P32 Temporal and Spatial Variations of b-value in the Western Anatolia

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1 P32 Temporal and Spatial Variations of b-value in the Western Anatolia E. Bayrak* (Karadeniz Technical University) & Y. Bayrak (Karadeniz Technical University) SUMMARY The b-value calculated in time and the spatial variations for different regions of the Western Anatolian (WA). The whole examined area is divided into 15 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The data used in this work was taken from different sources and catalogues such as TURKNET, International Seismological Centre (ISC), Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) and The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for instrumental periods. The technique of maximum likelihood method is applied. Temporal variations of b-value can be used to prediction of major earthquakes. Spatial distributions of b-value point out which fault system how has stress level. In order to determine the evolution in time of b-value, we used a moving-window technique. To evaluate spatial distribution of b-value, we used 0.50 grid interval. We plotted b-value in time and identified b-value decreases before the major earthquakes in 15 seismic regions. We have found which fault system has higher stress level from spatial distributions of b-value. The values smaller than 0.70 are related to the Aegean Arc and Eskisehir Fault. The highest values are related to Sultandağı, Aliağa and Sandıklı Faults. The observed values in the graben sytems are approximately equal to 0.90.

2 Introduction The Western Anatolian (WA) is one of the most seismically active and rapidly prolongating areas of the Eastern Mediterranean region (e.g., Bozkurt 2001). Aegean Subduction Zone at the south where the African Plate subducting beneath the Anatolian Plate and N-S trending extensional zone are main tectonic features of this area. Active normal faults related to grabens and horsts and strike-slip faults are dominant in WA. In the present study an attempt has been made to look into the temporal and spatial variations of b- value, which is used as a precursor to identify the plausible high stress region, as a decreasing b-value for earthquakes located within a seismogenic volume under consideration is found to correlate with increasing effective stress levels prior to major shocks (Kanamori 1981). Many quantitative techniques have been applied over the years to present the geographical distribution of earthquake hazard in several regions of the Earth and Turkey (e.g. Tsapanos, 2001; Bayrak et al., 2005). Turkey is situated in a very active seismic region, so the earthquake hazard in Turkey has therefore been widely studied using a number of different techniques and seismic quantities (e.g. Kayabalı and Akın, 2003; Bayrak et al., 2008). The goal of the present study was to assess the concordance between b-with time and prior to major shocks, determining which fault system how has stress level connected with b-value for 15 regions in WA. Method and Data The data used in this study was taken from different sources and catalogues such as TURKNET, International Seismological Centre (ISC), Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) and The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) and provided in different magnitude scales. The catalogues contain the origin time, different magnitudes scales (m b - body wave magnitude, M S -surface wave magnitude, M L -local magnitude, M D -duration magnitude, and M W -moment magnitude), epicenter and depth information of earthquakes. Turkey earthquake catalogue, obtained from the Boğaziçi University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), starts from 1974 until The earthquakes from 1900 to 1974 come from the International Seismological Centre (ISC) and instrumental catalogue of KOERI. The earthquake catalogue used in this study is being compiled by Erdik et al. (1999). Bayrak et al. (2009) developed some relationships between different magnitude scales in order to prepare a homogenous earthquake catalogue from different data sets. We prepared a homogenous earthquake data catalogue for M S magnitude using these relationships. A complete understanding of the instrumental seismicity, tectonics, geology, paleoseismology, and other neotectonic properties of the considered region are necessary for an ideal delineation of seismic source zones. In this study, we divided Western Anatolian (WA) into fifteen seismic zones for detailed study as seen in Figure 1. The epicentral distributions of the instrumental earthquakes are shown in Figure 1 on different seismic source zones in WA. The b-value in Gutenberg and Richter s relation:, where a and b are constants. The constant b is the slope of the log-linear relation and is known as b- value (Scholz 1990; Wiemer and Wyss 1997). The b-value of any region can be computed using several methods like linear least squares regression or by the MLM. The most robust and widely accepted method is the Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM) where the b-value is calculated using the formula (Aki 1965); where is the average magnitude and data. is the minimum value of the magnitude presenting the In order to determine the evolution in time of b-value, we used a moving-window technique, taking n=200 or 500 events in a window, moving by n/10 events. To evaluate spatial distribution of b-value,

3 we used grid interval, each grid has at least 30 earthquakes. To evaluate spatial and temporal variation of b-value, we used ZMap Software Package 6.0 (Wiemer 2001). When judging the correlation between the changes in time of b-value and seismicity, one should also take into account the length of the moving-window and the threshold magnitude used. Figure 1. Earthquake epicenters, tectonics and different 15 seismic regions in the Western Anatolia. (Region 1- Aliağa Fault, Region 2- Akhisar Fault, Region 3- Eskişehir, İnönü Dodurga Fault zones, Region 4- Gediz Graben-Dumlupınar Fault, Region 5- Simav, Gediz-Dumlupınar Faults, Region 6- Kütahya Fault Zone, Region 7- Karova-Milas, Ula Ören, Muğla-Yatağan Faults, Region 8- Büyük Menderes Graben, Region 9- Dozkırı-Çardak, Sandıklı Faults, Region 10- Aegean Islands, Region 11- Aegean Arc, Region 12- Marmaris, Köyceğiz, Fethiye Faults, Region 13- Gölhisar-Çameli, Acıgöl, Tatarlı Kumdanlı Faults, Dinar Graben, Region 14- Sultandağı Fault, Region 15- Beyşehirgölü, Kaş Faults Conclusions The computed b-values change between 0.60 and 1.5 for the different 15 regions in WA. Plots of temporal variation of b-values for different regions of the WA show different behaviour (Figure 2). These observations suggest that different regions are under different stress conditions. Before an intermediate-large earthquake, stress level increases and after earthquake stress condition decreases, so b-value before an earthquake reduces prior to major shocks. Whenever there is a sudden decline and then an increase in b-value, we may notice an earthquake of sizable magnitude occurring. We can see this situation in Figure 2. We clearly see that decrease in b-value during 2005 in Region 1, which interrelated with a 6.8 magnitude earthquake. After the earthquake, b-value started to increase. And for the other regions, we also have observed similar situations for before different intermediatelarge earthquakes (Figure 2).

4 M= M= M= M= M= M= M= M= M= M= M= M= M= M= M= M=6.0 Figure 2. Temporal variations of b-value for different 15 seismic regions in the Western Anatolia. Spatial distribution of b-value is mapped on Figure 3. The values smaller than 0.70 are related to the Aegean Arc and Eskisehir Fault. The highest values are related to Sultandağı Fault, Aliağa Fault and Sandıklı Fault. The observed values in the graben sytems such as Gediz and Büyük Menderes are approximately equal to 0.90.

5 Figure 3. Spatial distribution of b-value in the Western Anatolia. Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to Karadeniz Technical University (Turkey) for partially supporting this work (project number: ). References Aki, K. [1965] Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N = a - bm and its confidence limits, Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst., Tokyo Univ. 43, Bayrak, Y. Yılmaztürk, A. and Öztürk, S. [2005] Relationships between fundamental seismic hazard parameters for the different source regions in Turkey, Natural Hazards, 36, Bayrak, Y. Öztürk, S. Koravos, G.Ch. Leventakis, G.A. and Tsapanos, T.M. [2008] Seismicity assessment for the different regions in and around Turkey based on instrumental data: Gumbel first asymptotic distribution and Gutenberg-Richter cumulative frequency law, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 8, Bayrak, Y. Öztürk, S. Çınar, H. Kalafat, D. Tsapanos, T.M. Koravos, G.Ch. and Leventakis, G.A. [2009] Estimating earthquake hazard parameters from instrumental data for different regions in and around Turkey, Engineering Geology, 105, Bozkurt, E. [2001] Neotectonics of Turkey- a Synthesis. Geodinamica Acta, 14, Erdik, M. Alpay, BY. Onur, T. Sesetyan, K. and Birgoren, G. [1999] Assessment of earthquake hazard in Turkey and neighboring regions. Annali di Geofisica, 42, Kanamori, H. [1981] The nature of seismicity patterns before large earthquakes, in Ewing, M., ed., Series 4: Earthquake Prediction - An International Review, AGU Geophys. Mono.: Washington D.C., p Kayabalı, K. and Akin, M. [2003] Seismic hazard map of Turkey using the deterministic approach. Engineering Geology, 69, Scholz, C.H. [1990] The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting. xxii pp. Cambridge, New York, Port Chester, Melbourne, Sydney: Cambridge University Press. ISBN Tsapanos, T.M. [2001] Evaluation of seismic hazard parameters for selected regions of the world: the maximum regional magnitude, Annali di Geofisica, 44, Wiemer, S., and M. Wyss [1997] Mapping the frequency-magnitude distribution in asperities: An improved technique to calculate recurrence times?, J. Geophys. Res., 102, Wiemer, S. [2001] A software package to analyze seismicity: ZMAP, Seism. Res. Lett., 72,

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