ESPA Deltas: ASSESSING HEALTH, LIVELIHOODS, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN POPULOUS DELTAS

Transcription

1 : ASSESSING HEALTH, LIVELIHOODS, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN POPULOUS DELTAS Presented by Prof. Robert J. Nicholls University of Southampton

2 Plan Introduction Consortium Project Details Concluding Remarks

3 Threatened Deltas Population potentially displaced by current sea level trends to 2050 Extreme = >1 million; High = 1 million to 50,000; Medium = 50,000 to 5,000 people Source: IPCC AR4 using data in Ericson et al. (2006)

4 Main Study Site Pakistan New Delhi India Nepal China Kathmandu R. Ganges R. Brahmaputra Thimphu Bhutan India R. Meghna Burma Dhaka Bangladesh

5 Bangladesh Case Study Area

6 ESPA Delta: Project Aims In Coastal Bangladesh To engage relevant stakeholders throughout the project via participatory methods. To understand the present relationship between ecosystem services and human well-being and health. To predict how these ecosystem services might evolve over the coming years and decades (up to 50 years). To analyse how policy can influence these outcomes and promote ecosystem services and human well-being and health. To select robust policies that are effective across the range of uncertainty. More Broadly To test the transferability of these methods to other populated deltas.

7 ESPA Delta: Example Questions Who are the poor? What are the Ecosystem Services? How and why are these Ecosystem Services changing? What is the role of biophysical change and Ecosystem Services? What implications do the changes have for the poor? How can policy promote ecosystem services and poverty alleviation?

8 Methodological Principles Transition into practice Interdisciplinary: Socio-Economic, Biophysical, Legal Context Multi-scale: Nested study domains Global Ganges- Brahmaputra basin, Bay of Bengal, National, Study Area, Subdivisions of study area, Trans-boundary issues Integrative: Linking model domains, integrated modelling to address policy questions, scenario development, policy testing and sensitivity analysis (with new model development, where necessary) Transferable: Tested conceptually in two other (Indian) sites

9 Key Ecosystem Services Source: BRAC (2007)

10 Example Delta Ecosystem Activities

11 THE CONSORTIUM UK Partners University of Southampton PI Robert Nicholls University of Oxford (Scenario Development) Exeter University (Ecosystem Services and Poverty) Dundee University (Legal context) Hadley Centre MET office (Climate Change Modelling) Plymouth Marine Laboratories (Fisheries Modelling) National Oceanography Centre Liverpool (Marine Modelling)

12 THE CONSORTIUM Indian Partners IIT Roorkee Lead Nayan Sharma PI (Hydrological Modelling) Cotton College, Guwahati (Social Economic context) Aaranyak (Social Economic context) Jadavpur University (Mangrove/Ecological Modelling)

13 THE CONSORTIUM Bangladeshi Partners Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) Prof Rahman Lead PI Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS): (Policy) Institute of Livelihood Studies (ILS): (Livelihood) Ashroy Foundation: (Social Survey) Institute of International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) : (Health) Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS): (GIS, Database) Bangladesh Agricultural University (Fisheries, Agriculture) Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI): Agriculture) Technological Assistance for Rural Advancement (TARA): Fisheries/ecology Mohammad Shahad Mahabub Chowdhury (IUCN): ecology Kazi Matin U Ahmed (Dhaka University): Ground Water

14 Project Structure

15 Work Package 1 - Governance Quality of the legal, institutional and policy context: Management of Ecosystem Services (e.g. freshwater, forestry, pollution control, fisheries, protected areas); Extent to which people can escape from poverty (e.g. property rights, control of monopolies, disaster management, availability of information, access to justice); Mediation processes between them (as elucidated in WP2) Engagement with relevant stakeholders - key for: understanding reality of governance context; future policy drivers; scenario development; and research relevance

16 Critical Stakeholder Interventions Nicholls Consortia Presentation ESPA Consortia Workshop Sept 2012

17 Three Key Stakeholder interventions Initial Policy Questions (WP2) Salinity impacts on rice Development of agro-business Coastal defence options Impacts of upstream interventions Development of Scenarios (WP4) Economic trends/gdp Commodity pricing Socio-economics Governance Trans boundary issues Intervention testing (WP6) Running policy interventions on the model Conducting policy sensitivity analysis Handling Uncertainty

18 Scenario Building (WP4)

19 Work Package 2 Model Conceptualisation Hypotheses Investigating four mechanisms known to mediate between wellbeing and the environment: Seasonality Mobility Property rights Moral economy Each of these mechanisms has positive or negative impacts on the ability of ecosystem services to alleviate poverty depending on characteristics of the: Socio-ecological system Ecosystem service Social status

20 Work Package 2 Applied to 10 socio-ecological systems 1. Mangrove-dominated (Sundarban Impact Zone) 2. Wetland ecosystem services and associated livelihoods 3. Agriculturally dominated incomes (within and outside of polders) 4. Livestock-related livelihoods on newly-accreted charlands 5. Inland capture fisheries 6. Inland culture fisheries 7. Aquaculture systems (shrimp, prawn and crab collection and fattening) 8. Offshore capture fisheries 9. Peri-urban areas 10. Urban areas

21 Work Package 3 Socio-Economic Analysis and Model Aim: To quantify the relationship between poverty and ecosystem services building on WP2. Analysing census data over time to create poverty maps. Examining fertility rates by urban/rural and province for projections Reviewing best software for projections Preparing demographic projections Planning surveys with WP2

22 Bangladesh Case Study Area (about 250 Unions and data for three census periods)

23 WP5 Integrated Biophysical Model (incomplete missing Mangrove model) PML Sea level, storms BUET NOC PML Delta Model FVCOM Bay Bengal Model GCOMS Met Office GCMs/ RCMs Hadley Centre Temperature, rainfall Catchment Models GWAVA / INCA (Oxford) Groundwater (BUET Morphodynamics (Soton) Water, sediment Freshwater, sediment, nutrients Primary productivity Oxford Buet Soton IITR Crop Models CROPWAT, AquaCrop, MAXENT Coastal Fisheries Model Size-based models Soton BARI BAU PML TARA BAU IUCN

24 Work Package 4 Integration and Scenarios Aim Develop scenarios to analyse future outcomes Develop an integrated modelling framework of socioecological systems Tasks Establish baseline status from observations Develop exogenous and endogenous scenarios Develop integrated model framework of socioecological systems building on WP3/WP5 Apply framework in Vensim Outcomes Assessment of scenario development tools South-Asian ecosystem services scenarios

25 ES flows Coastal fishery Magnitude/frequency of cyclones + Sea Level Rise + Social model Land erosion Market price of fish + Employment + opportunities Market price of tourist attractions Population number + Primary + production Nutrients + Nutrition + Mangrove model X Biomass Production rate + + Fish capture Biomass of Fish stock No of Tourists + + X Mortality rate + Hazardous Substances

26 How to consider the ES flows spatially? Inland + Mangrove Inland only river forest settlement ~250 unions shrimp farming agricultural field Mangrove forest Inland + Mangrove + Coastal Inland + Coastal Coastal waters

27 Database for Project Organised by CEGIS, Bangladesh About 400 existing data layers available Augmented with Project data and results

28 Short-term Scientific Outputs Fast Track papers (within first 12 months) An assessment of the key policy issues concerning ecosystem services and poverty alleviation in coastal Bangladesh (WP1) A review of the state of coastal Bangladesh with a focus on ecosystem services and poverty alleviation (WP2) A review of the trends in ecosystem services in coastal Bangladesh: A preliminary assessment (WP5)

29 Short-term Scientific Outputs Conference Papers ICWFM 2013 (4th) to be held in Bangladesh: March 2013 Loss of Ecosystem Services in Shrimp Aquaculture area and its impact on livelihood of Poor People (WP2) Assessment of Coastal Ecosystem component in Changed hydrological condition (WP5) Application of remote sensing and GIS in measuring water quality of the major water bodies in the Ganges delta (WP5) Changes in the Biomass Content in Sundarban Area: A Remote Sensing Approach (WP5) Spatial and Temporal Trend of tidal range and salinity in the Bengal Delta (WP5) Application of FVCOM in Simulating the Ecosystem Parameters in the Coastal region of the Bay of Bengal : Developing a Model of the Region

30 CONCLUDING REMARKS The ESPA Delta project is making significant progress across a broad range of academic areas including: Analysis of governance Participatory methods Ecosystem services and human well-being in deltas Integrated assessment methods All this work is focussed on understanding the relationship between ecosystem services and poverty alleviation in deltas and the potential role of policy in shaping outcomes Early outputs will be available in Spring 2013 Thanks to all the Consortium members.

31 : ASSESSING HEALTH, LIVELIHOODS, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN POPULOUS DELTAS Presented by Prof. Robert J. Nicholls University of Southampton