Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in Thailand. Kampanart PiyathamrongchaI Naresuan University

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1 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in Thailand Kampanart PiyathamrongchaI Naresuan University

2 Outline Background Objectives Concept and technique to assess climate change vulnerability Discussion on vulnerability pattern of Thailand Summary

3 Background Office of Natural Resources and Environment Policy and Planning (ONEP) Climate Change Management Coordination Division National Master Plan on Climate Change

4 Background The master plan provided the information on climate change that would possibly affect to any parts of Thailand. The next step, the Climate Change Adaptation processes are needed to take into account in order to develop National Adaptation Plan of Thailand. One of the very first and important step to develop the NAP is climate change vulnerability assessment.

5 Background Water Management Tourism National Master Plan on Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security Health Settlement and Human Security Natural Resources

6

7 Objectives To study, assess and map climate change vulnerability of the major sectors in Thailand. To construct database and geo-database infrastructure concerning to climate change adaptation. To provide information and overall recommendations to further develop the NAP.

8 Concept and technique to assess climate change vulnerability

9 V=f(E,S,A)

10 CLIMATE CHANGE V E S A V-ESA

11 CC Vulnerability Mapping Hazard Map (Exposures) Sensitivity Map Adaptive Capacity Map GIS VULNERABILITY MAP

12 E xposure Temperature rising Heat Irregular Rainfall Drought Landslide Climate Change Sea level rising Flood Flash Flood Irregular Sea Temperature Stronger Tropical Storm

13 FLOOD Streamflow in each basin Road density 9 years floodprone area Soil Overlay Flood Slope Topography Stream density

14 RCP4.5

15 FLASH FLOOD Rainfall Forest area Basin shape Built-up area Overlay Flash flood Basin size Slope

16 RCP4.5

17 Example: how do crop areas expose to climate change? Crop areas + Drought Crop expose to CC Crop Areas Possibility to exposure in the present and future

18

19 NONGKHAI LOEI UDORNTHANI NONGBUALAMPHU KHONKAEN

20 Which provinces are at risk in each sector? Crop expose to drought risk GIS Zone stat GIS Zone histogram Proportion of crop area in each province + Severity levels weighted by exposure Provincebased crop expose to drought risk level Example: Crop area in which provinces are in drought risk?

21 E Pixel-based exposure level E Province-based exposure level GIS Crop

22 S ensitivity Somethings can indicate sensitivity numerically? Population Density Gross Provincial Product Number of Megaprojects in the province Priority or Hierarchy of cities Sensitivity indicators for human settlement?

23 Population Density Gross Provincial Product S ensitivity Megaprojects in the province Priority or Hierarchy of cities

24 A daptive capacity Somethings can point to the strength of area to adapt? Human Achievement Index (HAI) including 8 main indicators with more 30 indices such as Health index, Life & livelihood index etc. Proportion of urbanised area and other land uses Adaptive capacity indicators for human settlement?

25 Human Achievement Index (HAI) A daptive capacity Proportion of urbanised area and other land uses

26 Settlement and Human Security E S A Impact

27 Settlement and Human Security E S A Vulnerability

28 Discussion on vulnerability pattern of Thailand

29 Vulnerability of Tourism Agriculture and Food Security Health Settlement and Human Security Vulnerability map Natural Resources

30 Vulnerability maps 2015 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

31 Vulnerability maps 2035 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

32 Vulnerability maps 2055 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

33 Bangkok Nakornsawan Khonkaen Nakornratchasrima Surin Ubonratchathani Burirum Kampaengphet Srisaket Udornthani 11 highest vulnerability of Thailand RCP Bangkok Nakornsawan Khonkaen Nakornratchasrima Surin Ubonratchathani Burirum Kampaengphet Srisaket Udornthani RCP

34 Vulnerability cluster

35 Group A Agriculture > Settlement > Natural Resources > Health

36 Group B Settlement > Tourism > Natural Resources

37 Group C Health > Agriculture > Natural Resources

38 Group D Settlement > Tourism

39 Group E Natural Resources

40 Summary To assess vulnerability, it is necessary to simulate the future climate change, model the exposures of the sector to risks based on predicted climate data, choose sensitivity indicators and find adaptive capacity of the area. GIS is a powerful tool to analyse and visualise the vulnerability in spatial sense.

41 Thank you.

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