Economic Interdependence and Production of Multinational Firms: Input output Analysis

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1 19 th Annual Northeast Asia conomic orum Conference August 27, 2010 Session 5: Cross-order Regional Cooperation conomic Interdependence and Production of Multinational irms: Input output Analysis Mitsuo YAMADA Chukyo University, Japan 1

2 contents 1. ackground and Motivation 2. Input-Output Analysis: Overseas Production of Japanese irms. Chinese conomy as one of the Core Countries in NA 4. Concluding Remarks 2

3 1 ackground and Motivation Northeast Asia as fast economic development area Income differential and energy inefficiency are still eist in these area. To overcome these problem, cross-border cooperative activities by both private and government are required. Here, we would like present a method to evaluate activities of private sector using input-output analysis.

4 Current GDP Current GDP GDP, current il. US Dollaer il. US Doller il. US Dollar CHN HKG JPN KOR ASAN5 MNG USA CHN HKG JPN KOR ASAN5 MNG USA J+C+K+M

5 GDP per capita (constant 2005 PPP $) GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2005 PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent) 軸ラベル CHN HKG IDN JPN KOR MYS MNG PHL SGP THA USA 軸ラベル CHN HKG IDN JPN KOR MYS MNG PHL SGP THA USA

6 2 Input-Output Analysis: Overseas Production of Japanese irms Asia International Input-Output table 2000 of ID, Japan is the latest version. I-O Table 2005 will be published in net year, though updated I-O table is available for each country. In this I-O table, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taipei, South Korea, Japan, and US are included. Here we discuss on the interdependence among countries, especially through production activities of multinational firms. 6

7 Overseas Activities of Japanese irms DI of Japan 25,000 20,000 il. Yen 15,000 10,000 5, Year DI,MO DI,OJ 7

8 Overseas Activities of Japanese irms 100,000 90,000 Overseas Production of Japanese irms Regional Share of Overseas Production, 2007 Unit:% 80,000 il. Yen 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 North America Asia China China, Main urope, 21.5 ROW, 8.8 North America,.5 0,000 20,000 10,000 0 Hong Kong uropa NIs, 10.0 ASAN4, China, Main, 9.2 Hong Kong, 4.8 8

9 2007 Sales in North America (left) and Asia (right) 2007 Sales in North America 2007 Sales in Asia (Unit:il. Yen,%) (Unit:il. Yen,%) Total Japan N.Am. Aisa Total Japan N.Am. Aisa Total Total 79, , Manufacturing Manufacturing 5, , ood ood , tetile tetile Wooden Products and Pulp Wooden 244.2Products and Pulp Chemical Chemical 2, , Petroleum and Coal Petroleum and Coal Non-metallic mineral Non-metallic 19. mineral Iron and Steal Iron and Steal , Non-ferrous Metal Non-ferrous 284. Metal , Metal Products Metal 92.8 Products General Machinery General 929.5Machinery , Production Machinery Production 1,06.0 Machinery usiness Machines usiness 75.6 Machines , lectrical Machinery lectrical Machinery , Information and Communication Machinery Information 4,401.8 and 2.4 Communication Machinery , Transport quipment 20,695.8 Transport quipment , Miscellaneous Machinery Miscellaneous 1,997.8 Machinery , Non-Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing 4, ,

10 Sales and Purchasing of Japanese subsidiary in North America with Japan 10 il. Yen Sales and Purchasing of Japanese subsidiary in Asia with Japan 10 il. Yen ood tetile Wooden Products and Pulp Chemical Petroleum and Coal Non-metallic mineral Iron and Steal Non-ferrous Metal Metal Products General Machinery Production Machinery usiness Machines lectrical Machinery Information and Transport quipment Miscellaneous Machinery N.A. Jp Jp N.A. ood tetile Wooden Products and Pulp Chemical Petroleum and Coal Non-metallic mineral Iron and Steal Non-ferrous Metal Metal Products General Machinery Production Machinery usiness Machines lectrical Machinery Information and Transport quipment Miscellaneous Machinery Asia Jp Jp Asia 10

11 Institute of Developing conomies-jtro The schematic image of the 2000 Asian international input-output table Intermediate Demand (A) inal Demand () port (L) Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand China Taiwan Korea Japan U.S.A. Indonesia Malaysia code (AI) (AM) (AP) (AS) (AT) (AC) (AN) (AK) (AJ) (AU) (I) (M) (P) (S) (T) (C) (N) (K) (J) (U) (LH) (LO) (LW) (QX) (XX) Indonesia (AI) A II A IM A IP A IS A IT A IC A IN A IK A IJ A IU II IM IP IS IT IC IN IK IJ IU L IH L IO L IW Q I X I Philippines Singapore Thailand China Taiwan Korea Japan U.S.A. port to Hong Kong port to U port to R.O.W. Statistical Discrepancy Total Outputs Malaysia (AM) A MI A MM A MP A MS A MT A MC A MN A MK A MJ A MU MI MM MP MS MT MC MN MK MJ MU L MH L MO L MW Q M X M Philippines (AP) A PI A PM A PP A PS A PT A PC A PN A PK A PJ A PU PI PM PP PS PT PC PN PK PJ PU L PH L PO L PW Q P X P Singapore (AS) A SI A SM A SP A SS A ST A SC A SN A SK A SJ A SU SI SM SP SS ST SC SN SK SJ SU L SH L SO L SW Q S X S Thailand (AT) A TI A TM A TP A TS A TT A TC A TN A TK A TJ A TU TI TM TP TS TT TC TN TK TJ TU L TH L TO L TW Q T X T China (AC) A CI A CM A CP A CS A CT A CC A CN A CK A CJ A CU CI CM CP CS CT CC CN CK CJ CU L CH L CO L CW Q C X C Valued at producer's price reight and Insurance Import from Hong Kong Import from U Import from the R.O.W. Duties and Import Commodity Taes Value Added Total Inputs Taiwan (AN) A NI A NM A NP A NS A NT A NC A NN A NK A NJ A NU NI NM NP NS NT NC NN NK NJ NU L NH L NO L NW Q N X N Korea (AK) A KI A KM A KP A KS A KT A KC A KN A KK A KJ A KU KI KM KP KS KT KC KN KK KJ KU L KH L KO L KW Q K X K Japan (AJ) A JI A JM A JP A JS A JT A JC A JN A JK A JJ A JU JI JM JP JS JT JC JN JK JJ JU L JH L JO L JW Q J X J U.S.A. (AU) A UI A UM A UP A US A UT A UC A UN A UK A UJ A UU UI UM UP US UT UC UN UK UJ UU L UH L UO L UW Q U X U () A I A M A P A S A T A C A N A K A J A U I M P S T C N K J U (CH) A HI A HM A HP A HS A HT A HC A HN A HK A HJ A HU HI HM HP HS HT HC HN HK HJ HU (CO) A OI A OM A OP A OS A OT A OC A ON A OK A OJ A OU OI OM OP OS OT OC ON OK OJ OU (CW) A WI A WM A WP A WS A WT A WC A WN A WK A WJ A WU WI WM WP WS WT WC WN WK WJ WU (DT) DA I DA M DA P DA S DA T DA C DA N DA K DA J DA U D I D M D P D S D T D C D N D K D J D U (VV) V I V M V P V S V T V C V N V K V J V U International freight and insurance on the trade between member countries (A**, **). Valued at C.I.. Import duties and import commodity taes levied on all trade. (XX) X I X M X P X S X T X C X N X K X J X U * ach cell of A** and ** represents a matri of and 76 4 dimension, respectively. In a columnwise direction, each cell in the table shows the input compositions of industries of respective country. A Ⅱ for eample shows the input compositions of Indonesian industries vis-à-vis domestically produced goods and services, i.e. domestic transactions of Indonesia. A MI in contrast shows the input composition of Indonesian industries for the imported goods and services from Malaysia. The cells A PI, A SI, A TI, A CI, A NI, A KI, A JI, A UI, A HI, A OI, A WI allow the same interpretation for the imports from other countries. A and DA give international freight & insurance and taes on these import transactions. Turning to the 11 th column from the left side of the table, it shows the compositions of goods and services that have gone to final demand sectors of Indonesia. II and MI, for eample, maps the the inflow into Indonesian final demand sectors, of goods and services domestically produced and of those imported from Malaysia, respectively. The rest of the column is read in the same manner as is done for the 1 st column of the table. L *H, L *O, L *W are eports (vectors) to Hong Kong, U and the Rest of the World, repectively. Vs and Xs are value added and total input/output, as seen in the conventional national I-O table. 11

12 2. Theoretical framework = A A A A International input-output model home foreign = A A A A A A A A A foreign overseas act. home 12

13 + + = port to home Sales to invested country port to the third country = ) ( ) ( ) ( we can derive the production induced by the final goods, which are supplied by Japanese overseas activity, 1

14 If we assume that 100α percent of the Japanese overseas production of final goods substitutes for some part of the domestic final demand and eport demand in Japan, the induced effect on the production are derived from the following equation = α ( + + ) = α ( ( ( ) ) ) 14

15 Table 1 The Definition of Sectors 78 sectors for each country Sectors 1 Agriculture, forestry and fishery 2 Mining Construction 4 ood 5 Tetile 6 Timber, wood, and pulp 7 Chemical industry 8 Iron and Steel 9 Nonferrous metals 10 General machinery 11 lectrical machinery 12 Transport equipment 1 Precision instrument 14 Petroleum and coal 15 Other manufacturing 16 Commerce 17 Public service 18 Other service 19 inance and real estate 20 Others 15

16 Recompiled Input-Output Table, 2000 Intermediate Demand Japanese Japan US Asia firm in US Japanese irm in Asia Unit: il. Dollar Japan US Asia ROW Output Japan US Asia Jap irm in US Jap irm in Asia ROW Value Added Output Intermediate Demand Japanese Japan US Asia firm in US Japanese irm in Asia inal Demand inal Demand Japan US Asia ROW Output Japan US Asia Jap irm in US Jap irm in Asia ROW Value Added Output

17 simulation 1 How much is the contribution of Japanese overseas production? Regional contribution of Japanese overseas production through the induced value added in each region. 17

18 Simulation 1-a Regional Contributions in Value Added for the Production of Japanese Subsidiary in US, Agriculture, Mining Construction ood Tetile Wood and Pulp Chemical Iron and Steal Non-ferrous General lectrical Transport Precious Petroleum Miscellaneous Wholesle and Public Service Private Service inance and Others Japan US Asia Japanese firms in Asia ROW 18

19 Japanese overseas firms in the US The US contributions are dominant. The contribution of Japan, is relatively large in machinery sectors, petroleum and coal, and miscellaneous manufacturing. Asian contribution is not so large, but a little bit for the case of electrical machinery, and miscellaneous manufacturing. The contribution of Japanese overseas firms in Asia is negligible. 19

20 Simulation 1-b Regional Contributions in Value Added for the Production of Japanese Subsidiary in Asia, Agriculture, Mining Construction ood Tetile Wood and Pulp Chemical Iron and Steal Non-ferrous General lectrical Transport Precious Petroleum Miscellaneous Wholesle and Public Service Private Service inance and Others Japan US Asia Japanese firms in US ROW 20

21 Japanese overseas production in Asia The contribution of local economy in Asia is the largest. Japan contributes almost as much as the local economy in cases of machinery sectors, tetile, chemical industry, iron and steel, and not-metal industry. The contribution of the US is not so high. The contribution of Japanese overseas firms in the US is negligible. 21

22 The patterns of the Japanese contribution to her overseas firms are different between both the US and Asia. 1) The contribution to the US is concentrated to the cases of machinery sectors. 2) The contribution to Asia is a little bit broad; tetile, chemical industry, iron and steel, and non-ferrous metal are added. ) The interrelation between Japanese overseas activities in the US and in Asia seems to be negligible at least in the sense of the contribution to the value added. 22

23 simulation 2 How affect the overseas production of Japanese firms on Japanese economy? the induced demand effect and the substitution effect of Japanese overseas production on Japanese economy. 2

24 + + = port to home Sales to invested country port to the third country = ) ( ) ( ) ( we can derive the production induced by the final goods, which are supplied by Japanese overseas activity, <- Case-1 24

25 If we assume that 100α percent of the Japanese overseas production of final goods substitutes for some part of the domestic final demand and eport demand in Japan, the induced effect on the production are derived from the following equation = α( + + ) = α ( ( ( ) ) ) <- Case-2/ α=1/α=0.1 25

26 Simulation 2-a Unit: $1 billion Case 1+Case 2 Case 1+Case Case 1 Case 2 Case Case 4 Case 5 Induced Product ffect Substitute effect Substitute effect Total ffect Total ffect Jp irms in US Jp irms in Asia Jp irms in US Jp irms in Asia Jp irms in US Jp irms in Asia Jp irms in US Jp irms in Asia Jp irms in US Jp irms in Asia Change in Demand α=1 α=1 α=0.10 α=0.10 α=1 α=1 α=0.10 α=0.10 Japan US Asia Jp irms in US Jp irms in Aisa Total Change in Product Japan US Asia Jp irms in US Jp irms in Aisa Total Ratio Japan US Asia Jp irms in US Jp irms in Aisa Total

27 Simulation 2-b Unit: il. Dollar Sectors Japaese port share in World Trade Case-4 Total ffect on Japaese Industries Case-5 Total ffect on Japaese Industries (%) Jp irms Jp irms Jp irms Jp irms in US in Asia in US in Asia α=1 α=1 α=0.11 α= Agriculture, orestry, and ishery Mining Construction ood Tetile Wood and Pulp Chemical Iron and Steal Non-ferrous metal General Machinery lectrical machinery Transport quipment Precious Instrument Petroleum and Coal Miscellaneous Manufacturing Wholesle and retail Public Service Private Service inance and Real state Others Average in US Average in Asia Total

28 The overseas production positively contributes to the production in the invested economy; the US and Asia. However, for Japan, it depends on the scale of substitution effect. If the substitution is as much as about 10 percent of the overseas production, the negative effect of the substitution is epected to be overcome by the positive effect of the induced effect in Japan. If the substitution effect is larger than these values, the overall effect on the Japanese domestic production is epected to decrease seriously, which brings unemployment in the domestic labor market. 28

29 Chinese conomy as one of the Core Countries in NA conomic Situation have been changing from 2000 to conomy of Japan has been depressed for two decades. Chinese economic growth continues for long period after the open policy. Chinese GDP becomes almost same as Japanese one. Necessity for cooperative activities seems to be strengthened. 29

30 DI in China DI in China Regional Shares of DI in China, ROW 29% 10 il Dollar GDP 比 (%) Hong Kong 45% North America 4% urope 6% Other Asia 1% ASAN4 1% Nies 10% Japan 4% 0

31 Japanese DI in China Contribution of oreign firms to international Trade in China il. Dollar Japanese Stat. Chinese Stat % port Import

32 Chinese Input-output Table, sectors table Share of Japanese firms to Chinese port, 2005 Unit: il. Yuan 0 Agriculture, Mining ood Tetile Miscellaneous lectricity, heat Petroleum and Coal Chemical Non-ferrous metal Metallic Product Machinery Construction Transport and Wholesale and Real state inance and Other Service Contribution of Value Added and Import to port in China, Import il. Yuan Value Added port Jap irms Share(%) Agriculture Mining ood Tetile and ur Product Petroleum and Coal Chemical Non-metallic Mineral Metal products Machinery Miscellaneous Manufacturing

33 Contribution of Value Added and Import to Demestic inal Demand in China, 2005 Agriculture Mining and Quarrying oodstuff Tetile, Sewing, Leather and urs Other Manufacturing Production and Supply of lectric Coking, Gas and Petroleum Chemical Industry uilding Materials and Non- Metal Products Machinery and quipment Construction Transportation, Postal and Wholesale and Retail Trades, Real state, Leasing and usiness anking and Insurance Other Services il. Yuan Import Value Added

34 4 Concluding Remarks DI activity is important for the economic development in China. Such production brings international trade between China and home/the third country. Diffusion in technology, in broad sense, would be epected through such activities. Improvement in energy efficiency would be also epected through such activities. 4

35 Our analysis has to be revised, using new Asia International Input-output Table 2005, which is to be published net year. MTI, Japan has a project to compile Japan-China international Input-Output Table, which is more detailed table than that of ID/JTRO. Using these tables, the economic interdependence in NA region would be evaluated in precise and detailed way. Cooperation in the such research field is also epected. 5

36 Thank you very much 6

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