1.7.2 ENSO ENSO (Mantua et al., 1997) ENSO Mantua et al.

Transcription

1 1.7.2 ENSO 1.5 ENSO ENSO ENSO (Mantua et al., 1997) ENSO Mantua et al

2 / / Arctic Oscillation: AO Yasunaka and Hanawa, Trenberth and Hurrell /77 Pacific Decadal Oscillation: PDO Minobe, North Pacific Index: NPI Miller et al., 1994; Yasuda and Hanawa, 1997 Nakamura et al., Nitta and Yamada, 1989; Gu and 124

3 Philander, and Zhang, /77 ENSO Knutson and Manabe, 1998; Nitta and Yamada, 1989 Yukimoto et al., 2000; Jin, 2001 ENSO Tanimoto et al., 1993 Gu and Philander 1997 Hasegawa Hanawa, 2003 Luo and Yamagata, 2001 Latif and Barnett 1994, 1996 Deser et al., Schneider et al., 1998, 1999; Nonaka et al., Kleeman et al Deser et al., 1999 McPhaden 125

4 Schneider et al Arctic Oscillation: AO Thompson and Latif and Barnett Wallace , 1996 AO 20 1 EOF Frankignoul et al., AO 2000 Northern Annular Biz et al., 1998 White Mode: NAM et al., 1997 Minobe 2000 Baldwin and Dunkerton, 1999; Kuroda and Kodera, 1999 : North Atlantic Oscillation: NAO NAO 126 NAO

5 AO AO AO hPa AO Thompson and Wallace 2000 AO NCEP/NCAR AO 2004 Thompson et al., 2000 Hurrell, 1995 NAO AO NAO AO NAO AO AO AO AO 0.66 AO NCEP/NCAR , 2004 AO 127

6 AO/NAO AO NAO NAO 40 Shindell et al., 2001 Hurrell et al., 2004 Xie and Tanimoto, 1998 AO/NAO AO/NAO Goldenberg et al., 2001 AO/NAO AO/NAO NAO Rodwell et al., 1999 AO AO Shindell et al., 2001; Gillett et al., 2003; Osborn,

7 ENSO / Mitchell and Wallace ENSO ENSO ENSO Tziperman et al., 1998; Galanti and Tziperman, Meinen and McPhaden / Yukimoto and Kitamura 2003 ENSO Neelin et al., 2000 Neelin et al Jin 1997, 2001 "recharge oscillator" ENSO ENSO Kleeman and Power, 1994, Penland and Sardeshmukh, 1995 ENSO 2 ENSO 129 Blanke et al., 1997 ENSO

8 Baldwin, M.P. and T.J. Dunkerton, 1999 Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., 104, Blanke, B., J.D. Neelin and D. Gutzler, 1997 Estimating the effect of stochastic wind stress forcing on ENSO irregularity. J. Climate, 10, Bitz, C.M., D.S. Battisti, R.E. Moritz and J.A. Beesley, 1996 Low-frequency variability in the arctic atmosphere, sea ice, and upperocean climate system. J. Climate, 9, Deser, C., M.A. Alexander and M.S. Timlin, 1996 Upper ocean thermal variations in the North Pacific during , J. Climate, 9, Deser, C., M.A. Alexander and M.S. Timlin, 1999 Evidence for a wind-driven intensification of the Kuroshio Current Extension from the 1970s to the 1980s. J. Climate, 12, Frankignoul, C., E. Kestenare, N. Sennechael, G. de Coetlogon and F. D'Andrea, 2000 On decadal-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions in the extended ECHAM1/LSG climate simulation. Clim. Dyn., 16, Galanti, E. and E. Tziperman, 2000 ENSO's phase locking to the seasonal cycle in the fast-sst, fast-wave, and mixed-mode regimes. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, Gillett, N.P., M.R. Allen and K.D. Williams, 2003 Modelling the atmospheric response to doubled CO 2 and depleted stratospheric ozone using a stratosphere-resolving coupled GCM. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 29, Goldenberg, S.B., C.W. Landsea, A.M. Mestas-Nuñez and W. M. Gray, 2001 The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications. Science, 293, Gu, D.F. and S.G.H. Philander, 1997 Interdecadal climate fluctuations that depend on exchanges between the tropics and extratropics, Science, 275, Hasegawa, T. and K. Hanawa, 2003 Decadal-scale variability of upper ocean heat content in the tropical Pacific. Geopys. Res. Lett., 30, doi: /2002gl Hurrell, J.W., 1995 Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation. Science, 269, Hurrell, J.W., M.P. Hoerling, A. Phillips and T. Xu, 2004 Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part I: Assessing determinism. Clim. Dyn., Jin, F.-F., 1997 An equatorial recharge paradigm for ENSO, Part I, Conceptual model. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, Jin, F.-F., 2001 Low-frequency modes of tropical ocean dynamics. J. Climate, 14, pp.80 Kleeman, R. and S.B. Power, 1994 Limits to predictability in a coupled ocean- atomosphere model due to atmospheric noise. Tellus, 46A, Kleeman, R., J.P. McCreary and B.A. Klinger, 1999 A mechanisms for generating ENSO decadal variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, Knutson, T.R. and S. Manabe, 1998 Model assessment of decadal variability and 130

9 trends in the tropical Pacific Ocean. J. Climate, 11, Kuroda, Y. and K. Kodera, 1999 Role of of the pentadecadal variability over the North Pacific. Prog. Oceanogr., 47, Nakamura, H., G. Lin and T. Yamagata, planetary waves in the stratospheretroposphere 1997 Decadal Climate variability in the coupled variability in the northern hemisphere winter. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, Latif, M. and T.P. Barnett, 1994 Cause of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America. Science, 266, Latif, M. and T.P. Barnett, 1996 Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America: dynamics and predictability. J. Climate, 9, Luo, J.J. and T. Yamagata, 2001 Long-term El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like North Pacific during recent decades. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, Neelin, J.D., F.-F. Jin and H.-H. Syu, 2000 Variations in ENSO phase locking. J. Climate, 13, Nitta, T and S. Yamada, 1989 Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 67, Nonaka, M, S.-P. Xie and K. Takeuchi, 2000 Equatorward spreading of a passive tracer with application to North Pacific interdecadal variation with special emphasis on the temperature variations. J. South Pacific, J. Geophys. Res., 106, Mantua, N.J., S.R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J.M. Oceanogr., 56, Osborn, T.J., 2004 Simulating the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: the roles of internal Wallace and R. C. Francis, 1997 A Pacific variability and greenhouse gas interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production., Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, McPhaden, M.J. and D. Zhang, 2002 Slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation in the upper Pacific Ocean, Nature, 415, Mitchell, T.P. and J.M. Wallace, 1996 ENSO seasonality: versus J. Climate, 9, forcing. Clim. Dyn., 22, Penland, C. and P.D. Sardeshmukh, 1995 The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 8, Pierce, D.W., T.P. Barnett and M. Latif, 2000 Connections between the Pacific Ocean tropics and midlatitudes on decadal time scales. J. Climate, 13, Rodwell, M.J., D.P. Rowell and C.K. Folland, Miller, A.J., D.R. Cayan, T.P. Barnett, N.E Oceanic forcing of the wintertime Graham and J.M. Oberhuber, 1994 North Atlantic Oscillation and European Interdecadal variability of the Pacific climate. Nature, 398, Ocean: model response to observed heat flux and wind stress anomalies. Clim. Dyn., 9, Schneider, N., A.J. Miller, M.A. Alexander and C. Deser, 1999 Subduction of decadal North Pacific temperature anomalies: obserbations Minobe, S., 2000 Spatio-temporal structure and dynamics. J. Phys. 131

10 Oceanogr., 29, Schneider, N., S. Venzke, A.J. Miller, D.W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, C. Deser and M. Latif 1999 Pacific thermocline bridge revisited. Geophys. Res. Lett., Schneider, N., A.J. Miller and D.W. Pierce, 2002 Anatomy of North Pacific decadal variability. J.Climate, 15, Shindell, D.T., G.A. Schmidt, R.L. Miller and D. Rind, 2001 Northern Hemisphere winter climate response to greenhouse gas, ozone, solar, and volcanic forcing. J. Geophys. Res. 106, Thompson D.W.J. and J.M. Wallace, 1998 The Arctic Oscillation signature in the winter time geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, Thompson, D.W.J., J.M. Wallace and G.C. Hegerl, 2000 Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part II: Trends. J. Climate, 13, Trenberth, K.E. and J.W. Hurrell, 1994 Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Clim. Dyn., 9, Tziperman, E., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, Y. Xue and B. Blumenthal, 1998 Locking of El Nino's peak time to the end of the calendar year in the delayed oscillator picture of ENSO. J. Climate, 11, White, W.B., J. Lean, D.R. Cayan and M.D. Dettinger, 1997 Response of global upper ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance. J. Geophys. Res., 103, Xie, S.-P. and Y. Tanimoto, 1998 A pan- Atlantic decadal climate oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, , (206) 1-31 Yasuda, T. and K. Hanawa, 1997 Decadal changes in the mode waters in the midlatitude North Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 27, Yasunaka, S. and K. Hanawa, 2002 Regime shifts found in the Northern Hemisphere SST field, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan., 80, Yukimoto, S., M. Endoh, Y. Kitamura, A. Kitoh, T. Motoi and A. Noda, 2000 ENSO-like interdecadal variability in the Pacific Ocean as simulated in a coupled general circulation model. J. Geophys. Res., 105, Yukimoto, S. and Y. Kitamura, 2003 An investigation of the irregularity of El Nino in a Coupled GCM. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 81,