Demography, Time and Space

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1 Demography, Time and Space Martin Bell The University of Queensland WD Borrie Lecture Australian Population Association 2014 Conference Hobart, Tasmania Wednesday December 3rd 2014 Professor WD (Mick) Borrie CRICOS Provider No 00025B

2 Demography Definition: The scientific study of population, with a central focus on the size, distribution and composition of population, and the processes of population change. Essence of a discipline: Substantive focus Theoretical constructs Analytical methods Data sources Core problems

3 Fissiparous (!) CRICOS Provider No 00025B

4 End of the Demographic Transition? Source: van Dalen and Henkens 2012 DOI: /DemRes

5 Demography and Time

6 Demographic Transition Theory the central preoccupation of modern demography. Caldwell 1996

7 Lexis Diagrams Age Age-Time plan depicting the relationship between age, period and birth cohort. Age and time divided into equal intervals Lifelines show individual aging Events fall into age time intervals Links population stocks and flows Framework for the assembly and analysis of demographic data a+3 a+2 a+1 Period-Age Period-Age Period- Cohort a,t t+1 t+2 t+3 Time

8 Age at Migration & Life Course Events Age at peak migration Education Labour completion, force entry, women men Union formation, men First child, women Source: Bernard, A., Bell, M. and Charles-Edwards, E. [2014]: Life-course transitions and the age profile of internal migration, Population and Development Review, 40(2):

9 Demography and Space

10 John Snow and the Soho cholera epidemic ommons/c/cb/john_snow_memorial_a nd_pub.jpg

11 The European Fertility Project Source: Woods, R. (1979): Population Analysis in Geography, Longman

12 Problems with Spatial Aggregates Ecological Fallacy: Making inferences about processes at the level of individuals from analysis of data about the groups to which they belong MAUP Modifiable Areal Unit Problem: Aggregated values vary according to (a) the number of units into which a region is divided (scale effect) and (b) the way the boundaries are drawn (pattern effect)

13 Four Domains of Spatial Demography 1. Spatial differentiation GWR, Spatial clustering, Moran s I 2. Modelling spatial diffusion Event history, Multi-level regression 3. Location/allocation modelling Thiessen polygons, SIMs 4. Areal estimation Remote sensing, areal interpolation

14 Estimating Population Population Distribution; Cyprus Source: Landscan Population Density India Source: CIESEN/GRUMP

15 Gridded Population Data 100m 2 West Africa Benin Source: Worldpop.org.uk CRICOS Provider No 00025B

16 Example of aggregation: Germany 412 BSUs 200 ASRs 150 ASRs CRICOS Provider No 00025B 100 ASRs 50 ASRs 10 ASRs

17 The MAUP and the MEI Source: The IMAGE Project: see

18 Comparing Migration Effectiveness Source: The IMAGE Project: see

19 Space-time convergence

20 Global Migration Intensities One year intensities Iceland Australia Finland Zambia Kenya Canada Norway Sweden USA Denmark Tanzania UK Switzerland Belgium Netherlands Germany Sudan Colombia Greece Austria Japan Hungary Turkey Israel Ireland Belarus Lithuania Latvia Italy Portugal Estonia Malta Bulgaria Czech Republic Burkina Faso Romania Cyprus Spain Slovakia Croatia Ukraine Slovenia Russian Federation Poland Macedonia ACMI (%) Fiver year intensities New Zealand 54.7 South Korea 52.8 USA 44.3 Australia 42.4 Fiji 41.3 Canada 38.5 Panama 37.1 Chile 36.2 Switzerland 36.1 Senegal 34.7 France 34.0 Cameroon 32.9 Paraguay 31.0 Japan 28.9 Israel 28.2 Mongolia 27.4 Barbados 26.5 Bolivia 22.9 Kyrgyzstan 22.4 Peru 21.8 Uruguay 21.5 Guinea 21.3 South Africa 21.2 Morocco 20.8 Malta 19.8 Uganda 19.1 Cambodia 18.4 Rwanda 18.1 Greece 18.1 Brazil 17.5 Argentina 17.5 Malaysia 17.1 Costa Rica 16.7 Tunisia 15.9 Ghana 15.0 Guatemala 14.4 Dominican Republic 13.9 Portugal 13.5 China 12.8 Vietnam 12.6 Indonesia 12.4 El Salvador 12.3 Mauritius 12.0 Cuba 11.9 Honduras 11.9 Thailand 11.2 St Lucia 10.9 Nicaragua 10.1 Ecuador 9.6 Haiti 9.5 Philippines 9.3 Spain 8.6 Iraq 8.5 Nepal 8.3 Venezuela 7.8 Mali 7.4 North Korea 6.3 Mexico 6.1 Egypt 5.4 India ACMI (%) CRICOS Provider No 00025B Source: The IMAGE Project: See Bell, M, Charles-Edwards, E, Ueffing, P., Stillwell, J., Kupiszewski, M. and Kupiszewska, D. [forthcoming]: Internal migration and development: comparing migration intensities around the world,

21 Mobility in Space and Time Spatial Boundaries Local Regional National Time Years Months Weeks Days Hours Residential mobility Intra-urban Inter-regional Inter- Rural-urban Inter-urban Urban-rural national Study Vacations Seasonal work Extended recreational travel Long distance commuting Business travel Health care Excursions Visits Commuting Shoppin g Local Region Nation World community Space 12 months 4 weeks 7 days 24 hours

22 Coupling Space and Time Mobility and Migration

23 Tracking Mobility in West Africa Mobile Phone Flowmaps Source: CRICOS Provider No 00025B

24 Tracking Tourists in Noosa See Charles-Edwards, E., Bell, M. & Corcoran, J. [2014]: Integrating undergraduate fieldwork into the study of human mobility, Australian Geographer, 45(4): DOI: /

25 Tracking the St Lucia Campus Population See: Charles-Edwards, E. and Bell, M. [2013]: Estimating the service population of a large metropolitan university campus, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 6(3): DOI /s y

26 Space-Timelines : Daily Activity Patterns CRICOS Provider No 00025B Source: Parkes and Thrift (1980) : Times, Spaces, and Places: A Chronogeographic Perspective, Wiley, New York

27 Capturing Life-Spaces Defining Life Spaces Source: Lelievre & Robette 2010 Lelievre, E. and Robette, N (2010) A Life Space Perspective to Approach Individual Demographic Processes, Canadian Studies in Population, Vol : CRICOS Provider No 00025B Source: Hagerstrand Figure 11 in Carlstein, Parkes and Thrift (1978) : Timing Space and Spacing Time

28 Demography, Space & Time Conclusions

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