THESIS TITLE GOES HERE IF NECESSARY SECOND LINE IF NECESSARY THIRDLINE. M.Sc. Thesis by Student Name SURNAME

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1 İSTANBUL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Don t write your degree. Write only Name SURNAME THESIS TITLE GOES HERE IF NECESSARY SECOND LINE IF NECESSARY THIRDLINE Delete this note before You print the thesis. Thesis supervisor text box exists in draft thesis (white cover) but not in final version (blue or black cover). Delete this note before You print the thesis. M.Sc. Thesis by Student Name SURNAME Department : Whatever Engineering or Science Programme : Whatever Engineering Thesis Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Name SURNAME THESIS SUBMISSION MONTH AND YEAR

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3 İSTANBUL TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY This date should be the day when you submit draft thesis (white cover) to the department (not institute) and doesnt change in the final version (blue/black cover). Delete this note before You print the thesis. THESIS TITLE GOES HERE IF NECESSARY SECOND LINE IF NECESSARY THIRDLINE M.Sc. Thesis by Student Name SURNAME (Student Number) Date of submission : 06 February 2008 Date of defence examination: 27 February 2008 Supervisor (Chairman) : Prof. Dr. Name SURNAME (ITU) Members of the Examining Committee : Prof. Dr. Name SURNAME (METU) White cover: the Assis. Prof. Dr. Name SURNAME (BU) date when you submit thesis to department Blue/black cover: the date when you submit final THESIS SUBMISSION MONTH AND YEAR version to institute. Delete this note before You print the thesis.

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5 İSTANBUL TEKNİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ FEN BİLİMLERİ ENSTİTÜSÜ TURKISH THESIS TITLE GOES HERE IF NECESSARY SECOND LINE IF NECESSARY THIRDLINE YÜKSEK LİSANS TEZİ Student Name SURNAME (Student Number) Tezin Enstitüye Verildiği Tarih : 06 Şubat 2008 Tezin Savunulduğu Tarih : 27 Şubat 2008 Tez Danışmanı : Prof. Dr. Ad SOYAD (İTÜ) Diğer Jüri Üyeleri : Doç. Dr. Ad SOYAD (ODTÜ) Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ad SOYAD (BÜ) THESIS SUBMISSION MONTH AND YEAR ( month should beturkish )

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7 FOREWORD Line spacing: 1 Delete this note before You print the thesis. FOREWORD I would like to express my deep appreciation and thanks for my advisor. This work is supported by ITU Institute of Science and Technology. February 2008 Thesis Author Name Surname Whatever Engineer or Science Margins of the document: Setup the margins as Mirrored Margins and 2.5 cm for Top, bottom, and outside margins and 4 cm for outside margin. Delete this note before You print the thesis. This page starts at v because counting starts at the first page (but page numbers are not shown at the first pages). Delete this note before You print the thesis. v

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9 Page title right sided. Before :6 pt After : 12 pt Delete this note before You print the thesis. TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS... vii ABBREVIATIONS... ix LIST OF TABLES... xi LIST OF FIGURES... xiii SUMMARY... xv ÖZET... xvii 1. INTRODUCTION Purpose of the Thesis Background Hypothesis INTEGRATED DATA Objectives Internet Server-Client Technology Web based Project Development FLOW FORECASTING Objectives Methodology Artificial neural networks Autoregressive-moving average models A process-based model: SWAT Cluster analysis Description Of Study Area Data Data Pre-processing CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Application of The Work REFERENCES APPENDICES CURRICULUM VITAE Page vii

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11 ABBREVIATIONS Line spacing: 1 Delete this note before You print the thesis. ABBREVIATIONS AIC ANN App BP CGI ESS GARCH GIS HCA Mbps St SWAT UMN : Akaike Information Criteria : Artificial Neural Network : Appendix : Backpropagation : Common Gateway Interface : Error sum-of-squares : Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity : Geographic Information Systems : Hierarchical Cluster Analysis : Megabits per second : Station : Soil and Water Assessment Tool : University of Minnesota ix

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13 LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: One-line table title with right sided columns... 4 Table 3.1: Gauging stations used in this study and their locations; a sample for twoline title, second line indented, column centred Table 3.2: One-line table title with right sided columns Table 3.3: Full page table, centred columns Table 3.4: One-line table title with centred columns Table 3.5: One-line table title with sublevel columns, centred Table A.1 : Sample table in appendix Page LIST OF TABLES Line spacing: 1 Second line indented at the same line with the beginning of the table title (shown by red line) Delete this note before You print the thesis. xi

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15 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 : The system types in modelling field Figure 2.1 : Server-client architecture... 3 Figure 3.1 : Elements of a neuron cell, adapted from Cetin (2003) Figure 3.2 : Conceptual diagram of three-layer neural network model, a sample for two line title... 7 Figure 3.3 : Single linkage distance Figure 3.4 : Flow-chart for compiling Figure 3.5 : Location map for the study area, adapted from Url Figure 3.6 : Experiment II: fluctuation in model performance (MSE) Figure A.1 : Environmental characteristics of Algarve basin Page LIST OF FIGURES Line spacing: 1 Second line indented at the same line with the beginning of the figure title (shown by red line) Delete this note before You print the thesis. xiii

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17 ENGLISH THESIS TITLE GOES HERE SUMMARY In last two decades Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gub rgren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut lab ore sit et dolore magna. SUMMARY Line spacing: 1 This is an extended summary which is min 200 words to max 5 pages Delete this note before You print the thesis. xv

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19 TURKISH THESIS TITLE ÖZET Son yıllarda Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gub rgren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed ÖZET Line spacing: 1 This is an extended summary in Turkish. Min 200 words to max 5 pages Delete this note before You print the thesis. xvii

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21 1. INTRODUCTION Text goes here Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gub rgren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed 1.1 Purpose of the Thesis The two main objectives of this study are Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gub rgren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut lab ore sit et dolore magna. 1.2 Background Following developments in computer network technology, people can manage and disseminate vast quantities of data quickly. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gub rgren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut lab ore sit et dolore magna. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gub rgren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut lab ore sit et dolore magna. 1

22 SAMPLE FIGURE Figure 2.1 : The system types in modelling field. 1.3 Hypothesis This study provided a unique opportunity to look at forecast issue with a wide range of model types and new clustering approach for model evaluation. eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. 2

23 2. INTEGRATED DATA 2.1 Objectives 2.2 Internet Server-Client Technology SAMPLE FIGURE Figure 2.2 : Server-client architecture. 3

24 2.3 Web based Project Development Table 2.1: One-line table title with right sided columns Parameter Column 2 Column 3 Column 3 Column 4 Latitude (ºN) Longitude (ºW) Altitude (m)

25 3. FLOW FORECASTING 3.1 Objectives The main focus of this chapter is to develop an Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gub rgren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut lab ore sit et dolore magna. 3.2 Methodology The general definition of Neural Networks and Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gub rgren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut lab ore sit et dolore magna Artificial neural networks The idea of NNs is based on biological neuron cells model of. SAMPLE FIGURE Figure 3.1 : Elements of a neuron cell, adapted from Cetin (2003). 5

26 3.2.2 Autoregressive-moving average models y t = φ. 1 y t 1 + εt (3.1) ε t is from a white-noise (stochastic process) which is random and normally distributed, y t is data value in year t, y t 1 is the predictor series. φ 1 is the AR(1) coefficient. It is estimated by the following formula which includes lag 1 and lag 2 autocorrelation coefficients of the residuals for AR model. φ = 1 ρ1 ρ. ρ 1 ρ (3.2) This form is in the similar form of classical regression model in which y t is estimated by previous values and ε t is the regression residuals. Even the name autoregressive expresses the regression on self. Higher order AR models contain more lagged values inside the equation. Equations are right aligned and bold. First chapter #, second eq. # Helpful source: Delete this note before You print 6 the thesis.

27 3.2.3 A process-based model: SWAT Figures are left aligned or centered. Line spacing: 1 Second line indented at the same line with the beginning of the figure title (shown by red line) Delete this note before You print the thesis. SAMPLE FIGURE Figure 3.2 : Conceptual diagram of three-layer neural network model, a sample for two line title. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gub rgren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut lab ore sit et dolore magna. 7

28 Fitting error is defined as, Error = N 1 2 ( y i d i ) 2 (3.3) i= 1 where, N= number of output nodes, y i=calculated output, and d i = desired data value. Minimization is performed by calculating the gradient for each node at the output layer ( y d ) δ i = dσ i. i i (3.4) dσ i is the derivative of the sigmoid function applied at y i which is defined for each Cluster analysis Cluster analysis (CA) is widely used to organize the observed data into meaningful structures and to find patterns. It has been widely used in atmospheric sciences. SAMPLE FIGURE dis tan ce Figure 3.3 : Single linkage distance. ( C, C ) min X C, X C d( X, X ) A B = A A B B A B. tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. 8

29 SAMPLE FIGURE Figure 3.4 : Flow-chart for compiling. 9

30 3.3 Description Of Study Area Alportel River, which is highlighted in Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. SAMPLE FIGURE Figure 3.5 : Location map for the study area, adapted from Url Data tempor invidunt ut labore et dolores. Stet clita kasd gub rgren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut lab ore sit et dolore magna. 10

31 Tables are left aligned or centered. Line spacing: 1 Second line indented at the same line with the beginning of the table title (shown by red line) Delete this note before You print the thesis. Reference at the end of sentence. Reference at the beginning of sentence. Numbered reference. Delete this note before You print the thesis. Table 3.1: Gauging stations used in this study and their locations; a sample for twoline title, second line indented, column centred. Parameter Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Latitude (ºN) Longitude (ºW) Altitude (m) diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut lab ore sit et dolore magna (Nelson, 1988). eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum [1]. Nelson (1988) analized lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Table 3.2: One-line table title with right sided columns Parameter Column 2 Column 3 Column 3 Column 4 Latitude (ºN) Longitude (ºW) Altitude (m) tempor invidunt ut lab ore sit et dolore magna. 11

32 Table 3.3: Full page table, centred columns Parametre Kolon 2 Kolon 3 Alt kolon Kolon 4 Kolon 5 Alt Alt Alt Alt kolon kolon kolon kolon Satır Satır Satır Satır Satır Satır Satır Satır Satır Satır Satır Satır Satır Satır Satır

33 3.5 Data Pre-processing Data used in this study such as precipitation, humidity, temperature, streamflow, are Z initially normalized to [ ] interval. equation (Demirel, 2004) it scores are computed by the following Z it i _ Sit S = σ i (3.5) _ S where it = input data for variable i at time t; S i S = arithmetic average of it ; standard S deviation of it. SAMPLE FIGURE Figure 3.6 : Experiment II: fluctuation in model performance (MSE). 13

34 Table 3.4: One-line table title with centred columns Parameter Column 2 Column 3 Column 3 Latitude (ºN) Longitude (ºW) Altitude (m) River Type of soil RIBEIRA DE ALPORTEL Cambissolos and Litossolos RIBEIRA DE ALPORTEL Cambissolos and Litossolos Table 3.5: One-line table title with sublevel columns, centred Parameter Column 2 Column 3 Latitude (ºN) Sublevel 1 Sublevel 2 Longitude (ºW) Altitude (m) River RIBEIRA DE ALPORTEL 14

35 4. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS The major purpose of this research was to achieve the two hypotheses mentioned in the first section. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gub rgren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed 4.1 Application of The Work In this thesis, the necessary steps for constructing an end-to-end streamflow forecasting system were discussed. These steps include the use Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gub rgren, no sea takimata sanctus est tempor invidunt ut lab ore sit et dolore magna. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gub rgren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut lab ore sit et dolore magna. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gub rgren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut lab ore sit et dolore magna. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. 15

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37 REFERENCES REFERENCES Line spacing: 1 Author Surname, hint: sorted A to Z. Delete this note before You print the thesis. Abrahart, R. J., and See, L., 1998: Neural Network vs. ARMA Modelling: Constructing Benchmark Case Studies of River Flow Prediction. In GeoComputation 98. Proceedings of the Third International Conference on GeoComputation, University of Bristol, United Kingdom, September (CD-ROM). Abrahart, R. J., and See, L., 2000: Comparing neural network and autoregressive moving average techniques for the provision of continuous river flow forecasts in two contrasting catchments, Hydrolog. Process., 14, Acar, M. H. and Yılmaz, P., Effect of tetramethylthiuramdisulfide on the cationic poymerization of cylohexeneoxide, The 2 nd International Conferences on Advanced Polymers via Macromolecular Engineering, Orlando, Florida, USA, April Box, G. E. P., and Jenkins, J. M., 1976: Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day, San Francisco, CA. Burke, W.F. and Uğurtaş, G., Seismic interpretation of Thrace basin, TPAO internal report, Ankara, Turkey. Burlando, P., Rosso, R., Cadavid, L. G., and Salas, J. D., 1993: Forecasting of Short-term Rainfall Using ARMA Models. Journal of Hydrology. Vol. 144, no. 1-4, pp IOC-UNESCO, International bathymetric chart of the Mediterranean, Scale 1:1,000,000, 10 sheets, Ministry of Defence, Leningrad. LePichon, X., Kişisel görüşme. McCaffrey, R. and Abers, G., SYN3: A program for inversion of teleseismic body wave forms on microcomputers, Air Force Geophysics Laboratory Technical Report, AFGL-TR , Hanscomb Air Force Base, MA. Nelson, M.R., Constraints on the seismic velocity structure of the crust and upper mantle beneath the eastern Tien Shan, Central Asia, PhD Thesis, MIT, Cambridge, MA. Roberts. S. and Jackson, J.A., Active normal faulting in central Greece: An overview, in The Geometry of Normal Faults, Spec. Publ. Geol. Soc. Lond., 56, p , Eds. Roberts, A.M., Yielding, G. and Freeman, B., Blackwell Scientific Publications,Oxford. Sisaky, A., Golab, F. and Myer, B., Rust resistant potatoes, United Kingdom Patent, No: dated

38 TS-40561, Çelik yapıların plastik teoriye göre hesap kuralları, Türk Standartları Enstitüsü, Ankara. Url-1 < accessed at Url-2 < >, accessed at Vanden, G., Knapp, S., & Doe, J. (2001). Role of referenceelements in the selection of resources by psychology undergraduates. Journal of Bibliographic Research, 5, Retrieved October 13, 2001, from In case, the internet document reference has very limited information (i.e., anonymous text), please indicate the full link and the date you retrieved the source. Delete this note before You print the thesis. 18

39 [1] Abrahart, R. J., and See, L., 1998: Neural Network vs. ARMA Modelling: Constructing Benchmark Case Studies of River Flow Prediction. In GeoComputation 98. Proceedings of the Third International Conference on GeoComputation, University of Bristol, United Kingdom, September (CD-ROM). [2] IOC-UNESCO, International bathymetric chart of the Mediterranean, Scale 1:1,000,000, 10 sheets, Ministry of Defence, Leningrad. REFERENCES Line spacing: 1 Numbered reference style, hint: numbered as the sequence of source usage. Delete this note before You print the thesis. 19

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41 APPENDICES APPENDIX A.1 : Regional Thematic Maps of Algarve, Adapted from Url-4 21

42 APPENDIX A.1 Figure A.1 : Environmental characteristics of Algarve basin. Multiple figures are numbered by small letters (a, b etc.) if each figure will be referenced otherwise a group name will be enough as used here. Pls check the Turkish template for an example in appendix part. Delete this note before You print the thesis. 22

43 Table A.1 : Sample table in appendix. Parameter Column 2 Column 3 Latitude (ºN) Sublevel 1 Sublevel 2 Longitude (ºW) Altitude (m) River RIBEIRA DE ALPORTEL 23

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45 CURRICULUM VITAE Candidate s full name: Place and date of birth: Permanent Address: Universities and Colleges attended: Publications: Ganapuram S., Hamidov A., Demirel, M. C., Bozkurt E., Kındap U., and Newton A., 2007: Erasmus Mundus Scholar's Perspective On Water And Coastal Management Education In Europe. International Congress - River Basin Management, March 22-24, 2007 Antalya, Turkey. Cv with photo is recommended. Publications should be listed. Line spacing: 1 Delete this note before You print the thesis. 25