Managing Risk for Development

Transcription

1 International Policy Workshop World Development Report 2014 Managing Risk for Development Do we understand the drivers of risk? Prof. Dr. Joern BIRKMANN UNU-EHS, Bonn, Germany

2 Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity and frequency of climate events increases disaster risk (Source: IPCC 2012, slightly modified by Birkmann)

3 Components of the WorldRiskIndex

4 Hazard Frequency and Human Exposure (floods, storms, earthquakes, droughts, SLR,

5 Naturgefahren - Exposition Factors Haiti Newzeeland Earthquake 7 Moment Mag. (12. Jan. 2010) 6,3 Moment Mag. (22. Feb. 2011) Fatalities approx approx. 187

6 Susceptibility (part of vulnerability)

7 Factors Selected results Haiti of the WorldRiskIndex Neuseeland Earthquake 7 Moment Mag. 6,3 Moment Mag. Fatalities approx approx. 187 Poverty Access to piped drinking water More than 54,9% of the population lives below the poverty line 69% of the population has access to piped drinking water Governance Corruption (Haiti 1,8 [Scala 1-10; 1 highest corruption value]; rather 0% 100% of the population has access to it Corruption 9,46 Failed State Index 24,8 Failed State Index 108 [120 worst value]

8 WorldRiskIndex 2012 based on the WorldRiskIndex 2012 (Source: Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft and UNU-EHS)

9 International Policy Workshop World Development Report 2014 Risk Management and Development What are key drivers of risk? How to avoid that risk management creates new risks for development?

10 Increasing exposure of people and assets has been the major cause of changes in disaster losses (IPCC 2012) Specific types of urban development and rural-urban migration might increase the exposure of people to floods (example Mekong Delta VN) (Photo: Krause 2012) 10

11 Vulnerability has to be addressed in different dimensions (IPCC 2012, p ) Vulnerability Dimensions Social dimension (e.g. housing conditions, poverty, lack of social networks) Economic dimension (property loss, lack of insurances) Capacities Coping capacities Adaptive capacities Resilience building Environmental dimension (e.g. environmental services) Cultural dimension (risk perception) Institutional dimension (e.g. governance) (Photos: Birkmann 2008)

12 Managing the Risk from Climate Extremes - Linking national and local level decision making The national level plays a key role in governing and managing disaster risk because national government is central to providing risk management-related public goods (IPCC 2012, p. 341) (Photos: Birkmann 2008) Developing strategies for disaster risk management in the context of climate change requires a range of approaches, informed by and customized to specific local circumstances. (IPCC 2012, p. 293)

13 Risk Management and Development (Photos: Birkmann 2011; Map Source: Garschagen et al. 2012) Risk management to climate extremes requires a balanced portfolio of approaches. Measures applied have to be adaptive to different potential development pathways in the future (IPCC 2012, Birkmann 2011) While structural measures provide some protection from disasters, they may also create a false sense of safety. (IPCC 2012, p. 293) Conflicts between governmental and non-governmental strategies and norms can generate additional vulnerabilities. (IPCC 2012, p. 86; Birkmann 2011)

14 Conclusions Key sources of risk for example to climate change are not primarily determined by the physical event, but rather by the level of vulnerability of people exposed. Poverty, limited access to resources and failures in governance are in many cases root causes of such vulnerabilities. Risk management can help to prevent major harm and economic losses, however, risk management systems might also create path dependencies and hence reduce the adaptive capacity of people and countries at risk. Risk management is a shared task for governments, civil society and the private sector, however, we have also to critically review existing capacities (Fukushima crises governance crises PPP). Conventional risk management strategies often aim to prevent crises, however, crises might also trigger important learning and innovatioun processes.

15 References Thank you very much IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2012) : Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation; Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; [Field, C.; Barros, V.; Stocker, T.F.; Qin, D.; Dokken, D.; Ebi, K.L. Mastrandrea, M.D. Mach, K.; Plattner, G.-K.; Allen, S.K.; Tignor, M. and P.M. Midgley (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge Birkmann, J.; Welle, T.; Krause, D.; Wolfertz, J.; Suarez, D.C.; Setiadi, N. (2011): WorldRiskIndex: Concept and Results. In: Alliance Development Works (ed.): The WorldRiskReport 2011, Berlin: Birkmann, J; Garschagen, M.; Von Van, T.; Nguyen Thanh, B. (2012): Vulnerability, Coping and Adaptation to Water Related Hazards in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. In: Renaud, F.G.; Kuenzer, C. (eds.): The Mekong Delta System: Interdisciplinary Analyses of a River Delta, Springer, New York: Birkmann, J. (2011): First and Second-Order Adaptation to Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Context of Climate Change. Natural Hazards 58(2): ; Birkmann, J.; Buckle, P., Jaeger, J.; Pelling, M.; Setiadi, N.; Garschagen, M.; Fernando, N.; Kropp, J. (2010): Extreme Events and Disasters: A Window of Opportunity for Change? Analysis of Changes, Formal and Informal Responses After Mega-Disasters, Natural Hazards 55(3): Garschagen, M.; Diez, J.R; Nhan, D.K.; Kraas, F. (2012): Socio-Economic Development in the Mekong Delta: Between the Prospects for Progress and the Realms of Reality, In: Renaud, F.G.; Kuenzer, C. (eds.): The Mekong Delta System: Interdisciplinary Analyses of a River Delta, Springer, New York: Prof. Dr. Joern Birkmann Head of Section United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security Bonn, Germany, birkmann@ehs.unu.edu