Developing a Resourcebased Typology of Cities: A review + pitch

Transcription

1 Developing a Resourcebased Typology of Cities: A review + pitch Prof. John Fernández Urban Metabolism Group 19 November 2013 Sustainable Cities RCN MIT

2 Agenda Typologies Motivations Past work History/trends Quantitative work Qualitative work Present work Future work Global urban resource typology Chinese buildings sub-typology 2

3 Typologies What do we mean by this? Different classifications of cities, on the basis of distinguishing characteristics Many possibilities for which characteristics Want to understand broad patterns, as much as generalization is possible To add detail, types may later be divided into sub-types 3

4 Typologies examples Atchley, R. C. (1967). A size-function typology of cities. Demography, 4(2), Jones, K. J., & Jones, W. C. (1970). Toward a typology of American cities. Journal of Regional Science, 10(2),

5 Motivations How to measure sustainability performance? And against what benchmark? Which cities are peer cities? UNEP City-decoupling report KPMG City Typology as Basis for Policy report Case study discovery mechanism Understanding transition dynamics between types? Curiosity: what is the nature of cities? 5

6 Past Work history Began at least as far back as 1937 (Ogburn) Flurry of activity in economic classification during late 60s, early 70s Some interesting findings, e.g. Bettencourt population scaling work anticipated in 1965 (Hadden and Borgatta) Renewed interest in past decade or so 6

7 Past Work trends Notion of typology most prominent in urban design & architecture literature Urban form Past research concentrated in highly developed countries, e.g. global cities Primarily economic foundations Not much focus on urban resource use 7

8 Past Work quantitative Economic Atchley 1967 (sector employment + population) Jones & Jones 1970 (various US census data) Beaverstock et al (world cities, service sector) Taylor 2005 (global cities defined by firm networks) Furdell & Wolman 2006 (weak market subtypology) Strumsky et al (innovation networks) Resource-based National scale work, e.g. Krausmann et al Saldivar-Sali 2010; Khamis 2012 (resource clusters) Chavez & Ramaswami 2013 (import/export balance) 8

9 Past Work qualitative Urban Form Benevolo 1980 (historical distinctions) Ducruet 2007 (port cities subtypology) Gil et al (clustering on geographic features) Frenchman & Zegras 2012 (eras of urban form) Social characteristics Florida 2004 (cities defined by demographic appeal) Evolutionary typology Bai & Imura 2000 (generalized development stages) Methods Materials Flow Analysis Statistics GIS Expertise / observation / thinking a lot 9

10 Present Work MIT Global urban resource typology Chinese building sector sub-typology Materials flow analytical framework Statistics Cluster to identify non-obvious patterns 10

11 Global Resource Typology 11

12 Global Resource Typology results Fairly intuitive Per person consumption lowest in least-developed cities Distinct cluster of Japanese cities Significant North/South difference 12

13 Case study: Chinese Buildings 13

14 Chinese Buildings question How does the resource intensity of the construction industry vary spatially and temporally in Chinese provinces, and can we see evidence of types in this variation? Cluster on Chinese statistical yearbook data from 31 provinces since ~1978: Electricity production Steel production Cement production GDP per capita Service sector GDP Cluster by unique province-year combinations Time variance: less types, more states 14

15 Chinese Buildings clustering results 15

16 Chinese Buildings clustering results 16

17 Chinese Buildings clustering results 17

18 Chinese Buildings results Preliminary evidence of state progression First step towards defining states These are still clusters -- *not* states Statistics: as much art as science Trans-boundary flows evident 18

19 Future Work data gathering Database of urban resource consumption Grubler, A. et al. (2012). Urban Energy Systems. In J. Sathaye (Ed.), Global Energy Assessment (pp ). International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. The World Bank. (2011). Cities and Climate Change: Responding to an Urgent Agenda. (D. Hoornweg, M. Freire, M. J. Lee, P. Bhada-Tata, & B. Yuen, Eds.). Washington, DC. 19

20 Future Work collaboration International collaboration on urban typology + transition/transformation dynamics Geographic + climatically dispersed team Representation from global north and south Engage international stakeholder client Multi-year program and funding 20

21 Contact us Looking forward to your feedback on past, present, and future work alike:, Karen Noiva, John Fernández, 21

22 References Atchley, R. C. (1967). A size-function typology of cities. Demography, 4(2), Bai, X., & Imura, H. (2000). A comparative study of urban environment in East Asia: a stage model of urban environmental evolution. International Review of Environmental Strategy, 1(1), Beaverstock, J., Smith, R., & Taylor, P. (1999). A roster of world cities. Cities, 16(6), doi: /s (99) Chavez, A., & Ramaswami, A. (2013). Articulating a trans-boundary infrastructure supply chain greenhouse gas emission footprint for cities: Mathematical relationships and policy relevance. Energy Policy, 54, doi: /j.enpol Ducruet, C. (2007). A metageography of port-city relationships, Florida, R. (2004). Cities and the Creative Class. Routledge. Frenchman, D., & Zegras, C. (2012). Making the Clean Energy City in China: Year 2 Report. Furdell, K., & Wolman, H. (2006). Toward understanding urban pathology: Creating a typology of weak market cities. Washington, DC. Gil, J., Beirão, J. N., Montenegro, N., & Duarte, J. P. (2012). On the discovery of urban typologies: data mining the many dimensions of urban form. Urban Morphology, 16(1), Grubler, A. et al. (2012). Urban Energy Systems. In J. Sathaye (Ed.), Global Energy Assessment (pp ). International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. 22

23 References (cont d) Hadden, J. K., & Borgatta, E. F. (1965). American Cities. New York: Rand McNally and Co. Jones, K. J., & Jones, W. C. (1970). Toward a typology of American cities. Journal of Regional Science, 10(2), Khamis, A. (2012). Developing a Typology of Urban Resource Consumption. In 1st Civil and Environmental Engineering Student Conference. London: Imperial College London. KPMG Advisory. (2010). City typology as the basis for policy. Amstelveen, The Netherlands. Ogburn, W. F. (1937). Social Characteristics of Cities. Chicago, IL, USA: International City Managers Association. Saldivar-Sali, A. N. (2010). A Global Typology of Cities: Classification Tree Analysis of Urban Resource Consumption. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Retrieved from Strumsky, Deborah and Jean C. Thill Profiling U.S. Metropolitan Regions by Their Social Research Networks and Regional Economic Performance, Journal of Regional Science, DOI: /jors Taylor, P. (2005). Leading world cities: Empirical evaluations of urban nodes in multiple networks. Urban Studies, 42(9), doi: / The World Bank. (2011). Cities and Climate Change: Responding to an Urgent Agenda. (D. Hoornweg, M. Freire, M. J. Lee, P. Bhada-Tata, & B. Yuen, Eds.). Washington, DC. 23

24 Sustainability Transitions Recognizing transition states/types may allow for improved diagnosis, prescription for [urban] transition managers [Governing systems] Economic Social Political Natural Technological trigger transition feedback to systems [Sustainability Outcomes] Physical (material and energy) Resource Flows 24

25 Urban Growth Dynamics Fernández

26 Avg completed building area per capita 1980s 1990s 2000s 26