Press Release Consumer Price Index December 2018

Transcription

1 [Type text] Press Release Consumer Price Index December 2018 Consumer Price Index, base period December 2006 December 2018 The Central Bureau of Statistics presents the most important findings for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of December The CPI for December 2018 is , an increase of 0.3% compared to the index of November 2018 (122.62). The percentage change of the CPI over the last twelve (12) months (December 2017 to December 2018) is 4.6%, an increase of 4.9 ppts compared to the percentage change for the same period of last year (-0.3%). The period average percentage change of the CPI for the period December December 2018 is 3.6%, an increase of 4.1 ppts compared to the period average percentage change over the period December December 2017 (-0.5%). During this month, four (4) of the twelve (12) sectors registered increases in prices. The increases that had the greatest influence on the CPI were registered for the Communications (8.7%), Recreation and culture (2.6%) and the Food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.0%) sectors, which contributed with an effect of 0.46, 0.22 and 0.15 ppts, respectively. The increase in the remaining sector had an effect of 0.03 ppts on the CPI of December Aforementioned increases were partially offset mainly by decreases in the indices for the Transport (-2.0%) and Clothing and footwear (-1.8%) sectors, causing an effect of and ppts, respectively. The decreases in the remaining sectors had an effect of ppts on the CPI of December The increase in the Communications sector was due to an increase in the category Telephone and telefax services (9.2%), which contributed to an effect of 0.48 ppts. The increase in the Recreation and culture sector was mainly caused by an increase of 59.5% in the category Holidays, which contributed to an effect of 0.29 ppts. The increase in the Food and non-alcoholic beverages sector was mainly due to an increase in the category Food (1.1%), which contributed to an effect of 0.14 ppts. The decrease in the Transport sector was due to a decrease of 4.7% in the category Operation of personal transport equipment, which contributed to an effect of ppts. The decrease in the Clothing and footwear sector was mainly caused by a decrease in the category Clothing (-1.9%), which contributed to an effect of ppts. The consumption basket of the CPI consists of 452 goods and services. Compared to November 2018, 34.5% of these products had an increase in price, causing an effect of 1.30 ppts, while 35.8% showed a decrease, contributing to an effect of ppts and the remaining 29.6% had no change in price. The prices of goods decreased by 0.8% and caused an influence of ppts. The prices of services showed an increase of 2.3% and had an influence of 0.84 ppts on the CPI of December The CPIC (core inflation) - CPI excluding the effect of energy and food was 2.6% in December 2018, which is 2.3 ppts higher compared to the percentage change for the same period of last year (0.3%). The energy index - which consists of the products: electricity, water, gasoline and diesel was 4.3%, which is 8.5 ppts higher compared to the percentage change for the same period of last year (-4.2%). The food index showed an increase of 7.9%, which is 7.1 ppts higher compared to the percentage change for the same period of last year (0.8%). The subsistence level for a household consisting of two (2) adults and two (2) children (aged 0-14 years) in December 2018 is Afl. 4,596, while for a single adult household it is Afl. 2,189. CPI (BASE DEC 2006 = 100) Index Monthly 0.3 Year-to-date 4.6 End of period 4.6 Period average 3.6 Goods -0.8 Services 2.3 CPIC January 22, 2019 DECEMBER 2018 CPIC 2.6 Energy 4.3 Food 7.9 SUBSISTENCE LEVEL in AFL. 1 adult 2,189 2 adults + 2 children 4,596 CPIC: CPI excluding the effect of energy and food. Energy: Electricity, water, gasoline and diesel. SUBSISTENCE LEVEL: The minimum level of income which is perceived necessary to achieve an adequate standard of living. L.G. Smith Boulevard 160 I Oranjestad, Aruba I Tel: I Fax: I I January 22,

2 [Type text] Press Release Consumer Price Index December 2018 Table 1 Overview percentage change of the CPI Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Index Monthly Year-to-date End of period Period average Goods Services CPIC Energy Food adult 2,067 2,075 2,106 2,112 2,118 2,122 2,131 2,162 2,157 2,157 2,161 2,178 2,189 2 adults + 2 children 4,340 4,357 4,422 4,435 4,447 4,457 4,476 4,539 4,529 4,530 4,539 4,574 4,596 Table 2 Percentage change by sector Percentage changes Weight Effect Monthly Year-to-date End of period Period average Sector coefficient Nov - Dec Nov - Dec Dec - Dec Dec 17 - Dec 18 Dec 17 - Dec 18 CPI 10, Food and non-alcoholic beverages 1, Alcoholic beverages and tobacco Clothing and footwear Housing 2, Household operation Health Transport 1, Communications Recreation and culture Education Restaurants and hotels Miscellaneous goods and services Table 3 Categories with the greatest positive effect on the CPI of December 2018 Monthly Effect Category change Telephone and telefax services Holidays Food Transport services Table 4 Categories with the greatest negative effect on the CPI of December 2018 Monthly Effect Category change Operation of personal transport equipment Audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment Clothing Household appliances L.G. Smith Boulevard 160 I Oranjestad, Aruba I Tel: I Fax: I I January 22,

3 [Type text] Press Release Consumer Price Index December 2018 Change in prices of crude oil, utilities, gasoline and diesel in December 2018 The prices of utilities (electricity and water), gasoline and diesel are for the greater part determined by international crude oil prices. In December 2018 the average price per barrel of crude oil (US$ 49.09) had a decrease of US$ 8.82 (-15.2%) compared to November 2018 (US$ 57.91). The total energy charge per kwh for the usage of electricity up to 500 kwh did not change in December 2018, it stayed at Afl cents per kwh. The total energy charge per kwh for the usage of electricity between kwh did not change in December 2018, it stayed at Afl cents per kwh. Additionally, the total energy charge per kwh for the usage of electricity above 1000 kwh did not change in December 2018, it stayed at Afl cents per kwh. The prices of electricity and water did not change compared to November Subsequently, the average electricity price per household remained at Afl , while the average price of water per household remained at Afl In December 2018 the price of gasoline decreased by Afl cents (-7.1%) causing an effect of ppts on the CPI. The price of diesel registered a decrease of Afl cents (-6.8%) and had an effect of ppts on the CPI of December In December 2018, utilities, gasoline and diesel as a group showed a decrease in price of 2.5% compared to November 2018, and had an influence of ppts on the CPI, while the remaining 448 goods and services, as a group, experienced an increase of 0.9% in price, causing an effect of 0.76 ppts on the CPI. Table 6 Effect on the CPI of December 2018 of goods and services which are dependent on crude oil prices Category Weight Monthly Effect change Electricity Gasoline Water Diesel Total group 1, Remaining goods and services 8, CPI 10, Table 5 Prices of crude oil, utilities, gasoline and diesel, Total Total Total Total Crude energy charge energy charge Crude energy charge energy charge Month oil 500 kwh kwh Electricity Water Gasoline Diesel oil 500 kwh kwh Electricity Water Gasoline Diesel January March March April May June July August September October November December Yearly Average Average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price per barrel in US$ (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration) 2 Total energy charge in Afl. cents per kwh 3 Electricty price in Afl. is based on an average household usage of kwh 4 Water price in Afl. is based on an average household usage 5 Gasoline and diesel prices in Afl. cents per liter L.G. Smith Boulevard 160 I Oranjestad, Aruba I Tel: I Fax: I I January 22,

4 [Type text] Press Release Consumer Price Index December 2018 Change in prices of Food & catering services in December 2018 The Food & catering services index showed an increase of 0.8% in December 2018, after an increase of 1.0% in November The index for Food at home showed an increase of 1.0% in December, as seven (7) of the eleven (11) Food at home indices increased in December The Vegetables index registered the largest increase (10.7%) in December Furthermore, increases were posted in the indices for Meat (0.7%), Fruit (0.7%) and Oils and fats (0.3%). The Fish and other seafood and Potatoes and other tubers indices decreased the most (-2.0%), followed by decreases of 0.6% and 0.5% in the indices for Sugar, jam, honey and other confectionery and Bread and cereals, respectively. Over the last twelve (12) months, the Food & catering services has increased by 9.2%. The Food at home index showed an increase of 11.0%. The Fruit index increased by 27.5%, the largest increase among the Food at home food groups. The index for Food away from home was unchanged in December 2018 and has increased by 3.5% over the last twelve (12) months. In December 2018, Food at home and Food away from home as a group showed an increase in price of 0.8% compared to November 2018, and had an influence of 0.15 ppts on the CPI, while the remaining goods and services, as a group, experienced an increase in price of 0.2%, causing an effect of 0.17 ppts on the CPI. Table 8 Effect on the CPI of December 2018 of Food at home and Food away from home Category Weight Monthly Effect change Food at home 1, Food away from home Total group 1, Remaining goods and services 8, CPI 10, Table 7 Percentage change for Food & catering services Indices Percentage changes Effect Weight coefficient Monthly Monthly End of period Monthly End of period Dec-17 Nov-18 Dec-18 Oct - Nov Nov - Dec Dec 17 - Dec 18 Nov - Dec Dec 17 - Dec 18 Food & catering services 1, Food at home 1, Bread and cereals Meat Fish and other seafood Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Potatoes and other tubers Vegetables Sugar, jam, honey and other confectionery Food products n.e.c Non-alcoholic beverages Food away from home L.G. Smith Boulevard 160 I Oranjestad, Aruba I Tel: I Fax: I I January 22,

5 [Type text] Press Release Consumer Price Index December 2018 The subsistence level in December 2018 The subsistence level is the minimum level of income which is perceived necessary to achieve an adequate standard of living in a given country. The subsistence level is usually determined by estimating the cost of all the essential resources that an average adult consumes in one month or year. This is commonly called a basic needs index, and varies according to the price of food, clothing, housing, transport and other items in the "basket". Equivalent scales are used to adjust the assumed standard of living, of households of different sizes and composition. The scale assigns a weight of 1.0 for the first adult and 0.5 for each additional adult in the household (aged 15+) and a weight of 0.3 for each child (aged 0-14 years). The subsistence level is based on figures of the report Bestaansminimum 2010 published by the CBS in December 2010 and is monthly updated for inflation using the monthly CPI. The reference unit used in this report is a household consisting of two (2) adults and two (2) children (aged 0-14 years). ` Table 9: Monthly subsistence level in Aruba (in Afl.) by sector for a family of 2 adults and 2 children (aged 0-14 years) Absolute Sector Dec-17 Dec-18 Change Food and non-alcoholic beverages 1,603 1, Clothing and footwear Housing 1,361 1, Household operation Health Transport Communications Recreation and culture Education Miscellaneous goods and services Total 4,340 4, In December 2018 the monthly subsistence level for a household consisting of two (2) adults and two (2) children (aged 0-14 years) (Afl. 4,596) showed an increase of Afl. 256 compared to December 2017 (Afl. 4,340) and was mainly caused by an increase of Afl. 176 in the sector Food and non-alcoholic beverages. Table 10: Monthly Subsistence level in Aruba (in Afl.) by family size and composition, December 2018 (Base period Oct. 2010) adult 1 adult 2 adults 2 adults 2 adults Period + 1 child + 1 child + 2 children Dec-17 2,067 2,687 3,100 3,720 4,340 Jan-18 2,075 2,697 3,112 3,735 4,357 Feb-18 2,106 2,737 3,159 3,790 4,422 Mar-18 2,112 2,746 3,168 3,802 4,435 Apr-18 2,118 2,753 3,177 3,812 4,447 May-18 2,122 2,759 3,183 3,820 4,457 Jun-18 2,131 2,771 3,197 3,836 4,476 Jul-18 2,162 2,810 3,242 3,891 4,539 Aug-18 2,157 2,804 3,235 3,882 4,529 Sep-18 2,157 2,804 3,235 3,882 4,530 Oct-18 2,161 2,810 3,242 3,890 4,539 Nov-18 2,178 2,832 3,267 3,921 4,574 Dec-18 2,189 2,845 3,283 3,940 4,596 Equivalence scales In December 2018, the monthly subsistence level for a single adult household is Afl 2,189, which represents an income deficit of Afl. 478, an increase of Afl. 122 compared to the deficit observed one year ago (Afl. 356). This deficit is the highest registered over a period of five (5) years for the month December. Tabel 11: Monthly income surplus/deficit (in Afl.) for a single adult household for December, Minimum Period 1 adult wage Surplus/deficit ,110 1, ,097 1, ,088 1, ,067 1, ,189 1, L.G. Smith Boulevard 160 I Oranjestad, Aruba I Tel: I Fax: I I January 22,

6 APPENDIX 1 Monthly & Yearly Changes (%) in the Consumer Price Index for December 2018, Total Population (Dec 2006 = 100) DESCRIPTION WEIGHT Monthly Ytd End of period Period average coefficient Dec Nov Dec Nov - Dec Dec - Dec Dec 17 - Dec 18 Dec 17 - Dec 18 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 1, Food Non-alcoholic beverages Alcoholic beverages and tobacco Alcoholic beverages for consumption at home Tobacco Clothing and footwear Clothing Footwear Housing 2, Actual rentals for housing Maintenance and repair of the dwelling Water supply and miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling Electricity, gas and other fuels Household operation Furniture, furnishings, carpets and other floor coverings Household textiles Household appliances Glassware, tableware and household utensils Tools and equipment for house and garden Goods and services for routine household maintenance and cleaning Health Medical products, appliances and equipment Out-patient services Other health products and services Transport 1, Purchase of vehicles Operation of personal transport equipment Transport services Communications Postal services Telephone and telefax equipment Telephone and telefax services Recreation and culture Audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment Other major durables for recreation and culture Other recreational items and equipment; gardens and pets Recreational and cultural services Newspapers, books and stationery Holidays Education Pre primary and primary education Secondary education Post-secondary non-tertiary education Tertiary education Education not definable by level Restaurants and hotels Catering services Accommodation services Miscellaneous goods and services Personal care Personal effects n.e.c Social protection Insurance Financial services n.e.c Other services n.e.c CPI 10,

7 APPENDIX 2 Effect on the Consumer Price Index per sector and category for December 2018 (Dec 2006 = 100) DESCRIPTION WEIGHT Monthly Ytd End of period Period average coefficient Nov - Dec Dec - Dec Dec 17 - Dec 18 Dec 17 - Dec 18 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 1, Food Non-alcoholic beverages Alcoholic beverages and tobacco Alcoholic beverages for consumption at home Tobacco Clothing and footwear Clothing Footwear Housing 2, Actual rentals for housing Maintenance and repair of the dwelling Water supply and miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling Electricity, gas and other fuels Household operation Furniture, furnishings, carpets and other floor coverings Household textiles Household appliances Glassware, tableware and household utensils Tools and equipment for house and garden Goods and services for routine household maintenance and cleaning Health Medical products, appliances and equipment Out-patient services Other health products and services Transport 1, Purchase of vehicles Operation of personal transport equipment Transport services Communications Postal services Telephone and telefax equipment Telephone and telefax services Recreation and culture Audio-visual, photographic and information processing equipment Other major durables for recreation and culture Other recreational items and equipment; gardens and pets Recreational and cultural services Newspapers, books and stationery Holidays Education Pre primary and primary education Secondary education Post-secondary non-tertiary education Tertiary education Education not definable by level Restaurants and hotels Catering services Accommodation services Miscellaneous goods and services Personal care Personal effects n.e.c Social protection Insurance Financial services n.e.c Other services n.e.c CPI 10,

8 APPENDIX 3 Monthly & Yearly Changes (%) and effect in the Food & catering services for December 2018, Total Population (Dec 2006 = 100) % Change Effect DESCRIPTION WEIGHT Monthly End of period Monthly End of period coefficient Nov - Dec Dec 17 - Dec 18 Nov - Dec Dec 17 - Dec 18 Food & catering services 1, Food at home 1, Bread and cereals Rice Bread Pasta products Other cereals and cereal products Meat Bovine Swine Poultry Other meat and meat preparations Fish and other seafood Fish and seafood preparations Milk, cheese and eggs Milk Cheese Eggs Other milk products Oils and fats Butter and margarine Corn oil Other oils and fats Fruit Oranges, lemons and mandarins Bananas and plantains Apples and pears Grapes Melons and watermelons Nuts Other fruits and fruit products Potatoes and other tubers Potatoes Sweet potatoes and yucca Other tubers Vegetables Lettuce Celery and broccoli Tomatoes & peppers Onions Frozen vegetable mixtures Other vegetables Other preserved or processed vegetables Sugar, jam, honey and other confectionery Sugar Jams and jellies Other confectionery products Food products n.e.c Other food products Non-alcoholic beverages Coffee and tea Soft and sports drinks Fruit juices Other non-alcoholic beverages Food away from home Food and beverage consumption away from home Other goods and services 8, Other goods 5, Other services 3, CPI 10,

9 APPENDIX 4 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX YEAR: 2018 YEAR: 2017 Koppelingsfactor Base Base Base Base CHANGE CHANGE Dec-06 Dec-06 Dec-06 Dec-06 Monthly Year-to Yearly Period Monthly Year-to Yearly Period =100.0 =100.0 =100.0 =100.0 date average date average Jan.'17 Dec.'16 Jan.'18 Dec.'17 Total Population Low Income High Income Feb.'17 Jan.'17 Feb.'18 Jan.'18 Total Population Low Income High Income Mar.'17 Feb.'17 Mar.'18 Feb.'18 Total Population Low Income High Income Apr.'17 Mar.'17 Apr.'18 Mar.'18 Total Population Low Income High Income May'17 Apr.'17 May'18 Apr.'18 Total Population Low Income High Income Jun'17 May'17 Jun'18 May'18 Total Population Low Income High Income Jul'17 Jun'17 Jul'18 Jun'18 Total Population Low Income High Income Aug.'17 Jul'17 Aug.'18 Jul'18 Total Population Low Income High Income Sep.'17 Aug.'17 Sep.'18 Aug.'18 Total Population Low Income High Income Oct.'17 Sep.'17 Oct.'18 Sep.'18 Total Population Low Income High Income Nov.'17 Oct.'17 Nov.'18 Oct.'18 Total Population Low Income High Income Dec.'17 Nov.'17 Dec.'18 Nov.'18 Total Population Low Income High Income

10 APPENDIX 5 Prices of crude oil, utilities and gasoline, Crude Electricity components Crude Total energy charge 2 Fixed oil 1 charge 3 Electricity 4 Water 5 Gasoline 6 Diesel 6 Month 500 kwh kwh > 1001 kwh Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average January February March April May June July August September October November December Average Average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price per barrel in US$ (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration) 2 Total energy charge in Afl. cents per kwh 3 Fixed charge was introduced in October 2014 at Afl Electricty price in Afl. is based on an average household usage of kwh 5 Water price in Afl. is based on an average household usage 6 Gasoline and diesel prices in Afl. cents per liter