Knowledge Spillovers, Spatial Dependence, and Regional Economic Growth in U.S. Metropolitan Areas. Up Lim, B.A., M.C.P.

Transcription

1 Knowledge Spillovers, Spatial Dependence, and Regional Economic Growth in U.S. Metropolitan Areas by Up Lim, B.A., M.C.P. DISSERTATION Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Pa.rt.ial Fulfillment. of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN December 2003 v

2 Table of Contents Acknowledgments Abstract List of Tables List of Figures v viii xv xvi Chapter 1. Introduction Problem Statement Researeh Objectives (i 1.3 Contributions Organization of the Study 11 Chapter 2. Theoretical Underpinnings: Knowledge Externalities and Increasing Returns in the Growth Process Introduction Classical Origins Neoclassical Growth Theory Increasing Returns and the Process of Cumulative Ca.usa.tion Increasing Returns and Endogenous Growth Theory Evolutionary Theory of Technological Change and Economic Growth.. ' ' Concluding Remarks 31 Chapter 3. Spatial Data, Spatial Externalities, and Spatial Econometric Methods Introduction Spatial Dependence and Spatial Econometric Analysis Why Spatial Econometric Analysis? 37

3 3.2.2 Modeling Space: Spatial Weights Matrices Spatial Lag of a. Variable Spatial Econometric Models A Taxonomy of Spatial Regression Models The spatial lag model The spatial error model The spatial cross-regressive model Maximum Likelihood Estimation ML estimation in the model with a spatially lagged dependent variable ML estimation in the model with spatial autoregressive error terms Concluding comment Instrumental Variables or Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Generalized Method of Moments Estimation Tests for Spatial Dependence Moran's / Test Maximum Likelihood Based Tests Concluding Remarks 57 Chapter 4. The Spatial Distribution of Innovative Activity Introduction The Evolutionary Nature of Technological Change and Its Economic Geography GO The Nature of Knowledge as an Input of Innovation The Nature of Innovation and Its Geographic Context The Nature of Technological Regimes and Its Geographic Context The Discontinuous Nature of Technological Change and Its Geographic Context Basic Analysis of Spatial Patterns of Innovation G Data The Spatial Distribution of Innovative Activity 70

4 4.3.3 The Spatial Concentration and Cunmlativeness of Innovative! Activity Exploratory Spatial Data. Analysis The Spatial Weights Matrix Moran's / Statistic Moran Scatterplot Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis Results: The Space- Time Evolution of Innovative Activity Concluding Remarks 97 Chapter 5. Knowledge Spillovers, Agglomeration Economies, and the Geography of Innovative Activity Introduction Knowledge Spillovers and the Geography of Innovative Activity Knowledge Spillovers and Agglomeration Economies Empirical Findings on Knowledge Externalities and the Geography of Innovative Activity Spatial Econometric Model Specifications Base Model Specification Spatial Lag Model Specification Spatial Error Model Specification Spatial Cross-Regressive Model Specification Empirical Results Definition of High Technology Industry Estimation Results The base model The spatial lag model The spatial cross-regressive model Concluding Remarks 128 Chapter 6. Knowledge Spillovers and Regional Economic Growth and Convergence Introduction Empirical Findings on Knowledge Spillovers and Regional Economic Growth and Convergence 133

5 0.3 Econometric Modeling Frameworks, Metropolitan Economic Growth Model Specification Metropolitan Economic Convergence Model Specification Variable Description and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis Data and Description of the Variables Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis Spatial Econometric Analysis and R.esults The Non-Spatial Regression Models The Spatial Lag Model The Spatial Cross-Regressive Model Concluding Remarks 100 Chapter 7. Conclusions Summary and Key Findings Policy Implications 108 Appendices 171 Appendix A. Appendix to Chapter3 172 A.I Statistical Properties of Ordinary Least Squares Estimation in Spatial Dependence Models 172 A.1.1 OLS estimation in the presence of a. spatially lagged dependent variable 172 A.1.2 OLS estimation in the presence of spatial residual autocorrelation 174 A.2 Generalized Instrumental Variables or Spatial Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation 175 Appendix B. Appendix to Chapter B.I Spatial Association Patterns for Innovative Intensity 180 Appendix C. Appendix to Chapter C.I High Technology Industries 184 C.2 Estimation R.esults for Metropolitan Innovative! Activity

6 Appendix D. Appendix to Chapter D.I Moran Scatterplots for Log Per Worker Income and D.2 Moran Scat.terplot Maps for Log Per Worker Income and D.3 Estimation R.esults for Metropolitan Per Worker Income Growth 192 Bibliography 193 Vita 214