U.S. Origin Coking Coal in the Global Market
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1 U.S. Origin Coking Coal in the Global Market A Seismic Shift in the Global Coal Market 8 th Steel Success Strategies Conference th 30 th November London Marriott Grosvenor Square 1
2 Asia Strong Growth Projected to continue Topics U.S Met Coal Participation Strong Growth Projected to continue Major Issues facing U.S. Mining Industry Projected to continue 2
3 "Our greatest glory is not in never falling but in rising every time we fall Confucius B.C. 3
4 Xcoal Energy & Resources-Profile Privately held company specializing in the export of U.S.A. origin coking, PCI, and anthracite coals to integrated steel mills throughout the world FY2010 Forecast: Revenues in excess of US$2 billion Exports of million tons of U.S. origin coking coal and anthracite Contracts for +14 million tons of rail and throughput capacity to ensure reliable and timely deliveries Supplier of low vol, mid vol, and hi vol coking coal 4
5 Xcoal Energy & Resources Privately held company Latrobe, PA Pittsburgh, PA Baltimore, MD Internationally focused Supplier of: Coking coal (low, mid, & high) Semi-soft coking coal PCI Anthracite 5
6 U.S. East Coast Exports by Company (Year-to-date thru September 2010) Company Metric Tons Xcoal Energy & Resources 7, Alpha Natural Resources 5,302,819 Massey Energy 3,263,699 As the #1 exporter of U.S origin coal, Xcoal has reaffirmed its longstanding commitment to satisfy the requirements of our global customers 6
7 Significant Issues/Events over last year Strong Recovery in Asia Many suppliers switched from Annual Benchmark Pricing to Quarterly Pricing. Is monthly next? Return of U.S. origin coking coal as a long term, sustainable supply source. No longer swing supplier U.S. mining industry able to adapt and take advantage of a changing environment / market place 7
8 Economic Recovery The world economies have moved from Contraction to Expansion less talk about double dip rescission The global recovery appears to be bifurcated, i.e. strong in Asia and other emerging economies but weak in more mature economies The BRIC countries are experiencing stronger recoveries Mature economies, i.e. USA and Western Europe, continue to experience sluggish recoveries 8
9 A Strong Year For U.S. Met Coal In retrospect, 2009 / 2010 may be recorded in the history books as a remarkable time. In the span of the last 12 months, the met coal market experienced both the depths of the credit-crisis-driven decline and the relief of a surprisingly strong recovery. 9
10 Why? The simple answer is China. China s actions in 2009 single handedly changed the perception of most coking coal industry observers As importantly, it changed the role of the U.S. coking coal supplier in the international market 10
11 Chinese Coking Coal & Met Coke Source Coking Coal Exports Met Coke (reference only) Export & Import Changes (basis Jan-Dec 08 vs. Jan-Dec 09) Metric Tons (rounded) 2,820,000 (removed from seaborne market) 12,319,000 (converted to Coking coal equivalent below) Met Coke (Coal Equivalent) 16,765,000 (required from other sources) Coking Coal Imports Total Additional Demand 47,221,000 27,636,000 (additional seaborne demand) The additional demand represents approximately 20% of the global seaborne market for coking coal 11
12 U.S. Coking Coal Update Most U.S. coking coal producers entered the late 2008 downturn in sound financial shape providing important flexibility Breathing room to make difficult decisions including slashing production Despite regulatory and financial environment restricts, U.S. mining industry was able to expand coking coal production 12
13 U.S. Coking Coal Mine Capacity Levels million metric tons million metric tons million metric tons 2010 (est...) 70 million metric tons Includes crossover tons Significant potential for additional tonnage of Hi Vol hard coking coal from the USA 13
14 U.S. Coking Coal Demand-North America North American Demand: million metric tons million metric tons million metric tons North American coke makers need an additional 2.8 million tons of coking coal (Xcoal estimate) 14
15 U.S. Coking Coal Exports Exports (Includes Canada): million metric tons million metric tons 2010(est.) 55 million metric tons 62% increase in coking coal exports from the USA in FY2010 (Xcoal estimate) 15
16 51% increase
17 U.S. Coking Coal Exports Shifting Trade Patterns (YTD Sept10) FOUR (4) of the top TEN (10) export destinations for USA origin coal during FY2010 are located in Asia versus ONE (1) in FY2009 The year-to-year tonnage increases to these Asian customers are at historical highs As the mature economies in Western Europe improve, and the emerging economies in Eastern Europe and South American continue to grow, demand for USA origin coal will continue to increase 17
18 Asia Demand -Affects on U.S. Coking Coal Supply Australia and Canada first beneficiaries of increased coking coal demand from China Increased demand from non-chinese consumers can t be supplied easily by Australia or Canada U.S. coal suppliers called upon to satisfy increased demand not only in traditional markets, but also Asian markets, including China and India 18
19 U.S. East Coast - Coal Export Tonnage (Year-to-Date thru September 10) Destination Metric Tons (rounded) FY2009 Tonnage YTD Sept 09 % Change 1 Brazil 4,067,734 3,622, Netherlands 3,744,861 2,789, China 2,439, , Japan 2,110, , United Kingdom 1,945,429 1,384, France 1,925,742 2,232,347-14% 7 Korea 1,871, , Italy 1,836,990 1,507, India 1,836,027 1,282, Ukraine 1,653, ,
20 U.S. Origin Coal Volumes Destination to Customers in Asia (FY2010/2011 Forecast) Japan 3,800,000 Korea 2,800,000 China 7,000,000 Taiwan 300,000 India 2,500,000 Total Additional Demand 16,400,000 Metric Tons (rounded) The additional demand represents an increase of approximately 48% in U.S. coking coal exports 20
21 Million Tons Primary U.S. Met Coal Destinations Asia Europe South America Canada E 2010 Data: Q1 actuals multiplied by 4 Source: EVA 21
22 Million Tons U.S. Metallurgical Coal Exports by Port Baltimore Norfolk/Newport News Mobile New Orleans E 2010 Data: Q1 actuals multiplied by 4 Source: EVA 22
23 Million Tons U.S. Port Capacity & Load Baltimore Norfolk/Newport News Mobile NOLA Others Source: Historical data from EIA's Annual and Quarterly Coal Reports; 2010 data from EVA's "U.S. Coal Trade Report"; Capacity from Patriot Coal analysis 23
24 What s next? The simple answer may be India 24
25 F 2011F 2015F 2020F Million Tonnes Asian Demand Growth will Approximate 70 tonnes by CAGR = 4.0% Other South America North America Japan Commonwealth of Independent States European Union 150 India 100 China 50 Estimated Seaborne 0 Source: McCloskey's "Metallurgical Coal Quarterly", #33 25
26 India: India's steel demand grew 7.5% during the global economic crisis and is expected to grow by 8.2% and 13.6% in 2010 and 2011, respectively, according to the World Steel Association October 2010 short range outlook. With 68 million metric tonnes of apparent steel use in 2011, India will become the third largest steel using country in the world after China and the US. India's steel use will be 32% above its 2007 level. 27
27 India- The next China Growth Story? Coal imports in FY forecasted to increase by 21% as compared to FY Coking coal imports forecasted to exceed 30 million tonnes in 2010 Coking coal imports have increased by approximately 10% per annum since
28 India- The next China Growth Story? India is expected to become the second largest coking coal importer after Japan by Imports into India are expected to double from 30 Mt to 60 Mt by The growth can be attributed to 65Mt of new blast furnace capacity expected to be commissioned in the next 3-5 years. Steel consumption per capita well below China and other developing countries 28
29 Steel Consumption per capita Source-BHP Billiton-Global Steel 2010-Goa 29
30 Financial Considerations Affecting Coking Coal Supplies Cost: Productivity down due to geology and effects of regulatory actions Seams more difficult to mine Lower yield 35%-50% recovery is now typical versus previous levels of 65%-75% CAPEX for development of greenfield US coking coal projects ranges from $150-$200/annualized ton, requiring significant cash margins to support investments 30
31 Matters Affecting U.S. Coking Coal Supplies Infrastructure: Sufficient but coming under pressure/stretched to limits U.S. railways responded but also under pressure to support increased volumes from other segments Capital: Directed toward coking coal projects Currency Exchange Rates US$ Forecasted to remain weak Supports the export of U.S. origin coal 31
32 Matters Affecting U.S. Coking Coal Supplies Labor: Stable now but could change with increase to 2008 production levels would require increased demand for thermal coal Regulation: Government regulatory agencies, i.e. EPA, MSHA, DEP, etc., create an uncertain environment for investments It is no exaggeration to say that coal mining is under regulatory siege. 32
33 Supply Chain Improvements (1) To ensure a sustainable, efficient, and competitive supply chain for U.S. origin coal to customers in Asia, Xcoal, in cooperation with CSL International, implemented the following ocean shipping procedure Load 180,000 DWT-210,000 DWT capesize vessels to the maximum sailing draft at the coal export terminals located in Baltimore, Maryland or Hampton Roads, Virginia Load a 55,000 DWT-75,000 DWT belted self unloading vessel at the coal export terminals located in Baltimore, Maryland or Hampton Roads, Virginia 33
34 Supply Chain Improvements (2) The two vessels meet at a protected anchorage near Canso, Nova Scotia where the belted unloading vessel transfers its cargo to the large capesize vessel The large capesize vessel sails to discharge ports in Asia with a cargo of 180, ,000 metric tonnes of coal The customers realize the benefit of lower ocean freight which reduces the delivered cost of U.S. origin coal The loading terminal realizes the efficiency improvements and increased capacity resulting from the use of larger vessels 34
35 Top-off Operation 35
36
37
38 Summary (1) In the greatest economic collapse in 80 years, the prices of coking coal stabilized at price levels which support reasonable returns on investment, i.e. no repeat of the pricing death spirals which resulted from previous market declines Both steel companies and coking coal suppliers exhibited market and production discipline to protect shareholder value U.S. companies with potential to increase coking coal production has announced expansion 38
39 Summary (2) Return of U.S. origin coking coal as a long term, sustainable supply source for the International market Fundamentally, the global coking coal market appears tight China s move to a significant importer structurally changes the seaborne coking coal market 39
40 Summary (3) We believe China will continue to import at comparable levels. India imports to grow U.S. coking coal suppliers directed significant quantities of coking coal to customers in Asian Pacific region Pricing for FY2010/11 seaborne coking coal contracts will be a combination of fixed annual prices and quarterly pricing 40
41 Summary (4) Contracts based on annual pricing during 2010 secured a premium compared to spot or quarterly pricing The Asian Pacific market set the coking coal pricing benchmarks for the global steel industry and will continue to be the price setter Continued investments from, and acquisitions by, foreign steel companies, i.e. the Chinese steel companies will join the Indian, Russian, and Ukrainian companies which recently invested in U.S. coking coal mines 41
42 Credits American Iron & Steel Institute John T. Boyd Company Macquarie Research McCloskey Group T. Parker Host World Steel Association World Steel Dynamics 42
43 Contact Info Jack Porco Xcoal Energy & Resources Phone +1 (724) Fax +1 (724) Mobile +1 (412) Web Site 43
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