks (M W >7) occur per century in such a small focal volume. The seismic moment rate is high (approximately.x 9 N.m/year) and makes Vrancea zone the most concentrated seismic zone of Europe. Vrancea crustal source The seismic activity in Vrancea in the crustal domain is located in front of the Southeastern Carpathians arc, spread over a stripe area delimited to the north by the Peceneaga-Camena fault and to the south by the Intramoesian fault (Fig. ). The seismicity is more diffuse than for the subcrustal source and consists only in moderate-magnitude earthquakes (M W =5.5) generated in clusters localized in the eastern part (seismic sequences of Râmnicu Sarat area) and northern part (swarms in Vrâncioaia area). The catalog contains a single earthquake of M W = 5.9 occurred on March, 894, with magnitude estimated from historical information (possibly overestimated). The rate of the seismic moment release, M o = 5. x 5 Nm/year, is four order of magnitude less than the moment rate characteristic for the Vrancea intermediate-depth domain. Predobrogean Depression zone belongs to the southern margin of Predobrogean Depression marked by Sfantul Gheorghe fault (Fig. ). Only moderate-size events are observed (M W =5.) clustered especially along Sfantul Gheorghe fault. The fault plane solutions reflect the existence of the extensional regime of the deformation field. In our opinion this consistently reflects the affiliation of the Predobrogean Depression to the Scythian platform tectonic unit. The rate of the seismic moment release is M o =.8 x 5 Nm/year. SOURCE GEOMETRY The first step in the determination of probabilistic hazard consists in defining the geometry of the source that affects the site of interest. Geometry of the Vrancea subcrustal source The geometry of the Vrancea subcrustal source together with the epicentral distribution of the earthquakes with M w > 5. occurred between January 9 and June 6 (98 events) are plotted in Fig.. To define the source geometry only earthquakes generated after 95 were considered, for which more complete instrumental information is available. The location coordinates and magnitudes are taken from the Romanian catalog (Oncescu et al., 998). The average annual number of earthquakes with magnitude greater than 5 is.78 earthquakes/year.

3 International Symposium on Strong Vrancea Earthquakes and Risk Mitigation 85 Geometry of the Vrancea crustal source Fig. presents the geometry of the source in the Vrancea crust. The location coordinates and magnitudes are taken from the Romanian catalog (Oncescu et al.,998). Except one historical earthquake (March, 74, M W =5.) there are no other crustal earthquakes with M W =4.7. The average number of earthquakes with magnitude greater than is.5 earthquakes/year. However, this value is not reasonable since the catalog is not complete for the events produce before 9. Geometry of the Predobrogean Depression source The geometry of the Predobrogean Depression source is represented in the Fig.. The magnitude domain of earthquakes is M w [., 5.]. The average number of earthquakes with magnitude greater than is.6 earthquakes/year The Geometry of the Barlad Depression source for events with M w >.5 occurred between 87 and 5 is presented in Fig.. The red circles are earthquakes with M W =4.9 and M W =5., and the red star represents the largest earthquake occurred in the zone with M W = Zalau Iasi Oradea Arad Deva Timisoara Sibiu Brasov Focsani PD Resita Rm.Valcea Buzau Tg-Jiu 45 Targoviste Ploiesti 45 Pitesti EV Severin Cluj Fig. 5 5 Ukraine Craiova Tg-Mures Bulgaria 6 6 Vrancea zone Bucuresti 7 7 Botosani Suceava Bacau 8 8 Vaslui BD 9 9 Legende Izvorul Muntelui local zone Izvorul Muntelui dam M>.-local events M [5., 5.5]-local events M=5.6, the greatest local event BD-zone M>.5, event of BD M [4.8, 5.4], events of BD M=5., the greatest event of BD PD-zone M>.9 events of PD M[5., 5.], the greatest events of PD zone EV crustal zone M>., events of EV Vrancea subcrustal zone M [6., 7.7] events of Vrancea subcrustal zone Cities THE MAXIMUM EXPECTED MAGNITUDE The maximum magnitude instrumentally determined for Vrancea earthquakes is M w = 7.7 (M GR =7.5), associated to the major earthquake of November 94. The largest magnitude in the Romanian catalog Romplus (Oncescu et al., 998) is M w = 7.9 (M GR =7.7) for the earthquake of 8. We consider this value as the maximum possible magnitude for the Vrancea region with errors of the order of. The maximum observed magnitude for the Vrancea crustal zone is M W = 5.9 for the event occurred on st of March 894. To evaluate the distribution function for the maximum magnitude we assume a triangle function with an error of. ATTENUATION LAW It is essential, for a probabilistic estimation of the seismic hazard, to constrain as much as possible how the energy of the seismic waves attenuates when propagating from the source to the site. For the Vrancea subcrustal focus Southeastern Romania path, we adopt the attenuation relation for intensity and acc. proposed by Moldovan I.A. and.

4 86 I. A. Moldovan et al. The attenuation relation necessary to compute the peak ground acceleration in Northeastern Romania sites for all the crustal earthquakes is that proposed by Musson (999): log a max = M S - log R -.7 R where a max is measured in g (gravitational acceleration) and R is in km. For intensity attenuation relations we have used the Zsiros relation. RECURRENCE FREQUENCY - MAGNITUDE LAW The frequency-magnitude distributions for Vrancea subcrustal region, Vrancea crustal area, Birlad Depression and Predobrogean Depresion are represented in Figs. a, b, c, d and by equations ()-(4): log N cum = -(.8 ±.)M W + (6.47±.8), M W [5.,7.7], R =.99 and sd=.7 () log N cum = -(.8 ±.)M W + (4.7±.6), M W [.9, 5.9], R =.94 and sd=.5 () log Ncum = -(.75 ±.5)M W + (4.5 ±.), M W [.5, 5.5], R =.99 and sd=. () log N cum = -(.65 ±.6)M W + (.55±.6), M W [., 5.5], R =.97 and sd =.5 (4) PSHA AND DAMS RATING IN SEISMIC RISK CLASSESS Dam owners and regulators must ensure that dams are safely operated and present no risk to the public in case of an earthquake. While most old or new dams in recognized seismic regions have been evaluated and analyzed for seismic loads, dams located in areas of moderate or infrequent seismicity have been given less systematic attention. In such cases, owners of many dams or officials in charge of dam safety programs may consider comparative assessment of the seismic risk associated with their dams and establish priorities, as needed. Various risk factors and weighting points can be used to approximately quantify the total risk factor: (TRF) of any dam [Bureau, ]. The TRF depends on the dam type, age, size, the downstream risk potential, and the dam vulnerability, which depends on the seismic hazard of the site. The TRF is expressed as: TRF = ( CRF + HRF + ARF ) + DHF PDF The dam structure influence is represented by the sum (CRF + HRF + ARF) of capacity, height, and age risk factors. The downstream hazard factor (DHF) is based on population and property at risk. The capacity risk factor (CRF) and the height risk factor (HRF) indicate that high dams or large reservoirs can cause significant flooding. The age rating factor (ARF) expresses that old dams are often more vulnerable than modem dams because of possible deterioration, lack of maintenance, use of obsolete modes of construction (concrete masonry or hydraulic fill), insufficient compaction, reservoir situation, or insufficient foundation treatment. The overall downstream hazard factor (DHF) is defined as: DHF = ERF + DRI, where the downstream evacuation requirements factor (ERF) depends on the creature population at risk. The downstream damage risk index (DRI) is based on the value of private, commercial, industrial, or government property in the potential flood path. These factors should preferably be obtained from a combination of detailed dam breach, inundation mapping, and economic studies. The DHF should be updated whenever new information becomes available or when the dam is repaired, modified, or raised. When it is not cost-effective to obtain the ERF and DRI from detailed studies, the downstream hazard potential rating of the NID can be used to obtain a substitute value of the DHF.

5 International Symposium on Strong Vrancea Earthquakes and Risk Mitigation 87 number of earthquakes a. 5 4 log (cumulative number of earthquakes) Vrancea subcrustal zone Magnitude b. 5 5 Vrancea crustal zone c. 4 Birlad Depresion zone M compl = M W a magnitude b. c Fig.. M=.5 Predobrogean Depresion zone d d The vulnerability rating is a function of the site-dependent seismic hazard and observed performance of similar dams, as defined by a predicted damage factor: PDF=.5 x f(esi), where: ESI is the severity index. The parameters obtained in the previous chapters are input parameters for the seismic hazard assessment [McGuire, 976] used for the implementation of the above described theory in antiseismic protection in the case of special constructions and strategic objectives, such as, in our case, the most important dams situated in the area. CONCLUSIONS This work is a useful tool for the assessment of the seismic risk and implementation of antiseismic protection measures in the case of special constructions and strategic objectives, such as, in our case, the dams from the northeastern part of Romania. REFERENCES Bureau, G.J.(), Dams appurtenant facilities.in: Earthquake Engineering Handbook, pg Ed. by CRC Press LLC. Constantinescu L.P., I. Cornea and V. Lazarescu, (976), Recent seismic informations on the lithosphere in Romania, Rev. Roum. Geol. Goephys., Geog., Ser Geophys.,, -4. Mc Guire, R.K., 976. FORTRAN Computer Program for Seismic Risk Analysis. US Dept. of the Interior, Geological Survey, Open-File Report, 76-67, 9pp. Moldovan, I.A., B.D., Enescu, C., Ionescu,, Predicting peak ground horizontal acceleration for Vrancea large earthquakes using attenuation relations for moderate shoks, Romanian Journal of Physics., Vol. 45, Nos.9-, P Moldovan, I.A., (7), Statistical methods and models in seismology, PhD Thesis, pp5, Morosan Publishing House, Bucharest, Romania(in Romanian). Musson, R. M.W., Generalised seismic hazard maps for the Pannonian Basin using probabilistic methods, Pure Appl. Geophys.., 57m, 47-69,. Oncescu, M.C., Marza, V.I., Rizescu,M., Popa,M.(998).The Romanian earthquake catalogue between , in Vrancea Earthquakes: Tectonics, Hazard and Risk, Natural Hazards.

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