The Colonial Origins of French Trade Patterns

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1 The Colonial Origins of French Trade Patterns Tania Kallab Advisor: Cristina Terra 24 October, 2013 that

2 I. Sommaire Research Question and Motivation Colonialism and Economic Performance (AJR 2001, Alam 1994, Bretocchi 2001, ES 1997, Kown 2001, Lange 2006, Nunn , Sylwester 2007, etc ) Gap: Little attention has been given to the impact of colonial legacy on trade patterns during colonization No paper to our knowledge has focused on understanding how the nature of colonization impacted the volume and the type of goods traded. Question: How might French trade differ regarding either an exploitation or a settlement colonization through both channels of institutions and networking? H.K Colonialism Growth institutions trade growth Tania Kallab I Colonial Impacts on trade patterns 2

3 II. Sommaire Hypothesis Tania Kallab I Colonial origins of trade patterns 3

4 III. Historical Justification Sommaire Trade and Institutional Quality Better colonial Institutions promote current trade in British ex colonies v/s French ones (Desousa and Lochard 2010) Belonging to an empire and being part of an institutional framework (custom union, currency union ) doubles colonial bilateral trade (Mitchener and Weidenmier 2008) Prior Colonial Status impacts significantly current bilateral trade (Rose 2000, Glick and Taylor 2006) Institutional homogeneity promotes trade by 13% and that institutional quality increases it by 30% (DeGroot, 2004) Independence put end to forms of trade agreements and lead to decrease in postcolonial trade (Head et al. 2010) Tania Kallab I Colonial origins of trade patterns 4

5 III. Historical Justification Sommaire Trade and Networking European Colonization brought human capital (EL 2012) Human Capital = Networking =lower transaction costs Networking reduces cost of transaction Alleviate uncertainty, information asymmetry and opportunism (Parsons 2005) Economic, cultural, institutional knowledge about home and foreign country increase trade (Egger 2012) In an opportunistic environment the mutual benefit is less likely Tania Kallab I Colonial origins of trade patterns 5

6 III. Historical Justification Sommaire Settlement, Institutions and Networking Europeans migrated in large numbers, they supplanted indigenous institutions with their own European style institutions. Europeans brought more than just institutions to the New World. They brought their own human capital as well that Glaesser, La Porta, Lopez de Silanes, and Shleifer (2004) (GLLS) Colonization strategy was subject to viability of settlement: more disease extractive state Profitable market but no land, no climate: no settlement, authoritarian political institutions European colonization had lasting effects on political institutions and hence on economic development (ES 1997, AJR 2001) Tania Kallab I Colonial origins of trade patterns 6

7 IV. Sommaire French Colonial Strategy France implemented custom unions V/S Britain open door policy ROW free trade industrialization V/S France protectionism Imposing prices and products Former colonies exported primary products to their metropole, they imported manufactured goods from their colonial power (Lavallée, Lochard, 2012). EmpirewasusedasaBufferintimesofcrisis Metropolis would acquire land in periods of crisis Ex french colonies have traditionally employed mercantile economic policies that have restricted their level of international trade domestic investment and educational attainment (Kown 2011) Tania Kallab I Colonial origins of trade patterns 7

8 V. Sommaire Data Description We constructed a new database of more than 30,000 observation for a set of 120 countries over the period of , relying on the Tableau General du commerce Exterieur de la France We gathered more than 5,000 observation of both imports and Exports for each of the following sectors: Agricultural products, raw products for industry, manufactured goods Countries in the original archival dataset were divided according to their post WWII nomenclature. Exhaustive work due to highly changeable political situation Trade value was divided according to average land area in the subgroup Construct dummies for Colonizer, year of colonization, year of independence (Mayer et al. 2010, CEPII) Countries change position continuously in the sample hence does their trade values (i.e. African Countries) 28 French colonies, 37 British colonies, 17 colonies from other colonizers 21 sovereign countries, and 17 previous colonies. Tania Kallab I Colonial origins of trade patterns 8

9

10

11

12 Not colonized French Colonies British Colonies Other Colonies

13 IV. Baseline Model Sommaire Estimated equations Cross Section OLS estimators: Ln( ST _ Trade ) XMi,, 0 1 EurSettl1900 i 2 Institutions i 3 popden1900 i 4 dist 5 cli i Institutions i 0 1 EurSettl1900 i EurSettl1900 i 0 1 cli i 2 Settlementorigins i Multi group analysis per group of colonies and group of trade agreements and group of settlers Tania Kallab I Colonial origins of trade patterns 13

14 VII. Sommaire Stylized Model Tania Kallab I Colonial origins of trade patterns 14

15 VIII. PLS SEM Partial Least square Simultaneous equation modeling Sommaire Some Definitions PLSPM test a predictive model that examines causal relationships (Hair Jr. et al, 2012) Generalisation of principal component analysis (PCA) to the case of several data tables connected by causal links. (Tennenhaus, 2008) Many proxies defining one latent variable Allows simultaneous multivariate analysis Identifies direct and indirect effects Allows group analysis (compare different groups of colonies and different groups of trade union members) Tania Kallab I Colonial origins of trade patterns 15

16 VIII. PLS SEM Partial Least square Simultaneous equation modeling Sommaire Advantages Limitations Can be carried out on small sample <100, corrects for measurement errors Block analysis Allows to check simultaneous causal effect simultaneously and check the direct and indirect effect Define causality a priori Define indicators a priori Confirms or reject a prior established theory The PLS SEM represent directional relationships, need a strong theoretical support to assume causal relationships Tania Kallab I Colonial origins of trade patterns 16

17 IX. Sommaire DataSet The European Settlement data is from AJR (2001) completed from Huillery (2011) for the missing information The constraint on Executive 1900 index is a Seven category scale from 1 to 7, with a higher score indicating better quality of institutions. (AJR 2001) and the polity III dataset. Democracy 1900 is 0 to 10 index, same source as Constraint on executive, higher score indicating more democracy Population 1900 from (Nunn 2011), missing data will be adjusted and interpolated from available ones (Maddison, 2003) Distance from CEPII ( and Mayer et al. (2011). from Nunn (2008). Trade policies from (Mitchener, Weidenmier 2008). Dummies for colonial status were constructed Population density in 1500 and log settler mortality in 1900 from (AJR 2001, 2001) Tania Kallab I Colonial origins of trade patterns 17

18 X. Sommaire Defining the indicators Construct determinants Manifest variable Latent Variable Standardized loadings weights Critical Ratio Lower Bound Upper bound Fr exports of Agricultural goods Fr exports of raw material French Exports Fr exports of Manufactured goods Fr Imports of Agricultural goods Fr Imports of raw material French Imports Fr Imports of Manufactured goods Population Density 1500 Settlement origins Log Settler mortality Maximum humidity Climate Minimum Humidity Cosntraint on Executive 1900 Institutions Democracy European Settlement Population Density Distance loadings measure the well the indicators explain the corresponding LV. Value is significant at 95% confidence level 12

19 XI. Sommaire Results of outer Model Panel A: Outer Model Whole sample G0 G1 G2 G3 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Dependent Variable: European Settlement 1900 Settlement origins 0.501*** 0.354*** ** (0.08) (0.11) (0.33) (0.28) (0.30) Climate ** (0.09) (0.15) (0.25) (0.28) (0.30) R squared Obs Notes: All regressions are PLS SEM, the estimator is the OLS estimator Settlement origins is constructed using log settler mortality in 1900 and population density in G0 to G3 defines subgroups having respectively no trade preference with any empire, having trade preference with French empire, british empire and other empires Panel B: Outer Model Whole sample G0 G1 G2 G3 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Dependent Variable: Institutions 1900 European Settlement *** 0.25** *** 0.97*** (0.078) (0.110) (0.316) (0.050) (0.070) R squared Obs

20 XII. Sommaire Results of Inner Model Inner Model Whole sample G0 G1 G2 G3 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Dependent variable: S T Exports Euro Settlement * 0.171* * (0.11) (0.11) (0.35) (1.32) (0.30) Institutions * * (0.10) 0.11 (0.56) (0.88) 0.30 Population density *** 0.511*** 1.885** 0.587** 2.13** (0.10) (0.14) (0.88) (0.30) (0.23) Distance * 0.3*** (0.09) (0.11) (0.35) (0.22) (0.08) Climate 0.374*** ** *** (0.10) (0.12) (1.02) (0.29) (0.08) R obs Note: The dependent variable is constructed under 3 indicators: agricultural goods, raw material and manufactured goods The institutions is construced under democracy in 1900 and constraint on executive in 1900 G0 to G3 defines subgroups having respectively no trade preference with any empire, having trade preference with French empire, british empire and other empires 12

21 XII. Sommaire Results of inner Model Inner Model Whole sample G0 G1 G2 G3 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Euro Settlement (0.11) (0.12) (0.24) (0.51) Institutions * 0.887*** 0.57 (0.11) (0.12) (0.39) (0.50) Population density *** 0.441** 2.069*** 0.421** 2.39*** (0.11) (0.16) (0.62) (0.22) (0.38) Distance * (0.10) (0.13) (0.25) (0.14) Climate 0.33** ** 0.553** (0.10) (0.14) (0.72) (0.51) R obs Note: The dependent variable is constructed under 3 indicators: agricultural goods, raw material and manufactured goods The institutions is construced under democracy in 1900 and constraint on executive in 1900 G0 to G3 defines subgroups having respectively no trade preference with any empire, having trade preference with French empire, british empire and other empires Inner model is used according to regression (3) in the outer model 12

22 II. Sommaire Direct and Indirect results Direct effects Settlement origins European Settlement institutions settlement decision institutions ST exports ST imports Indirect effects Settlement origins European Settlement institutions ST exports ST imports Total effects Settlement origins European Settlement settlement decision institutions ST exports ST imports

23 Thank You! 24

French Colonial Trade Patterns and European Settlements

French Colonial Trade Patterns and European Settlements Comp Econ Stud (2018) 60:291 331 https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-017-0040-6 French Colonial Trade Patterns and European Settlements Tania El Kallab 1,2 Cristina Terra 2,3 Published online: 21 December 2017

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