World Agricultural Production

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP World Agricultural Production China: Higher Area Boosts Corn Production China is expected to produce its third largest corn crop in 2005/06. Production is estimated at million tons, up 4 million from last month and similar to China Corn Area and Production last year s crop. Planted area for 2005/06 is estimated at a record 26.0 million 28 hectares, up 2 percent from last year. Corn area dropped sharply 26 in 2000/01 after two consecutive 24 bumper crops resulted in excessive stocks and low prices. 22 In 2003/04 the grain crop was lower than expected. In order to 20 induce farmers to plant more 18 corn, the Chinese government offered tax breaks and subsidies. 16 Corn area rebounded in 2004/05 and 2005/06 and has now surpassed the previous record set in 1999/00. a MH 1991 The estimated yield of 5.0 tons per hectare is down 2 percent from last year s excellent yield. Abundant rainfall and warm temperatures during the growing season favored crop development in the important corn-producing provinces of northern and eastern China. However, excessive rainfall during flowering and pollination lowered yield prospects in parts of Liaoning, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia, while tropical storms damaged corn in Shandong and Jiangsu. Harvesting is now complete. Scattered showers in September caused minor delays in the Northeast, but temperatures remained above freezing in the main crop areas through mid-october, at least one week longer than normal. Heavy rain in September may have lowered yields and crop quality in parts of the North China Plain, but warmer and drier weather in October aided harvesting. (For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at ) Area Prod Million tons Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

2 South Africa: Lower Corn Area and Output for 2005/06 South Africa s 2005/06 corn production is forecast at 7.5 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month and down 4.2 million from last year. Area is forecasted at 2.6 million hectares, down 0.2 million from last month and down 0.6 million from last year. The estimated yield of 2.88 tons per hectare is near the 5-year average and assumes normal weather for the upcoming growing season. Although South Africa s Crop Estimates Committee s (CEC) planting intentions survey indicates a year-to-year decrease of 53 percent in corn area for 2005/06, prices have increased since the survey. Because of the higher prices, along with timely November rains, farmers are likely to plant more corn than initial intentions indicated. Therefore, USDA forecasts that the year-to-year change in area will not be as great as indicated by the CEC survey. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at ) Ukraine: Record Corn Yield for 2005/06 The USDA estimates Ukraine corn production for 2005/06 at 7.2 million tons, up 11 percent from last month, but down 18 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 1.65 million hectares against 2.30 million last year. Favorable weather during the growing season contributed to this year s estimated record yield of 4.36 tons per hectare, and unusually dry harvest weather enabled farmers to harvest 97 percent of the planted area, compared to 93 percent last year and the 10-year average of 92 percent. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at ) Canada: Corn Production Increases Canada s corn production for 2005/06 is estimated at 9.5 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 0.6 million from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 1.1 million hectares, nearly unchanged from last year and slightly below the 5-year average of 1.2 million. This month s production increase in Canada is largely due to an increase in Ontario corn yield, which is estimated at a record 9.1 tons per hectare. Yield in Quebec is reported at 8.4 tons per hectare by Statistics Canada. Ontario and Quebec account for approximately 62 and 35 percent, respectively, of Canada s corn production. The overall yield is estimated at 8.6 tons per hectare, up 5 percent from last year. (For more information, contact Nicole Wagner at ) Ukraine: Dry Harvest Brings Record Sunflowerseed Production The USDA estimates Ukrainian sunflowerseed production for 2005/06 at a record 4.6 million tons, up 7 percent from last month and up 51 percent from last year when unusually wet weather reduced output. Area is estimated at 3.6 million hectares, a year-to-year increase of 6 percent. The crop benefited from favorable weather during the growing season, and estimated yield increased by over 40 percent to 1.28 tons per hectare, the highest level in 10 years. Unusually dry harvest weather enabled farmers to gather nearly 100 percent of the planted area. In a typical year, about 4 percent of the area is abandoned. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at ) Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA 2

3 Australia: Rapeseed Production High Despite Season s Delayed Start Australian rapeseed production for 2005/06 is forecast at 1.35 million tons, up 0.25 million from last month, but down 0.18 million from last year. The area is forecast at 0.94 million hectares, up 0.04 million from last month, but down from last year due to extended dryness during the optimal sowing period. The yield forecast of 1.44 tons per hectare is above last year and above the 5-year average. Except for the early season dryness, weather has been generally favorable, with abundant rainfall in June, and again in September during the critical flowering stage. The rapeseed harvest is in full swing in all producing states. Of the three main winter crops, the rapeseed harvest is completed first, followed by barley, then wheat. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at ) Canada: Rapeseed Production Sets Record Canadian rapeseed production for 2005/06 is estimated at 9.7 million tons, up 1.2 million from last month and up 1.9 million from last year. Canadian farmers reported a record yield of 1.83 tons per hectare in a November survey from Statistics Canada. This is up from the previous record of 1.58 tons per hectare set in 1999/2000. Favorable precipitation during the growing season, and good harvest weather in Alberta and Saskatchewan led to the record crop. Adverse conditions in Manitoba, however, caused a 29-percent decline in production in that province. (For more information, contact Nicole Wagner at ) India Cotton Production Estimate Scaled Back India's 2005/06 cotton production is estimated at 18.6 million bales, down 0.4 million from last month and down 0.4 million from last year. Harvested area is forecast is 8.9 million hectares, down slightly from last year. The decrease in estimated production is due to lower estimated planted area and likely yield losses due to heavy late-season rains in some growing areas. Harvested area is estimated at 8.9 million hectares based on State Government estimates. Heavy rains during October and November in central and southern India caused some damage to the standing cotton crop in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu. Although crop losses due to late rains are expected in the south, improved yield prospects in India s largest producing state of Gujarat and the main northern zone producing state of Punjab will partially offset these losses. Additional details of the rain damage should emerge in late December as arrivals from the southern areas increase. As of Dec. 3, 2005, arrivals totaled 4.0 million bales, down 2 percent from the same date last year. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at ) China: Wheat Production Higher in 2005/06 China s wheat production for 2005/06 is estimated at 96.0 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month and up 4.1 million from last year. Area is estimated at 22.7 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 1.1 million from last year. This is the first year-to-year increase in area since 1997/98. The year-to-year increase in production is due to a 6-percent increase in area. Winter wheat production is estimated at 91.0 million tons. The estimated wheat yield of 4.23 tons per hectare is nearly equal to last year s record yield. The crop benefited from generally favorable weather, but untimely rainfall in parts of the North China Plain during the harvest Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA 3

4 reportedly caused quality problems. (For more information, contact Paulette Sandene at ) Australia Wheat Production Forecast Higher Australia s wheat production for 2005/06 is forecast at 24.0 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month and up 1.4 million from last year. Area is forecast at 11.8 million hectares, up 0.3 million from last month, but down 2 million from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.03 tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last month and up 24 percent from last year. Winter rainfall was near normal for most of the wheat areas of Western Australia, the largest wheat producing state, and crop conditions were reportedly good after an excellent start to the season. There have been some dry pockets in the state, but for the most part the conditions are favorable. Seasonal conditions have been variable across the major cropping regions of eastern Australia. Sowing was delayed due to dry May weather and finished later than usual following June precipitation. July was dry, but August and September saw normal to above normal rainfall in all crop areas except northern New South Wales and Queensland. Precipitation and temperatures during October and November were optimal for grain fill in most wheat growing regions. The wheat harvest is complete in Queensland and is in full swing in the other states. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at ) Uzbekistan: Record Wheat Crop for 2005/06 The USDA estimates Uzbekistan wheat production for 2005/06 at a record 5.7 million tons, up 16 percent from last month and up 10 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 1.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but down 7 percent from last year. Uzbekistan wheat area tripled between the mid-1980 s and the mid-1990 s as part of a national drive to achieve selfsufficiency in wheat production; however it has remained relatively stable since 1995, fluctuating between 1.2 and 1.4 million hectares. Yield has risen steadily since 1995, due in part to an increase in the area under irrigation. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at ) Canada: Wheat at Record Yield Canada s wheat production for 2005/06 is estimated at 26.8 million tons, up 5 percent from last month and up 4 percent from last year, based on the Statistics Canada s November Farm Survey. While harvested area of 9.8 million hectares is slightly down from last year, yield is reported at a record 2.73 tons per hectare, up 4 percent from last year s strong yield of 2.62 tons per hectare. Most of the increase in yield is due to better weather in Saskatchewan and Alberta. However, farmers in Manitoba reported a 29-percent drop in production, due chiefly to excessive early season wetness, decreasing their crop to 2.3 million tons. (For more information, contact Nicole Wagner at ) Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA 4

5 Australia: Barley Production Forecast Higher The 2005/06 Australia barley production is forecast at 8.5 million tons, up 1.3 million from last month and up 0.8 million from last year. The area forecast is 4.1 million hectares, up 0.3 million from last month, but down 0.5 million from last year. Winter rainfall was near normal for most of the barley areas of Western Australia and crop conditions were reported as good after an excellent start to the season. There have been some dry pockets in the state, but for the most part the conditions are positive in Australia s second largest barley producing state. Seasonal conditions have been variable across the major cropping regions of eastern Australia. An unusually dry May significantly delayed sowing operations until June s exceptionally heavy precipitation that allowed sowing operations to complete later than normal. The later than normal rainfall likely resulted in some area shifting away from wheat to barley this season. August and September saw normal to above normal rainfall in nearly all growing areas. Precipitation and temperature during October and November were optimal for grain fill in most barley growing regions. The barley harvest is complete in Queensland and is in full swing in the other states. (For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield at ) Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA 5

6 This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-429), Dec. 9, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be released after 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time, December 9, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Metric tons to 480-lb bales Cotton = MT * Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * Area & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA 6

7 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division Ag Box 1045, Room 6541, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Division Director Allen Vandergriff Administrative Assistant Mary Jackson Acting Deputy Director for Analysis Paul Provance Remote Sensing Specialist Brad Doorn Contract Representative Theresa Wright Imagery Archive Coordinator Bob Tetrault USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Chief of Technology Services Bob Baldwin Image Processing Specialist Stephen Macugoski GIS Specialist (Vacant) COMMODITY-SPECIFIC INFORMATION Grains Chairperson Michelle Greenberg Oilseeds Chairperson Paul Provance Rice Chairperson Teresa McKeivier Cotton Chairperson Teresa McKeivier COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION Brazil, Paraguay, & Venezuela Michael Shean Canada & Argentina Nicole Wagner European Union, the Balkans, Bryan Purcell & North Africa Russia, Ukraine, & Central Asia Mark Lindeman China, Koreas, Japan, Paulette Sandene & Southeast Asia Australia, Bangladesh, India, Jim Crutchfield & Pakistan Southern Africa & West Africa Curt Reynolds Western United States Carl Gernazio Eastern United States (Vacant) Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, & Iraq (Vacant) Mexico, Central America, (Vacant) & Caribbean Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA 7

8 TABLE 1 World Crop Production Summary North America Other Europe Asia South America Selected Other All Commodity World Total Others Foreign United Canada Mexico EU-25 Russia Ukraine China India Indo- Paki- Thai- Argen- Brazil Aus- South Turkey States nesia stan land tina tralia Africa ---Million metric tons--- Wheat 2003/ /05 prel /06 proj. Nov Dec Coarse Grains 2003/ /05 prel. 1, /06 proj. Nov Dec Rice (Milled) 2003/ /05 prel /06 proj. Nov Dec Total Grains 1/ 2003/04 1, , /05 prel. 2, , /06 proj. Nov. 1, , Dec. 1, , Oilseeds 2/ 2003/ /05 prel /06 proj. Nov Dec Million 480 pound bales--- Cotton 2003/ /05 prel /06 proj. Nov Dec / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above. 2/ Includes soybean, cottonseed, peanut (inshell), sunflowerseed, rapeseed for individual countries. Copra and palm kernel are added to world totals. Note: Entries of 0.0 indicate no reported or insignificant production.

9 TABLE 2 Wheat Area, Yield, and Production World United States Total Foreign North & South America Canada Mexico Argentina Brazil Europe EU EU France United Kingdom Germany NMS Poland Hungary Other Europe Bulgaria Romania Russian Fed Ukraine Kazakstan Asia & Oceania Australia Bangladesh China India Iran Pakistan Saudi Arabia Turkey Africa Algeria Morocco South Africa Egypt Others

10 TABLE 3 Total Coarse Grain Area, Yield, and Production World , United States Total Foreign North & South America Canada Mexico Argentina Brazil Europe EU EU Germany France NMS Poland Czech Rep Hungary Other Europe Romania Russia Ukraine Kazakstan Lithuania Turkey Asia & Oceania China Thailand India Indonesia Philippines Australia Africa South Africa Others

11 TABLE 4 Corn Area, Yield, and Production World United States Total Foreign North & South America Canada Mexico Argentina Brazil Europe EU EU France Italy NMS Hungary Poland Slovak Rep Other Europe Romania Serbia Russia Ukraine Asia China Thailand India Indonesia Philippines Africa South Africa Egypt Zimbabwe Others

12 TABLE 5 Barley Area, Yield, and Production World United States Total Foreign North & South America Canada Europe EU EU Denmark France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom NMS Poland Czech Rep Hungary Lithuania Other Europe Russia Ukraine Kazakstan Romania Norway Turkey Asia & Oceania China India Australia Africa Algeria Others

13 TABLE 6 Oats Area, Yield, and Production World United States Total Foreign North & South America Canada Argentina Europe EU EU Finland Germany Sweden Italy NMS Czech Rep Poland Serbia Hungary Other Europe Norway Turkey Russia Ukraine Belarus Asia & Oceania China Australia Others

14 TABLE 7 Rye Area, Yield, and Production World United States Total Foreign North & South America Canada Europe EU EU Denmark France Germany Spain Austria Sweden NMS Hungary Poland Czech Rep Lithuania Other Europe Russia Ukraine Belarus Turkey Others

15 TABLE 8 Sorghum Area, Yield, and Production World United States Total Foreign North & South America Mexico Colombia Venezuela Argentina Europe EU EU France Italy Spain Asia & Oceania China India Thailand Australia Africa Nigeria Sudan Ethiopia Egypt Yemen Tanzania Niger South Africa Others

16 TABLE 9 Rice Area, Yield, and Production Area Yield (Rough) Production (Milled) Change in Production World United States Total Foreign North & South America Brazil Europe EU EU Italy Spain Greece Other Europe Russia Asia & Oceania China Thailand India Pakistan Indonesia Iran Philippines Japan South Korea Taiwan Bangladesh Burma Australia Vietnam Cambodia Africa Nigeria Egypt Others

17 TABLE 10 Total Oilseed Area, Yield, and Production World Total 1/ Total Foreign Copra Palm Kernel Major Oilseed United States Foreign Oilsee South Ameri Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia China India EU France Germany United Kin Hungary Poland Spain Italy Canada Russia Ukraine Pakistan Australia Turkey Indonesia Uzbekistan Nigeria Burma Romania South Africa Others / Major oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel. 2/ Individual countries and regions include soybean, cottonseed, peanut (inshell), sunflowerseed, and rapeseed.

18 TABLE 11 Soybean Area, Yield, and Production World United States Total Foreign South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay China India Canada EU Italy France Indonesia Russia North Korea Serbia Japan Thailand Ukraine South Africa Vietnam Uganda Others

19 TABLE 12 Cottonseed Area, Yield, and Production World United States Total Foreign China India Pakistan Central Asia Uzbekistan Tajikistan Turkmenist Kazakhstan African Franc Mali Burkina Benin Brazil Turkey Greece Australia Syria Egypt Others

20 TABLE 13 Peanut Area, Yield, and Production World United States Total Foreign China India Africa Nigeria Senegal Chad Sudan Congo, DR Burkina Fas Ghana Guinea Egypt Mali Indonesia Burma Vietnam Argentina Brazil Mexico Others