Office of the Economic Adviser Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion

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1 Office of the Economic Adviser Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion Growth of Manufacturing Output and Exports 1. An in crea s e in th e s h a re of exports a n d im ports in GDP is on e of th e desirable ou tcom es of th e econ om ic in tegra tion. Globa l tra de, both exports a n d im ports, th erefore, witn es s es a fa s ter growth th a n GDP a n d its con s titu en ts. Exports, h owever, a re a s u b s et of dom es tic produ ction, even th ou gh th e drivin g force for th a t is extern a l dem a n d. An in crea s e in exports, th erefore, is a stimulant to dom es tic produ ction a n d th a t in a wa y gen era tes co-m ovem en t for production and exports. 2. Th e m a cro da ta a t a ggrega te level is gen era lly con s is ten t with th e h ypoth es is of a fa s ter growth of exports rela tive to GDP. Sin ce bu lk of our m erch a n dis e exports a re m a n u fa ctu red produ cts, th e fa s ter growth over a m ediu m term is a ls o witn es s ed for th e m a n u fa ctu rin g com pon en t of th e In dex of In du s tria l Produ ction a n d th e m erch a n dis e exports. Over a m ediu m term ( ), exports h a ve grown fa s ter th a n GDP a n d m erch a n dis e exports h a ve grown fa s ter th a n th e in dex of m a n u fa ctu red produ cts. Th e a n n u a l rates of growth, however, are significantly different for these macro parameters. Table 1: GDP (mp), Exports and IIP (manufacturing) - (index with =100) GDP (Market Prices) Exports (NAS) Exports (Merchandise) IIP (Manufacturing) Annual Rate of growth (per cent) GDP Exports (NAS) Exports (Merchandise) IIP (Manufacturing) Merchandise exports in rupee terms have been deflated with GDP deflator 1 It is possible to use the NAS deflators of exports, but over medium term results do not show much differences. Year on year index and growth rates, however, differ. 2 Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for manufacturing has been preferred over the GDP from manufacturing, because f0r , even in GDP, these growth rates are used. 1 Pa g e

2 Fig 1: GDP, Merchandise Exports and IIP ( =100) 3. A con tin u ou s in crea s e in export depen den cy (h igh er s h a re of exports in sales/output) is a ls o con firm ed from th e corp ora te s ector da ta. Ba s ed on th e da ta s et of th e Cen tre for Mon itorin g In dia n Econ om y (CMIE), it is observed th a t th e s h a re of exports (fob) in th e overa ll s a les of th e com pa n ies (en ga ged in manufacturing) has increased from 13% in to 16.8% in Table 2: Manufacturing Companies Sales and Exports No of Sales Exports Share of Exports Companies (Rs in crore) (per cent) ,689, , ,057, , ,389, , ,740, , ,796, , ,919, , Wh ile a h igh er growth of exports is to be expected with grea ter in tegra tion a n d im proved com petitiven es s of th e in du s try, s ign ifica n tly h igh er exports growth on the one hand and a decelerating growth trends in production of m a n u fa ctu rin g s ector du rin g h a d ra is ed s om e a ppreh en s ion s on s u s ta in a bility of exports a n d a ls o on th e m ech a n is m of ca ptu rin g of th e two s ets of da ta. It wa s, th erefore, con s idered th a t a quick s tu dy m a y be u n derta ken to exa m in e produ ct s pecific produ ction a n d exports a n d th eir m ovem en t over tim e. Th is dis a ggrega ted s tu dy wa s a ls o expected to in dica te the nature and industry specific comparability concerns. 2 Pa g e

3 5. Dis a ggrega ted exports a n d produ ction da ta a re a va ila ble in two dis tin ct cla s s ifica tion s. Wh ile th e tra de da ta follow th e In tern a tion a l Tra de Cla s s ifica tion (Ha rm on is ed) or ITC-HS, th e produ ction da ta is ca ptu red a s per th e Na tion a l In du s tria l Cla s s ifica tion (NIC). Wh ile th e form er is a com m odity cla s s ifica tion, th e NIC is in term s of a n a ctivity. Th ere wa s, th erefore, a n eed to firs t bu ild a con corda n ce between th e two s ets of da ta before a n y com pa ris on could be made between the movements of production and exports. 6. Further, in du s tria l da ta, pa rticu la rly rela tin g to ou tpu t in NAS 3 is a va ila ble a t bes t a t 2 digit level of NIC, or for m a n u fa ctu rin g grou ps a n d n ot s epa ra tely for prod u cts. Th e In dex of In du s tria l Produ ction (IIP), wh ich is a n oth er s ou rce of m a n u fa ctu rin g da ta, th ou gh covers 3 97 m a n u fa ctu rin g produ cts, bu t th es e a re ba s ed on th e perform a n ce of th e fa ctories in th e fra m e of IIP. IIP n ot on ly follows fixed weigh ts, bu t a ls o a fixed fra m e a pproa ch 4 a n d do n ot cover th e u n orga n ized s ector 5. IIP, th erefore, is a s u b s et of th e u n ivers e of m a n u fa ctu rin g a s a ga in s t exports wh ich cover th e en tire qu a n tity of m a n u fa ctu red produ cts th a t lea ve th e s h ores. Th e In dex, h owever, depicts th e change in production fairly well The Industrial Statistics Unit (ISU) of Department of Industrial Policy and Prom otion (DIPP) h a s been m a in ta in in g da ta ba s e on produ ction s ta tis tics rela tin g to m os t of th e in du s tries in th e orga n is ed s ector covered u n der th e In du s tries (Developm en t a n d Regu la tion ) Act, Th e da ta -ba s e is th e la rges t on e of its kin d. DIPP provides da ta on 2 68 item s / item grou ps to th e Min is try of Sta tis tics a n d Progra m m e Im plem en ta tion (MOSPI), wh ich a ccou n t for 60.4% weigh t in th e m a n u fa ctu rin g s ector a n d 45.6% weigh t in th e overa ll IIP. Th e covera ge of DIPP a t broa d grou ps of m a n u fa ctu rin g va ries from a low of 1.1% for manufacture of coke, refin ed petroleu m produ cts a n d n u clea r fu el to 100% in 15 grou ps. Th e s ectors wh ich a re covered fu lly by DIPP a s a s ou rce for data in the compilation of IIP are as below. 3 NAS provides the data of output of registered and unregistered and unregistered manufacturing output. While the registered factory sector data is based on Annual Survey of Industries, data on unregistered sector is based on surveys undertaken with defined intervals of around 5 years. 4 IIP index is available only at 2 digit NIC level and product wise index is not released. 5 Even in orga n ized s ector, for m os t of th e produ cts, th e covera ge is gen era lly of fa ctories employing 50 or more workers. 6 Th ou gh IIP gen era lly u n deres tim a tes th e ra te of growth, beca u s e of its fixed fra m e a pproa ch, the underestimation only become significant when base gets dated. In first few years index may be fairly representative. 3 Pa g e

4 Table 3: Industry groups covered fully by DIPP items/products NIC code Industry NIC Industry code 16 Tobacco products 29 Machinery and equipment n.e.c. 18 Wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing of fur 30 Office, accounting & computing machinery 19 Luggage, handbags, saddlery, harness & footwear; tanning 31 Electrical machinery & apparatus n.e.c. and dressing of leather products 20 Wood and products of wood & cork except furniture; articles 32 Radio, TV and communication equipment & apparatus of straw & plating materials 21 Paper and paper products 33 Medical, precision & optical instruments, watches and clocks 22 Publishing, printing & reproduction of recorded media 34 Motor vehicles, trailers & semitrailers 25 Rubber and plastics products 36 Furniture; manufacturing n.e.c. 28 Fabricated metal products, except machinery & equipment 8. Th e s ectors wh ich a re covered pa rtia lly by DIPP a s a s ou rce for da ta in the compilation of IIP are as below. Group wis e covera ge of DIPP item s is a t Annex 1. Table 4: Sectors with partial coverage by DIPP items NIC-04 Industry 15 Food products and beverages 17 Textiles 23 Coke, refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel 24 Chemicals and chemical products 26 Other non-metallic mineral products 27 Basic metals 35 Other transport equipment 9. Th e a n a lys is th a t follows covers 268 item s for wh ich s epa ra te in dex is gen era ted by DIPP. A con corda n ce h a s been developed with exports for th es e item s. Sin ce th e IIP is a volu m etric in dex with produ ction reported in va lu e term s con verted to th eir prices, IIP- Exports com pa ris on a ls o requ ired con vertin g th e exports da ta to prices. Appropria te Wh oles a le Price 4 Pa g e

5 Index 7 defla tors were u s ed to con vert th e export s eries to prices. In dices were th en con s tru cted for th is defla ted s eries a t 2 digit level of NIC, consistent with IIP. Sector wise deflators used are indicated in Annex The indices so generated for production and exports shows that the value of th e IIP in dex h a s in crea s ed to in , a t th e s a m e tim e, h owever, th e export in dex in crea s ed to An n u a l in dex for both produ ction a n d exports, together with their rate of growth is indicated below: Table 5: Production and export Indices ( =100) Year IIP Index Export Index Rate of Growth Share of exports covered as % to total exports IIP Exports Fig 2 : Production and Export indices ( =100) 7 Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) were used as deflators for exports. WPI is also the deflator for IIP products reported in value terms. 5 Pa g e

6 Fig 3: Annual rate of growth of production and exports for selected products 11. Th e com p a ris on of th e produ ction and export in dices a n d th eir growth at two digit NIC classifications of in du s tries (deta iled ta bles for ea ch grou p a re a t Annex 3) broadly indicate the following: In ca s e of th e food produ ction a n d bevera ges, th e overa ll in dex for produ ction a n d exports has moved m ore or les s in a s im ila r direction. The ra te of growth, h owever, differs bu t s in ce th e exports a re a very in s ign ifica n t pa rt of dom es tic produ ction, these va ria tion s could be considered as normal. In ca s e of toba cco & toba cco produ cts, exports s h ow a fa s ter growth compared to dom es tic produ ction. Th ere a re, h owever in dica tion s of a dom es tic dem a n d m odera tin g a n d th a t m a y perh a ps h a ve en cou ra ged exporters to fin d ou tlets for th e produ cts. Th e Toba cco produ cts, h owever, h a ve a very s m a ll weigh t of 0.5% in IIP and even in th e products con s idered in th e s tu dy, th eir weigh t is a little over 1%. Higher growth m a y, th erefore, n ot h a ve ca u s ed s ign ifica n t va ria tion a t a ggrega te level. In ca s e of textiles a n d a ppa rels, exports witn es s ed a declin e in 2010 a n d Th is is in con tra s t to th e overa ll exports growth of th e item s covered pa rticu la rly in wh en exports witn es s ed a s u rge, th ou gh on a lower s ide. Dom es tic produ ction, h owever, s h ow a pos itive growth du rin g th is period. Declin e in exports m a y m ore to do with th e globa l developm en ts. Fu rth er, th e n ega tive export growth in a n oth erwis e export in ten s ive s ector m a y h a ve m odera ted th e export growth a n d n ot a factor for divergence of growth. 6 Pa g e

7 In ca s e of th e ta n n in g a n d dres s in g of lea th er, th e produ ction a n d th e export in dices m ore or les s h a ve a co-m ovem en t. Th is is a n export in ten s ive s ector a n d m odera tion in th e export growth m a y h a ve a ls o impacted the growth of production. In wood a n d wood produ cts, th ere h a s been a declin e in exports consistently since In dia does n ot h a ve any comparative advantage in the segment. In ca s e of pa per & pa per produ ct, exports in dex s h ows flu ctu a tion s with a growth tu rn in g pos itive a n d n ega tive a t regu la r in terva ls. However, In dia does n ot h a ve m u ch of a com pa ra tive a dva n ta ge in paper & pa per products and even the growth in production is relatively moderate. In ca s e of prin tin g, pu blis h in g a n d re-produ ction of recorded m edia, th ere is a ls o a co-m ovem en t of dom es tic produ ction of exp orters. Both produ ction a n d export in dex witn es s ed a con tra diction in a n d a recovery in the following year. Manufacture of coke, refin ed a n d petroleu m produ cts a n d n u clea r fu el s h ow a s u rge in export in In term s of th e DIPP item s, th is s egm en t h a s a very s m a ll weigh t wh ich m a kes th e com pa ra bility a little difficult. Over th e m ediu m term, h owever, export growth of s elected products in their group is significantly higher. Ch em ica l & ch em ica l produ cts s h ow a h igh export growth over the medium term and the period covered in the study. Except , rate of growth of export is s ign ifica n tly h igh er th a n th e growth of produ ction. Export bein g a s m a ll s egm en t of th e dem a n d for th es e produ cts, a h igh er growth in exports may not be unexpected. In ca s e of th e n on -m eta llic m in era ls of wh ich cem en t h a s th e dom in a n t s h a re, th e export in dex is virtu a lly fla t. Cem en t exports a ccou n t for a very small share of total production. Even globally cement is not a highly tra ded com m odity in globa l m a rkets. Ch a n ge in th e export in dex is, th erefore, over a very low ba s e. Produ ction in th is s ector h a s, h owever recorded a lower growth relative to others. Ba s ic m eta ls s h ow wide flu ctu a tion s in exports. Th e in crea s e in exports is s ign ifica n tly h igh er in with in dex im provin g from in to in It may be because of a small percentage of dom es tic ou tpu t bein g exported. Export s h ow gen era lly wide flu ctu a tion s a n d s ector h a d a n ega tive export growth du rin g Meta l Produ cts (coverin g fa bric m eta l produ cts except m a ch in ery), also witn es s ed a h igh er export growth rela tive to growth in produ ction du rin g A declin e in th e export du rin g cou ld be du e to a 7 Pa g e

8 genera l con tra diction in th e exports a n d a recovery in wa s a ls o moderate. A more disaggregated product level analysis may be necessary for iden tifyin g fa ctors of growth in ba s ic m eta ls a n d a m odera te recovery in fabricated metals in Ma ch in ery a n d equ ipm en ts oth er th a n th e electrica l m a ch in ery a ls o s h ow a rea s on a ble clos en es s of th e dom es tic produ ction a n d exports indices except du rin g A declin e in th e export growth in may be due to global economic slowdown and a general contraction in exports. Electrica l m a ch in ery a ls o shows a s im ila r tren d in exports. Domestic production, however, has shown a significantly higher growth. Radio, televis ion a n d com m u n ica tion s ector h a s been on e of th e fa s tes t moving sectors for both produ ction a n d exports. Th ere, h owever, s eem s to h a ve occu rred a kin k in th e export in dex in with exports trajectory s ign ifica n tly s h iftin g u pwa rds. A n ega tive growth in is con s is ten t with a gen era l s lowdown in exports a n d th e reviva l cou ld b e because of the market penetration achieved in Motor vehicles a n d a u to equipments a ls o s h ow a very h igh export growth. Th is m a y, h owever, be du e to in trodu ction of n ew m odels in th e auto s ector a n d id en tifica tion of n ew m a rkets. A low ba s e m a y a ls o resulted in significantly higher export index. In th e oth er m a n u fa ctu rin g, wh ich in clu de gems a n d jewellery a con tra diction in export is observed in la s t two yea rs. Th is m a y perh a p s be due to global economic situation. 12. Th e a n a lys is of 268 item s in th e m a n u fa ctu rin g s u b grou ps in dica te th a t except in th e ba s ic m eta ls a n d electron ic con s u m er goods (ra dio, televis ion a n d communication equipments), general trend of exports appears consistent. 13. Export significantly moved upward in and suffered a contraction in Th ere wa s a s h a rp recovery in Wh ile th e con tra ction in cou ld be du e to th e globa l fa ctors, th e recovery in is perh a ps th e res u lt of a divers ifica tion of produ ct a n d cou n try com pos ition of tra de, which commenced much earlier. 8 Pa g e

9 Manufacture of food products and Beverages Manufacture of Tobacco Products Manufacture of Textiles Manufacture of wearing Apparel; Dressing and dyeing of fur Tanning and Dressing of Leather Manufacture of wood and wood products Manufacture of paper and paper products Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media Manufacture of Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel Manufacture of Chemical and chemical products Manufacture of rubber and plastic products Manufacture of other Nonmetallic Mineral Products Manufacture of Basic Metals Manufacture of Fabricated metal products, except machinery Manufacture of Machinery and equipment Manufacture of office, accounting and computing machinery Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus Manufacture of radio, television and communication equip Manufacture of medical precision and optical instruments Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers Manufacture of other transport equipment Manufacturing of furniture Annex 1- WPI Deflators Pa g e

10 Annex 2- Share of selected products in IIP at the group level (out of 1000) NIC 2 Digit Item group Weight DIPP Total IIP % Share 15 Manufacture of food products and Beverages Manufacture of Tobacco Products Manufacture of Textiles Manufacture of wearing Apparel; Dressing and dyeing of fur Tanning and Dressing of Leather Manufacture of wood and wood products Manufacture of paper and paper products Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media Manufacture of Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel Manufacture of Chemical and chemical products Manufacture of rubber and plastic products Manufacture of other Non-metallic Mineral Products Manufacture of Basic Metals Manufacture of Fabricated metal products, except machinery Manufacture of Machinery and equipment Manufacture of office, accounting and computing machinery Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus Manufacture of radio, television and communication equip Manufacture of medical precision and optical instruments Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers Manufacture of other transport equipment Manufacturing of furniture Total Pa g e

11 Annex 3 Manufacture of food products and Beverages Manufacture of Tobacco Products Manufacture of Textiles Pa g e

12 Manufacture of wearing Apparel; Dressing and dyeing of fur Tanning and Dressing of Leather Manufacture of wood and wood products Manufacture of paper and paper products Pa g e

13 Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media Manufacture of Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel Manufacture of Chemical and chemical products Pa g e Manufacture of rubber and plastic products

14 Manufacture of other Non-metallic Mineral Products Manufacture of Basic Metals Manufacture of Fabricated metal products, except machinery Pa g e Manufacture of Machinery and equipment

15 Manufacture of office, accounting and computing machinery Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus Manufacture of radio, television and communication equip Pa g e Manufacture of medical precision and optical instruments

16 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers Manufacture of other transport equipment Manufacturing of furniture Pa g e

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