REQUEST FOR STATEMENTS OF INTEREST PROJECT TO BE INITIATED IN 2015

Transcription

1 REQUEST FOR STATEMENTS OF INTEREST PROJECT TO BE INITIATED IN 2015 Project Title: Marine species Density Data Gap Assessments and Update for the AFTT Study Area Responses to this Request for Statements of Interest will be used to identify potential investigators for a project to be funded by the Department of the Navy (DoN) Naval Facilities Engineering Command Atlantic (NAVFAC LANT). NAVFAC LANT seeks to develop updated in-water, spatially explicit, density data layers 1 for marine mammals throughout the Atlantic Fleet Training and Testing (AFTT) study area. Background: The DoN is part of the Department of Defense which is a participant of the CESU Network. The DoN is responsible for compliance with a suite of federal environmental and natural resources laws and regulations that apply to the marine environment, including the Endangered Species Act (ESA), the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, the Marine Protection, Research and Sanctuaries Act (MPRSA), Clean Water Act (CWA), Executive Order on Coral Reef Protection, and the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)/Executive Order (EO 12114). Additionally, Federal activities that have the potential to affect the state coastal zone must meet the appropriate degree of consistency with respective state coastal zone management plans mandated by the Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA). NAVFAC LANT has developed a set of in-water density estimates for MMPA and some ESA-listed marine species that occur in waters where it performs training and testing activities, collectively known as the Navy Marine Species Density Database (NMSDD). These estimates are maintained as spatially explicit 1 data layers and are used as inputs to determine the number of estimated acoustic exposures to marine mammals for exercise and other planning purposes, e.g., the Tactical Training Theatre Assessment & Planning (TAP) Program NEPA process. The existing density data require continual update as more recent and accurate data and density modeling approaches become available. Additionally, the science of density estimation is continually improving as new statistical methods become available for integration. Continual improvement to models is required to meet requirements for use of best available science and meet environmental compliance deadlines. The modeling approach must accommodate varying quantities and qualities of data spatially and temporally. A mixture of models will likely be utilized. In addition there have been significant lessons learned from previous rounds of modeling that should be incorporated when updating models within the NMSDD. Brief Description of Anticipated Work: The goal is to update the existing NMSDD modeling framework with new data and statistical methods and to produce updated models for marine species throughout the AFTT study area. Deliverables need to be consistent with current DoN data standards, utilize multiple data types beyond traditional surveys, and utilize advanced spatial modeling techniques at multiple scales. Models need to be developed in such a way as to be readily updateable as new data become available. Specific tasks include: 1 Spatially explicit refers to a property of data that allows a user to locate information in space (e.g. a grid laid over areas of interest or a set of points on a map). These data generally take the form of files compatible with commercial and open source Geographic Information System (GIS) software which allows visualization and analysis of spatial data. Density refers to the number of objects (in this case marine species) in a given area.

2 1) Integrate new aerial and shipboard survey data into the NMSDD modeling framework and remove outdated data. Data is expected to come from multiple sources including NOAA, the Navy, state and not-for-profit agencies, and international surveys. All data must be prepared for inclusion under a common modeling framework. 2) Integrate new statistical methods into the NMSDD modeling framework with a focus on improved uncertainty estimation methods and integration of multiple model types. 3) Create new or updated density models for a subset of 6-10 marine species within the NMSDD each year. Models will cover the entire AFTT study area and will incorporate the data and methods from 1) and 2). Species to be modeled will be prioritized in discussion with the Navy s representative each year. 4) Send proposed methodology and products to the regional NMFS Science Centers and other stakeholders for review. 5) All derived density data are to be made publically available as part of Navy environmental compliance processes. The Cooperator will develop and maintain webservices on a public website for newly developed density layers in order to provide access to data for other parties, to include other Federal agencies such as NMFS and USFWS, requiring insight into how the Navy assesses its potential environmental impacts. 6) Develop a technical report for work accomplished under this contract. Period of Performance: The period of performance for this Cooperative Agreement (base) is expected to be for 12 months from the date of award with four option years. Navy may at its sole option exercise up to four one-year options for follow-on work in the four subsequent fiscal years (four Option Years ) to the successful Recipient(s). Per FAR , Funds are not presently available for these options. Should the Government elect to exercise these options, the Government s obligation under this Cooperative Agreement is contingent upon the availability of appropriated funds for which the payment for contract purposes can be made. No legal liability on the part of the Government for any payment may arise until funds are made available to the Grants Officer for this contract and until the Cooperator receives notice of such availability, to be confirmed in writing by the Grants Officer. Materials Requested for Statement of Interest/Qualifications: Please provide the following via attachment to: (trellis.harris@navy.mil) (Maximum length: 7 pages, single-spaced 12 pt. font) 1. Name, CESU affiliation and contact information 2. Statement of credentials/qualifications of key personnel 3. Project proposal to include timelines, roles and responsibilities of personnel, specific tasks to be conducted, and deliverables. Please be as specific as possible. 4. Cost estimate of the proposed work to include labor, materials and travel. (Note: labor shall include labor category, hourly labor rate and number of hours; materials shall include an itemized breakdown of material, quantity and unit cost and travel shall include number of persons traveling, estimated airfare or privately owned vehicle mileage, estimated rental car and estimated lodging.)

3 Review of Statements Received: Proposals will be evaluated based on the three factors listed below and must include the credentials of key personnel, scientific approach, and reasonableness of cost. Evaluation factors are co-equal to each other. Factor 1 - Credentials of Key Personnel Project Manager. This individual must have: a minimum of a Master s degree in Marine Science or related science disciplines such as Biology, Ecology, or Computer Science; and a minimum of 7 years of experience in a responsible position providing oversight of, support to or directly involved in marine conservation and research; and experience within the last 3 years with and/or oversight responsibility of applied research in modeling in-water density estimates of highly mobile marine animals Technical Staff. Technical Staff must have: a minimum of a Bachelor s degree in Marine Science, Computer Science, or related science disciplines; and a minimum of three years of experience in a responsible position providing oversight of, support to or directly involved in marine conservation and research; and experience within the last two years with and/or oversight responsibility of marine mammal research, marine spatial analysis, or system administration. Factor 2 Scientific Approach The Offeror shall develop a proposal addressing the proposed research and management tasks. The Offeror shall discuss their proposed approach and techniques to accomplish the objectives. Offeror s proposals will be evaluated by a team of technical and contracting personnel from NAVFAC Atlantic. This Factor will be evaluated based on: - The use of methods demonstrated to be at the leading edge of spatial density modeling techniques, and - Knowledge of and access to the data needed to derive density estimates for wide variety of marine mammals, and - Experience completing comparable projects. Factor 3 Reasonableness of Cost The Offeror s proposals shall be analyzed to determine whether they are balanced with respect to prices or separately priced items, and for fair and reasonable pricing. Evaluations will include an analysis to determine the Offeror s comprehension of the requirements of the solicitation as well as to assess the validity of the Offeror s approach. Please send responses or direct questions to: Trellis Harris Contract Specialist NAVFAC Atlantic Environmental Contracts Branch Phone: (757) trellis.harris@navy.mil

4 Timeline for Review of Statements of Interest: We request that Statements of Interest be submitted 22 May 2015 by 4pm EST. This Request for Statements of Interest will remain open until that time.

5 Qualitative use of survey data Quantitative use of survey data If RES Model Includes Survey Data STATEMENT OF WORK Marine species Density Data Gap Assessments and Update for the AFTT Study Area I. BACKGROUND The US Navy is responsible for compliance with a suite of federal environmental and natural resources laws and regulations that apply to the marine environment, including the Endangered Species Act (ESA), the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, the Marine Protection, Research and Sanctuaries Act (MPRSA), Clean Water Act (CWA), Executive Order on Coral Reef Protection, and the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)/Executive Order (EO 12114). Additionally, Federal Activities that have the potential to affect the state coastal zone are required to be consistent with respective state coastal zone management plans mandated by the Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA). The Navy Marine Species Density Database is the authoritative source of marine species density data maintained by the Navy. These data comprise multiple sources and quality levels and are used as inputs to determine the number of estimated acoustic exposures, specifically for the Tactical Training Theatre Assessment & Planning (TAP) Program NEPA process. The Navy updated the density data in 2014 to include all of the Atlantic Fleet Training and Testing (AFTT) Study Area for Phase III of the TAP program. This update created new density predictions for most marine mammal species that had sightings data within the AFTT Study Area. These data are included based on a hierarchy of preference based on the quality and methods of derivation (Figure 1). The result is one master set of seasonal Atlantic density data that are Density used in the Navy Estimation Acoustic Effects Model (NAEMO) to assess marine mammal exposures. High SURVEY DATA EFFORT DENSITY DERIVATION Most to least desirable DENSITY SPATIAL MODEL EXAMPLE Spatial density models such as those available in SDSS (SWFSC and some species in NODE) DESIGN-BASED/STRATIFIED DENSITY (Traditional survey, Literature derived) U.S. NMFS govt-to-govt calculations/pubs, peerreviewed scientific literature. NMFS Stock Assessments or regional assessments DENSITY BASED ON RES MODELS Density based on Kaschner et al global Relative Environmental Suitability (RES) model and survey data (SMRU Ltd) or global population (Kaschner) Low EXTRAPOLATION FROM ANY OF ABOVE NMFS pubs, foreign govt, peerreviewed publications, gray literature, etc. to support extrapolation. Primarily for some pier side species Figure 1. Phase II NMSDD Hierarchy for data inclusion. 1

6 A significant data source in the NMSDD is relative environmental suitability based models and extrapolative density estimates. These data are utilized because the Navy s study area extends beyond the region of most surveys and therefore needs to consider all predictive models available to fill in data gaps. New surveys occur frequently and the science of density estimation is constantly advancing, necessitating frequent updates to the NMSDD to ensure that the marine species density models included represent best available science. Use of best available science is the mandate for Navy environmental compliance efforts. Given the amount of data to process, the complexity of the models being developed, and the limited time available do perform work under a scope such as this, an incremental approach to updating density models, as opposed to wholesale replacement of all models at once, is advisable, less expensive per annum, and allows more flexibility when targeting methodological improvements and species of concern. II. STATEMENT OF WORK The purpose of this Cooperative Agreement is to augment and refine/update the NMSDD in the Atlantic Fleet Testing and Training (AFTT) Study Area. The primary focus of this task order will be to incorporate newly available aerial and shipboard survey data into the existing density modeling framework and to update models for species that have older models, are particularly sensitive, or that require a high number of take authorizations under the ESA or MMPA. The models in the AFTT portion of the NMSDD were designed to be regularly updated with new data and methods, allowing for a steady state investment approach and incremental improvement. This SOW provides for a base year update and 4 option years that will, if exercised, provide one annual update per option year. Consistency across various Navy projects addressing impacts to marine mammals is critical. Any density models produced under this SOW will need to be consistent with current AFTT models and with the NMSDD except as directed by the COR. Density data developed under this task order will be considered the best available and used across several Navy at-sea training and testing environmental compliance programs off the East Coast of the United States, and for pier side in-water construction. The selected Cooperator is expected to coordinate data collection with government contractors and Navy CORs responsible for supporting other ongoing environmental compliance actions. This is to ensure that all sources of data including internal Navy sources of data are considered for possible inclusion. The COR and USFF will assist with the identification and coordination among Navy programs. All derived density data are to be made publically available as part of the EIS process. This will allow the public to use the same data as the Navy in understanding how the Navy estimated potential acoustic effects on marine mammals. A. Services Required: Task 1. Integrate new survey data into the modeling framework: New survey data are continually becoming available and need to be integrated into the density modeling framework to replace outdated data and ensure that models reflect the best available science. The Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit Member will work with the COR to identify and integrate new sources of survey data and remove outdated data. Potential data will need to be screened to ensure it meets the requirements for inclusion into a density modeling framework and will require close coordination with data providers. Data will then need to be cleaned and standardized for inclusion. Data sources to target for inclusion include but are not limited to; North Atlantic Right Whale surveys, Navy funded aerial surveys, state sponsored aerial or shipboard surveys, surveys undertaken by not-for-profits, and National Marine Fisheries Service aerial and shipboard surveys. A particularly high value dataset to target are the Atlantic Marine Assessment Program for Protected Species (AMAPPS) aerial and shipboard surveys. These surveys were undertaken by the NMFS and were partially funded by the Navy and should be considered the highest priority data for inclusion because of their broad geographical and temporal coverage. Also of high value are surveys from outside the U.S. exclusive economic zone that were not available for the 2014 models, including: the Trans North Atlantic Sighting Surveys (TNASS) near Canada, Greenland, Iceland, 2

7 and other parts of the North Atlantic; a survey of the southern Gulf of Mexico reported by J. Ortega-Ortiz; and portions of the SCANS I and II surveys. Integration of these data may improve the accuracy of the models in certain regions of the AFTT, particularly the north and east, and facilitate expansion of the study area. Task 2. Integrate updated statistical methods into the modeling framework: The Cooperator will incorporate improved statistical methods into the density modeling framework based on recent advances in best available science. A high priority for inclusion will be improved methods for estimating and incorporating uncertainty from multiple sources. Specific examples are provided below but should be considered non-exhaustive. Others may be added/subtracted as modifications or in discussions between the COR and Cooperator. Not all will be expected to be accomplished in a given base or option year. Priorities will be set in discussion between the COR and Cooperator. Currently the AFTT data exist as two primary sources nearshore, survey based models and offshore, extrapolative models. Some effort will be placed on refining the integration of these two types of models (edge effects) and incorporating outside density models, such as those produced independently by NMFS within US waters. The 2014 models provided quantitative estimates of uncertainty for the extensively surveyed East Coast and Gulf of Mexico regions, and a qualitative classification of uncertainty in the remainder of the AFTT. The Cooperator will investigate and, if possible, implement improvements to both uncertainty measures. The 2014 quantitative estimate only reflected statistical uncertainty in the habitat model. Methods will be explored to include statistical uncertainty in the detection functions and the availability and perception bias estimates (the g 0 parameter). The Cooperator will investigate using a bootstrapping approach to accomplish this as alternatives in consultation with statistical experts. The Cooperator will also investigate cross-validation approaches to assessing uncertainty or predictive performance, as has been done with recent papers published by NOAA SWFSC. The 2014 models were built by averaging a time series of predictions (e.g. averaging 46 8-day climatological predictions in a year-round prediction). Quantitative uncertainty was estimated the same way. The Cooperator should investigate whether this approach properly summarizes uncertainty or whether an alternative approach would be more appropriate. Finally, the 2014 qualitative uncertainty classification reflected only what kind of extrapolation was done. The Cooperator should investigate whether this could be improved by, for example, incorporating additional uncertainty codes when extrapolation occurs in an unsurveyed biogeographic province. A comparable density effort in the Pacific Ocean is underway and will be exploring the issue of remedying discontinuities (edge effects) between different model types. The Cooperator will coordinate with researchers in the Pacific to explore solutions to this problem. Travel for collaborators from universities and other institutions external to the Cooperator participating in method development may be supported. If necessary, a subcontract for advanced statistical consulting from a member of a collaborative academic institution may be useful for the timely development and validation of new statistical methods described in the above tasks. Task 3. Updated density models for select species: The Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit Member will use the new data (as well as older data deemed to still be relevant) and implement the methods refined in Task 2 to produce updated density models for the AFTT Study Area including all Navy ports and pierside locations depicted, including the area up to the NGA 250K shoreline data. The Navy will provide a list of priority pier side locations so that data gathering efforts can be focused. Models will be produced and where possible, monthly predictions will be made. Annual estimates are acceptable given data limitations. The Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit Member will produce a both a nearshore, survey based model and an offshore, extrapolative model for each species, minimizing edge effects where scientifically supportable. If sufficient and appropriate new data are acquired, the Cooperator will also use them to assess and report on the predictive performance of the 2014 models, using the new data as a test data set. The Cooperator will investigate the technical feasibility of and execute new or updated models for the following taxa, where possible: 3

8 Updated models for 6-10 marine mammal taxa included in the 2014 models. The Cooperator will determine priorities in discussion with the COR. New models for sea turtles species, including: loggerhead turtle, Kemp s ridley turtle, leatherback turtle, and green turtle. If possible, new species-specific models for beaked whale species that were modeled as the beaked whales or pilot whales group in the 2014 models. Species-specific models may be possible with improvements in species identifications made by NOAA with the AMAPPS surveys. Priority to be determined in discussion with the COR. Where possible, the Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit Member will coordinate with any NMFS science center modeling efforts to incorporate any updates they may provide. The density data will be in the unit of number of animals per square kilometer. Combining species data deficient or rare species into guilds is also acceptable with COR consultation and approval. This would likely involve data stakeholder review and feedback on possible suggestions based on expert opinion (see Task 4). All species/guilds present within the AFTT Study Area will have a derived density estimate based on the best available data/science for all months (even if the underlying model is annual). This will include an estimate of data quality and validation of some of the predictive models where possible. Acceptable metrics for estimating data quality will be discussed with the COR. The density data will be used in and formatted for inclusion in NAEMO. Formatting guidelines will be provided by the COR and the Navy will be open to hearing suggested improvements from the Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit Member. The results, including the estimated density values, need to be made available to the public (Task 5). Only data, for which the computed density results can be made available to the public, shall be included in the density data files. The Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit Member, with the assistance of the COR, will prepare data request letters to be sent by the COR. Travel for collaborators from universities and other institutions external to the Cooperator participating in method development may be supported. Metadata will be developed for all files in accordance of the instructions listed in the Geographic Data Documentation section in this scope of work. The additional purpose of the metadata would be to allow the user to trace back information on the data source of each density cell, as it is often infeasible to place a full citation(s) in the attribute fields of spatial data. Task 4. Data stakeholder review of the new models: The updated NMSDD models will be sent to the regional NMFS Science Centers and other survey data providers for review. The group should include at a minimum all the stakeholders currently engaged in Navy density estimation efforts (list to be provided by the COR). Other stakeholders, species experts, or modeling experts can be added as necessary at the discretion of the Cooperator and COR. This would allow for expert feedback on any possible anomalies from the expected abundance/distribution of known species. The Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit Member will give the group a minimum of 30 days to review the models and provide feedback. This may entail an in-person meeting inviting the stakeholders to go over the methods developed so they can understand how the models were derived and what is expected of them. A summary report of any feedback and meeting outcomes will be provided to the COR Travel for collaborators from universities and other institutions external to the Cooperator participating in method development may be supported. Task 5. Create/update webservices to maintain data availability: The Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit Member will make the updated NMSDD density data available to the public on a website. Web services should provide a robust solution to visualize and interact with the data, mash up the density layers with other geospatial data/services, and readily link users to metadata, technical reports, and data use information. The selected The Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit Member must demonstrate substantial experience in hosting, serving, visualizing, and manipulating marine geospatial data in an online environment. These new layers will be integrated with existing NMSDD webservices. For Navy wide use, we would like the data deployed via a secured port as ESRI ArcGIS web services to the Navy s Environmental Information Management System (EIMS). The Cooperator may need to acquire a PKI certification in order to 4

9 access the EIMS system. The COR and Navy will be open to exploring best available options to make the density data available to the public. Task 6. Technical report: The Cooperative Ecosystem Studies Unit Member will develop a technical report for documenting all improvements to the modeling framework and detailed descriptions of the new NMSDD models. This report will serve as a comprehensive report on all of the species density models developed for the NMSDD. The report will include the methodology, data sources used, habitat suitability and environmental models, all pertinent statistics on model fit to the data, and figures of each final species model. Interpretive text and validation of models is desirable. A list of the datasets acquired and summary of the amount of survey effort and species sighted should be included in the final technical report. The COR will be given at least 30 days to review and comment on the draft technical report. Any comments must be resolved to the satisfaction of the COR prior to the acceptance of the final technical report. B. Completion Schedule & Deliverables: The period of performance of this project is expected to be 12 months (May 2015 May 2016, hereinafter referred to as the Award Year). The Government reserves the right to exercise up to four individual one-year Option Years from Per FAR , Funds are not presently available for these options. Should the Government elect to exercise these options, the Government s obligation under this Cooperative Agreement is contingent upon the availability of appropriated funds from which payment for contract purposes can be made. No legal liability on the part of the Government for any payment may arise until funds are made available to the Grants Officer for this contract and until the Cooperator receives notice of such availability, to be confirmed in writing by the Grants Officer. The Contractor shall adhere to the following schedule, unless otherwise approved by the COR. Event Kickoff meeting (phone conference) Task 1 New survey data incorporated Task 2 Updated statistical methods Task 3 Final updated models delivered (digital/hard drive) Task 4 Stakeholder Review Meeting/Summary Report Task 5 Webservices Task 6 Technical Report - Draft Task 6 Technical Report - Final Status reports Due Date* May/June of award year September of award year October of award year May of award year TBD May of award year April of award year May of award year Month *Term award year assumes the month of initial award plus 12 months, not fiscal years dates. 5